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POPULATION STUDIES, November 1999, Vol. 53, N° 3
BONGAARTS, John.
The fertility impact of changes in the timing of childbearing in the developing world.
This study examines the role of tempo effects in the fertility declines of less developed countries. These effects temporarily inflate the total fertility of a population during periods when the age at childbearing declines and deflate it when childbearing is postponed. An analysis of data from the World Fertility Surveys and the Demographic and Health Surveys demonstrates that fertility trends observed in many less developed countries are likely to be distorted by changes in the timing of childbearing. In most countries women are delaying childbearing, which implies that observed fertility is lower than it would have been without tempo changes. This pattern is most clearly documented in Taiwan, where accurate birth statistics from a vital registration system make it possible to estimate the tempo components of fertility annually from 1978 to 1993. The small but unexpected rise in the total fertility of Colombia in the early 1990s is attributed to a decline in the negative tempo distortion that prevailed in the 1980s. Similar interruptions of ongoing fertility declines may occur in the future in other countries when existing negative tempo effects are removed.
(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, FERTILITY TRENDS, BIRTH SPACING).
English - pp. 277-289.
J. Bongaarts, Policy Research Division, The Population Council, One Dag Hammarksjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.
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CALVÈS, Anne-Emmanuèle.
Marginalization of African single mothers in the marriage market: Evidence from Cameroon.
Despite a growing concern over the health and socioeconomic consequences of premarital fertility in Africa, few studies have explored the effect of premarital birth on the subsequent likelihood of getting married. While some ethnographic studies have suggested that unmarried African women sometimes use childbearing as a strategy to favour or accelerate transition to marriage, this analysis of the 1991 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey shows that, overall, premarital childbearing has a strong and negative effect on a young woman's chances of first marriage. The results also reveal, however, that the effect of premarital childbearing on subsequent union varies significantly according to duration in single motherhood. While having a premarital birth makes marriage more likely in the short run, it significantly jeopardises the marriage chances of single women in the long run.
(CAMEROON, PREMARITAL BIRTHS, UNMARRIED MOTHERS, FIRST MARRIAGE).
English - pp. 291-301.
A.-E. Calvès, Département de Démographie, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7, Canada.
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KERTZER, David I.; SINGLE, Wendy; WHITE, Michael J.
Childhood mortality and quality of care among abandoned children in nineteenth-century Italy.
A great deal of scholarly attention has been devoted in recent years to the large scale abandonment of newborn babies in the European past, with special emphasis given to the staggering rates of infant mortality among the foundlings. For the most part, scholars have agreed with the foundling home officials of the past in assigning much of the blame for this excess mortality to the women who took in the foundlings as wetnurses and subsequently as foster mothers. This article takes issue with this view, based on an examination of the children abandoned at the foundling home of Bologna, Italy in the 19th century. Four cohorts of foundlings are examined -- those abandoned in 1809-10, 1829-30, 1849-50, and 1869-70 (N=3615) -- as we trace the changing pattern of infant and early childhood mortality. Longitudinal methods are used in examining the life course of these foundlings and the determinants of their mortality.
(ITALY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, ABANDONED CHILDREN, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 303-315.
D. I. Kertzer, Department of Anthropology and History, M. J. White, Department of Sociology, Brown University, Providence, RI, U.S.A.; W. Single, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, U.K.
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CHANDOLA, T.; COLEMAN, D. A.; HIORNS, R. W.
Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to "distorted" distributions.
Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show "distortions" in terms of a "bulge" in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a "bulge" in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.
(EUROPE, METHODOLOGY, FERTILITY RATE, CURVE FITTING, MODELS).
English - pp. 317-329.
T. Chandola and D. A. Coleman, Department of Applied Social Studies and Social Research, Barnett House, Wellington Square, Oxford OX1 2ER, U.K.; R. W. Hiorns, Department of Statistics, 1 South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3TG, U.K.
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MADISE, Nyovani J.; MATTHEWS, Zoë; MARGETTS, Barrie.
Heterogeneity of child nutritional status between households: A comparison of six sub-Saharan Africa countries.
Using cross-sectional data from Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, a multilevel analysis was performed to determine the extent of correlation of nutritional status between children in the same family and geographical area. Weight-for-age z-scores were used as a measure of nutritional status for children up to three years of age. The percentage of children who were under-weight ranged from 16 in Zimbabwe up to 36 in Nigeria. The effects of socioeconomic factors and individual characteristics on nutritional status between countries varied. However in all six countries, the child's age was the most important factor associated with nutritional status. A clustering effect at the household level was found in all six countries, ranging from 24% in Tanzania and Zimbabwe to 40% in Malawi. There was also a significant, but smaller, clustering effect at community level for Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia.
(AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA, CHILD NUTRITION, HOUSEHOLD, LOCAL COMMUNITIES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 331-343.
N. J. Madise, Z. Matthews, Department of Social Statistics, and B. Margetts, Institute of Human Nutrition, University of Southampton, U.K.
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RICHARDS, Eric.
An Australian map of British and Irish literacy in 1841.
This contribution to the study of the literacy transition in Britain, Ireland, and Australia also touches on the relationship between literacy and international migration. Some 20,000 emigrants arrived in Australia in 1841 and their literacy is here established at the individual level, and then related to regional origins, occupations, religion, sex, and family status in the British Isles. The new Australian data offer unusual evidence to juxtapose with the prevailing account of British and Irish literacy. The paper makes systematic comparisons of the immigrant evidence with existing literacy findings for the populations of England and Wales, of Ireland, and the colonial population of Australia in the year 1841. The results also show extraordinary similarity of rank orderings between the Australian data and the conventional sources. The results show that the immigrants were consistently more literate than the home and the receiving populations and indicate a substantial link between migration and literacy.
(AUSTRALIA, UNITED KINGDOM, IRELAND, HISTORY, IMMIGRANTS, LITERACY).
English - pp. 345-359.
E. Richards, Flinders University of South Australia, G.P.O. Box 2100, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia.
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PULLUM, Thomas W.; PERI, Andres.
A multivariate analysis of homogamy in Montevideo, Uruguay.
This paper develops multivariate models to describe homogamy or, more generally, marriage preferences, for corresponding characteristics of brides and grooms. The purpose of these models is to obtain interpretable measures of the degree of homogamy (or marriage preference) on one dimension and to adjust these measures for homogamy on other dimensions. The models are applied to a sample of marriages in Montevideo, Uruguay, with pairs of corresponding variables for the brides and grooms. The analysis estimates the unadjusted and adjusted levels of homogamy on previous marital status, age, education, religion, and location. Homogamy on location, or propinquity, is the single most important variable. Previous marital status and age describe the readiness or eligibility to marry and are associated in their effect on homogamy. Education and religion describe vertical and horizontal differentiation of marriage partners, respectively. The multivariate analysis verifies that these dimensions are largely independent of each other.
(URUGUAY, CAPITAL CITY, HOMOGAMY, MATE SELECTION, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, MODELS, METHODOLOGY).
English - pp. 361-377.
T. W. Pullum and A. Peri, Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, U.S.A.
***
POPULATION STUDIES, March 2000, Vol. 54, N° 1
KRAVDAL, Øystein.
Social inequalities in cancer survival.
Social differentials in survival from twelve common types of cancer were assessed by estimating a mixed additive-multiplicative hazard model on the basis of individual register and census data for the whole Norwegian population. The excess all-cause mortality among cancer patients compared with similar persons without a cancer diagnosis was significantly related to education, occupation, and income. Excess mortality was, on the whole, about 15% lower for men or women who had completed a post-secondary education than for those with only compulsory schooling, taking into account age, period and registered differences in tumour characteristics and stage at the time of diagnosis. The data do not provide clear indications of whether differences in host factors, such as co-morbidities and immune functions, or differences in treatment and care are primarily responsible for these inequalities in cancer survival.
(NORWAY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, CANCER, EXCESS MORTALITY, LEVELS OF EDUCATION).
English - pp. 1-18.
Ø. Kravdal, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
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BASU, Alaka Malwade.
Gender in population research: Confusing implications for health policy.
In this paper I discuss some of the health policy implications of an increasing trend in population research and in its interpretation and presentation -- a trend to "political correctness" -- defined not in the popular, often derogatory, sense, but as an ideological commitment to certain principles. For one of these commitments, that to the notion of gender equality, greater strength and legitimacy is today commonly sought by tying it to other less controversial goals such as that of better health. But straining for connections between gender equality and positive health outcomes often unduly constrains the research question, the research methods, and the interpretation of the research. When health policy seeks guidance from this research, it can receive signals which are too often incomplete, silent on the many trade-offs of specific policy measures, and, ultimately, perhaps even detrimental to the very goals of gender equity and social justice from which they are derived. Examples of all these possibilities are discussed.
(HEALTH POLICY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH).
English - pp. 19-28.
A. M. Basu, Division of Nutritional Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, U.S.A.
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BUMPASS, Larry; LU, Hsien-Hen.
Trends in cohabitation and implications for children's family contexts in the United States.
This paper documents increasing cohabitation in the United States, and the implications of this trend for the family lives of children. The stability of marriage-like relationships (including marriage and cohabitation) has decreased -- despite a constant divorce rate. Children increasingly live in cohabiting families either as a result of being born to cohabiting parents or of their mother's entry into a cohabiting union. The proportion of births to unmarried women born into cohabiting families increased from 29 to 39% in the period 1980-84 to 1990-94, accounting for almost all of the increase in unmarried childbearing. As a consequence, about two-fifths of all children spend some time in a cohabiting family, and the greater instability of families begun by cohabitation means that children are also more likely to experience family disruption. Estimates from multi-state life tables indicate the extent to which the family lives of children are spent increasingly in cohabiting families and decreasingly in married families.
(UNITED STATES, CONSENSUAL UNION, COHABITATION, FAMILY COMPOSITION, FAMILY DISINTEGRATION, CHILDREN, FAMILY LIFE).
English - pp. 29-41.
L. Bumpass and H.-H. Lu, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, U.S.A.
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MURPHY, Michael.
The evolution of cohabitation in Britain, 1960-95.
The recent rise in cohabitation in Britain is analysed using data from large-scale surveys. There are major inconsistencies between different sources, and retrospective estimates are higher than values reported at the time. Retrospective data show markedly smaller numbers of cohabitation events just before survey date. I discuss reasons for discrepancies and conclude that no "objective" measure of cohabitation exists and that comparison of different types of data requires care. I combine the data to produce a much larger data set than hitherto available. Although cohabitation prevalence increased substantially during the 1970s and 1980s, there was little change in such characteristics as duration of cohabitation, ages of those cohabiting, and whether it occurred before first marriage or ended in marriage or breakdown. However, since the late 1980s, the average length of cohabitation has increased markedly, which may indicate a qualitative change in the nature of cohabitation in Britain.
(UNITED KINGDOM, COHABITATION, ESTIMATES, DATA EVALUATION, TRENDS).
English - pp. 43-56.
M. Murphy, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, U.K.
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ZHANG, Weiguo.
Dynamics of marriage change in Chinese rural society in transition: A study of a northern Chinese village.
This analysis uses data from an intensive village study to investigate the impacts of institutional reforms on marriage in rural China. The study finds that age at marriage has been declining significantly both for men and women. The "exchange marriage" and the "mercenary marriage" have re-emerged. An increasing proportion of marriages occur between men and women in nearby villages, though there is no significant increase in village endogamy. Both bride price and dowry have increased significantly, and the ratio of value of dowry to bride price has undergone a dramatic equalization. The young, including young women, have much more decision making power regarding their marriages. Changes in marriage are the consequences of both change in the socioeconomic environment brought about by deliberate rural reforms, and strategic or tactical responses of rural Chinese to the rapidly changing context in which they live and work.
(CHINA, RURAL COMMUNITIES, AGE AT MARRIAGE, MARRIAGE CUSTOMS, TYPES OF MARRIAGE, MATE SELECTION).
English - pp. 57-69.
W. Zhang, UNFPA Training Programme in Population and Sustainable Development, University of Botswana, Private Bag 0022, Gaborone, Botswana.
zhangw@noka.ub.bw.
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SCOTT, Susan; DUNCAN, C. J.
Interacting effects of nutrition and social class differentials on fertility and infant mortality in a pre-industrial population.
Inadequate nutrition of both the mother and her offspring at each stage of its development -- before pregnancy, in the womb, in infancy and during early childhood -- played an important role in the patterns of subfertility and infant mortality in a saturated, marginal, preindustrial community. It is suggested that the three social classes had different diets but all were deficient in some essential constituents. Differences in nursing practices in the social groups contributed to differential exogenous mortality and to malnourishment and maternal depletion in the subsistence and (paradoxically) in the elite classes, producing an interacting web of effects and generating a vicious circle from which they could not escape for 150 years. Although the population apparently preferred daughters, the persistent generation effect of low birthweight girls bearing low birthweight daughters probably contributed to the steady-state conditions in this compromised community.
(HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, NUTRITION, INFANT MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, BIRTH WEIGHT).
English - pp. 71-87.
S. Scott and C. J. Duncan, School of Biological Sciences, University of Liverpool, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, U.K.
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KNODEL, John; FRIEDMAN, Jed; ANH, Truong Si; CUONG, Bui The.
Intergenerational exchanges in Vietnam: Family size, sex composition, and the location of children.
This study examines variations in intergenerational support by family size, family composition, and location of children in Vietnam. Results from two regional surveys confirm the central role of children in assisting elderly parents but relationships with family size depend on the type of support considered. Co-residence with married children varies little with family size but incidence of material support, and the numbers providing it, increases with the number of children. Non-co-resident sons and daughters differ minimally in providing material and social support. In the north, co-residence with married children is limited largely to sons while in the south more flexibility is evident. While having a son increases the chance of co-residence, having more than one son has no additional effect. Although future elderly will have smaller family sizes this is unlikely to have a major adverse impact on their well-being except possibly for northern elders without sons.
(VIET NAM, FAMILY SIZE, FAMILY COMPOSITION, SEX DISTRIBUTION, AGED, CHILDREN, LIVING CONDITIONS).
English - pp. 89-104.
J. Knodel, Population Studies Center, J. Friedman, Department of Economics, University of Michigan, U.S.A.; T. S. Anh, Institute for Economic Research, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; B. T. Cuong, Institute of Sociology, Hanoi, Vietnam.
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KAUFMAN, Carol E.
Reproductive control in apartheid South Africa.
Since its inception in 1974, the South African family planning programme has been widely believed to be linked with white fears of growing black numbers. The programme has been repeatedly attacked by detractors as a programme of social and political control. Yet, in spite of the hostile environment, black women's use of services has steadily increased. Using historical and anthropological evidence, this paper delineates the links between the social and political context of racial domination and individual fertility behaviour. It is argued that the quantitative success of the family planning programme is rooted in social and economic shifts conditioning reproductive authority and fertility decision-making. State policies of racial segregation and influx control, ethnic "homeland" politics, and labour migration of men transformed opportunities and constraints for black women and men, and altered local and household expectations of childbearing. Women came to manage their own fertility as they increasingly found themselves in precarious social and economic circumstances.
(SOUTH AFRICA, APARTHEID, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 105-114.
C. E. Kaufman, Division of American Indian and Alaska Native Programs, University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, Denver, Colorado, U.S.A.
***
POPULATION STUDIES, July 2000, Vol. 54, N° 2
REHER, David S.; SANZ-GIMENO, Alberto.
Mortality and economic development over the course of modernization: An analysis of short-run fluctuations in Spain, 1850-1990.
Distributed lag models are used to explore the issue of the importance of economic factors for demographic performance over the course of the demographic and economic modernization of Spain. Mortality indicators are generated by age, sex, and cause and are assessed in terms of shifts in Gross Domestic Product. During the pre-transitional period, links between mortality and economic performance were simultaneous and rather weak but in the expected direction, declining to near 0 by the beginning of the 20th century. Afterwards the importance of economic shifts for mortality fluctuations increased dramatically and delayed effects began to predominate, only disappearing after 1950. The paper explains the increase in the importance of economic factors and the change in the lag structure in terms of the greater economic volatility of the 1915-1950 period, the progressive implantation of more efficient public health systems and their sensitivity to economic fluctuations, and improving levels of nutrition and general health.
(SPAIN, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, MORTALITY TRENDS, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS).
English - pp. 135-152.
D. S. Reher and A. Sanz-Gimeno, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain.
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NOKOLA, Veijo; TIMÆUS, Ian M.; SIISKONEN, Harri.
Mortality transition in the Ovamboland region of Namibia, 1930-1990.
Few long-term statistical series exist that can document the mortality transition in Africa. This paper uses data from the parish registers of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Namibia to study mortality in Ovamboland between 1930 and 1990. The paper identifies significant discontinuities and reversals in the trend in mortality. Much of the mortality transition occurred in a rapid breakthrough concentrated between the early 1950s and early 1960s. Adult mortality fell more than existing model life tables would predict and the pattern of relatively high early-age mortality typical of modern Africa emerged only at this time. While a range of developments in Ovamboland contributed to the overall decline in mortality, the most important factor was the establishment, by the Finnish Mission, of a Western system of health care. In Ovamboland, the drive to "good health at low cost" was articulated not through political institutions but through the church.
(NAMIBIA, REGIONS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, MORTALITY DECLINE, RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS, SOCIAL ORGANIZATION).
English - pp. 153-167.
V. Nokola, Survey Research Unit, Statistics Finland, Finland; I. M. Timæus, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, U.K.; H. Siiskonen, Department of History, University of Joensuu, Joensuu, Finland.
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DOBLHAMMER, Gabriele.
Reproductive history and mortality later in life: A comparative study of England and Wales and Austria.
Does a woman's reproductive history influence her life span? This study explores the question with data from the contemporary female populations of England and Wales and Austria. It is the first comparative study to investigate the relationship between fertility and mortality late in life. We find similar patterns and age-specific trends of excess mortality in both populations: parity significantly influences longevity, as do both an early and a late birth. These differences in longevity are not explained by differences in educational or family status. The impact of a woman's reproductive history on her life span is small, however, compared to the influence of her level of education or family status.
(ENGLAND, WALES, AUSTRIA, FEMALE MORTALITY, AGED, LIFE SPAN, FERTILITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 169-176.
G. Doblhammer, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Str. 114, 18057 Rostock, Germany.
doblhammer@demogr.mpg.de.
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HINDE, Andrew; MTURI, Akim J.
Recent trends in Tanzanian fertility.
This paper provides an assessment of the nature and magnitude of Tanzania's recent fertility decline, using robust methods for the identification of fertility trends. A decline in Tanzanian fertility began some time in the late 1970s or early 1980s. The pattern of decline exhibits similarities to patterns identified some years ago in Zimbabwe and Kenya. The decline has been especially marked in urban areas. It has been accompanied by a rapid rise in contraceptive prevalence from the very low levels before 1990 to just under 20% of currently married women of reproductive age. Although falling marital fertility associated with a rise in contraceptive use is the main contributor to the decline in fertility, a rise in the average age at marriage has also made a (smaller) contribution, as has the AIDS epidemic. The fact that fertility is declining in Tanzania raises questions about the social and economic requirements for fertility transitions to begin in sub-Saharan Africa.
(TANZANIA, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE).
English - pp. 177-191.
A. Hinde, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, U.K.; A. J. Mturi, Department of Statistics and Demography, National University of Lesotho, Lesotho.
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GRUNDY, Emily.
Co-residence of mid-life children with their elderly parents in England and Wales: Changes between 1981 and 1991.
It is known that there have been large declines in the proportion of elderly people living in intergenerational households. Much less is known about trends in the proportion of adult children living with elderly parents. Here I show a large decline between 1981 and 1991 in the proportion of mid-life adults living with an elderly parent or parent-in-law in England and Wales. Declines in co-residence were higher among more advantaged groups so that the characteristics of intergenerational households were less favourable in 1991 than in 1981. Analysis of another data set, including information on the survival of parents, showed that associations between co-variates and co-residence are similar in models applied to all mid-life adults and only to those with a living parent. These changes suggest a continuing trend towards residential independence as a preferred option, with those unable to attain or maintain this coming to represent a more disadvantaged group.
(ENGLAND, WALES, AGED, PARENTS, CHILDREN, COHABITATION, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION).
English - pp. 193-206.
E. Grundy, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1B 3DP, U.K.
emily.grundy@lshtm.ac.uk.
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REES, Philip; BELL, Martin; DUKE-WILLIAMS, Oliver; BLAKE, Marcus.
Problems and solutions in the measurement of migration intensities: Australia and Britain compared.
The differences in internal mobility between national populations are large and complex in origin. In studying them we must use comparable indicators. This paper discusses how measures of migration intensity at the national level should be constructed, drawing on analyses of residential mobility in Australia and Britain. We argue for the tailoring of intensity measures to observation plan and to age-time plan, and for removing the effects of mortality and external migration on census-based measures. We propose simple estimation of infant migrants, a standard stopping-age in calculating gross measures of migration, and argue for the use of a common population for computing age-standardized measures of migration and a common mortality schedule for computing migration expectancies. We conclude with recommendations for developing comparable cross-national measures of migration intensity.
(UNITED KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, INTERNAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION MEASUREMENT, METHODOLOGY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 207-222.
P. Rees and O. Duke-Williams, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, U.K.; M. Bell, Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies, and M. Blake, Key Centre for Social Applications of Geographic Information Systems (GISCA), University of Adelaide, Adelaide, S.A. 5005, Australia.
p.rees@geog.leeds.ac.uk;
martin.bell@adelaide.edu.au;
o.duke-williams@geog.leeds.ac.uk;
mblake@gisca.adelaide.edu.au.
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KOHLER, Hans-Peter.
Social interactions and fluctuations in birth rates.
Fluctuations in birth rates in developed countries have been considerably less regular than many explanatory theories suggest. This paper argues that social interaction, i.e., the dependence of individuals' fertility decisions on the fertility behaviour of other population members, is relevant even in developed countries. A formal model for investigating the static and dynamic consequences of social interaction for fertility is developed, and its aggregate implications are tested using a Markov switching regression model. The findings show that social interaction can lead to fluctuations in birth rates that are swift and difficult to foresee, and that these fluctuations are likely to be asymmetric: spells of low fertility have a considerably higher persistence than spells of high fertility. The paper suggests that high birth rates are likely to be followed by spells of low fertility. Transitions from low to high fertility occur at a substantially lower rate than transitions in the opposite direction.
(BIRTH RATE, TRENDS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, MODELS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR).
English - pp. 223-237.
H.-P. Kohler, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Str. 114, 18057 Rostock, Germany.
kohler@demogr.mpg.de.
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