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NOTAS DE POBLACI?N, 1998, Vol. 26, N? 67-68

SCHKOLNIK, Susana; CHACKIEL, Juan.

Latin America: Demographic transition in less developed sectors [Am?rica Latina: la transici?n demogr?fica en sectores rezagados].

Historically, demographic changes in Latin America have been mainly linked to the behaviour of the middle and upper income groups. Fertility and mortality have fallen to relatively low levels among these groups, and future changes are expected to have more to do with the demographic behaviour of the less prosperous groups. This document examines that behaviour, and the contribution of the less prosperous sectors to falls in fertility and infant mortality, distinguishing between the "distribution" effect (changes in the educational profile of the population) and the "rates" effect (demographic changes within the social groups). In relation to infant mortality, fertility, and the most immediate factors of fertility among those sectors which are socially and demographically most disadvantaged, it is observed that the desired number of children is lower than the actual number; however, early marriage remains high and use of modern contraceptive methods is limited. In any case, these groups have already begun the demographic transition, with reductions in fertility and infant mortality, although this is less so than in other sectors of society. As for the contribution of those groups to the evolution of the demographic transition at the national level, it is observed that in various countries, over the past decade, the reductions have come mostly from the contribution of women having the lowest educational levels. In those countries where the transition has progressed the least, the greatest contribution has been by women without education, and in those where it has progressed most, it has come from women having only primary education.

(LATIN AMERICA, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY DECLINE, INFANT MORTALITY, TRENDS, LOWER CLASS).

Spanish ? pp. 7-54.

S. Schkolnik; J. Chackiel, Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, CELADE, Santiago, Chile.

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MERINO ESCOBAR, Jos? Manuel.

Contextual effects and marital fertility: A multilevel model of parity in the Biob?o region, Chile [Efectos contextuales y fecundidad marital: un modelo de niveles m?ltiples de la paridez en la regi?n del Biob?o, Chile].

This is a multilevel analysis that applies a new statistical modelling method to determine contextual effects acting on the reproductive behaviour of women living in the Eighth Region of Chile, the Biob?o Region. Multilevel analyses or contextual effects studies are a recent research paradigm within the social sciences which has been of increasing importance since the 1980s in areas such as education, health, fertility, migration, economics and, generally speaking, in areas having a hierarchical structure. In this context, a hierarchy is a structure consisting of units ranked at different levels: for example, fertile women are level 1 units, the rural districts where they live are the level 2 units, and these in turn are grouped geographically into comunas, the level 3 units in this hierarchical structure.

The purpose of this study was to link data on the reproductive behaviour of fertile women (level 1 or micro-level) with the macro-structural properties of both the rural districts where they live (level 2) and of the comunas in the Eighth Region where those districts are located (level 3). The specific research topic was to determine the extent to which a dependent variable at the individual level, such as the total number of children ever born per woman, is accounted for by differences between districts and/or between comunas, or in other words, by inherent characteristics of the district or comuna of residence; and also to determine how much was attributable, within each district, to individual variations stricto sensu. The method used was one of multilevel modelling using Poisson regression, by means of a statistical procedure known as hierarchical analysis with random effects.

(CHILE, REGIONS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT, LOCAL COMMUNITIES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, PARITY, STOCHASTIC MODELS).

Spanish ? pp. 55-101.

J. M. Merino Escobar, Universidad de Concepci?n, Concepci?n, Chile.

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DOMENACH, Herv?.

On "migratology" [Sobre la "Migratolog?a"].

The emergence of highly compartmentalized supranational geopolitical regions draws attention both to recent developments in the phenomenon of migration and to increasing levels of human mobility within protected spaces. Current changes in socioeconomic structures, which bring about new migratory trends, are due to three main factors: worldwide demographic growth and its geographic distribution; the globalization of trading relationships; and the technology and communications revolution. This suggests that the time has come to advocate a comprehensive study of migration, literally a discipline of "migratology", so that present-day migratory phenomena can be studied in the light of contemporary societal changes and the consequent evolution of the two basic analytic dimensions, "space/time" and "flows/stocks". Lastly, this approach raises the issue of what scientific identity, in the epistemological sense, the subject of migration is to have.

(MIGRATION, METHODOLOGY, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH).

Spanish ? pp. 101-118.

H. Domenach, LPE, Universit? de Provence, Maseille, France.

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AGUIRRE, Alejandro.

Maternal mortality estimation from several sources in Mexico [M?xico: estimaci?n de la mortalidad materna a partir de diversas fuentes].

There are several sources of information for the study of maternal mortality. For the case of Mexico, an analysis of the characteristics of each of them as well as their advantages and drawbacks is presented. Vital statistics in Mexico are the main source of information about maternal mortality. The coverage of the records of deaths among women in childbearing ages is reasonable (only 3.5% of them go unrecorded); however, the main pitfall consists on the missclassification of causes of death that leads to an underestimation of maternal mortality. Other sources of information are: the reports of the committees for the study of maternal mortality; reproductive age mortality surveys (RAMOS), and the information required for Brass's sisterhood method. Information from maternal mortality committees do not even reach the coverage of vital statistics but sheds light into the circumstances in which maternal deaths occur. With RAmos and with the sisterhood method the actual level of maternal mortality level can be assessed.

(MEXICO, MATERNAL MORTALITY, ESTIMATES, INFORMATION SOURCES, DATA COLLECTION, QUALITY OF DATA).

Spanish ? pp. 119-138.

A. Aguirre, El Colegio de M?xico, Camino Al Ajusco No. 20, Codigo Postal 10740, Mexico City, Mexico.

aguirre@colmex.mx.

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AGUIRRE, Alejandro.

Extension of the preceding-birth technique [Extensi?n del m?todo del hijo previo].

The preceding-birth technique starts by asking women, on the occasion of a birth, about the survival of the previous child. The proportion of previous children who have died produces an index of early childhood mortality. In its original form, this technique uses information obtained from hospitals and maternity units. In most cases the coverage is far from complete, which can bias the estimates. In order to improve coverage, it has been proposed that the data should be collected at a more suitable time, such as when a health care service is being provided. In this case, however, a new source of inaccuracy arises, since only women whose latest child has survived will be interviewed. There is a correlation in the probability of death among successive siblings; if a child dies, there is a higher probability that the next sibling will also die. Thus, if the information is not collected at the time of childbirth, mothers whose latest child has died and whose previous children showed increased levels of mortality are omitted. To correct infant mortality estimates, the preceding-birth technique needs to be extended; here, this is illustrated by applying it to data collected by the Mexican Social Security Institute (Imss).

(MEXICO, METHODOLOGY, CHILD MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY, ESTIMATES, QUALITY OF DATA, DATA COLLECTION, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT).

Spanish ? pp. 139-162.

A. Aguirre, El Colegio de M?xico, Camino Al Ajusco No. 20, Codigo Postal 10740, Mexico City, Mexico.

aguirre@colmex.mx.

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TAUCHER, Erica; D?AZ, Nora; ICAZA, Gloria.

Matching data on infant mortality and births in Chile [Pareo de datos sobre defunciones infantiles y nacimientos en Chile].

This study compares information on the characteristics of children and their parents, as contained in birth and death certificates, and assesses the impact of discrepancies in that information on the results obtained in calculating differentials in infant mortality, when data on deaths from one or other of these sources is used as numerator. For this purpose, data on deaths under one year of age in the birth cohort for 1994 were paired with data on the corresponding births. The pairing was done using the national identification number which appears on both birth and death certificates. The greatest discrepancies observed were related to the number of weeks of gestation of the child and the years of school completed by the parents. However, when comparisons were made between mortality differentials associated with different variables, it was found that overall patterns were not affected by differences between the rates.

(CHILE, INFANT MORTALITY, BIRTH RECORDS, DEATH RECORDS, MATCHING, QUALITY OF DATA, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY).

Spanish ? pp. 163-180.

E. Taucher, N. D?az, G. Icaza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.

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BAY, Guiomar.

Use of symptomatic variables for estimating population in small areas [El uso de variables sintom?ticas en la estimaci?n de la poblaci?n de ?reas menores].

This study presents four methods for estimating population in small areas, using models based on existing administrative records. It also analyses the use of such methods in the region. Four methods were selected: prorate distribution, proportional distribution, ratio correlation, and difference correlation. Each one is briefly described and its subsequent use in Chile and Costa Rica is discussed. In both countries, data from the period before the latest census were used, and estimates were obtained for the areas covered at the time of the census; this enabled the models in use to be evaluated. The study also lists the obstacles encountered during the project, mostly regarding the basic data, and the ways in which the obstacles were overcome are described. These problems are similar to those which may arise if the same methods are applied in other countries of the region.

(CHILE, COSTA RICA, METHODOLOGY, POPULATION ESTIMATES, MODELS, EVALUATION).

Spanish ? pp. 181-208.

G. Bay, Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, CELADE, Santiago, Chile.

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CABELLA, Wanda.

Developments in divorce in Uruguay (1950-1995) [La evoluci?n del divorcio en Uruguay (1950-1995)].

A distinctive feature of Uruguay in the Latin American context is its atypical nature in terms of traditions and demographic characteristics. The demographic transition, which began in the late 19th century, took place against the background of an early organization of the secular State, built upon areas of authority lost by the ecclesiastical power. The adoption of divorce laws (1907-1913) was one of the milestones in the extension of secular power. Despite that early legislation, divorce did not become a widespread practice in the first half of the century, and it increased relatively slowly until the early 1970s. However, the 1980s showed a rapid upturn, on such a scale that it has been referred to as "the divorce revolution". This document analyses the legal and demographic evolution of divorce from 1950 to 1995. The frequency of divorce during that period is analysed using indicators constructed on the basis of statistics on the duration of marriages; the analysis includes information on both the current situation and the evolution of the phenomenon among marriage cohorts.

(URUGUAY, DIVORCE, TRENDS, HISTORY).

Spanish ? pp. 209-246.

W. Cabella, Programa de Poblaci?n de la Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la Rep?blica, Uruguay.

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RANGEL, Marta.

Migrant status, race and gender in the Brazilian labour market: Metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro and S?o Paulo [Condici?n migratoria, raza y g?nero en el mercado de trabajo brasile?o: el caso de las regiones metropolitanas de Rio de Janeiro y S?o Paulo].

This article analyses and compares the social and employment structures of the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro and S?o Paulo, on the basis of data from the 1988 National Household Survey (PNAD-88); it takes into account simultaneously the variables of migrant status, race and gender. These variables are assumed to be factors in unequal labour market integration. The social and employment structure was constructed on the basis of a social index ranked according to the years of schooling and income of the respondents, resulting in a typology of social and employment categories which are relatively homogenous in terms of living conditions.

One important conclusion is that natives of the countries concerned are privileged in terms of labour market integration and migrants tend to be concentrated in the low-income tertiary sector. There are greater concentrations of natives in non-manual occupations, regardless of gender and metropolitan area. However, men enjoy better labour integration in the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area and women in the S?o Paulo metropolitan area. It was also observed that migrant status makes a greater difference in the case of whites (male and female) since, in this group compared with other ethnic groups, the probability is greater that natives will be better integrated in employment terms than their migrant peers.

It was also observed that inequality in integration in employment increases proportionately to the effect of the three variables analysed: migrant status, ethnic group and gender. There is a hierarchy within each variable: in terms of migrant status, the employment situation of natives is better than that of migrants; in terms of ethnic group, whites are better integrated than non-whites; and in terms of gender, the employment integration of women is less good than that of men. Lastly, it was observed that the duration of residence produces a positive effect on the socio-economic situation of migrants: the longer they remain resident, the better their integration in employment terms. As for ethnic group and gender, it was observed that the groups showing the greatest percentage increases in terms of non-manual occupations, and thereby the most significant improvements, were white women in the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area and non-white women in the S?o Paulo metropolitan area.

(BRAZIL, MEGALOPOLIS, LABOUR MARKET, MIGRANTS, RACE, INTEGRATION, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).

Spanish ? pp. 247-288.

M. Rangel, Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, CELADE, Santiago, Chile.

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NOTAS DE POBLACI?N, June 1999, Vol. 27, N? 69

BLANCHET, Didier.

Retirement thanks to capitalization and its distribution according to the demographic context: Comparative results [Jubilaci?n mediante capitalizaci?n y reparto seg?n el contexto demogr?fico: resultados comparativos].

This paper compares the properties of funded and pay-as-you-go pension systems in a growth model with two overlapping generations and two classes. The impact of funding and capital formation, the optimal shares of the two systems according to the population growth rate and the behaviours of pure funding and pure pay-as-you-go systems in a non-stable population are discussed. It is shown that, under the assumptions of the model, the share of unfunded pensions should decrease when the population growth rate declines. Furthermore, in a non-stable population, it is shown that funding has the perverse outcome of increasing intergenerational inequality at the expense of large cohorts.

(ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, RETIREMENT PENSIONS, PENSION SCHEMES, PENSION FUNDS, MODELS, GROWTH RATE).

Spanish ? pp. 7-40.

D. Blanchet, INED, 133 bd Davout, 75020 Paris, France.

blanchet@ined.fr.

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BEN?TEZ ZENTENO, Ra?l.

Demographic culture and education [Cultura demogr?fica y educaci?n].

In order to improve the levels of well-being of individuals and households, population policies must incorporate new sorts of human rights. This study postulates that a demographic culture should be introduced through formal and informal education, as well as through the information provided by the media, within a context of respect for the human person which is free from all manipulation, the objective being to create a profound sense of demographic processes as they relate to people's everyday lives.

There is a threshold to be crossed in terms of non-scientific knowledge. This requires an explicit discussion of the functions of the human body, sexual relations and their consequences; the promotion of family planning; ready access to contraceptive methods; and the fulfilment of constitutional mandates in relation to the freedom to choose the number of children and the timing of births. This also entails disseminating the history of the relevant population from the first settlements onward, its distribution and the demographic factors which have influenced its growth. The relationship between population dynamics and structure should also be analysed, taking into account the social, economic, environmental and cultural factors involved.

The paper also shows that perceptions of the family have undergone changes, the most significant of which is the sharp decrease observed in the proportion of the population wishing to have an indeterminate number of children.

Demography deserves to be considered as a separate discipline with its own multidisciplinary style which deals with the lives and reproductive behaviour of women and men, as well as the population issues as such that are the focus of worldwide debate. Population dynamics, structure and distribution also need to be considered from the point of view of how they relate to the environment.

According to the post-modern approach, in which population issues have taken on an updated demographic "culture", the exercise of freedom may or may not be constrained by the contemporary principle whereby the market is imposed as the basic regulator of development. It may be necessary to take into account the latest demographic projections reflecting an ageing population which, if neo-liberal thinking continues to hold sway, will also be impoverished. Such a situation would demand a rethinking of the objectives of population policy and a thorough evaluation of the social benefits resulting from the ageing of the population over such a short period of time. This is a major challenge since, judging from past experience, the trends reflected in the most recent stages of the demographic transition (reduced fertility and a leveling off of mortality at a minimum level) are believed to be irreversible.

In the context of planning which is purely economic in an erroneous sense of the term, the planning of social dimensions has been considered to be of a merely residual nature. From a narrow point of view, social planning deals with issues such as human well-being, living standards, education, health and housing which ultimately involve the concept of investment in human resources. Special mention is made in this connection of the International Conference on Population and Development, held at Cairo in 1994, and the resolutions and Programme of Action adopted at that conference.

(POPULATION POLICY, HUMAN RIGHTS, CULTURE, IEC, CONFERENCE).

Spanish ? pp. 41-60.

R. Ben?tez Zenteno, Universidad Nacional Aut?noma de M?xico, 04510 Mexico City, Mexico.

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MART?NEZ PIZARRO, Jorge.

International migration in population censuses [La migraci?n internacional en los censos de poblaci?n].

Given the increasing scale of international population flows -- an increase which to a great extent can be attributed to the current processes of globalization, liberalization and economic integration-- this article seeks to draw attention to the necessary distinctions between the traditional approaches to estimating a certain type of international territorial shift (migration) in censuses, and the difficulties for census-takers entailed by the identification of new forms of spatial mobility. The article contains a brief analysis of traditional methods for estimating migratory flows and proposes that their practical applicability can be maintained through the use of three basic questions: the country of birth, the country of residence five years before the census date and the year or date of arrival in the country of persons born elsewhere. It is noted that the latter category of international migrants is the one that has been studied the most, particularly by means of a comparative approach involving cross-country exchanges of census data on migrant population stocks. The article emphasizes that the relevant pool of knowledge includes not only quantitative information on migration, but also the territorial, social, economic and demographic specificities of migration both from and into a given country; these types of data represent the main advantage of traditional estimation methods.

The article goes on to discuss the need to recognize the explosive growth of new forms of territorial mobility at the international level that have been arisen as a result of globalization processes, although it also points out the current difficulties involved in or taking into account those forms of mobility in population censuses. Among other things, this would require the identification of migratory histories and living spaces, which are not reflected in population censuses and are more appropriate for specific surveys. However, in a highly novel proposal, the article suggests that a specific type of mobility (labour mobility) at the international level could be investigated, particularly in border areas where economic integration processes are proceeding at a rapid pace.

(INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, POPULATION CENSUSES, DATA COLLECTION, METHODOLOGY, CENSUS QUESTIONNAIRES).

Spanish ? pp. 61-90.

J. Mart?nez Pizarro, Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, CELADE, Santiago, Chile.

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RODR?GUEZ, Jorge.

Relevant census information in measuring housing deficits [Informaci?n censal relevante para la medici?n del d?ficit habitacional].

This article begins with a basic definition of the housing deficit and goes on to examine issues relating to housing surveys --applying guidelines produced by expert groups convened by the United Nations -- with a view to identifying aspects that can be of use in measuring housing deficits.

Having identified these items, the article considers the questions used to gather information about them in census schedules. This analysis reveals considerable differences at the country level between the types of questions used and draws attention to the various strengths and weaknesses of different sorts of questions.

In keeping with the objective of considering only those issues which are relevant for measuring the housing deficit at the most basic level, the article concludes with a series of suggestions for strengthening, modifying (broadening or simplifying) and replacing questions and response categories which should be incorporated in census schedules for the 2000 round of censuses.

(HOUSING, HOUSING CENSUSES, DATA COLLECTION, CENSUS QUESTIONNAIRES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, METHODOLOGY).

Spanish ? pp. 91-158.

J. Rodr?guez, Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, CELADE, Santiago, Chile.

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BRAVO, Jorge; MEDICI, Andr?.

Prevalence of indirect estimates and mortality due to Chagas disease, malaria and tuberculosis in Bolivia: Two applications to the evaluation of health programs [Estimaciones indirectas de la prevalencia y mortalidad por enfermedad de Chagas, malaria y tuberculosis en Bolivia: dos aplicaciones a la evaluaci?n de programas de salud].

The feasability and usefulness of making indirect estimates of morbidity and mortality due to Chagas disease, malaria and tuberculosis is demonstrated by use of incomplete demographic and epidemiological data from various sources. The first application to the Bolivian case is the estimation of the economic cost, in terms of production lost due to the three diseases. Death, but even more so the illness produced by these causes impose a very high economic cost to the country, over 7% of the gross domestic product, according to the medium estimate for 1998. The second application shows that the new Bolivian Epidemiological program, initiated in 1999, can help to avoid the death of 14 thousand to 21 thousand children under 6 years of age due to Chagas disease alone over the next 6 years. Its impact on the suffering, the economic loss and deaths of thousands of adults in the future documents the high cost-effectiveness of this type of programs.

(MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, MORBIDITY, ESTIMATES, CAUSES OF DEATH, DEFECTIVE DATA, COST ANALYSIS).

Spanish ? pp. 159-182.

J. Bravo, Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, CELADE, Santiago, Chile; A. Medici, Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID).

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