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JINKO MONDAI KENKYU, 1999, Vol. 55, N? 1

FUKUDA, Nobutaka.

Determinants of the timing of first childbearing in contemporary Japan: Socio-economic or attitudinal factors?

Like other industrialised countries, Japan has recently displayed a delay in the timing of first and subsequent births after marriage. Causes of this phenomenon as it occurs in western countries have borne substantial examination, and it is now argued that socio-economic and attitudinal factors have a bearing on a rise in the age of women having children. Little attempt, however, has been made to examine what brought about this postponement of childbearing in Japan. In this article, we will investigate whether socio-economic and ideational factors do indeed affect the timing of first birth after marriage in Japan.

As is well known, the Japanese total fertility rate (TFR) has markedly declined over the past two decades, reaching the below replacement level. Our investigation suggests that this change is to a considerable extent attributable to a delay in the tempo of childbearing after marriage. The analysis of the timing of fertility is, therefore, essential to the full understanding of recent fertility patterns in Japan. Next, while focusing on socio-economic and attitudinal spheres in Japan, we will consider factors causing this change in the timing of births after marriage. Finally, we will examine determinants of the timing of first birth by employing the proportional hazard analysis. From these results, we could conclude that the recent change in the timing of births in Japan is caused by socio-economic rather than ideational factors.

(JAPAN, FIRST BIRTH, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, BIRTH SPACING).

Japanese ? pp. 1-20.

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