***
Stillwell, John; Bell, Martin; Blake, Marcus; Duke-Williams, Oliver; Rees, Phil.
Net migration and migration effectiveness: A comparison between Australia and the United Kingdom, 1976-96. Part 1: Total migration patterns.
A nation's population is redistributed through migration flows and counterflows between its constituent subnational areas, resulting in a geographical pattern of net migration gains or losses which may change from one time period to another. Migration effectiveness is the indicator commonly used to measure net migration as a proportion of gross migration turnover for any territorial unit. This paper explores the effect of net migration in two different countries, Australia and the United Kingdom, using measures of migration effectiveness computed from period-age migration data sets for a system of city regions assembled for four consecutive five-year periods in each country. While the evidence suggests that the overall effectiveness of net migration has declined over the 20-year period in both countries, marked similarities and contrasts are apparent in the spatial patterning of migration that together provide useful analytical insights into the changing space economies of the two countries.
(AUSTRALIA, UNITED KINGDOM, CITIES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, NET MIGRATION, MIGRATION BALANCE, MIGRATION TRENDS, MIGRATION MEASUREMENT, DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 17-38.
J. Stillwell, O. Duke-Williams, P. Rees, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, U.K.; M. Bell, University of Queensland, Australia; M. Blake, University of Adelaide, Australia.
j.stillwell@geog.leeds.ac.uk.
***
Jones, Gavin W.; Hull, Terence H.; Ahlburg, Dennis.
The social and demographic impact of the Southeast Asian Crisis of 1997-99.
When an unexpected financial crisis overtook Southeast Asia in 1997 planners and policymakers feared that the economic difficulties would unwind two decades of remarkable economic and social development. Newspaper headlines spoke of massive increases in poverty, unemployment and malnutrition, and it was speculated that family planning programs would collapse and fertility would rise dramatically. Infant and child mortality and maternal mortality were also expected to increase. This paper briefly reviews the onset of the financial crisis as a background for assessing whether speculations about the demographic and social effects tallied with reality. It is found that these effects were neither as dramatic nor as easy to monitor as some of the public debate implied. The general lesson is that the most serious social and demographic problems were not so much the products of crisis as embedded in chronic weaknesses that had become entrenched in times of economic growth. The crisis exposed these weaknesses.
(SOUTHEASTERN ASIA, ECONOMIC RECESSION, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES, POPULATION SITUATION).
English - pp. 39-62.
G. W. Jones, T. H. Hull, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia; D. Ahlburg, University of Minnesota, Minnesota, U.S.A.
***
Below-replacement fertility in Tropical Africa? Some evidence from Addis Ababa.
In the past few years there has been a gradual but progressive shift away from the long held scepticism about the prospect of reproductive change in Tropical Africa. Consequently, the question is now not so much whether Tropical Africa remains a spectator of fertility transition, but whether and how soon fertility in the region will decline to level attained in other parts of the world. Using data from a series of censuses and surveys conducted in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, a country which itself has high fertility, this study explores emerging evidence of fertility levels below two children per woman in an African city. Postponement of marriage and increased incidence of non-marriage, as well as a decline in marital fertility recorded across all birth orders and all age group, are the routes by which the observed transition to below-replacement fertility has been achieved. The paper outlines some tentative institutional and cultural factors that may have contributed to these changes.
(ETHIOPIA, CITIES, BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY, FERTILITY DECLINE, MARRIAGE POSTPONEMENT, LEGITIMATE FERTILITY RATE, NUPTIALITY RATE, CULTURAL CHANGE, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 63-82.
Y. Kinfu, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia.
***
Demographic transition in Arab countries: A new perspective.
This paper provides a new perspective on the fertility transition in Arab countries. It shows that the story of Arab fertility must be retold: the story is of a region with the highest fertility preferences, exhibiting reluctance to change due to the strangle-hold of cultural forces, and just starting to respond to development forces. The paper shows that Arab regional experience is quite comparable to that of other developing countries and that, though the fertility decline occurred at a somewhat later date, the pace of decline more than compensates for this delay. Furthermore, the probing of country level experiences and forces underlying the transition shows the diversities of these experiences and the exaggeration of the role of cultural specificity. It also demonstrates that a large part of the decline in Arab fertility is due to changes in nuptiality. For some segments of society and some countries, these changes are not paralleled by increased opportunities for women to have more fulfilling lives. For these women, the fertility decline is not necessarily improving the quality of their lives and cannot be equated with progress and development.
(ARAB COUNTRIES, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, WOMEN?S ROLE, WOMEN?S STATUS, NUPTIALITY, CULTURAL CHANGE).
English - pp. 83-101.
H. Rashad, Social Research Center, The American University in Cairo, 113 Kasr El Eini, PO Box 2511, 11511 Cairo, Egypt.
***
JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH, 2000, Vol. 17, No. 2
"Bringing the unclothed immigrant into the world": Population policies and gender in twentieth-century Australia.
This paper considers several policy responses to declining birth rates in Australia over the twentieth century, revealing key continuities in the 'administration of population'. Early in the century pronatalist policies to enhance fertility predominated. In spite of evidence in the 1890s, 1920s and 1940s that economics shaped family sizes and that women's lives included paid work, little acknowledgement of this occurred outside wartime. In the second half of the twentieth century, immigration largely replaced pronatalism as a desired means of building population numbers. Century's end brought new concerns about fertility decline, an ageing population, immigration and increased asylum seeking. These concerns revitalized the call for a population policy and raised unresolved questions for women.
(AUSTRALIA, POPULATION POLICY, PRONATALIST POLICY, IMMIGRATION POLICY, FERTILITY DECLINE, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, IMMIGRATION, WOMEN?S STATUS, WOMEN?S ROLE).
English - pp. 109-123.
A. Mackinnon, Hawke Institute, University of South Australia, Magill Campus, St Bernard's Road, Magill SA 5072, Australia.
alison.mackinnon@unisa.edu.au
***
Unseemly and unwomanly behaviour: Comparing women's control of their fertility in Australia and England from 1890 to 1970.
From 1890 to 1970 Australian women's use of female-controlled birth control methods was higher than that of English women. The latter primarily depended upon withdrawal and condoms. Use of these male-controlled methods of contraception is associated with low levels of female sexual pleasure, and the belief that husbands should initiate sexual activity and should control their wives' fertility. I argue that higher use of female methods gave white Australian women greater sexual and reproductive autonomy throughout this period. The view that they were in a less desirable position than women in other Anglo cultures needs to be examined more closely.
(AUSTRALIA, ENGLAND, SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, SEXUAL SATISFACTION, FAMILY PLANNING, CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS, MALE CONTRACEPTION, CONDOM, COITUS INTERRUPTUS, WOMEN?STATUS, WOMEN?S ROLE, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 125-141.
H. Cook, The History Department, University of Sydney, Sydney NSW 2006, Australia.
hercooka@arts.usyd.edu.au.
***
Power and negotiation: Young women's choices about sex and contraception.
This paper explores issues of power and negotiation for two decisions affecting young women's sexual lives: the decision to have sexual intercourse and the decision to contracept. Using data from two recent Australian surveys the paper explores the complexity of these decisions and the way in which gender relations between young people can influence their reproductive outcomes; young women experience a high rate of sexual coercion and violence and current data collections do not allow analysis of their cause.
(AUSTRALIA, SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, CONTRACEPTION, DECISION MAKING, YOUNG POPULATION, WOMEN?S STATUS, WOMEN?S ROLE).
English - pp. 143-162.
A. Evans, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia.
ann.evans@anu.edu.au.
***
Challenges to reproductive health in Australia.
Reproductive health in Australia is assessed using the parameters outlined in the UN 1994 Cairo conference; some limitations of that approach are noted and further aspects of reproductive health identified and discussed. While many of the basic goals of reproductive health, for example low maternal mortality and widespread contraceptive use, have been largely achieved in Australia, the gains have not been uniform and certain groups such as indigenous Australians, those in rural and remote areas, young people and men remain disadvantaged. The remaining challenges cannot be met within the health system alone but require broader systemic interventions.
(AUSTRALIA, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, FAMILY PLANNING, CONTRACEPTION, MATERNAL MORTALITY, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, HEALTH SERVICES, RURAL-URBAN DIFFERENTIALS).
English - pp. 163-173.
P. Kane, The Old School, Major's Creek, via Braidwood, NSW 2622, Australia.
penny.kane@bigpond.com.
***
Declining fertility and policy intervention in Europe: Some lessons for Australia?
The contemporary fertility situation in Europe is outlined with emphasis on trends in the late 1990s. It is shown that while most European countries have lower fertility levels than Australia there is wide variation between countries with respect to both their levels of fertility and their rate of fertility decline. While almost all countries are experiencing fertility decline the rate of decline is higher and the fertility is lower in countries where the male-breadwinner model is strongest. Attempts to influence fertility in European nations are discussed, particularly those involving the introduction of family-friendly policies. It is clear that despite popular beliefs to the contrary, societies where male-breadwinner models influence policy most are those with lowest fertility. The lesson for Australia is that family-friendly policies not only are desirable from the perspective of moving toward gender equality but are likely to stabilize or perhaps even marginally increase fertility.
(AUSTRALIA, EUROPE, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, GOVERNMENT POLICY, SEX ROLES, MARITAL ROLES, WOMEN?S STATUS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 175-198.
G. Hugo, Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies, University of Adelaide, Adelaide SA 5005, Australia.
graeme.hugo@adelaide.edu.au.
***
JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH, 2001, Vol. 18, No. 1
Understanding circulation in Australia.
Progress in the nascent field of inquiry concerned with understanding circulation in developed countries requires a balance between individual and aggregate modes of explanation. The sparsity and fragmentation of current studies is traced to the dearth of appropriate data sources and the complexity of circular moves, reflecting the integral connections between data, method and theory in migration research. It is argued that circulation, like permanent migration, can be divided into production- and consumption-related categories, but that measurement of circulation is complicated by three additional features: variable duration, repetition and seasonality. Four dimensions of population movement are identified: intensity of circular migration, movement distances, patterns of redistribution and migration networks. Census and survey data are used to quantify these dimensions.
(AUSTRALIA, GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY, REPEATED MIGRATION, SEASONAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION MEASUREMENT, INDICATORS, DATA COLLECTION, CENSUSES, SURVEYS).
English - pp. 1-18.
M. Bell, Department of Geographical Sciences and Planning, The University of Queensland, Queensland 4072, Australia.
***
Stillwell, John; Bell, Martin; Blake, Marcus; Duke-Williams, Oliver; Rees, Phil.
Net migration and migration effectiveness: A comparison between Australia and the United Kingdom, 1976-96. Part 2: Age-related migration patterns.
This paper explores the impact of net migration in Australia and the United Kingdom using measures of migration effectiveness computed from period-age migration data for four consecutive five-year periods. Results reported in Part 1 of this paper (Stillwell et al. 2000) suggest that while the overall effectiveness of net migration at the scale of city regions has declined over the twenty-year period in both countries, important geographical variations are evident. Part 2 considers how patterns of migration effectiveness vary by age and presents a single classification of all the city regions on the basis of age-specific effectiveness. More detailed analysis includes spatial patterns for particular age groups and net migration profiles of selected regions. Cohort effects are shown to be important for explaining changes between time periods in these regions.
(AUSTRALIA, UNITED KINGDOM, CITIES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, NET MIGRATION, MIGRATION BALANCE, DIFFERENTIAL MIGRATION, GENERATION EFFECT, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 19-39.
J. Stillwell, O. Duke-Williams, P. Rees, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, U.K.; M. Bell, University of Queensland, Australia; M. Blake, University of Adelaide, Australia.
j.stillwell@geog.leeds.ac.uk.
***
The social effect of population growth in the periurban region: The case of Adelaide.
The forces driving periurban population growth and change vary, resulting in different scales of periurban development, and local differences will undoubtedly modify the social effect of population growth in the periurban zone. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of recent population growth on the social structure of periurban communities. Drawing on results from surveys of migration to three study areas in the periurban region of Adelaide (South Australia), the paper examines the perceptions of recent migrants as distinct from the established residents, focusing on three key aspects associated with population growth: social integration, satisfaction and identification with the local area and local commitment.
(AUSTRALIA, CITIES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, URBAN AREAS, URBAN POPULATION, POPULATION GROWTH, SOCIAL STRUCTURE, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION, MIGRANT STATUS).
English - pp. 40-51.
T. Ford, Social of Planning and Housing, Edinburgh College of Art, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH1 2HJ, U.K.
T.Ford@eca.ac.uk.
***
Old-age security, religious celibacy, and aggregate fertility in a Tibetan population.
Using the family system as a framework, this study investigates the connection between old-age security concerns and aggregate fertility in Sama and Lho, two ethnically Tibetan villages of highland Nepal. The microdemographic approach reveals a difference in family systems between the two villages that results in Sama having a significantly lower level of fertility than Lho. The key difference lies in the practice of Sama's (but not Lho's) householders of designating a daughter to be a nun, a strategy meant to retain female labour within the household and thereby guarantee a caretaker in old age. Although the effect of this practice on individual fertility is unclear, the comparison with Lho reveals how it sharply curtails aggregate fertility by preventing nearly one in five women from marrying. In this case the motivation to ensure old-age security acts as an unintentional preventive check on population growth. Comparisons with other societies illustrate how the population of Sama combines elements of both the historical European and Asian demographic experiences.
(NEPAL, CITIES, FERTILITY DECLINE, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, FAMILY COMPOSITION, AGED, KINSHIP, RELIGION, CELIBACY, QUALITY OF LIFE).
English - pp. 52-67.
Geoff Childs, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia.
geoff.childs@anu.edu.au.
***
Khoo, Siew-Ean; Zhao, Zhongwei.
A decomposition of immigrant divorce rates in Australia.
Crude divorce rates of overseas-born Australians by birthplace are not comparable because different birthplace groups have different age structures and marriage patterns that affect the rates. This paper decomposes the crude rates into components due to the effects of age structure, marriage patterns and the divorce rate of married men and women. This allows for a better comparison of the level of divorce by birthplace. The range in the standardized divorce rates by birthplace is smaller than that indicated by the crude rates. Nonetheless, there remains considerable variation in immigrant divorce rates in Australia.
(AUSTRALIA, DIVORCE, IMMIGRANTS, DIVORCE RATE, MARRIAGE, TYPES OF MARRIAGE, AGE AT MARRIAGE, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT).
English - pp. 68-77.
S.-E. Khoo, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia; Z. Zhao, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, U.K.
***
JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH, 2001, Vol. 18, No. 2
Caldwell, John C.; Caldwell, Pat.
Regional paths to fertility transition.
New sources of data on national fertility declines are used to examine the nature of fertility transition in major regions. These regions are defined by geographical and cultural criteria as well as by the forces attempting to shape fertility control. Particular attention is devoted to the timing of the onsets of fertility decline in the different countries of each region, and the rapidity of fertility decline within each country. The study finds greater similarities between the transitions than have sometimes been assumed.
(DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 91-117.
J. C. Caldwell, P. Caldwell, Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia.
Jack.Caldwell@anu.edu.au.
***
The analysis of early life courses: Complex descriptions of the transition to adulthood.
The quantitative analysis of life courses has to deal with a complex pattern of interrelated events and trajectories. Such a complex pattern needs complex measurement tools, even if only to describe the experience of cohorts. This paper addresses the methodological issue of describing the transition to adulthood from a life course perspective, following an event-based definition. New proposals are developed and traditional approaches are discussed, using Italy as an example. A generalization of survivor functions for the analysis of the temporal relationships between two events is introduced and applied. The paper then deals with the problem of describing the process of transition to adulthood as a whole, making use of the sequence analysis approach with special emphasis on the empirical analyses of the 'standardization vs individualization' hypotheses.
(ITALY, LIFE CYCLE, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, EVENT HISTORY SURVEYS, SURVIVORSHIP FUNCTION).
English - pp. 119-142.
F. C. Billari, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Str. 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.
billari@demogr.mpg.de.
***
Andersson, Gunnar; Woldemicael, Gebremariam.
Sex composition of children as a determinant of marriage disruption and marriage formation: Evidence from Swedish register data.
This paper investigates the effect of sex composition of children on the propensity of Swedish mothers to enter and leave marriage. Swedish population-register data are used to estimate relative risks of marriage formation and marriage dissolution for mothers with different numbers and sexes of children. The large number of observations allows us to get a very accurate picture of such relationships even if they are relatively weak. Morgan et al. (1988) used survey data for the US and claimed to have found that one- and two-child parents in that country had lower divorce risks if they had sons than if they had daughters. For Sweden, we find only a minor effect in the same direction for three-child mothers. For two-child mothers, we instead find that the divorce risk is slightly reduced if a woman has one child of each sex. The divorce risk of one-child mothers is not at all affected by the sex of the child. Finally, the sex composition of children has no effect on the propensity of Swedish mothers to enter the married state.
(SWEDEN, MARRIAGE, CONSENSUAL UNION, DIVORCE, DISSOLUTION OF MARRIAGE, SEX PREFERENCE, RISK).
English - pp. 143-153.
G. Andersson, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Str. 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany; G. Woldemicael, University of Asmara, Eritrea.
andersson@demogr.mpg.de.
***
Why is contraceptive use inversely associated with lactational amenorrhoea? Qualitative and quantitative insights from Bangladesh.
Over the past 15-20 years observations in many parts of the world have revealed a negative association between the natural protection afforded by lactational amenorrhoea and contraceptive uptake. This paper uses qualitative and quantitative data to explore the possible explanations for this negative association in two Bangladeshi populations, one urban and one rural. The findings suggest that an subconscious substitution of contraceptive protection for natural protection against pregnancy is the most likely explanation. It appears that shorter durations of exclusive breastfeeding have led to earlier resumption of menses which in turn prompts the use of contraception. However, other mechanisms appear to play a subsidiary role, at least in the rural population. Moreover, changes in breastfeeding cannot be viewed as totally independent of the promotion of modern family planning. Evidence suggests that family planning staff are poorly equipped to support breastfeeding and may often encourage the early introduction of supplements. There is a need to consider ways of promoting exclusive breastfeeding as well as ensuring ready access to contraception when fecundity resumes postpartum. Only such an integrated approach is likely to ensure that both negative effects on child health and unwanted pregnancies are avoided.
(BANGLADESH, FERTILITY, POST-PARTUM AMENORRHOEA, FAMILY PLANNING, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS, RURAL-URBAN DIFFERENTIALS).
English - pp. 155-176.
S. Salway, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 49-51 Bedford Square, London WC1B 3DP, U.K.
s.salway@lshtm.ac.uk.
***
Demography and the new economy.
The term 'New Economy' is used to refer to two distinct developments. The first is the increasing importance of pure services, particularly those related to information, and the corresponding decline in the importance of the goods-producing sector. The second is the liberalization of product and labour markets and the resulting decline of institutions like lifetime full employment. This development has been particularly evident in Australia and other English-speaking countries. Although there are connections between these two developments, their demographic implications are quite different. An information-based economy implies long periods of education, late childbearing and a reversal of the trend towards early retirement. Labour market liberalization implies extensive use of redundancy as a tool for labour force flexibility and an accentuation of the trend for workers over 50 to withdraw from the labour market. This trend has been sustainable so far because the baby boom has resulted in an increase in the proportion of the population aged 25 to 54. Within the next decade, this proportion will start to decline. If current institutions are maintained, an economic 'ageing crisis' will arrive at least a decade earlier than would be suggested by an examination of traditional dependency ratios.
(AUSTRALIA, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, EDUCATION, LABOUR MARKET, WORKING LIFE, RETIREMENT, AGE AT RETIREMENT, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING).
English - pp. 177-193.
J. Quiggin, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
John.Quiggin@anu.edu.ac.
***
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