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ZEITSCHRIFT F?R BEV?LKERUNGSWISSENSCHAFT, 1998 ? Vol. 23, N?. 2
LUTZ, Wolfgang; SCHERBOV, Sergei.
Probabilistic population projections for Germany [Probabilistische Bev?lkerungsprognosen f?r Deutschland].
As with all social developments, Germany's future demographic development is also affected by considerable uncertainties. For future fertility, mortality and migration only rough estimates can be made, but no exact predictions. Up to now this has been taken into consideration by calculating alternative variants and scenarios, but the expected probability of the different developments remains open. The estimates of such "risks"are important for planning, however, especially where large sums of money are involved (such as the reform of old age pensions). Here the approach developed by Lutz, Sanderson and Scherbov (1996), an expert based probabilistic population forecast, has been applied to Germany for the first time. This approach not only has the advantage of supplying additional information regarding the probability of alternative trends, it also allows for a synopsis of numerous projections' of various German institutes using a common distribution. The assumed probability distributions for fertility, mortality and migration used here include practically all alternative assumptions of the various institutions. As to be expected, the results of these probabilistic forecasts do not differ greatly from those of other institutes, specifically with regard to the most probable path of development, Yet they also supply quantitative information concerning the areas of uncertainty that affect the development of the various demographic variables. There is an 80% probability that the population of Germany in the year 2050 will be lower than it is today. The future number of younger persons is much more uncertain than that of older persons. With regard to the future development of the share of persons over 60 years of age, the course of this trend in the next few decades. has already been so strongly determined by the present age structure, that even the interval that includes 95% of all cases is still extremely narrow for the year 2030. The probability of a further increase of this share from 21% to over 30% is therefore almost certain.
(GERMANY, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY).
German - pp.83-109.
W. Luts, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria, and S. Scherbov, University of Groningen, Population Research Center, P.O. Box 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands.
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IMHOF, Arthur E.
Historical demography II: Answering the challenge of new media technologies [Historische Demographie II: Eine Antwort auf die Herausforderung durch die neuen Medialen Technologien].
A prerequisite of "Historical Demography II" is " Historical Demography I". The latter program is a CD-ROM conceived from the start as an image based web presentation and used to impressively demonstrate demographycially-relevant events or conditions in the areas of pregnancy and birth, human longevity, illnesses and accidents, wars and crimes, dying and death. The discipline appears to be especially suited to taking up the challenges of new media technologies that are thundering towards us. Under discussion here are new, mainly global ways of making attractive presentations as well as the first realisable chances for interdisciplinary co-operation across all borders.
(HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, DOCUMENTATION).
German ? pp. 111-122.
A. E. Imhof, Freie Universit?t Berlin, Fachbereich Geschichtswissenschaften, Habelschwerdter Allee 45, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
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KLEIN, Thomas.
The development of mate selection in terms of education [Entwicklung und Determinanten der bildungsbezogenen Partnerwahl].
The report analyses the development of homogamy in terms of education and the determinants of education-related mate selection, from the viewpoint of how far the relevance of social control mechanisms of mate selection goes beyond the numeric of marriage opportunities. Social control mechanisms can also be termed marriage barriers. Unlike all other analyses of education-related homogamy thus far, this report uses a longitudinal life course perspective in which the numeric of marriage opportunities is controlled methodically. This has become possible with the use of a new analysis method (Klein 1996) that has been developed further in this report. In the course of this further development, the report shows that the influence of a third variable on marriage barriers can be formalised and interpreted as an interaction effect. When the determinants are summed up, the report shows that specifically, an increasing age of the male, membership in a younger generation and a father with a baccalaureate, contribute to lower marriage barriers between persons with and without baccalaureate.
(MATE SELECTION, HOMOGAMY, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, METHODOLOGY).
German - pp.123-149.
T. Klein, Institut f?r Soziologie, Universt?t Heidelberg, Sandgasse 9, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany.
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BABKA VON GOSTOMSKI, Christian.
Do children guarantee happy marriages? An empirical analysis using the Mannheim divorce survey of the role of children as a factor in determining the risks of divorce [Machen Kinder Ehen gl?cklich? Eine empirische Untersuchung mit der Mannheimer Scheidungsstudie zum Einfluss von Kindern auf das Ehescheidungsrisiko].
Using data from the 1996 Mannheim divorce survey and drawing on the theories of Gary S. Becker and Ulrich Beck, this paper analyses the role of children as a factor in determining risks of divorce. Bivariate comparisons show that married couples without common children have more factors related to a high risk of divorce than couples with common children. Following up on previous German studies using event history modelling, this paper presents multivariate models for western and eastern Germany. In western Germany, when the child's relationship to the parents is specified, only the presence of a common child has a positive effect on marriage stability. Other factors related to a higher risk of divorce can be determined for western Germany, such as intergenerational transmission of divorce risks, partner's previous divorce experience, residence in a large town, differences in educational levels between partners, lack of religious affiliation, husband's lack of vocational training, membership in a younger marriage cohort, and low age at marriage, as well as not owning a home together, and husband not working full-time with wife working full-time. In eastern Germany most of these factors point in the same directions as in the west.
(GERMANY, DIVORCE, CHILDLESS COUPLES, OWN CHILDREN DATA).
German - pp.151-177.
C. Babka Von Gostomski, Freie Universit?t Berlin, Institut f?r Kleinkindp?dagogik, K?nigin-Luise-Strasse 47, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
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DORBRITZ, J?rgen.
Fertility trends in low-fertility-countries and fertility scenario in Germany [Trends der Geburtenh?ufigkeit in Niedrig-Fertilit?ts-L?ndern und Szenarien der Familienbildung in Deutschland].
An experts conference which had been initiated by the UN Population Division with the objective to discuss the future fertility trends in countries with a low birth-rate (summarised birth-rate <2.1) gave rise to the debate on this topic. This was carried out on the basis that the optimistic assumptions of the revision of the World Population Prospects of 1996 frequently caused critique. The present article serves as a revision of the "Expert group meeting on below-replacement fertility". Based on the description of the trends in Low-Fertiliy-Countries, the strategy in respect of the formation of scenarios for the revision in 1998 are initially described, first results are presented and the scenarios developed in Germany are critically discussed. Although the fertility assumptions for 1998 seem to be more plausible, since slight increases in fertility are alleged, they still cause critique from the point of view of the demographic situation in Germany due to the still extraordinary optimistic orientation. Thus, under the utilisation of the theoretical model of the change of the institution "Marriage/family" own scenarios are compared with the assumptions of the UN Population Division. These scenarios are initially described as general trends in order to be quantified subsequently to the analysis of the demographic situation in Germany. Neither the longterm trend of birth-rates with an establishment of the behaviour pattern "small family" nor the parity-specific distribution of births upon an increasing childlessness nor the increase in age with regard to the formation of a family or the decreasing tendency to marry give rise to the assumption that in Germany an increase in the average number of children could take place in the near future. Consistently low to slightly decreasing summarised birth-rates are expected. A reduction will occur if the childlessness among the age-classes of the 70s and 80s rises from presently one fourth to one third.
(GERMANY, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, LOW FERTILITY ZONE, FERTILITY TRENDS).
German - pp.179-210.
J. Dorbritz, Bundesintitut f?r Bev?lkerungsforschung, Postfach 5528, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany.
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