NOTAS DE POBLACION, 2000, Vol. 27, No. 70
Transitional fiscal costs and demographic factors of the pension system reform of capitalization distribution [Costos fiscales de transici?n y factores demogr?ficos del cambio de sistemas de pensi?n de reparto a capitalizaci?n].
After the 1981 Chilean pension system reform, which shifted from a government run pay-as-you -go system to a private, fully funded one, many countries in Latin America have implemented or are considering reforms with an important funded component. We develop a simple model to assess the magnitude of the implicit government debt that needs to be made explicit by this policy, as well as the transitional fiscal costs that such a reform implies. We show that the liabilities and the associated fiscal costs are affected by the population age structure, old-age mortality, labour-market and pension system variables. By use of data from Latin American countries, we find that in several countries, especially those with more aged populations and high coverage systems, the pension debt is very high, and that a switch from unfunded to fully funded systems implies substantial fiscal costs, that may even turn out to be economically and politically unviable in some cases.
(LATIN AMERICA, RETIREMENT, RETIREMENT PENSIONS, PENSION SCHEMES, COSTS, AGE DISTRIBUTION, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS).
Spanish - pp. 7-32.
J. Bravo, Centro Latinoamericano y Caribe?o de Demografia (CELADE), Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, Santiago, Chile; A. Uthoff, Comisi?n Econ?mica para Am?rica Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), Av. Dag Hammarskj?ld s/n, Vitacura, Santiago, Chile.
authoff@eclac.cl.
***
Specific rates by reasons and companions for the migration: A contribution to the interpretation and the use of models of etarios patterns of migration [Tasas espec?ficas por motivos y acompa?antes de la migraci?n: una contribuci?n a la interpretaci?n y al uso de modelos de patrones etarios de migraci?n].
The age-specific selectivity of migration seems to be a constant in empirical studies on migration, whether the focus be rural-urban transition and the modernization of third-world societies or population mobility in the developed world. This consistency, attributable to the association between migration and the labour market -- an association revealed perhaps more systematically in the literature -- has made it possible to propose mathematical models for age- and sex-specific migration rates similar to those developed for fertility patterns and model life tables. Use of the proposed models seems to have been restricted by the number of parameters, the complexity of estimating them and the data required for their application.
A more specific and somewhat more modest objective of the study is to suggest alternative methodologies for the interpretation and modelling of age-specific migration profiles based on migration rates obtained empirically from the Regional Household Survey (PRAD) for 1993 in the State of S?o Paulo. In addition to information on the socio-demographic characteristics of the population and on the spatial movement and occupational background of migrants, the survey also included questions about the reasons for migration and about the identity of other persons accompanying the migrant head of household in the move. This information was used to calculate age-specific migration rates classified by cause of migration and by the identity of accompanying households members (ancillary migration).
The study opens with a review of empirical evidence relating to the age selectivity of migration in various contexts and in the State of S?o Paulo in the recent past. A brief account is then given of the pioneering work of Rogers and Castro in defining migratory patterns and of the scope and limitations of those models as applied to the migration rates obtained empirically from the PRAD surveys. This is followed by an analysis of migration rates in the State of S?o Paulo by stated reason and by composition of the household at the time of the latest move. Next, the author presents model migration rates by reason and accompanying household members and a model for the breakdown of empirical migration rates; he then goes on to discuss how well this model fits observed migration patterns in some areas within the state. Lastly, he applies these model rates to empirical migration rates for certain regions of the country for the purpose of interpreting and matching age patterns in net migration rates and simulating future demographic scenarios.
Like the migration models developed by Rogers and Castro (or any other model), those proposed here are not intended as a substitute for reality but as instruments that can help to reveal it or approximate it. Unlike other empirical demographic models, the meaning of the parameters is very straightforward and their effects on the rates are very clear. In this regard, one of the greatest virtues of the model rates presented here would seem to the possibility for the researcher to manipulate or intervene in migration intensity by reason or category of accompanying household members.
(BRAZIL, CITIES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION RATE, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, DIFFERENTIAL MIGRATION, MIGRANTS, LABOUR MARKET, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, SIMULATION).
Spanish - pp. 33-85.
P. de Martino Jannuzzi, Fundaci?n Sistema Estadual de An?lisis de Datos (SEADE), Ave. Casper Libero 464, 11 andar, Sao Paulo 01033, Brazil.
***
Boleda, Mario; Arriaga, Eduardo E.
Latin America: Mortality by accidents and violence against the people [Am?rica Latina: mortalidad por accidentes y por violencia contra las personas].
This study highlights the significance of various causes of death which do not receive sufficient attention. These causes come under the headings of accidents and acts of violence (homicides and suicides), which often account for an appreciable percentage of total deaths.
To this end, the data for four Latin American countries (Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay) in the late 1980s and early 1990s were examined. These four countries share a Hispanic tradition and have similar mortality rates, but the percentage of deaths caused by the above-mentioned factors differs considerably.
The methodology employed in the study is based on the use of temporary life expectancy (between 15 and 75 years of age) and of years of life lost as basic indicators. This approach made it possible to determine how many years of life were lost as a result of the different causes of death included under these headings.
The study's findings show that, between the ages of 15 and 75, men lost approximately twice as many years of life as women did (7-9 versus 4-5). This higher death rate was also apparent when accidents and acts of violence were the only causes of death considered. In fact, if a plan for eliminating the increase in the male mortality rate attributable to these factors were implemented, the life expectancy of the male population between 15 and 75 years of age would increase by one year in Argentina and Uruguay and by two years in Chile and Mexico.
(LATIN AMERICA, ARGENTINA, CHILE, MEXICO, URUGUAY, MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH, VIOLENT DEATHS, VIOLENCE, HOMICIDE, SUICIDE, ACCIDENTS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, LIFE EXPECTANCY, INDICATORS).
Spanish - pp. 87-119.
M. Boleda, Grupo de Estudios Socio-Demogr?ficos (GREDES), Universidad Nacional de Salta, Argentina; E. E. Arriaga, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC, U.S.A.
***
Demographic tendencies in Latin America: Challenges for the fairness in the scope of the health [Tendencias demogr?ficas en Am?rica Latina: desaf?os para la equidad en el ?mbito de la salud].
The process of demographic transition that has taken place in Latin America in the last few decades has modified the population profile of countries in the region. There are wide differences from one country to another in terms of demographic growth and the age structure of the population, and these, in turn, determine the type and magnitude of the problems that countries will have to address in the coming decades. This article examines the challenges posed by the characteristics of population growth in the health sector, with emphasis on the situation of the most deprived social groups.
(LATIN AMERICA, PUBLIC HEALTH, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, POPULATION COMPOSITION, AGE DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION DYNAMICS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
Spanish - pp. 121-147.
S. Schkolnik, Centro Latinoamericano y Caribe?o de Demografia (CELADE), Divisi?n de Poblaci?n de la CEPAL, Av. Dag Hammarskj?ld s/n, Vitacura, Santiago, Chile.
***
Intraregional mobility in the context of the migratory changes in Brazil in period 1970-1991: The case of the Metropolitan Region of S?o Paulo [La movilidad intrarregional en el contexto de los cambios migratorios en Brasil en el per?odo 1970-1991: el caso de la Regi?n Metropolitana de S?o Paulo].
The metropolitization process has become a global phenomenon and is associated with the progressive urbanization of many countries, particularly in Latin America. Migration from less developed areas within these countries has played a key role in this process. As a consequence, Latin America's metropolitan areas have not only been rapidly increasing in number during recent decades but have also been spreading outward from their core municipalities, where large percentages of the population, wealth and, of course, regional and national economic activity are generally concentrated. The situation in the State of S?o Paulo reflects this trend. Almost half of the state's population and industrial output are concentrated in the S?o Paulo metropolitan area, and for many decades now it has been the destination of a large number of migrants from other less developed areas of Brazil, such as Minas Gerais, Paran? and various states in the north-eastern part of the country. At the same time, the urban area has been steadily spreading out from its core, the Municipality of S?o Paulo. Although this municipality is still the main port of entry for migrants from other Brazilian states, it has become a net exporter of population to other municipalities within the metropolitan area. Recent data show that, although migratory flows from other states have begun to diminish considerably, the expansion of the S?o Paulo metropolitan area has continued apace and is encompassing new and increasingly distant parts of this region, thereby demonstrating that, even in the presence of low levels of migration, the redistributive potential of metropolitan areas such as S?o Paulo is considerable. This fact should be taken into account in the preparation of analyses intended to serve as a basis for the design of local and regional planning policies.
(BRAZIL, CITIES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION FLOW, URBAN ATTRACTION, URBANIZATION, URBAN AREAS, URBAN STRUCTURE, URBAN CONCENTRATION, REGIONAL PLANNING).
Spanish - pp. 149-185.
J. M. Pinto da Cunha, Instituto de Filosof?a y Ciencias Humanas y Departamento de Estudios de Poblaci?n (NEPO) de la Universidad Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, Brazil.
***
NOTAS DE POBLACION, 2001, Vol. 28, No. 71
Indirect estimation of demographic indicators for small areas. The situation in Latin America [Estimaciones indirectas de indicadores demogr?ficos para ?reas menores. Situaci?n en Am?rica Latina].
This article analyses such sources of demographic information as population censuses, vital records and specific surveys. It examines their limitations together with their advantages and disadvantages in estimating demographic indicators for small areas. In view of the difficulty of obtaining the information needed to prepare such estimates, a discussion is presented of various "indirect" methods for estimating population size and the demand for family planning services that are used in Latin America. These methods are based on the use of administrative records and on a combination of different sources. Although there have been some problems with the studies published in Latin America, they nonetheless indicate that it is feasible to employ these methods. Efforts to improve existing sources of information should continue, however, as should research on the subject. In addition, these methods should be tried out in other settings within the region so that a wider range of approaches to the estimation of demographic indicators for small areas can be developed.
(LATIN AMERICA, ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS, POPULATION SIZE, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, POPULATION CENSUSES, VITAL STATISTICS, VITAL RECORDS, SURVEYS).
Spanish - pp. 9-20.
G. Bay, Centro Latinoamericano y Caribe?o de Demografia (CELADE), Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, Santiago, Chile.
***
de Lourdes Teixeira Jardim, Maria.
The use of symptomatic variables in estimating spatial distribution of the population in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil [Uso de variables sintom?ticas para estimar la distribuci?n espacial de la poblaci?n].
The use of symptomatic variables to estimate the regional growth of small areas is just beginning to be applied in Brazil as an indicator of changes in population growth trends.
This article presents a number of methods for updating the population data for the municipalities of the State of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil and proposes the implementation of a population estimation methodology based on the use of symptomatic variables.
Several authors have used methodologies based on socioeconomic variables as indicators of demographic growth. Some of these methodologies are used to estimate the urban population of the State, while others allow for disaggregation at the municipal level. Another five studies have used symptomatic variables for estimating the population of small areas, including average number of employed, number of industrial establishments, data from agricultural surveys, number of hospital beds, electoral statistics, newspaper circulation figures and statistics on enrolment in primary education.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of various symptomatic variables for estimating the State's total population distribution by municipalities throughout the 1990s based on the results of the 1991 census.
(BRAZIL, ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION).
Spanish - pp. 21-49.
M. de Lourdes Teixeira Jardim, Fundaci?n de Econom?a y Estad?stica, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
***
Symptomatic variables in population estimates at the canton level in Costa Rica [Variables sintom?ticas en las estimaciones poblacionales a nivel cantonal en Costa Rica].
Since Costa Rica did not carry out a population and housing census for the 1990 round, it has been necessary to find other methods for arriving at estimates of the country's main demographic features. This article analyses the use of such variables as voting lists, vital statistics and school enrolment records in the preparation of population estimates at the canton level. To this end, four methodologies that proved to be satisfactory options were applied.
(COSTA RICA, ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, POPULATION CENSUSES, HOUSING CENSUSES, STATISTICAL DATA, VITAL STATISTICS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
Spanish - pp. 51-71.
E. A. Chaves Esquivel, Universidad Nacional Aut?noma de Costa Rica.
***
Estimation methods for small areas and their application in measuring the use of contraceptives [M?todos de estimaci?n para ?reas peque?as y una aplicaci?n a la prevalencia anticonceptiva].
During the implementation of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Programme, demand has been growing for information on geographic areas and population groups that have not been defined in the design of these surveys. This article reviews the main technical obstacles that the various estimation methodologies will have to overcome in order to meet that demand and proposes an alternative regression-based estimation methodology.
(ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, FAMILY PLANNING, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, SURVEYS, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS).
Spanish - pp. 73-90.
A. Aliago, Macro Internacional Inc.
***
Estimating demand for family planning services in the departments and provinces of Peru [Estimaci?n de la demanda de planificaci?n familiar para los departamentos y provincias de Per?].
The purpose of this study is to generate contraception prevalence rates for small administrative units (provinces) and to quantify subgroups of the female population who are considered to be users of family planning methods. The methodology employed combines regional and national data from Demographic Health Surveys (ENDES) 1992-1993 and data from the 1993 Population and Housing Census. The procedure first selects a set of variables related to the use of contraceptives, which have been researched by both the ENDES and the census. Then multivariate techniques are applied to the survey data in order to identify the two most important variables of contraceptive use. Regional estimates of demand for family planning are drawn on the basis of the ENDES results for these variables and their respective categories. The census data are used to generate contingency tables showing the number of women who are in formal and consensual unions, classified according to the variables identified and their respective categories at the provincial level. The provincial prevalence rate is then estimated by means of a linear combination of regional prevalence rates with provincial weightings obtained from the contingency tables. Thus, results are obtained by province, for the 13 administrative regions covered by ENDES II. Provincial estimates are expressed as rates or proportions of women in formal and consensual unions for each component group of demand for contraceptive methods: unsatisfied demand, actual use and failure of the method, the sum of which represents total demand.
(PERU, PROVINCES, FAMILY PLANNING, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, CONTRACEPTION FAILURES, MARITAL UNION, CONSENSUAL UNION, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, POPULATION CENSUSES, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS).
Spanish - pp. 91-138.
G. Vallenas Ochoa, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Peru.
***
Estimating income and poverty in small geographic areas: Recent progress in Latin America and the Caribbean [Estimaciones de ingreso y pobreza para ?reas geogr?ficas menores: avances recientes en Am?rica Latina y el Caribe].
Recently developed procedures for the estimation of income, consumption and poverty for small geographic areas in Latin America and the Caribbean are reviewed. These methods, of increasing application since the mid-nineties, are based on the combination of data from household or living standard surveys with that from national population and housing censuses. Multivariate statistical methods are used, with some applications specifically developed for this purpose, including indicators of the reliability of the estimates at different levels of aggregation. The new procedures are complementary to, and in some aspects represent improvements to the traditional indicators of unsatisfied basic needs, so their use will probably increase in the region, specially once the censuses of the 2000 round are taken.
(LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN, TERRITORIAL DIVISIONS, REGIONS, ESTIMATES, POVERTY, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, CENSUSES, SURVEYS).
Spanish - pp. 139-148.
J. Bravo, Centro Latinoamericano y Caribe?o de Demografia (CELADE), Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, Santiago, Chile.
***
Hentschel, Jesko; Lanjouw, Jean Olson; Lanjouw, Peter; Poggi, Javier.
Combining census and survey data in studying the spatial dimensions of poverty: The case of Ecuador [Combinaci?n de datos censales y de encuestas para estudiar las dimensiones espaciales de la pobreza: el caso de Ecuador].
Poverty maps, providing information on the spatial distribution of living standards, are an important tool for policy making and economic research. Such maps can be used by policymakers to guide the allocation of transfers and to inform policy design. They can also provide the means to investigate the relationship between growth and other economic, environmental or social outcomes, and distribution within a country. A major impediment to the development of poverty maps has been that the necessary credible income or consumption data are typically available only from relatively small surveys. Census data have the required size, but not generally the required information. We demonstrate for the case of Ecuador how sample survey data can be combined with census data to yield predicted poverty rates over the population covered by the census. These poverty rates are found to be rather precisely measured, even at fairly disaggregated levels. However, beyond a certain level of spatial disaggregation the standard errors rise rapidly.
(ECUADOR, POVERTY, STANDARD OF LIVING, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, SOCIAL CONDITIONS, ENVIRONMENT, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, CENSUSES, SAMPLE SURVEYS).
Spanish - pp. 149-183.
J. Hentschel, World Bank; J. O. Lanjouw and P. Lanjouw, Free University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; J. Poggi, Banca y Seguros, Lima, Peru.
***
Alternative indicators for targeting social spending in Paraguay [Indicadores alternativos para focalizar el gasto social en Paraguay].
The aim of this research project is to estimate the percentages of the population, by district and department, that cannot afford a specified basket of staple consumer goods. The study draws on information from the 1997/1998 Integrated Household Survey and the most recent National Population and Housing Census, together with econometric techniques and analytical tools that have recently been developed for this purpose.
The estimates prepared at the district level are as representative as census information is (i.e., more representative than survey data) and are based on the wide range of data regarding the population's living standards that are gathered in surveys (something which censuses cannot do). Hence, the information provided by poverty maps based on income and consumption patterns can be used as a tool to design efficient policies for increasing the purchasing power of poor households in Paraguay.
(PARAGUAY, ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, POVERTY, STANDARD OF LIVING, INCOME, ESTIMATES, INDICATORS, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, CENSUSES, SURVEYS).
Spanish - pp. 185-221.
M. Robles, Programa para el Mejoramiento de las Encuestas y la Medici?n de las Condiciones de Vida en Am?rica Latina y el Caribe, Paraguay.
***
NOTAS DE POBLACION, 2001, Vol. 28, No. 72
Demographic analysis: New theories, new models and new data [An?lisis demogr?fico: nuevas teor?as, nuevos modelos y nuevos datos].
This paper reviews relatively new theoretical developments in demography, the models formulated to falsify new theories, and the data required to put the models to an empirical test. I review new insights in the explanation of fertility decline that derive from heavy emphasis on social networks and social interactions, explain the advantages to be had from deployment of complex multistate models in the examination of a number of processes, describe briefly the promise of sequence analysis as a tool for the study of life cycle stages and transitions and identify the power of matching models for the study of very diverse phenomena, from nuptiality to residential arrangements. Finally I argue forcefully for the continued use of microsimulation as a verification and exploratory tool.
(DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, MODELS, SIMULATION, MICROSIMULATION, FERTILITY DECLINE, NUPTIALITY, LIFE CYCLE).
Spanish - pp. 7-38.
A. Palloni, Department of Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, U.S.A.
***
Financial stability of pensions based on notional accounts [La estabilidad finaciera de las pensiones basadas en cuentas nocionales].
Various European countries have modified the formula for establishing pension levels by adopting a system of notional accounts. These accounts are used to establish the benefits corresponding to each individual, but preserve the pay-as-you-go method of financing. This article considers the idea that notional accounts, with an appropriate choice of adjustment methods, may automatically provide financial equilibrium in the short term. If correct, this would be a great advantage, as it would isolate the fiscal budget from demographic pressures, while at the same time protecting pensions from fiscal pressures. The article demonstrates, however, that benefits based on notional accounts cannot automatically provide financial equilibrium in the short term. It is also suggested that if indexing methods are chosen in a given manner and the deviations revert rapidly to the median, the insuring institution can achieve financial stability in the long term. The rules on benefits adopted in the 1990s by Italy, Latvia, Poland and Sweden do not exhibit this characteristic. It is quite likely, however, that long-term stability is not such a conceal objective, as political intervention takes place in the short term.
(EUROPE, PENSION FUNDS, RETIREMENT PENSIONS, FINANCING, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, NATIONAL BUDGET).
Spanish - pp. 39-71.
S. Vald?s Prieto, Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile.
svaldes@volcan.facea.puc.cl.
***
Age misreporting by older persons in censuses [Problemas en la declaraci?n de edad de la poblaci?n adulta mayor en los censos].
Several research works have raised concern over the large proportion of elderly persons recorded in censuses. The present study therefore analyses the quality of census information with regard to the age of reporting older adults. Its findings indicate that these data contain some errors. For the purposes of this study, eight Latin American countries at different stages of demographic transition were selected. Serious inconsistencies emerged when the age structure of the population aged 50 and over (and 70 and over) was compared over time or with respect to more developed countries, in that an excessively large proportion of persons were reported in the upper age group. It was further observed that these irregularities bore a strong correlation to a digit preference index calculated for the age group 52-82. Analysis of digit preferences shows that this type of age misreporting is particularly common in the older population, among whom the most recurring trend is a high preference for the digit 0 and also, though to a lesser extent, the digit 5. The present study also examines the findings of a number of analyses that point to evidence of another form of misreporting which is frequent among the elderly: a tendency to exaggerate age, as shown by evaluations based on the intercensal cohort method used in the majority of Latin American countries.
(LATIN AMERICA, AGE REPORTING, AGED, DATA COLLECTION, CENSUSES, QUALITY OF DATA, DATA EVALUATION, DIGIT PREFERENCE, ERRORS).
Spanish - pp. 73-121.
F. Del Popolo, Divisi?n de Poblaci?n, Centro Latinoamericano y Caribe?o de Demografia (CELADE), Santiago, Chile.
***
Demographic factors that influence patterns of settlement or circularity in Mexican/United States migration [Factores demogr?ficos del asentamiento y la circularidad en la migraci?n M?xico-Estados Unidos].
Since the 1980s, Mexican migration to the United States is composed by two distinctive migratory modes: on the one hand, the traditional circular and temporary migration and, on the other, settled migration of Mexicans in that country. In this article, we examine the socio-demographic factors that explain why some Mexican immigrants choose to settle down in the United States, while others engage in the traditional mode of circular migration. To that end, we use logistic regression analysis, which allows us to determine the relative weight of each socio-demographic variable on the characterization and differentiation of each component of the current Mexican-US migration process. Specifically, we find that gender differences do not have a direct effect on determining any of the two migratory modes, but rather it is mediated by other socio-demographic conditions such as life cycle and the position in the family structure.
(UNITED STATES, MEXICO, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, CIRCULAR MIGRATION, TEMPORARY MIGRATION, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, IMMIGRANTS, FAMILY COMPOSITION, LIFE CYCLE, METHODOLOGY).
Spanish - pp. 123-158.
A. I. Canales Cer?n, Universidad de Guadalajara, Mexico.
***
Dealing with an endogenous process: The relationship between female employment outside of the home and the power and autonomy of married women within the home in Mexico [Abordando un proceso end?geno: la relaci?n entre el trabajo extradom?stico femenino y el poder y autonom?a de las mujeres casadas dentro del hogar en M?xico].
The effect that female labour market participation may have on the levels of married women's autonomy and power in the household is a complex problem because of the endogenity of variables involved in the analysis. Conventional studies have mostly explored the associations between these variables avoiding any causality assumption. However, some econometric methods offer an alternative way to approach the problem that ameliorate the estimation bias that otherwise would occur when modeling a married woman's economic activity as a predictor of her power and autonomy in the household. This work examines the links between Mexican married women's work activities and their levels of power and autonomy within the family, using the "Instrumental Variable" technique. Data for the analysis comes from the Mexican Encuesta Nacional de Planificaci?n Familiar 1995. The findings suggest that women's participation in the work force has a significant and positive effect on their levels of autonomy, but little effect on their decision-making power within the household.
(MEXICO, MARRIED WOMEN, DECISION MAKING, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, WOMEN?S ROLE, WOMEN?S STATUS, MARITAL ROLES, SEX ROLES, EMPLOYMENT, LABOUR MARKET, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION, METHODOLOGY, ECONOMIC MODELS).
Spanish - pp. 159-188.
I. Casique, Centro Regional de Investigaciones, Multidisciplinarias (CRIM), Cuernavaca, Mexico.
irene@correo.crim-unam.mx.
***
Correlated health behaviors and the Latin American mortality transition [Los comportamientos de salud correlacionados y la transici?n de la mortalidad en Am?rica Latina].
During the 1980s mortality continued to decline throughout Latin America despite a 8.9% fall in real per capita income. Primary health care, usage continued to increase despite its rising cost. I investigate these counterintuitive results by examining two demographically important health behaviours, child immunization and maternal care, in two countries, Colombia and Paraguay. I construct hierarchical datasets by matching individual and household data from 1990 Demographic and Health Surveys to local ministry of health immunization coverage data and recent census data. I use the proportion of older children in the index municipio who have immunization cards and the proportion whose mothers used prenatal services as lagged social interaction measures and add them to multilevel models. The social interaction measures significantly increase the probability an individual child was fully immunized and her delivery professionally attended. Moreover, the social interaction measures reduce the cluster and municipio-level random effects in the cases of immunization in Paraguay and attended delivery in both countries. I use my results and reported coverage and mortality data from the countries to show that social interaction effects operating through immunization and delivery care services averted 3%-4% of all expected child deaths and 9%-16% of expected maternal deaths in 1980 and 1990. Social interaction effects probably operated through other pathways as well to increase household health production. These results support the view of demographic transitions as socially mediated processes and help explain the robustness of Latin America's mortality transition.
(COLOMBIA, PARAGUAY, MORTALITY DECLINE, CHILD MORTALITY, MATERNAL MORTALITY, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, IMMUNIZATION, PRENATAL CARE, SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT, METHODOLOGY).
Spanish - pp. 189-228.
M. J. McQuestion, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, U.S.A.
***
NOTAS DE POBLACION, 2001, Vol. 28, No. 73
Tapinos, Georges; Delaunay, Daniel.
It is possible to be really spoken of the globalization of the migration flows? [?Se puede hablar realmente de la globalizaci?n de los flujos migratorios?].
International migrations had played a key role in the integration of the economies on both sides of the Atlantic until the First World War, and between the countries from the South and North after the second war. Over these periods, labour moved hand in hand with capital mobility, and migration was an essential element of economic integration. Currently, the international migration presents a paradoxical relationship with the new process of globalization of the economies. On the one hand, migratory and economic policies associated with globalization aim explicitly or implicitly to prevent the mobility of the people; and on the other, market mechanisms which these policies seek to restore tend to have multiple effects which can increase or decrease migratory flows.
This paper presents two readings of this recent paradoxical evolution. First, it analyses the statistics of flows and stocks of migrants since 1965 to examine the variation and the worldwide geographical distribution of this mobility. This analysis reveals that some assertions of the globalization of international migrations to be unwarranted. The second part discusses the possible reasons of what seems to be an exception to the process of economic globalization. Two hyphoteses are examined: either the observation period is too short for the demographic, economic and political contexts to have produced their full effect, or the diverse and contradictory effects of the interaction between migration and globalization make it impossible to identify a clear-cut trend.
(INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION FLOW, GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY, MIGRATION POLICY, ECONOMIC POLICY, MARKET, LABOUR, LABOUR MARKET, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS).
Spanish - pp. 15-49.
G. Tapinos, INED, 133 bd Davout, F-75020 Paris, France; D. Delaunay, IRD, 213 rue Lafayette, F-75480 Paris cedex 10, France.
***
Villa, Miguel; Mart?nez Pizarro, Jorge.
Trends and patterns of international migration in Latin America and the Caribbean [Tendencias y patrones de la migraci?n internacional en Am?rica Latina y el Caribe].
This analysis of the main trends and patterns of migration in Latin America and the Caribbean opens with a description of existing data sources and of the CELADE project, Investigation of International Migration in Latin America (IMILA), which quantifies migration and describes migrant stocks on the basis of information drawn from national censuses. Migration in the region falls into three broad patterns. The first relates to immigration into Latin America from abroad, which has declined in intensity in recent decades; moreover, immigrant stocks diminished as a result of non-renewal of flows, return movements and the effects of mortality. The second pattern, intra-regional migration, has been fuelled by structural trends (inequality in economic and social development) as well as short-term factors. Having doubled in the 1970s, the stock of such migrants has tended to stabilize. The third pattern is that of emigration of Latin American and Caribbean nationals to the United States, where the stock of immigrants from the region doubled between 1980 and 1990. Other issues examined are the composition of migratory flows by gender, the percentage of skilled persons and the positive and negative effects of migration which interact contrapuntally at the structural and individual levels. The study concludes with some reflections on current migratory trends. A brief analysis of the relationship between migration and development trends reveals the potential that open regionalism and integration can have within the broader sphere of globalization. Migration policies, if they are to be valid and effective, must be based on a concerted approach at the international level and be viewed as yet another development strategy.
(LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION MEASUREMENT, MIGRATION FLOW, MIGRATION TRENDS, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, DIFFERENTIAL MIGRATION, LABOUR MIGRATION, RETURN MIGRATION, MIGRATION POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY).
Spanish - pp. 51-99.
M. Villa and J. Mart?nez Pizarro, ECLAC-Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE), Santiago, Chile.
***
Trends and patterns of international migration in the Caribbean countries [Tendencias y patrones de migraci?n internacional de los pa?ses del Caribe].
The current pattern of Caribbean migration includes movements both within the region and from the region to North America and Western Europe. There are also trends of increasing return migration, with the accompanying transfers of financial capital, information and skills. Transnational linkages have developed at the household and community levels and have become a characteristic feature of Caribbean migration.
This paper outlines the patterns of outward and return migrations within the region and outward from the region, with emphasis on the decade of the 1990s. The focus is upon regular migration flows, based on Caribbean census data and immigration statistics from the United States and Canada. The characteristics of the migrants in terms of age, sex, education and occupation are shown to be highly selective, with proportionately more young, female, educated and skilled persons among the migrants than in the national populations. The implications for Caribbean development are discussed, and the need for policies designed to optimize the impact of migration addressed.
(CARIBBEAN, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION MEASUREMENT, MIGRATION FLOW, MIGRATION TRENDS, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, DIFFERENTIAL MIGRATION, SELECTIVE MIGRATION, RETURN MIGRATION, EDUCATION, OCCUPATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS, DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS).
Spanish - pp. 101-128.
E. Thomas-Hope, West Indies University, Kingston, Jamaica.
ethope@uwimona.edu.jm.
***
Exodus, mobility and circulation: New modalities of the skilled migration [?xodo, movilidad y circulaci?n: nuevas modalidades de la migraci?n calificada].
The essential aim of this paper is to analyse the subject of migration by skilled individuals as it relates to development. Thus, the first part provides a summary of the different approaches to the subject that have been discussed over recent decades. The second part seeks to identify the characteristics and tendencies of such migration in Latin America, including flows within the region and those from the region to the United States. The paper ends with some conclusions regarding the causes that give rise to skilled migration and the different measures that have been implemented to reverse these movements or neutralize their effects, such as initiatives to encourage the creation of networks linking emigrant professionals with those who remain in their countries of origin.
(LATIN AMERICA, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY, EXODUS, SKILLED WORKERS, MIGRANT WORKERS, OCCUPATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS, MIGRATION POLICY, MIGRATION TRENDS, MIGRATION FLOW, DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS).
Spanish - pp. 129-162.
A. Pellegrino, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la Rep?blica, Montevideo, Uruguay.
apelleg@fcsum.edu.uy.
***
Martine, George; Hakkert, Ralph; Miguel Guzm?n, Jos?.
Social aspects of international migration [Aspectos sociales de la migraci?n internacional: consideraciones preliminares].
The study of international migration has re-emerged during the last decade the importance of this issue in a globalized world as a result of with significant changes in the location and movement of production factors. The population movements have enormous social and economic repercussions, forcing public authorities to take new decisions.
This study reviews some of the issues relating to the social impact of international migration, such as: international migration and globalization; the relative importance of demographic factors in relation to migration trends; migration chains, remittances and development of the communities of origin; migration selectivity, xenophobia and discrimination, and the relationship between reproductive health, gender equity and international migration.
Migration is shown to have two-way or opposite socioeconomic implications. Both positive and negative effects are possible, both on individuals and on the communities of origin and destination. This underscores the importance of the recommendation of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) concerning the need to find formulas and policies that help to reinforce the positive effects of international migration and reduce its negative consequences.
(INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, PLACE OF ORIGIN, PLACE OF DESTINATION, MIGRATION TRENDS, MIGRATION POLICY SELECTIVE MIGRATION, DISCRIMINATION, REMITTANCES, FAMILY PLANNING).
Spanish - pp. 163-193.
G. Martine, R. Hakkert, J. Miguel Guzm?n, Equipo de Apoyo T?cnico del FNUAP para America Latina y el Caribe.
***
Migration and remittances: A case study of the Caribbean [Migraci?n y remesas: un estudio de caso del Caribe].
This paper looks at issues related to migration and remittances in the Caribbean recognising that these flows are related to the prior decision to migrate. It discusses various types of remittances and provides estimates of the flow of remittances to selected Caribbean countries during the period 1989 to 1999. The data shows significant volatility in the flow of remittances, some of which may be related to errors in measurement. It observes that the flow of remittances to these countries have increased significant in recent years due to greater macroeconomic stability and liberalisation of financial markets in some countries. While remittances have contributed significantly to these economies as measured by the relative to GDP and exports of goods and services, the levels seem rather low in relation to the phenomenal amount of migration that these countries experienced. The paper then discusses ways in which remittances can contribute more to the development of these countries and measures to improve the flow of such resources.
(CARIBBEAN, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, REMITTANCES, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, DEVELOPMENT, MARKET, MIGRATION MEASUREMENT, ERRORS).
Spanish - pp. 195-219.
W. Samuel, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank.
***
Canales, Alejandro I.; Zlolniski, Christian.
Transnational communities and migration in the era of the globalization [Comunidades transnacionales y migraci?n en la era de la globalizaci?n].
Currently, international migration entails a complex web of exchanges and movements of people, money, goods and information. A number of scholars have proposed the notion of transnational communities to help in arriving at new ways of understanding the migratory process within the current context of globalization. This article presents a critical evaluation of the transnational community model and identifies the principal theoretical and methodological challenges posed by this model. Particular attention is devoted to the way in which the relationship between globalization and the formation of transnational communities is conceptualized in this model, as well as these communities' potential for dealing with the economic, social, and political implications of globalization. The article closes with a discussion of the demands that this critical review of the transnational community model places upon public policy-making in the communities of origin and destination of transnational migrant workers.
(INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, REMITTANCES, MIGRANT WORKERS, PLACE OF ORIGIN, PLACE OF DESTINATION, METHODOLOGY, ECONOMIC MODELS).
Spanish - pp. 221-252.
A. I. Canales, Departamento de Estudios Regionales-INESER, Universidad de Guadalajara, Mexico, C. Zlolniski, Departamento de Estudios Sociales, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Mexico.
acanales@megared.net.mx.
crisz@colef.mx.
***
Reflections on the Group of Puebla in search of a pending dialogue [Reflexiones sobre el grupo de Puebla en busca de un di?logo pendiente].
There used to be a gap to be filled on the international scene, i.e., the lack of a multilateral forum that would not only attend the complexity of the migration issue from Panama to Canada, but also be open to the proposals of non-governmental organizations. The Group of Puebla has come to fill in the gap. The first part of the article explains: origins, formal aspects, characteristics of its members, main issues, agenda and the commitment of the forum. Also, the reader can grab a series of personal thoughts about the importance of the forum for the region, its immediate future and advances. Those deal with the possibility to have "expulsion countries", "reception countries" in terms of migration, as well as authorities that protect the border and implement the foreign policy of their country to sit down and dialogue at a same table. For that reason, the nature of the forum forces to consider the migration problem in an integral way and to seek to reduce the distance between some positions that are apparently irreconcilable. The Group has the opportunity to promote a better understanding of the migratory phenomenon, identify and suggest possible specific migratory policies and actions. This cooperative approach will fortify the relations among participating countries.
(INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS, NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, MIGRATION POLICY, GOVERNMENT POLICY).
Spanish - pp. 253-272.
G. Mohar, Mexican Embassy in Washington, D.C., U.S.A.
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Legal norms for the protection of the migrant workers [Normas legales para la protecci?n de los trabajadores migrantes].
Migration is often perceived negatively by host Governments and local communities alike. Such perception triggers reactions resulting in the mistreatment of migrant workers who are subject to hostility, exploitation and denial of their human rights.
The paper presents an overview of the relevant international instruments and standards protecting the rights of migrant workers, at the universal and regional level. Under international law, the rights of migrant workers stem from a number of sources. There are several treaties whose provisions are applicable to all human beings, and therefore also to migrant workers, and others which are specifically aimed at them irrespective of their legal status or length of stay. In addition, many of the applicable rights are part of customary law, and must be observed by all States.
The main challenge of the international human rights regime, therefore, is to ensure compliance by States. Steps should be taken to promote the effective respect of the rights of migrant workers, and specific measures are proposed.
(MIGRATION, MIGRANT WORKERS, HUMAN RIGHTS, INTERNATIONAL LAW, INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS, GOVERNMENT POLICY, LEGAL STATUS, DISCRIMINATION).
Spanish - pp. 273-303.
R. Perruchoud, Organizaci?n Internacional para las Migraciones (OIM).
rperruchoud@iom.int.
***
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