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JOURNAL OF BIOSOCIAL SCIENCE, January 1999, Vol. 31, N? 1

SELLEN, Daniel W.; MACE, Ruth.

A phylogenetic analysis of the relationship between sub-adult mortality and mode of subsistence.

The hypothesis that measures of sub-adult mortality rates in natural fertility populations are associated with subsistence practices in a selected cross-cultural sample (n=39) was tested. After controlling for both distance from the equator and the general likelihood of cultural similarities between genetically closely related cultures using phylogenetic comparative methods, it was found that dependence on extractive modes of subsistence (hunting, gathering and fishing) was a significant positive correlate of total child mortality (15q0). Both increases in dependence on foraging and permanent settlement were associated with increases in child mortality between pairs of historically related cultures. The results indicated little association between infant mortality (1q0) and either dependence on foraging or settlement.

(INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, POPULATION GENETICS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, CULTURE, MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE).

English ? pp. 1-16.

D. W. Sellen, Department of Anthropology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30324, U.S.A.; R. Mace, Department of Anthropology, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, U.K.

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RAZZAQUE, Abdur.

Preference for children and subsequent fertility in Matlab: Does wife-husband agreement matter?

This study examines wife-husband preference for children and subsequent fertility for a period of 5 years in the treatment and comparison areas of Matlab, Bangladesh. The two data sets used were: the In-depth Survey (1984) and the Demographic Surveillance System (1984-89). In the case of wives' preferences for children, subsequent childbearing was 13.8% higher than desired in the treatment area and 44.7% higher than desired in the comparison area. After controlling for all variables in the model, the likelihood of giving birth was 1?78 times higher for wives who wanted no more children, but whose husbands did want more, compared with couples where neither husband nor wife wanted more children. For couples where the wife wanted more, but the husband did not want more children, the likelihood of giving birth was 0.63 times that of couples where both the husband and wife wanted more children. This finding suggests that to enhance the decline in fertility in these two areas of Matlab, it will be necessary to motivate both wives and husbands to cease childbearing.

(BANGLADESH, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, DECISION MAKING, COUPLE).

English ? pp. 17-28.

A. Razzaque, Population Studies Centre, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, GPO Box-128, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.

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NATH, Dilip C.; LAND, Kenneth C.; GOSWAMI, Giti.

Effects of the status of women on the first-birth interval in Indian urban society.

The status of women, which is relative and multidimensional, has an important bearing on any long-term reduction in fertility. In Indian society, where cohabitation and childbearing are socially sanctioned only after marriage, the length of the first-birth interval affects the completed family size by influencing the spacing and childbearing pattern of a family. This study examines the influence of certain aspects of the status of married women - education, employment, role in family decision making, and age at marriage - along with three socioeconomic variables - per capita income of the family, social position of the household, and the caste system - on the duration of the first-birth interval in an urban Hindu society of the north-east Indian state of Assam. The data were analysed by applying life table and hazard regression techniques. The results indicate that a female's age at marriage, education, current age, role in decision making, and the per capita income of the household are the main covariates that strongly influence the length of the first-birth interval of Hindu females of urban Assam. Of all the covariates studied, a female's education appears to be a key mediating factor, through its influence on her probability of employment outside the home and thereby an earned income and on her role in family decision making. Unlike other Indian communities, the effect of the caste system does not have a significant effect on first-birth timing in this urban Hindu society.

(INDIA, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, WOMEN?S STATUS, FIRST BIRTH INTERVAL, EDUCATION OF WOMEN).

English ? pp. 55-69.

D. C. Nath, K. C. Land, Department of Sociology, Duke University, NC 27708-0088, U.S.A.; G. Goswami, Department of Statistics, Pandu College, Assam, India.

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PETERSON, Sara Ann.

Marriage structure and contraception in Niger.

Analysis of the 1992 Niger Demographic and Health Survey showed that although roughly two-thirds of both polygamous and monogamous women approve of birth control, polygamous wives are less likely than monogamous wives to discuss family size or birth control with their husband or to plan on using birth control. The study suggests that characteristics of polygamous couples have caused polygamous women to be more resistant to birth control use than monogamous women. The polygamous women tended to be married to older men who had not gone to primary school and who desired more children than monogamous husbands. The influence of marital structure is not significantly associated with intention to use birth control when the husband's age and the wife's ideal number of children were controlled for in the multivariate logistic regression model suggesting that background social factors may be more influential. In fact, educational level and age at first marriage were significantly associated with attitudes towards birth control and also with marital structure.

(NIGER, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE, POLYGAMY, DECISION MAKING, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS).

English ? pp. 93-104.

S. A. Peterson, Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California, San Francisco, U.S.A.

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ADDAI, Isaac.

Ethnicity and contraceptive use in sub-Saharan Africa: The case of Ghana.

Using a sub-sample of ever-married women from the 1993 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS), this study examines differentials in contraceptive use in six cultural groups: Ga-Adangbe, Twi, Fante/other Akans, Ewe, Guan/others and Mole-Dagbani. Multivariate analysis is used to explore whether reported ethnic differentials in contraceptive use can be attributed to ethnicity or to other characteristics that distinguish the ethnic groups. Overall, the findings are generally more consistent with the 'characteristics' hypothesis, because contraceptive use differentials by ethnic group is accounted for by differences in socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of these women. However, for the Fante/other Akans, even after the necessary controls, ethnicity continued to emerge as a significant determinant of contraceptive use. Programmatic implications of these results are discussed.

(GHANA, ETHNICITY, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS).

English ? pp. 105-120.

I. Addai, Department of Social Sciences, Lansing Community College, Lansing, Michigan, U.S.A.

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HUSSAIN, R.; BITTLES, A. H.

Consanguineous marriage and differentials in age at marriage, contraceptive use and fertility in Pakistan.

Fertility rates in Pakistan have remained consistently high over the past three decades. While numerous studies have examined sociodemographic determinants, the role of biological factors, and particularly consanguinity, has received little attention, even though marriage between close biological relatives continues to be the norm in Pakistan. Reproductive behaviour among women in consanguineous (first cousin) and non-consanguineous unions was compared, using data from a 1995 study of multi-ethnic communities in Karachi and the 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic & Health Survey (PDHS). The results show that, although female age at first marriage has been gradually rising in both study samples, women in consanguineous unions married at younger ages and were less likely to use modern contraceptive methods. In the Karachi sample, women in first cousin unions experienced a higher mean number of pregnancies and also reported a higher mean number of children ever born (CEB). However, their mean number of surviving children did not differ from those born to women in non-consanguineous unions, implying higher prenatal and/or postnatal losses in couples related as first cousins. On the other hand, the PDHS showed both lower CEB values for women in consanguineous marriages and a lower number of surviving children. Given the continuing popularity of consanguineous marriage, these findings have important implications for future fertility reduction in Pakistan.

(PAKISTAN, CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGE, AGE AT MARRIAGE, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE).

English ? pp. 121-138.

R. Hussain, University of Wollongong, Canberra, Australia; A. H. Bittles, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia.

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JOURNAL OF BIOSOCIAL SCIENCE, April 1999, Vol. 31, N? 2

HOTCHKISS, David R.; MAGNANI, Robert J.; ROUS, Jeffrey J.; AZELMAT, Mustapha; MROZ, Thomas A.; HEIKEL, Jaffar.

The effects of maternal-child health service utilization on subsequent contraceptive use in Morocco.

There are a number of reasons for anticipating that contact by women in developing country settings with modern maternal-child health (MCH) services will lead to increased use of family planning services. Indeed, the expectation of such a relationship underlies the integrated service delivery strategy that has been adopted on a more or less global basis. However, the available empirical evidence in support of this proposition is inconclusive. This study re-examines this issue in Morocco. Household survey data and data on the supply environment for health and family planning services gathered in 1992 are analysed in the study. A full-information maximum likelihood estimator is used to control for the possible endogeneity of health care and contraceptive choices. The findings indicate a substantial and apparently causal relationship between the intensity of MCH service use and subsequent contraceptive use. Policy simulations indicate that sizeable increases in contraceptive prevalence might be realized by increasing the coverage and intensity of use of MCH services.

(MOROCCO, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, HEALTH SERVICES, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES).

English - pp. 145-165.

D. R. Hotchkiss, R. J. Magnani, Tulane University Medical Center, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Department of International Health and Development, New Orleans, LA, U.S.A.; J. J. Rous, University of North Texas, Department of Economics, Denton, TX, U.S.A.; M. Azelmat, J. Heikel, Minist?re de la Sant? Publique, Service des ?tudes et de l'Information Sanitaire, Rabat, Morocco; T. A. Mroz, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Economics and Carolina Population Center, Chapel Hill, NC, U.S.A.

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CLEGG, E. J.

Probabilities of marriage in two outer hebridean islands, 1861-1990.

A study has been made of the probabilities of marriage of females and males aged 15-49 (either as a whole or in 5-year age groups) in two Outer Hebridean islands, Harris and Barra. The results were compared with ages of marriage and with the frequencies of permanent celibacy. The marriages took place between 1861 and 1990.

Median ages of marriage rose to maxima in the 1930s and 1940s, then fell steeply, levelling out latterly. Permanent celibacy was consistently high among females, but rose from much lower levels in males to maxima in the 1970s and 1980s. It is concluded that in these populations age at marriage and the extent of permanent celibacy are largely independent of one another.

In both islands the overall probabilities of females marrying fell until the 1920s, and then rose. The last decades showed stability (Barra) and a fall (Harris). Males showed only slight falls to about 1910; data were absent for between 1911 and 1960, but subsequently there was little rise in probability.

These overall changes seemed to be associated with reciprocal variations in probabilities in the younger and older age groups. Declining overall probabilities were associated with declines in younger and increases in older age-group probabilities, and vice versa.

Non-parametric correlations between median ages of marriage and probability of marriage were negative and generally significant for the 15-19 age group. Among the older age groups coefficients were generally positive.

There was some evidence of an association between probability of marriage and sex ratio in any group of potential mates. The effect appeared more marked among 15- to 19-year-old females.

Local factors which might explain at least part of the decline in nuptiality for the greater part of the period under study include the decline in the fishing industry and the 'land hunger' which existed until the late 1920s. This decline is interpreted as a 'Malthusian' response to economic and social conditions, but it coexisted with a 'neo-Malthusian' strategy, in the shape of declining marital fertility. The 'Malthusian' strategy seems to have been largely abandoned around the 1950s, but it may have reappeared during the 1980s.

(UNITED KINGDOM, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, NUPTIALITY RATES, AGE AT MARRIAGE, PERMANENT CELIBACY, AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION, FERTILITY DECLINE).

English - pp. 167-193.

E. J. Clegg, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Marischal College, University of Aberdeen, AB9 1AS, U.K.

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BALL, Helen L.; HILL, Catherine M.

Insurance ovulation, embryo mortality and twinning.

The 'insurance ova' hypothesis (Anderson, 1990) views dizygotic twinning as a by-product of selection for multiple ovulation which sometimes - in error - results in the birth of twins. From this viewpoint, polyovulation is a mechanism which reduces the risks of fertilization failure or embryo defect/mortality. If DZ twin births are a 'side-effect' of a mechanism which compensates for defective embryos one might predict that embryo defect rates and twinning rates will covary. This prediction is tested using national-level data on twinning rates and rates of trisomy-21 (Down's syndrome), and a strong positive correlation is found, even when controlling for maternal age. One suggestion that follows from this finding is that intra- and interpopulation variation in both twinning rates and Down's syndrome rates may result, in part, from individual variation in pre-implantation rejection of embryos in the very early stages of pregnancy. In this paper it is proposed that the 'insurance ova' explanation for twinning in humans could be expanded to incorporate a model of rejection of anomalous embryos, be they anomalies of number or type. Variation in the efficiency of an embryo rejection mechanism, combined with variation in frequency of polyovulation, would have consequences for individual reproductive success.

(OVULATION, DIZYGOTIC TWINS, FOETAL DEATH, CONGENITAL ABNORMALITIES, REPRODUCTION).

English - pp. 245-255.

H. L. Ball and C. M. Hill, Department of Anthropology and University College, Stockton, University of Durham, 43 Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HN, U.K.

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GRAHAM, Maureen J.; LARSEN, Ulla; XU, Xiping.

Secular trend in age at menarche in China: A case study of two rural counties in Anhui Province.

There is increasing evidence that age at menarche has decreased in Europe and the United States during the last century and in Japan over the last several decades. Data from a community-based survey conducted in two rural counties of Anhui Province in China indicate a similar, downward secular trend in age at menarche for Chinese women. The present study shows the mean age at menarche decreased by 2?8 years, from 16?5 to 13?7, over an approximate 40-year time interval. This rapid decrease in age at menarche may partly be due to better nutrition and living standards reflected by the improved socioeconomic standards experienced in China over the past few decades. To test this hypothesis, a number of determinants of age at menarche were assessed; year of birth, literacy status, county of residence, amount of physical labour, general health status, pesticide exposure before age at menarche, and drinking water source were all found to be associated with age at menarche.

(CHINA, RURAL COMMUNITIES, AGE AT MENARCHE, TRENDS).

English - pp. 257-267.

M. J. Graham and X. Xu, Department of Environmental Health, U. Larsen, Department of Population & International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, U.S.A.

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JOURNAL OF BIOSOCIAL SCIENCE, July 1999, Vol. 31, N? 3

TAYLOR, H. William; V?ZQUEZ-GEFFROY, Margaret; SAMUELS, Steven J.; TAYLOR, Donna M.

Continuously recorded suckling behaviour and its effect on lactational amenorrhoea.

The hypothesis that the month-specific rate of return to ovarian cyclicity after childbirth is causally related to suckling pattern was tested for a population of New Mexican women recruited within the service area of New Mexico Highlands University and for a nationwide USA subpopulation of women recruited through membership of the Couple to Couple League (CCL). Survival analysis for time-dependent covariates was used, and significant predictors of the first postpartum menses were found. Important differences were detected in the suckling pattern for the two groups and a 5:2 differential was found in their respective rates of menstrual cycle recovery. Although the two groups were comparable perinatally, daily and time-windowed breast-feeding performance fell off at twice the rate for the New Mexico population when contrasted with the CCL sample. For both populations, the introduction of solid feeds was a strong and significant predictor of returning menstrual cyclicity, independent of suckling pattern.

(UNITED STATES, POST-PARTUM AMENORRHOEA, FECUNDABILITY, DURATION OF LACTATION, BREAST FEEDING, WEANING, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).

English - pp. 289-310.

H. W. Taylor, M. V?zquez-Geffroy and D. M. Taylor, College of Arts and Sciences, New Mexico Highlands University, Las Vegas, NM, U.S.A.; S. J. Samuels, School of Reproductive Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, U.S.A.

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STEELE, Fiona; EL-ZAHRAA M. M. GEEL, Fatma.

The impact of family planning supply factors on unmet need in rural Egypt, 1988-1989.

This paper examines the reasons for the high level of unmet need for contraception in rural Egypt, using data from the individual survey and service availability module of the 1988-89 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey. Two broad sets of potential factors are considered: characteristics of a woman which influence her desire for children and thus her propensity to use contraception, and factors relating to the family planning service environment in which she lives. The results from a multivariate analysis show that certain individual characteristics, such as family composition and education, have a strong impact on the level of contraceptive use and on the proportion of total demand for spacing or limiting childbearing that is met by use of family planning. Unmet need, however, remains fairly constant across demographic and socioeconomic subgroups of the population. The largest variations in unmet need are regional, but elements of the family planning services, namely the provision of a community-based nurse who distributes family planning and female doctors at clinics, also play an important role.

(EGYPT, RURAL POPULATION, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, SUPPLY AND DEMAND, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS).

English - pp. 311-326.

F. Steele, Department of Statistics, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, U.K.; F. El-Zahraa M. M. Geel, Programmatic Research Council, National Population Council, Cornish El Nil, El Maadi, Box 1036, Cairo, Egypt.

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KAMAL, Nashid; SLOGGETT, Andrew; CLELAND, John G.

Area variations in use of modern contraception in rural Bangladesh: A multilevel analysis.

This study in Bangladesh found that inter-cluster variation in the use of modern reversible methods of contraception was significantly attributable to the educational levels of the female family planning workers working in the clusters. Women belonging to clusters served by educated workers had a higher probability of being contraceptive users than those whose workers had only completed primary education. At the household level, important determinants of use were socioeconomic status and religion. At the individual level, the woman being the wife of the household head and having some education were positively related to her being a user. The model also found that inter-household variation was significantly greater than inter-cluster variation. Finally, the study concludes that after controlling for various covariates at all three levels, the clusters do not have significantly different levels of use of modern reversible methods of contraception. There are, however, some special areas where contraceptive use is dramatically low, and these contribute significantly to the observed inter-cluster variation.

(BANGLADESH, RURAL POPULATION, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE, FAMILY PLANNING PERSONNEL, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS).

English - pp. 327-341.

N. Kamal, Department of Population-Environment, Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB), Baridhara, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh; A. Sloggett and J. G. Cleland, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, U.K.

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ALI, Mohamed; CLELAND, John.

Determinants of contraceptive discontinuation in six developing countries.

This analysis investigates the determinants of contraceptive discontinuation in six developing countries, using data from Phase I surveys of the DHS programme. Cumulative probabilities of discontinuation at 24 months for reasons other than the desire for another child were examined. By this time, typically about 40% of couples have stopped use and most are subsequently at risk of an unwanted conception. Discontinuation of IUD use was found to be less common than for other methods, partly perhaps because cessation of use requires a deliberate decision to have the device removed.

The most important results are negative ones. Neither the schooling of couples nor their type of residence exerted appreciable influence on discontinuation. The policy and programme implications are discussed. Prior use of a method, fertility preferences and the related demographic factors of age and family size emerged as pervasive predictors of discontinuation.

(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, CONTRACEPTIVE CONTINUATION, CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS).

English - pp. 343-360.

M. Ali and J. Cleland, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 50 Bedford Square, London WC1B 3DP, U.K.

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OTOR, Samuel C. J.; PANDEY, Arvind.

Adolescent transition to coitus and premarital childbearing in Sudan: A biosocial context.

This paper examines the biosocial basis of premarital sexual and reproductive behaviour among women in Sudan. It applies Udry's biosocial perspective, which attempts to reconcile the biological and sociological models of premarital sexual and reproductive behaviour. World Fertility Survey (WFS) data were used to study premarital first motherhood. Early puberty was found to be paramount in determining childbearing in a separate biological model, but also in a biosocial model constructed to take account of social controls. This finding suggests that social controls do not influence the biological predisposition to premarital sexual behaviour. However, given the limitations of the WFS data, conclusive evidence must await a more appropriately designed study of reproductive behaviour in Sudan.

(SUDAN, ADOLESCENTS, WOMEN, PREMARITAL SEX BEHAVIOUR, PREMARITAL BIRTHS, PUBERTY).

English - pp. 361-374.

S. C. J. Otor, Department of Environmental Foundation, Kenyatta University, PO Box 43844, Nairobi, Kenya; A. Pandey, International Institute for Population Sciences, Govandi Station Road, Deonar, Mumbai 400 088, India.

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BINKA, Fred N.; NGOM, Pierre; PHILLIPS, James F.; ADAZU, Kubaje; MACLEOD, Bruce B.

Assessing population dynamics in a rural African society: The Navrongo demographic surveillance system.

In 1993, the Navrongo Health Research Centre launched a new demographic research system for monitoring the impact of health service interventions in a rural district of northern Ghana. The Navrongo Demographic Surveillance System uses automated software generation procedures that greatly simplify the preparation of complex database management systems. This paper reviews the Navrongo model for data collection, as well as features of the Navrongo system that have led to its replication in other health research projects requiring individual-level longitudinal demographic data. Demographic research results for the first 2 years of system operation are indicative of a pretransitional rural society with high fertility, exceedingly high mortality risks, and pronounced seasonal out-migration.

(GHANA, RURAL AREAS, HEALTH SERVICES, DATA COLLECTION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES).

English - pp. 375-391.

F. N. Binka, P. Ngom, K. Adazu, Navrongo Health Research Centre, Ministry of Health, Navrongo, Upper East Region, Ghana; J. F. Phillips, Policy Research Division, Population Council, New York, NY, U.S.A.; B. B. MacLeod, Department of Computer Science, University of Southern Maine, Portland, Maine, U.S.A.

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KINFU, A. Yohannes.

Child undernutrition in war-torn society: The Ethiopian experience.

Using data from a cross-sectional nutrition survey conducted in rural Ethiopia between March and April 1992, roughly a year after the end of one of the longest civil wars in modern human history, this study attempts to document the magnitude and correlates of childhood undernutrition in Ethiopia. Findings from the study reveal that, at the time of the survey, 59% of children in the country were exposed to long-term or chronic undernutrition (stunted); about 4% were suffering from acute problems (wasted); and about the same proportion were both stunted and wasted. Less than a third of the country's children had normal growth. The logistic-binomial regression results demonstrated the existence of significant clustering of risks of undernutrition within areas of residence and notable differentials by age of child, duration of breast-feeding, age at introduction of supplementary foods and number of under-five siblings. Significant variations were also noted by age of household head, per capita land holding, religious affiliation and prevalence of endemic diseases in an area.

(ETHIOPIA, RURAL AREAS, MALNUTRITION, WAR, CHILD NUTRITION, CHILD DEVELOPMENT).

English - pp. 403-418.

A. Y. Kinfu, Demography Programme, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

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