POPULATION STUDIES, 2001, Vol. 55, No. 1
VAN POPPEL, Frans; LIEFBROER, C.; VERMUNT, Jeroen K.; SMEENK, Vilma.
Love, necessity and opportunity: Changing patterns of marital age homogamy in the Netherlands, 1850-1993.
This article examines long-term trends in the pattern of age homogamy among first marriages, using vital registration data on all first marriages contracted between 1850 and 1993 in the Netherlands, After discussing the main mechanisms that could account for trends in age differences, we show that age differences between spouses narrowed considerably between 1850 and 1970. After 1970 the trend becomes less clear-cut.
(NETHERLANDS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, MARRIAGE RECORDS, FIRST MARRIAGE, HOMOGAMY).
English - pp. 1-13.
F. van Poppel, C. Liefbroer, NIDI, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands; J. K. Vermunt, Department of Methodology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Tilburg University, Netherlands; V. Smeenk, Research and Documentation Centre, Department of Justice, Netherlands.
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A log-logistic regression model for a transition rate with a starting threshold.
The paper presents a new type of parametric transition rate model that is particularly suitable for studying household and union information. In such studies, it is often not easy to determine the moment at which individuals actually enter the population at risk - or at least when the risk begins to become socially important. Even in the presence of regulations stipulated by law, one might be interested in studying 'social' timetables. We assume that there is a constant rate for any duration and that after a certain threshold point a log-logistic rate is added, with this threshold as its time origin. This can be justified in a behavioural sense by assuming that random and social transitions arise from separate processes. We then apply the model to union formation in Italy and show how threshold and intensity effects generated by theoretical hypotheses can be revealed.
(ITALY, MODELS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, FAMILY FORMATION, SOCIAL CHANGE).
English - pp. 15-24.
F. C. Billari, Research Group on the Demography of Early Adulthood, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.
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MURRAY, John E.; LAGGER, Bradley A.
Involuntary childlessness and voluntary fertility control during the fertility transition: Evidence from men who graduate from an American college.
Influences on the fertility of men during the American fertility decline are examined using a sample of about 1700 married men born between 1830 and 1880, all of whom attended Amherst College, Massachusetts. We consider two types of reduced fertility: involuntary childlessness as a function of health in early adulthood, and voluntary fertility control as a function of access to contraceptive technology. The relation between health, as measured by body mass index, and childlessness was nonlinear, with average sized men significantly more likely ever to father children than thin or bulky men. Among men who ever fathered a child, physicians fathered significantly fewer children while having probabilities of childlessness that were statistically indistinguishable from those of other men. Physicians may have had greater access to relatively new contraceptive technologies, which suggests a role of voluntary fertility control.
(UNITED STATES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY TRENDS, HEALTH, FAMILY PLANNING, MALE CONTRACEPTION, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS).
English - pp. 25-36.
J. E. Murray, Department of Economics, University of Toledo; B. A. Lagger, Ohio State University, U.S.A.
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MURPHY, Michael; WANG, Duolao.
Do previous birth interval and mother's education influence infant survival? A Bayesian model averaging analysis of Chinese data.
We examine the effect of socio-economic covariates on infant mortality in China in the 1980s, particularly the role of previous birth interval and mother's education, using an event history approach with data from the 1988 Two per Thousand Fertility Survey. We use a Bayesian model averaging strategy that takes account of model uncertainty as well as parameter uncertainty. A standard stepwise logistic regression analysis finds no statistically significant relationship between the preceding birth interval and infant survival after controlling for socio-demographic factors, but this finding is reversed when the Bayesian model averaging approach is adopted. However, the method finds less support than a standard stepwise approach for the role of mother's education. We consider the model-fitting criterion of predictive power when applied to out-of-sample observations, and show that Bayesian model averaging outperforms the stepwise approach. We conclude that, even with large sample sizes, the interpretation of results can vary substantially according to model selection and fitting criteria.
(CHINA, INFANT MORTALITY, BIRTH INTERVALS, EDUCATION OF WOMEN, SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, STOCHASTIC MODELS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
English - pp.37-47.
M. Murphy, Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, U.K.; D. Wang, Medical Statistics Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, U.K.
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The effects of ethnicity and educational attainment on Jewish marriage patterns: Changes in Israel, 1957-1995.
This paper presents a study of changes in marriage patterns among the Jewish population of Israel over nearly 40 years. Using data from four Israeli Censuses spanning experience from the late 1950s to the mid 1990s, we employ Schoen's harmonic mean model in a multivariate framework to consider, simultaneously, changes over time in age-specific marriage rates by ethnicity and educational attainment. Our analyses point a number of clear and interesting findings: (1) an increasingly positive association between marriage and educational attainment, especially for women; (2) the continuing central role of ethnicity in mate selection, despite important declines in ethnic endogamy over the period; (3) a decrease in the prominence of unions of 'exchange'; (4) some evidence of increasing 'block' endogamy among Jews of Asian and African origin; and (5) a small increase in educational homogamy over the period. Interpretations and implications of these findings are discussed.
(ISRAEL, JEWS, MARRIAGE, AGE AT MARRIAGE, HOMOGAMY, ENDOGAMY, MATE SELECTION, ETHNIC ORIGIN, EDUCATION, EDUCATION OF WOMEN, MODELS).
English - pp. 49-64.
B. S. Okun, Department of Population Studies, Faculty of Scocial Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus Campus, 91905 Jerusalem, Israel.
bsokun@vms.huji.ac.il.
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GALLEY, Chris; SHELTON, Nicola.
Bridging the gap: Determining long-term changes in infant mortality in pre-registration England and Wales.
Much effort has been expended in analysing a small sample of parish registers to produce national estimates of infant mortality for the period 1580-1840. However, in an age when inter-parish variations in infant mortality were considerable, national trends often obscured local and regional differences. By analysing data from the initial years of Civil Registration (1839-1846) together with infant mortality rates from a range of parishes, it is possible to assess the extent of variation and change in England and Wales during the period 1580-1840. The geographical variations in infant mortality and the age structure of infant deaths were sufficient to suggest that the most important influence on whether infants survived was disease environments.
(ENGLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, HISTORICAL SOURCES, INFANT MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH, DISEASES, MORTALITY TRENDS, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 65-77.
C. Galley, Barnsley College, Eastgate, Barnsley, U.K.; N. Shelton, Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, U.K.
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COHEN, Yinon; HABERFELD, Yitchak.
Self-selection and return migration: Israeli-born Jews returning home from the United States during the 1980s.
This paper analyzes self-selection of returning immigrants. We propose an empirical model for this purpose, and apply it to Israeli-born immigrants who arrived in the United States during 1970-79 and returned to Israel during 1980-89. The results, based on analyses of the 5 per cent Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) of the 1980 and 1990 United States censuses, suggest that those who return from the United States to Israel would have been less successful in the United States labour market than Israelis of similar schooling (and other measured characteristics) who remained in the United States. These results were corroborated using Israeli census data that include information on returning Israelis.
(ISRAEL, UNITED STATES, JEWS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, RETURN MIGRATION, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, LABOUR MARKET, CENSUSES).
English - pp. 79-91.
Y. Cohen and Y. Haberfeld, Department of Labour Studies, Tel Aviv University, Israel.
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POPULATION STUDIES, 2001, Vol. 55, No. 2
Has population growth restricted improvements in food availability per head, 1970-95?
Using data from the Food and Agricultural Organization and some other sources, it was estimated that rapid growth in countries with an initial average calorie availability of below 2800 per head inhibited improvements in food production and availability per head during the 1980s and early 1990s. There were statistically significant negative effects of population growth on the growth in the production of noncereal food crops, milk, and meat, and in total food production. Because net food imports and aid shipments of cereals responded similarly, rather than acting as compensatory factors, the development in total calorie availability per head was least satisfactory in countries with the most rapid growth. A rapid increase in the number of adults of working age appeared to be no less disadvantageous than an increase in the number of children or elderly. Weaker effects were found when the entire 1970-95 period was considered. There were few indications that poverty, illiteracy, or land or water scarcity made it particularly difficult to cope with growing population.
(POPULATION GROWTH, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SUPPLY, POPULATION DYNAMICS, POPULATION COMPOSITION, POVERTY, ILLITERACY).
English - pp. 105-117.
Ø. Kravdal, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
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Socio-economic status and divorce in first marriages in Finland 1991-93.
Various studies report an inverse association between socio-economic status and the risk of marital disruption. Using register-based follow-up data on first marriages in Finland intact at the end of 1990 and divorces in 1991-93 (n=21 309), this study aimed at gaining a better understanding of socio-economic differentials in divorce risk by disentangling the influences of various aspects of the socio-economic status of the spouses. Indicators of socio-economic status include each spouse's education, occupational class, economic activity, and income as well as housing tenure and housing density. When examined individually, divorce risk was inversely associated with socio-economic status for all its various indicators except wife's income. All of these factors had an independent effect on divorce risk. The effect was, however, weak for the spouses' occupational rankings and housing density, and it was positive for the wife's income. Given the multifaceted nature of these socio-economic differentials, it appears unlikely that one single explanation could account for them all.
(FINLAND, MARRIAGE, FIRST MARRIAGE, DIVORCE, SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS, OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS, HOUSING CONDITIONS).
English - pp. 119-133.
M. Jalovaara, Population Research Unit, Department of Sociology, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
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Religion, social milieu, and the contraceptive revolution.
This study examines how the social environment of religious congregations affects the spread of contraceptive use in developing contexts, using Mozambique as a case study. Analysis of qualitative data collected in urban areas of that country in 1998-99 and of the data from the 1997 Mozambique Demographic and Health Survey suggests that, in urban areas, the environment of more socioculturally diverse and inclusive Roman Catholic and mission-based Protestant congregations is more propitious to the spread and legitimization of modern contraception than the milieu of smaller, relatively homogeneous, independent churches. In rural areas, however, sociocultural diversity within and across different religious denominations is minimal, and membership in any formal congregation offers an advantage in contraceptive learning.
(MOZAMBIQUE, FAMILY PLANNING, CONTRACEPTION, RELIGION, CULTURE, SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, RURAL-URBAN DIFFERENTIALS).
English - pp. 135-148.
V. Agadjanian, Department of Sociology, Arizona State University, U.S.A.
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Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95.
Between 1951 and 1998, the United Nations (UN) published 16 sets of population projections for the world, its major regions, and countries, This paper reports the accuracy of the projection results. I analyse the quality of the historical data used for the base populations of the projections, and for extrapolating fertility and mortality. I study also the impact this quality has had on the accuracy of the projection results. Results and assumptions for the sets of projections are compared with corresponding estimates from the UN 1998 Revision for total fertility and life expectancy at birth, total population, and the projected age structures. The report covers seven major regions (Africa, Asia, the former USSR, Europe, Northern America, Latin America, and Oceania) and the largest ten countries of the world as of 1998 (China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Russia, Japan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria).
(UN, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POPULATION FORECASTS, POPULATION ESTIMATES, DATA EVALUATION, QUALITY OF DATA).
English - pp. 149-164.
N. Keilman, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
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BECKER, Stan; AHMED, Saiffuddin.
Dynamics of contraceptive use and breastfeeding during the post-partum period in Peru and Indonesia.
This paper examines the interaction between contraceptive use and breastfeeding in relation to resumption of intercourse and duration of amenorrhea post-partum. We used data from the month-by-month calendar of reproductive events from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in Peru and Indonesia. The analyses show that breastfeeding women were less likely than non-breastfeeding women to have resumed sexual intercourse in the early months post-partum in both countries. In Peru, but not in Indonesia, breastfeeding women had a significantly lower odds than non-breastfeeding women of adopting contraception. Although the likelihood of contraceptive adoption was highest in the month women resumed menstruation in both countries, about ten per cent of subsequent pregnancies occurred to women before they resumed menses. These results emphasize the importance of integrating breastfeeding counselling and family planning services in programmes serving post-partum women, as a means of enabling those who wish to space their next birth to avoid exposure to the risk of pregnancy that may precede the return of menses.
(PERU, INDONESIA, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, BREAST FEEDING, POST-PARTUM AMENORRHOEA, POST-PARTUM ABSTINENCE, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS).
English - pp. 165-179.
S. Becker, Department of Population and Family Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, U.S.A.; S. Ahmed, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, U.S.A.
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Chinese genealogies as a source of demographic research: A further assessment of their reliability and biases.
Genealogy is the written record of family or lineage members descended from a common ancestor or ancestors. These materials have long been used by demographers in their investigation of past demographic behaviour. Most available genealogies, however, are the records of members of surviving patrilineages. Among the many reasons why these patrilineages have avoided extinction is the fact that they have usually experienced favourable demographic conditions. In consequence, their genealogies could be a biased data source if used in the study of the history of the whole population. This paper examines this issue, using evidence on the historical experience of the Chinese population and computer micro-simulation.
(CHINA, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, HISTORICAL SOURCES, GENEALOGY, BIAS,
METHODOLOGY, MODELS, SIMULATION, MICROSIMULATION).
English - pp. 181-193.
Z. Zhao, Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, 27 Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1QA, U.K.
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DODOO, F. Nii-Amoo; EZEH, Alex C.; OWUOR, Tom O.
Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject.
Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus of the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.
(KENYA, FAMILY PLANNING, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, MARRIAGE, SPOUSES, MARITAL ROLES, INTERPERSONAL COMMUNICATION, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS).
English - pp. 195-198.
F. N.-A. Dodoo, University of Maryland and the African Population and Health Research Center, A. C. Ezeh and T. O. Owuor, the African Population and Health Research Center.
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