ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS Y URBANOS, 2001, Vol. 16, No. 1 (46)
The obsolescence of population projections [La obsolescencia de las proyecciones de poblaci?n].
This article explores the development of the methodology used in the past for projecting populations and briefly describes the different procedures employed. It draws attention to the problem of failing to exploit the advantages of computers to design population projection models that would be better suited to the requirements of national planning. The lack of an adequate design for projecting populations has meant that the majority of population projections for the world?s countries only offer the number of people existing in the country for each five-year age group, and for every five calendar years. This not only implies theoretical aspects that are unacceptable today, but fails to provide the information continuously required by a country.
The design of an effective population projection model should take advantage of the enormous capacity of today?s computers to incorporate existing information and therefore provide better simulations of the annual changes that take place in a country?s population, updating population projections as soon as the supposed facts depart from social reality. Finally, a good projections program must have the capacity to use the projected population and to undertake all kinds of social, economic and educational projections so that they can be considered by the various departments or ministries of state.
(POPULATION PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, SIMULATION, SOFTWARE, COMPUTER PROGRAMMES, PLANNING).
Spanish - pp. 5-18.
E. E. Arriaga, Universidad Nacional de C?rdoba, Argentina.
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The evolution of poverty during periods of stabilization and structural adjustment. Mexico and Mexico City, 1982-1994 [La evoluci?n de la pobreza en ?pocas de estabilizaci?n y ajuste estructural. M?xico y Ciudad de M?xico, 1982-1994].
The period of economic crisis and structural adjustment in the 1980s and 1990s saw an increase in poverty based on income, together with a reduction of poverty measured by other indicators of scarcity and deprivation (such as lack of drainage). This article analyzes the paradoxical evolution of trends in poverty in Mexico and Mexico City. To this end, it describes the methodologies used to measure poverty. It also explores the problems of the National Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (ENIGHS), the main source for measuring poverty. It then examines existing studies on poverty in Mexico, the majority of which focus on income-based poverty. Development in the sphere of income-based poverty is contrasted with other essential facilities (health, education, housing). This serves as the basis for the discussion of the paradoxical evolution of these two dimensions of poverty.
The section concerning the evolution of poverty in Mexico City begins with a review of social micro-studies. It then shows the development of certain indicators of social welfare for the city, which show that the paradox of the evolution of poverty is not exclusive to the country as a whole, but also affects the city. The results of the measurement of poverty in Mexico City, based on the 1984, 1989 and 1992 ENIGHs and applying the Integrated Poverty Measurement Method (MMIP) are used for the discussion of this paradox. The article ends with evidence on changes in household living conditions during the periods of stabilization and adjustment in Xalpa, a working-class neighborhood in Mexico City.
(MEXICO, CITIES, POVERTY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS, WORKING CLASS, HOUSING, EDUCATION, HEALTH FACILITIES, SOCIAL WELFARE, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT).
Spanish - pp. 19-51.
A. Dami?n, Centro de Estudios Demogr?ficos y de Desarrollo Urbano, El Colegio de M?xico, Camino al Ajusco No. 20, 10740 Mexico City, Mexico.
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The educational status of rural children in Mexico [La situaci?n escolar de ni?as y ni?os rurales en M?xico].
Despite improvements in the coverage of the education system, a large proportion of rural children either fail to attend school, fall behind, or leave school without having completed the elementary education cycle. This article seeks to examine the educational status of children ages 6 to 16 in severely marginalized areas of the country and to identify the factors in their homes that contribute to the it. The analysis detected a school entrance age problem, which reflects the backwardness of a significant number of children, particularly girls, living in extreme poverty. Data on school attendance also revealed a phenomenon of mass desertion at an early age which affects these same groups. The article identifies some of the characteristics of children and their homes as factors linked to school attendance.
(MEXICO, RURAL AREAS, EDUCATION, POVERTY, CHILDREN, SCHOOL-AGE POPULATION, SCHOOL FAILURE, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCHOOL LEAVING, EDUCATIONAL DROPOUTS).
Spanish - pp. 53-83.
P. E. Mu?iz M., Programa de Educaci?n Salud y Alimentaci?n (Progresa), Mexico.
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Kunz Bola?os, Ignacio; Eibenshutz H., Roberto.
Fiscal instruments for reinforcing land policies [Algunos instrumentos fiscales para reforzar las pol?ticas de suelo].
This article describes a series of local fiscal instruments for reinforcing urban development policies, particularly those involving land. The main aim of these instruments is to promote inner city development while preventing speculation and the waste of urban space. As one of its theoretical bases, the article explains the general mechanism of intervention for transferring the undesirable costs of the poor use of the city to those responsible for this through fiscal measures. It then describes the instruments used; zoning-based appraisal, imposing proportionally higher taxes for land than for construction; taxing the under-use of standards and levying a surcharge on wasteland. Much of the analysis described is based on reality and examples from the Federal District, although the measures discussed are applicable to a variety of situations.
(MEXICO, CITIES, TAXES, LAND USE, GOVERNMENT POLICY, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, URBAN PLANNING).
Spanish - pp. 85-108.
I. Kunz Bola?os, Centro de Investigaciones en Arquitectura y Urbanismo, Universidad Nacional Aut?ma de M?xico, Mexico City, Mexico; R. Eibenshutz H., Centro de Estudios Metropolitanas, Universidad Aut?noma Metropolitana, unidad Xochimilco, Mexico.
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Social mobility and migration in Brazil; bibliographical review and empirical elements for analysis [Movilidad social y migraci?n en Brasil: revisi?n bibliogr?fica y elementos emp?ricos para el an?lisis].
Social and spatial mobility were key features in the construction of Brazilian urban-industrial society in the 19th century. Industrialization and urbanization created the conditions for unifying the Brazilian labor market, as well as the transition from an occupational structure based on farm jobs to a broader, more diversified one, albeit unequal, in terms of the quality and income of the jobs created. During this process, migrants from the rural area, particularly those from the North-east, showed the highest rates of ascending mobility because of their socio-occupational status of employment in the countryside. Revealing this link between social mobility and migration in Brazil, both in the past and more recently, is the aim of this article. To this end, it begins with a bibliographical essay on social mobility and its relationship with spatial mobility in Brazil over the past fifty years, and the construction of urban-industrial society in the 1990s, including the Lost Decade. It ends with the presentation of certain recent empirical evidence on the advance of social mobility in the country in light of data gathered by the 1996 NADP.
(BRAZIL, RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION, SOCIAL MOBILITY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS, SOCIAL CHANGE, LABOUR MARKET, EMPLOYMENT, OCCUPATIONS, INDUSTRIALIZATION, URBANIZATION).
Spanish - pp. 109-149.
P. de Martino Jannuzzi, SEADE, Brazil.
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Mikelarena, Fernando; P?rez-Fuentes, Pilar.
Family types and old age in Spain from the 18th to the 20th century [Modelos familiares y vejez en Espa?a. Siglos XVIII a XX].
The article begins with an attempt to prove whether a relationship existed between the plurality of family types in Spain and greater or lesser longevity. By linking indicators concerning the complexity of households and the longevity of the population, drawn from the 1860 census, the authors prove that the diversity of family types fails to explain longevity.
It then explores a range of historical situations in which it analyzes how old age was dealt with in Spain in relation to the various family types. In rural areas, old age was experienced very differently according to the predominant family type. Thus, in the province of Cuenca, from the 17th to the 20th century, old age meant loneliness, whereas in 18th century Navarra, the elderly lived mainly in complex households.
Urban spaces provide a range of situations in which the dominant family type loses its explanatory capacity, giving way to other factors such as immigrations, the dynamics of the labor market, marriage patterns and above all, the levels of those who never marry, and gender roles. In 18th century Pamplona, a city where the stem family model predominated, the elderly lived in complex households, although to a lesser extent than those in adjacent rural areas. The case of Bilbao, an economic center in northern Spain with a predominance of simple households, shows how solidarity with the elderly can also be compatible with this family type. The belief that, in industrial cities, the elderly lived in solitary households contrasts with the high number of elderly living in complex and even nuclear households. Finally, San Salvador del Valle shows the effect that rapid industrialization, coupled with large-scale male immigration, had on old age, as well as the subsequent capacity for adaptation shown by nuclear families in incorporating the elderly into complex households.
Despite the variety of family types that existed in Spain throughout the 18th and 20th centuries, this did not affect people?s longevity or patterns of solidarity with the elderly; on the contrary, solidarity constitutes one of the features of familial culture throughout the country.
(SPAIN, CITIES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, AGED, FAMILY COMPOSITION, NUCLEAR FAMILY, EXTENDED FAMILY, STEM FAMILY, FAMILY RELATIONSHIPS, MARRIAGE, SEX ROLES, CULTURE, LABOUR MARKET, IMMIGRATION, RURAL-URBAN DIFFERENTIALS).
Spanish - pp. 151-189.
F. Mikelarena, Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain; P. P?rez-Fuentes, Universidad del Pa?s Vasco, Spain.
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ESTUDIOS DEMOGRAFICOS Y URBANOS, 2001, Vol. 16, No. 2 (47)
Risk, migration and border spaces: A reflection [Riesgo, migraci?n y espacios fronterizos: una reflexi?n].
The article explores the relationship between migration, risk and border spaces by studying the migration of undocumented persons on the northern and southern borders of Mexico. Following a brief summary of the literature on risk, which presents the prevailing paradigms on the theme, the author explores the way the concept helps to explain migration, particularly along borders. This is followed by a conceptual proposal for investigating risks in migratory routes. The article ends with a summary of the main points.
(MEXICO, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, BOUNDARIES, POPULATION AT RISK).
Spanish - pp. 257-284.
O. Ruiz, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Blvd. Abelardo L. Rodr?guez, 925, Zona del R?o, Tijuana, Mexico.
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Water and sustainability in Mexico City [Agua y sustentabilidad en la Ciudad de M?xico].
The article deals with the importance of water for sustainability in Mexico City. It provides a brief reference to its ecological characteristics and the principal transformations it has undergone over time, as a result of the modification of its natural lacustrine eco-system into one of the world?s largest cities. It analyzes the problems associated with the water supply, particularly those related to the growing dependence on water, which is drawn from neighboring basins. It also examines the effects of the exploitation of the water table, leakages in the supply network, the varying degrees of access to water and wastewater treatment. The article ends with some reflections on the challenges that will be faced by the city in supplying its future population with water.
(MEXICO, CITIES, MEGALOPOLIS, WATER RESOURCES, WATER SUPPLY, ECOSYSTEMS, ENVIRONMENT).
Spanish - pp. 285-320.
H. Izazola, Universidad Aut?noma Metropolitana-Xochimilco, Departamento de M?todos y Sistemas, Mexico.
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Aguiluz Casas, Grelsvia; V?zquez S?nchez, Miguel ?ngel; Molina Rosales, Dolores; Sald?var Moreno, Antonio.
Participatory environmental participation: From theory to practice in San Cristobal de Las Casas, Chiapas [Planeaci?n ambiental participativa: de la teor?a a la pr?ctica en San Crist?bal de Las Casas, Chiapas].
The theory of environmental planning postulates that social participation is an indispensable requirement for reducing the conflicts derived from the confrontation of various interests. In this respect, the aim of this study has been to provide a conceptual reconstruction of the participatory approach of three sectors (government, academic and civil) that converge in an environmental planning process, promoted by the Interdisciplinary and Civic Environmental Collective (CICE) in San Cristobal de las Casas, Chiapas. The comparative information was obtained from participatory observation in twenty-four group sessions (held between February and September 1998) and twenty semi-structured interviews; twelve with key informants from the group and eight with representatives from social organizations. The results show that the three sectors acknowledge the fact that social participation is required to produce changes on the local scale; however, there is no consensus on its meaning. There is a similar lack of clarity concerning concepts such as ?environmental problems? and ?civil society? as well as methodologies and communication mechanisms, management and social participation in local spheres which hampers the planning process. This analysis recognizes the need to advance in common conceptual proposals that will make it possible to go beyond social participation processes towards the construction of viable development.
(MEXICO, CITIES, ENVIRONMENT, GOVERNMENT POLICY, COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION, SOCIETY, ORGANIZATIONS).
Spanish - pp. 321-349.
G. Aguiluz Casas, M. ?. V?zquez S?nchez, Divisi?n Conservaci?n de la Biodiversidad, D. Molina Rosales, Divisi?n Poblaci?n y Salud, A. Sald?var Moreno, Coordinaci?n de Vinculaci?n, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Blvd. Abelardo L. Rodr?guez, 925, Zona del R?o, Tijuana, Mexico.
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Theoretical interpretation of the expansion and urban consolidation of the low-income population on the periphery (Interpretaci?n te?rica de los procesos de expansi?n y consolidaci?n urbana de la poblaci?n de bajos ingresos en las periferias].
Within the complex, dynamic urban phenomenon, I have concentrated on the expansion of cities towards their peripheries. I have analyzed their demographic, social and anthropological aspects, as well as those concerning urban structure, the environment, land ownership, low-income housing and service and infrastructural networks. Over the years, I have accumulated a considerable body of knowledge that has provided me with a better understanding of what happens in the expansion of cities.
In this article, I focussed on the urban periphery as process over time. I systematically analyzed the extensive southern periphery of Mexico City over a period of nearly thirty years, beginning with its urban expansion, characterized by an extremely scattered form of territorial occupation. I then examined its urban consolidation, characterized by the gradual occupation of vacant lots, and eventually explored the saturation and high densification of the same territory. This enabled me to identify certain common features in these processes of occupation that yielded a fairly consistent empirical basis from which I drew this theoretical interpretation. The model helps to explain how the variables of the process operate and how they interact to produce the urban expansion and consolidation of the periphery.
(MEXICO, CITIES, URBAN AREAS, URBAN STRUCTURE, URBANIZATION, URBAN CONCENTRATION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, PUBLIC SERVICES, POPULATION DENSITY, ENVIRONMENT, MODELS).
Spanish - pp. 351-374.
J. Bazant S., Universidad Aut?noma Metropolitana-Xochimilco, Mexico.
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Economic and territorial implications of the Mexican export boom [Implicaciones econ?mico-territoriales del auge exportador mexicano].
The first part of this article analyzes the performance of manufacturing exports in Mexico from the 1980s to the mid-1990s, as a result of the economic crisis and internal adjustment programs, within the context of the re-structuring of the world economy that began in industrialized countries during the 1970s. The second part describes the resultant changes in industrial geography, by identifying the industries that dominate manufacturing exports and determining their importance in employment and the sectoral GDP. Finally, the article suggests a number of industrial policy recommendations on the basis of the dynamism and location of the various manufacturing industries, according to their differing export capacities.
(MEXICO, FOREIGN TRADE, EXPORTS, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ECONOMIC RECESSION, EMPLOYMENT, INDUSTRY, INDUSTRIAL POLICY, INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT).
Spanish - pp. 375-413.
G. Olivera, Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias, UNAM, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
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Property tax in Hermosillo, Sonora [Impuesto predial en Hermosillo, Sonora].
The fact that property tax has traditionally been the main source of income for local governments in most countries accounts for the importance of its study within a national context of decentralization and increased powers and responsibilities for local governments. This led to the need to undertake and disseminate case studies on innovative aspects in the field of public policies, finance and the specific projects of local government, in order to be able to influence the design of actions in other places.
(MEXICO, CITIES, TAXES, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, DECENTRALIZATION, GOVERNMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT POLICY).
Spanish - pp. 415-439.
N. Bustamante Quintana, Direcci?n de Estudios Sociodemogr?ficos, El Instituto Nacional de Estad?stica, Geograf?a e Inform?tica (INEGI), Mexico.
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