POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, 2000, Vol. 26, No. 4
Population and resources: An exploration of reproductive and environmental externalities.
This article identifies four types of social externalities associated with fertility behavior. Three are shown to be pronatalist in their effects. These three are exemplified by the way theories of economic growth treat fertility and natural resources, the way population growth and economic stress in poor countries are seen by environmental and resource economists, and the way development economists accommodate environmental stress in their analysis of poverty. It is shown that the fourth type of externality, in which children are regarded as an end in themselves, can even provide an invidious link between fertility decisions and the use of the local natural-resource base among poor rural households in poor countries. The fourth type is used to develop a theory of fertility transitions in the contemporary world; the theory views such transitions as disequilibrium phenomena.
(FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FERTILITY TRENDS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, ENVIRONMENT, NATURAL RESOURCES, POVERTY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, POPULATION GROWTH, VALUE OF CHILDREN, PREFERENCES, ECONOMIC THEORY).
English - pp. 643-689.
P. Dasgupta, Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge, U.K.
***
Casterline, John B.; Sinding, Steven W.
Unmet need for family planning in developing countries and implications for population policy.
Unmet need for family planning has been a core concept in international population discourse for several decades. This article reviews the history of unmet need and the development of increasingly refined methods of its empirical measurement and delineates the main questions that have been raised about unmet need during the past decade, some of which concern the validity of the concept and others its role in policy debates. The discussion draws heavily on empirical research conducted during the 1990s, much of it localized, in-depth studies combining quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Of the causes of unmet need other than those related to access to services, three emerge as especially salient: lack of necessary knowledge about contraceptive methods, social opposition to their use, and health concerns about possible side effects. The article argues that the concept of unmet need for family planning, by joining together contraceptive behavior and fertility preferences, encourages an integration of family planning programs and broader development approaches to population policy. By focusing on the fulfillment of individual aspirations, unmet need remains a defensible rationale for the formulation of population policy and a sensible guide to the design of family planning programs.
(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, FAMILY PLANNING POLICY, POPULATION POLICY, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, KNOWLEDGE OF CONTRACEPTIVES, PREFERENCES, SOCIAL NORMS, HEALTH, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT).
English - pp. 691-723.
J. B. Casterline, Policy Research Division, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskj?ld Plaza, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.; Steven W. Sinding, Center for Population and Family Health, Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, New York, NY 10032, U.S.A.
ss1617@columbia.edu; jcasterline@popcouncil.org.
***
Local and foreign models of reproduction in Nyanza Province, Kenya.
This article uses colonial archival records, surveys conducted in the 1960s, and surveys and focus group discussions in the 1990s to describe three distinct but temporally overlapping cultural models of reproduction in a rural community in Kenya between the 1930s and the present. The first model, "large families are rich," was slowly undermined by developments brought about by the integration of Kenya into the British empire. This provoked the collective formulation of a second local model, "small families are progressive," which retained the same goal of wealth but viewed a smaller family as a better strategy for achieving it. The third model, introduced by the global networks of the international population movement in the 1960s, augmented the second model with the deliberate control of fertility using clinic-provided methods of family planning. By the 1990s this global model had begun to be domesticated as local clinics routinely promoted family planning and as men and women in Nyanza began to use family planning and to tell others of their motivations and experiences.
(KENYA, CITIES, RURAL AREAS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, CULTURE, CULTURAL CHANGE, FAMILY SIZE, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, FAMILY PLANNING, ATTITUDE).
English - pp. 725-759.
S. Cotts Watkins, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, U.S.A.
***
Basu, Alaka Malwade; Amin, Sajeda.
Conditioning factors for fertility decline in Bengal: History, language identity, and openness to innovations.
This article argues that looking solely for the immediate causes of reproductive change may distort our understanding of policy options by failing to take into account the historical and cultural factors that affect not only the impact of policies and programs but their very nature and existence. The article examines the historical origins and spread of "modern" ideas in Bangladesh and the state of West Bengal in India. It concludes that a colonial history in which education and modernization processes took hold very early among the elites in the larger Bengal region was paradoxically accompanied by a strong allegiance to the Bengali language. This strong sense of language identity has facilitated and reinforced the diffusion of modern ideas both within and between the two Bengali-speaking regions. Thus, to understand the fertility decline in Bangladesh, for example, one needs to look also at cultural boundaries. In this case, the cultural commonality through language facilitates the spread of new ideas across the two Bengals. In turn, the strong sense of language identity has facilitated mass mobilization more easily and intensely within the two Bengals. Shaped by these processes, Bangladesh and West Bengal today are more amenable to social change than many other parts of South Asia and the Middle East.
(BANGLADESH, INDIA, CITIES, FERTILITY DECLINE, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, CULTURE, CULTURAL CHANGE, EDUCATION, MODERNIZATION, SOCIAL CHANGE).
English - pp. 761-794.
A. M. Basu, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-6301, U.S.A.; S. Amin, Policy Research Division, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskj?ld Plaza, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.
ab54@cornell.edu.
***
Perceiving mortality decline.
In the demographic literature on developing countries, studies of mortality perceptions are conspicuous by their absence. Perhaps it has been assumed that when mortality declines, the decline will be quickly recognized by individuals and will then influence their demographic decisions. The possibility of substantial lags and biases in risk perception, which cause individual perceptions to diverge from the changing empirical realities, has not been much considered. Yet studies in cognitive and social psychology indicate that individual mortality perceptions are likely to be diffuse and may well be biased upward in relation to the declining empirical risks. If individuals are poorly equipped to recognize mortality decline, so too may be social groups--social learning will not necessarily correct individual misapprehensions. This note discusses the perceptual limitations that may delay recognition of mortality decline and examines the implications for demographic behavior in three areas: modern health care, fertility control, and children's schooling.
(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, MORTALITY DECLINE, PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS, ATTITUDE, SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, FAMILY PLANNING, CONTRACEPTION, SCHOOLING, MEDICAL CARE).
English - pp. 795-819.
M. R. Montgomery, Policy Research Division, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskj?ld Plaza, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.
***
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, 2001, Vol. 27, No. 1
McDonald, Peter; Kippen, Rebecca.
Labor supply prospects in 16 developed countries, 2000-2050.
Over the past 20 years, policy attention has been focused upon the implications of below-replacement fertility for the aging of populations. This article argues that another potential consequence, a decline in the absolute size of the labor force, may prove to be an equally compelling issue because of its impact on rates of economic growth. Because the United States will experience both increasing labor productivity and an increase in its labor supply, the growth orientation of the global economy is likely to persist. In this circumstance, given relatively comparable changes in the productivity of labor across countries, countries that face major declines in their labor supply will fare less well than countries that are able to maintain their labor supply at least constant. The article examines the labor supply prospects of 16 developed countries for the period 2000-2050, drawing attention to the ways in which countries may be able to influence the future levels of their labor supply.
(DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, LABOUR SUPPLY, LABOUR FORCE, BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH).
English - pp. 1-32.
P. McDonald, R. Kippen, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
***
Fertility, education, and development: Evidence from India.
Fertility has declined significantly in many parts of India since the early 1980s. This article examines the determinants of fertility levels and fertility decline, using data on Indian districts for 1981 and 1991. The authors find that women's education and child mortality are the most important factors explaining fertility differences across the country and over time. Low levels of son preference also contribute to lower fertility. By contrast, general indicators of modernization and development such as urbanization, poverty reduction, and male literacy exhibit no significant association with fertility. En passant, the authors probe a subject of much confusion--the relation between fertility decline and gender bias.
(INDIA, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, CHILD MORTALITY, EDUCATION, EDUCATION OF WOMEN, SEX PREFERENCE, MODERNIZATION, URBANIZATION, POVERTY).
English - pp. 33-63.
J. Dr?ze, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India; M. Murthi, Centre for History and Economics, King's College, Cambridge, U.K.
***
Retherford, Robert D.; Ogawa, Naohiro; Matsukura, Rikiya
Late marriage and less marriage in Japan.
Between 1975 and 1995, the singulate mean age at marriage in Japan increased from 24.5 to 27.7 years for women and from 27.6 to 30.7 years for men, making Japan one of the latest-marrying populations in the world. Over the same period, the proportion of women who will never marry, calculated from age-specific first-marriage probabilities pertaining to a particular calendar year, increased from 5 to 15 percent for women and from 6 to 22 percent for men--behaviors sharply different from those characterizing the universal-marriage society of earlier years. This article investigates how and why these changes have come about. The reasons are bound up with rapid educational gains by women, massive increases in the proportion of women who work for pay outside the home, major changes in the structure and functioning of the marriage market, extraordinary increases in the prevalence of premarital sex, and far-reaching changes in values relating to marriage and family life.
(JAPAN, MARRIAGE POSTPONEMENT, AGE AT MARRIAGE, CULTURAL CHANGE, SOCIAL CHANGE, SOCIAL NORMS, VALUE SYSTEMS, EDUCATION OF WOMEN, SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR, PREMARITAL SEX BEHAVIOUR, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT).
English - pp. 65-102.
R. D. Retherford, Population and Health Studies, East-West Center, Honolulu, U.S.A.; N. Ogawa, R. Matsukura, Nihon University Population Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan.
***
Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries.
This account reports on a project in progress that aims to obtain a comprehensive picture of contemporary fertility levels and trends in 27 low-fertility countries. Cohort analysis is applied to review the fertility experience of women born from the 1930s through the 1970s. This choice of dates ensures that not only completed fertility but also the fertility patterns of women in the midst of or near the onset of their reproductive period are examined. In most of the 27 countries, completed fertility of successive cohorts has been declining. It appears plausible that the trends discerned in the analysis will continue in the foreseeable future. For these trends to be reversed, women who are about to enter or who are in the midst of their reproductive periods would have to adopt fertility patterns markedly different from those of women born in the 1960s and 1970s.
(LOW FERTILITY ZONES, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY TRENDS, COMPLETED FERTILITY, COHORT FERTILITY, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, METHODOLOGY, COHORT ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 103-132.
T. Frejka, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; G. Calot, Observatoire D?mographique Europ?en, Saint-Germain-en-Laye, France.
***
Is there evidence of birth control in late imperial China?
In recent publications James Lee, Wang Feng, Cameron Campbell, and Zhongwei Zhao argue--contrary to what has long been the view of most sinologists--that people in late imperial China deliberately controlled their fertility through a combination of late starting, early stopping, and long spacing. The present article challenges this argument and the data offered in its support. It attempts to show that though they did not want as many children as possible, most Chinese couples did want to raise as many sons as possible. What is interpreted by the revisionists as evidence of birth control is better understood as evidence of poverty.
(CHINA, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, ANTHROPOLOGY, FAMILY PLANNING, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, BIRTH SPACING, SEX PREFERENCE, POVERTY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 133-154.
A. P. Wolf, Department of Anthropological Sciences, Stanford University, U.S.A.
***
On the scale of global demographic convergence 1950-2000.
The second half of the twentieth century saw global demographic change of unprecedented magnitude, with pronounced falls in both mortality and fertility in many developing countries. This article assesses the extent to which these changes have led to the convergence of demographic patterns around the world. It considers not just the levels of fertility and mortality in each country at different points in time, but also the size of each population. It also disaggregates China and India into their constituent provinces and states in order to provide estimates for units more typical of the size of the populations of other countries. The note presents proportions of the world's population according to the levels of life expectancy and total fertility they experienced in the early 1950s, the late 1970s, and around 2000. The graphs and tables thus produced give a convenient and novel way to view the scale and nature of demographic convergence over the last 50 years.
(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY TRENDS, MORTALITY DECLINE, MORTALITY TRENDS, POPULATION SIZE).
English - pp. 155-171.
C. Wilson, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
***
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, 2001, Vol. 27, No. 2
Goodkind, Daniel; West, Loraine
The North Korean famine and its demographic impact.
The North Korean famine began in 1995 and its ill effects, while peaking in the late 1990s, undoubtedly linger. Recent conjectures on excess deaths caused by the famine range widely from about 200,000 to 3 million or more. This article assesses the demographic impact of the famine with greater rigor than has previously been attempted and describes the unique setting in which the famine occurred. The analysis begins with a pair of population projections based on mortality statistics from two sources. Given their contradictory implications, the analysis turns to less direct evidence of famine-related mortality. That evidence includes China's demographic experience during the Great Leap Forward and recent measurements of child malnutrition in North Korea. Cross-country comparisons translate this malnutrition into corresponding levels of infant mortality. The article concludes that famine-related deaths in North Korea from 1995 to 2000 most likely numbered between 600,000 and 1 million.
(KOREA DPR, FOOD SHORTAGE, MALNUTRITION, INFANT MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 219-238.
D. Goodkind, L. West, International Programs Center, Goodkind, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S.A.
***
Waggoner, Paul E.; Ausubel, Jesse H.
How much will feeding more and wealthier people encroach on forests?
Forests have recently expanded in many countries. The success of the world, including both rich and poor, in following this trend depends on future changes in population, income per capita, appetite, and crop yields. Extended to the year 2050, the strengths of these forces, estimated from experience, project cropland shrinking by nearly 200 million hectares, more than three times the land area of France. Changes in some of the forces, with crop yield the most manageable, could double the shrinkage. Reasonable assumptions about the forces can also make the distribution of spared land between rich and poor countries roughly equal. Although the encroachment factor translating cropland change into forest land change varies greatly, one-third or more of the cropland spared could become forest.
(ECOLOGY, AGRICULTURE, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS, NATURAL RESOURCES, FOREST RESOURCES, LAND USE, CULTIVATED LAND).
English - pp. 239-257.
P. E. Waggoner, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, U.S.A.; J. H. Ausubel, Program for the Human Environment, Rockefeller University, New York, U.S.A.
***
Prenatal sex determination and sex-selective abortion in rural central China.
This study analyzes the practice of prenatal sex selection in rural central China. It examines the prevalence and determinants of prenatal sex determination by ultrasound scanning and subsequent sex-selective abortion. The data are derived from a survey of 820 married women aged 20-44 and from in-depth interviews with rural women and men, village leaders, family planning managers, and health providers, conducted by the author in one county in central China in 2000. Prenatal sex determination was a widespread practice, especially for second and higher-order pregnancies. Sex-selective abortion was prevalent and order of pregnancy, sex of fetus, and sex of previous children were major determinants of the practice. A female fetus representing a high-order pregnancy in a family with one or more daughters was the most likely to be aborted. Awareness among rural families that in the population at large a future marriage squeeze was likely did not diminish the demand for sex-selective abortion.
(CHINA, RURAL AREAS, SEX PREFERENCE, SEX PREDETERMINATION, BIRTH ORDER, INDUCED ABORTION).
English - pp. 259-281.
Chu Junhong, Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing, China.
***
Koenig, Michael A.; Bishai, David; Khan, Mehrab Ali.
Health interventions and health equity: The example of measles vaccination in Bangladesh.
Although the existence of socioeconomic differentials in infant and childhood mortality in developing countries is well established, little consensus exists as to the most effective approaches to reducing such differentials. This article utilizes longitudinal data from the Matlab study area in rural Bangladesh to investigate the impact of an efficacious child survival intervention -- measles vaccination -- on reductions in gender and socioeconomic differentials in childhood mortality. The article analyzes data from 16,270 vaccinated children and randomly matched controls, and evaluates their subsequent mortality risks. Proportional hazards analysis demonstrates that unvaccinated children from very poor families face more than a threefold higher risk of subsequent early child mortality, compared to vaccinated children from families of high economic status. While measles vaccination has little impact on mortality risks among children of higher economic status, the improvement in survival among children from poorer households is pronounced. The provision of measles vaccination markedly reduces mortality risks for poorer children--from over three times higher to just over 1.5 times higher relative to vaccinated children from wealthier families. The findings of this study are evaluated in terms of the potential of child survival interventions such as measles vaccination to promote greater health equity.
(BANGLADESH, CITIES, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, DIFFRENTIAL MORTALITY, HEALTH SERVICES, VACCINATION, MEASLES, INFECTIOUS DISEASES, MODELS, PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODELS).
English - pp. 283-302.
M. A. Koenig, D. Bishai, Department of Population and Family Health Sciences, School of Hygiene and Public Health, The Johns Hopkins University, U.S.A.; M. A. Khan, Centre for Health and Population Research, Dakha, Bangladesh.
***
Boerma, J. Ties; Holt, Elizabeth; Black, Robert.
Measurement of biomarkers in surveys in developing countries: Opportunities and problems.
Reliable and comprehensive data on disease levels, patterns, and trends in populations are required to monitor global and local epidemics and to assess the effectiveness of public health approaches to disease and injury prevention and control. For most developing countries, little is reliably known about causes of mortality or about disease incidence, prevalence, and duration. Advances in technology offer the opportunity to collect biomarkers--biological and clinical data--in existing large-scale, national sample surveys. Such data on biomarkers could result in significantly better insight into public health problems and more rational and equitable policies leading to improved health. The combination of traditionally collected behavioral data with biological and clinical data affords many possibilities to better assess health problems and to develop the most cost-effective set of interventions. Careful assessment and discussion of the potential public health benefits, ethical issues, and logistical challenges should guide the application of technological advances in population-based surveys.
(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, MORBIDITY, DISEASES, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, INDICATORS, INCIDENCE RATE, PREVALENCE RATE, PUBLIC HEALTH, HEALTH POLICY, SANITARY CONTROL, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, INNOVATIONS).
English - pp. 303-314.
J. T. Boerma, Carolina Population Center and Department of Maternal and Child Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, U.S.A.; E. Holt, R. Black, Department of International Health, The Johns Hopkins University, U.S.A.
***
Surnames in US population records.
Two federal agencies have used surnames to classify persons by ethnicity. As two important twentieth-century examples, names were used to set immigration quotas, and the Census Bureau used names as the defining characteristic of Hispanics. However, many names have been changed and, if unaltered, they are in any case an unreliable index of ethnic identity.
(UNITED STATES, SURNAME, ETHNICITY, ETHNIC ORIGIN, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, INDICATORS, DATA COLLECTION, POPULATION CENSUSES).
English - pp. 315-322.
W. Petersen, Robert Lazarus Professor of Social Demography Emeritus, Ohio State University, Columbus, U.S.A.
***
The world's changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment.
This research note presents the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi-state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative scenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes constant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions reach Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momentum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educational composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because education is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational composition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enrollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated people of working age than Europe and Northern America together.
(WORLD, HUMAN RESOURCES, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, EDUCATION, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, ENROLMENT RATE, POPULATION COMPOSITION, AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION).
English - pp. 323-339.
W. Lutz, A. Goujon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
***
The preliminary demography of the 2001 Census of India.
This note presents and comments on the provisional results of the 2001 census of India. For the first time since Independence in 1947 there is clear evidence that the country's intercensal rate of population growth has fallen significantly--from an average annual rate of 2.14 percent between 1981 and 1991 to a rate of 1.93 percent between 1991 and 2001. At the state level there has been little change in the rates of population growth in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, but there are signs of--often quite considerable--reductions in growth rates for most of the remaining states. The provisional census results suggest that there has been a decline in India's population masculinity compared to 1991. But the note contends that this decline is probably largely spurious because females were less fully enumerated in 1991 than they were in 2001. Indeed the sex ratios of the states of Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Gujarat have become noticeably more masculine, which may partly reflect the influence of sex-selective abortion.
(INDIA, CITIES, DATA COLLECTION, POPULATION CENSUSES, ENUMERATION, POPULATION GROWTH, INTERCENSAL GROWTH, GROWTH RATE, AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION, SEX RATIO, ABORTION).
English - pp. 341-356.
T. Dyson, Department of Population Studies, London School of Economics, London, U.K.
***
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, 2001, Vol. 27, No. 3
Carey, James R.; Judge, Debra S.
Life span extension in humans is self-reinforcing: A general theory of longevity.
This article proposes that longevity is not merely the result of an absence of mortality but a self-reinforcing and positively selected life-history trait in social species. It argues that a small increase in longevity is amplified as (1) reductions in mortality at young ages increase natural selection for mechanisms of maintenance and repair at all older ages as well as increasing the potential for intergenerational transfers; (2) intergenerational transfers of resources from old to young increase fitness (e.g., through improved health, skill, and competitive ability) of the young and thus favor the presence of older individuals in a population; and (3)the division of labor increases both efficiency and innovation at all levels, resulting in increased resources that can be reinvested. This theory is framed around the longevity-oriented question posed two decades ago by the gerontologist George Sacher, "Why do we live as long as we do?," rather than the more prevalent question today, "Why do we grow old?" The article describes the foundational principles and the main phases of a model for the evolution of longevity mediated through social organization, and applies the concept specifically to human populations.
(DEMOGRAPHY, BIOLOGY, LIFE SPAN, NATURAL SELECTION, GENERATIONS, INTERGENERATIONAL SOCIAL MOBILITY, SOCIAL MOBILITY, SOCIAL ORGANIZATION, DIVISION OF LABOUR, THEORY, MODELS).
English - pp. 411-436.
J. R. Carey, D. S. Judge, Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis, U.S.A.
***
First politics, then culture: Accounting for ethnic differences in demographic behavior in Kenya.
Ethnic differences in demographic behavior tend to be disguised behind analytically opaque labels like "district" or "region," or else subjected to simplistic cultural explanations. Drawing on new political economy, sociological theory and the political science literature on sub-Saharan Africa, this article proposes an alternative explanatory model and tests it empirically with reference to Kenya. Access to political power and, through power, access to a state's resources--including resources devoted to clinics, schools, labor opportunities, and other determinants of demographic behavior--are advanced as the key factors underlying ethnic differences. District-level estimates of "political capital" are introduced and merged with two waves of Demographic and Health Survey data. The effects on models of contraceptive use are explored. Results confirm that measures of political capital explain residual ethnic differences in use, providing strong support for a political approach to the analysis of demographic behavior.
(KENYA, ETHNIC GROUPS, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MIGRATION, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, HEALTH, HEALTH SERVICES, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, METHODOLOGY, MODELS).
English - pp. 437-467.
A. A. Weinreb, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), Bldg 31, Room 2A32, MSC 2425, 31 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892-2425, U.S.A.
***
Is there a stabilizing selection around average fertility in modern human populations?.
Possibly the greatest challenge for an evolutionary explanation of demographic transition is the fact that fertility levels universally start to fall first among the well-to-do, well-educated, healthy classes, which can be explained only by some voluntary or at least adaptive action. The problem of how restraints on fertility could have evolved by natural selection has been tackled with group selection models as well as with stabilizing selection models. The latter model, which is critically discussed in this article, posits that some intermediate (rather than maximal) level of fertility is optimal for long-term reproductive success. Tests of stabilizing selection in human populations are rare, their results inconclusive. Here four sets of data are analyzed: they are samples drawn from the class of 1950 of the US Military Academy at West Point (cohorts 1923-29), retired US noncommissioned officers (cohorts 1913-37), and western German and eastern German physicians (cohorts 1930-35), all containing fertility data over two generations, and from European royalty (cohorts 1790-1939) containing fertility data over four generations. Deterministic as well as stochastic fitness measures are used. It is found that maximal, not average, fertility in the first generation leads to maximal long-term reproductive success. Also against prediction, no decreasing marginal fitness gains by increasing fertility can be observed. The findings leave little space for considering stabilizing selection as a plausible mechanism explaining the course of demographic transition but indicate instead that biological evolution today is as fast and vigorous as ever in human history. Even in large populations, all people living today may be the descendants of just some few percents--a much smaller proportion than generally believed--of the people living some generations ago.
(DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FERTILITY DECLINE, NATURAL SELECTION, EVOLUTION, EDUCATION, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, COHORT ANALYSIS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, MODELS, STOCHASTIC MODELS).
English - pp. 469-498.
U. Mueller, Institute of Medical Sociology and Social Medicine, Medical School, University of Marburg, Germany.
***
The age of migration in China.
Using data from the 1987 and 1995 China One Percent Population Sample Surveys, this article examines migration patterns during 1982-95, a period of sweeping social and economic changes in China. Several major patterns are evident: the increase in overall migration and especially in temporary migration, the increasing importance of interprovincial migration, and the concentration of migrants in the coastal region. Over time, migrants of rural origin were more likely to choose cities as destinations than towns. The consequences and implications of the changes in migration patterns are explored.
(CHINA, INTERNAL MIGRATION, RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION, TEMPORARY MIGRATION, POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, SOCIAL CHANGE, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES).
English - pp. 499-524.
Zai Liang, Department of Sociology, City University of New York-Queens College, U.S.A.
***
Freeman, Gary P.; Birrell, Bob.
Divergent paths of immigration politics in the United States and Australia.
The United States and Australia converged by the mid-1980s on receptive and expansive immigration policies reflecting "client" politics. Australia has since pursued a more restrictive and selective course while the United States has resisted pressures toward such a stance. The authors account for these differences by assessing the theoretical perspectives of interests, rights, and states. Conflicts among groups with direct interests in policy outcomes are the principal source of immigration politics, but a comparison of the roles of rights and state institutions helps explain peculiarities of the two cases. The distinctive Australian policy trajectory is shaped by greater volatility of public opinion about immigration and multiculturalism, and by political institutions that are more responsive to popular sentiment.
(UNITED STATES, AUSTRALIA, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION POLICY, PUBLIC OPINION, ATTITUDE, HUMAN RIGHTS).
English - pp. 525-551.
G. P. Freeman, Public Policy Clinic, University of Texas at Austin, U.S.A.; B. Birrell, Centre for Population and Urban Research, Monash University, U.S.A.
***
Schoen, Robert; Standish, Nicola.
The retrenchment of marriage: Results from marital status life tables for the United States, 1995.
Marital status life tables were calculated using 1995 US rates of marriage, divorce, and mortality. Compared to figures for 1988, the proportion of persons surviving to age 15 who ever marry remained fairly steady at about five-sixths of all men and seven-eighths of all women. The average age at first marriage rose substantially: to 28.6 years for men and 26.6 years for women. The probability of a marriage ending in divorce changed little and was .437 for men and .425 for women. It is likely that no US period or cohort will ever have half of all marriages end in legal divorce, though the highest cohort may reach 47 percent. Patterns of marriage and divorce observed since 1970 show the effect that cohabitation continues to have on the American family, where it is delaying, but not replacing, marriage.
(UNITED STATES, NUPTIALITY, NUPTIALITY TABLES, NUPTIALITY RATE, AGE AT MARRIAGE, MARITAL UNION, COHABITATION, DIVORCE, LEGAL SEPARATION).
English - pp. 553-563.
R. Schoen, Department of Sociology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, U.S.A.; N. Standish, Department of Finance, State of California, Sacramento, U.S.A.
***
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, 2001, Vol. 27, No. 4
Clarke, Alice L.; Low, Bobbi S.
Testing evolutionary hypotheses with demographic data.
An ecological evolutionary viewpoint offers new perspectives on contemporary demographic problems in general and on population-environment issues in particular. In turn, rich and detailed human demographic data can help solve problems of interest in evolutionary theory. Such data have been analyzed in greatest detail in studies of traditional and historical societies. Evolutionary approaches using historical data go beyond small-sample anthropological studies to the application of the evolutionary approach to large datasets, and illuminate important similarities between small-scale traditional societies and large modern populations living in evolutionarily novel environments. This article provides a concise update of the breadth of questions and hypotheses of likely interest to demographers and others that evolutionary theorists address using a variety of traditional and historical datasets. It suggests opportunities for additional collaborative work between evolutionary theorists and historical demographers and highlights topics relevant to modern demography.
(HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH, EVOLUTION, ENVIRONMENT, TRADITIONAL SOCIETY, INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY, THEORY).
English - pp. 633-660.
A. L. Clarke, Environmental Studies Department, Florida International University, Miami, U.S.A.; B. S. Low, Resource Ecology Concentration, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, U.S.A.
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Death at the border: Efficacy and unintended consequences of US immigration control policy.
This article assesses the efficacy of the strategy of immigration control implemented by the US government since 1993 in reducing illegal entry attempts, and documents some of the unintended consequences of this strategy, especially a sharp increase in mortality among unauthorized migrants along certain segments of the Mexico-US border. The available data suggest that the current strategy of border enforcement has resulted in rechanneling flows of unauthorized migrants to more hazardous areas, raising fees charged by people-smugglers, and discouraging unauthorized migrants already in the US from returning to their places of origin. However, there is no evidence that the strategy is deterring or preventing significant numbers of new illegal entries, particularly given the absence of a serious effort to curtail employment of unauthorized migrants through worksite enforcement. An expanded temporary worker program, selective legalization of unauthorized Mexican workers residing in the United States, and other proposals under consideration by the US and Mexican governments are unlikely to reduce migrant deaths resulting from the current strategy of border enforcement.
(UNITED STATES, MEXICO, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION POLICY, IMMIGRATION LEGISLATION, ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, MORTALITY, GOVERNMENT POLICY).
English - pp. 661-685.
W. A. Cornelius, Center for Comparative Immigration Studies and Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California at San Diego, U.S.A.
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Jejeebhoy, Shireen J.; Sathar, Zeba A.
Women's autonomy in India and Pakistan: The influence of religion and region.
This article compares the lives of women and explores dimensions of their autonomy in different regions of South Asia--Punjab in Pakistan, and Uttar Pradesh in north India and Tamil Nadu in south India. It explores the contextual factors underlying observed differences and assesses the extent to which these differences could be attributed to religion, nationality, or north-south cultural distinctions. Findings suggest that while women's autonomy--in terms of decisionmaking, mobility, freedom from threatening relations with husband, and access to and control over economic resources--is constrained in all three settings, women in Tamil Nadu fare considerably better than other women, irrespective of religion. Findings lend little support to the suggestion that women in Pakistan have less autonomy or control over their lives than do Indian women. Nor do Muslim women--be they Indian or Pakistani--exercise less autonomy in their own lives than do Hindu women in the subcontinent. Rather, findings suggest that in the patriarchal and gender-stratified structures governing the northern portion of the subcontinent, women's control over their lives is more constrained than in the southern region.
(INDIA, PAKISTAN, REGIONS, CITIES, RELIGION, ISLAM, HINDUISM, NATIONALITY, CULTURE, PATRIARCHY, DECISION MAKING, WOMEN?S ROLE, WOMEN?S STATUS, SEX ROLES, SOCIAL ROLES, WOMEN?S EMANCIPATION).
English - pp. 686-712.
S. J. Jejeebhoy, UNDP/UNFPA/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Department of Reproductive Health and Research, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland; Z. A. Sathar, interim Country Director, Population Council, Pakistan.
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Guilmoto, Christophe Z.; Rajan, S. Irudaya
Spatial patterns of fertility transition in Indian districts.
The article explores the dynamics of Indian fertility at the district level using a child-woman index developed from the four Indian censuses, 1961 to 1991. It employs statistical and geostatistical techniques to assess fertility change across districts and periods. Fertility decline is evident in every region, but sizable regional differentials exist. A cluster analysis of fertility profiles indicates that a clear spatial pattern of fertility in India has emerged and the pattern intensified because of the process of fertility decline.
(INDIA, ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, REGIONS, FERTILITY DECLINE, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, DATA COLLECTION, POPULATION CENSUSES, METHODOLOY, MEASUREMENT, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, CHILD-WOMAN RATIO, CLUSTER SAMPLING).
English - pp. 713-738.
C. Z. Guilmoto, IRD, French Institute, Pondicherry, India; S. I. Rajan, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India.
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First impressions from the 2000 Census of China.
The 2000 census of China has several notable innovations, including a sample long form containing detailed items on migration, housing, and employment. Preliminary data indicate rapid urbanization and continued rapid social change in the 1990s, and apparent success in the government's drive to curtail population growth. Although a post-enumeration survey indicates that overall data quality is good, the rise of a mobile "floating population" and pressures of the birth planning program caused problems for the enumeration of migrants and infants. Data released to date have been silent on two important issues, fertility and rising sex ratios.
(CHINA, POPULATION CENSUSES, DATA COLLECTION, QUALITY OF DATA, MIGRATION, FERTILITY, SEX RATIO, HOUSING, EMPLOYMENT, URBANIZATION, SOCIAL CHANGE, POPULATION GROWTH, FLOATING POPULATION).
English - pp. 755-769.
W. Lavely, International Studies and Sociology, University of Washington, U.S.A.
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The impact of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality in Zimbabwe.
In June 2000, an estimated 25 percent of adults in Zimbabwe were living with HIV/AIDS. Statistical data on the impact of the epidemic, though problematic in many ways, are better for Zimbabwe than for many other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis presents estimates of adult mortality in Zimbabwe based on multiple sources, including registered deaths adjusted for incomplete reporting, estimated at approximately 50 percent. Comparison of estimates from different data sources shows that they are subject to substantial errors. At the same time, the estimates leave no doubt that adult mortality risks in Zimbabwe more than doubled between 1982 and 1997. The evidence that this rise is due to AIDS deaths is circumstantial, but very strong; there is no credible competing explanation.
(ZIMBABWE, AIDS, ADULT MORTALITY, MORTALITY INCREASE, ESTIMATES, UNDERESTIMATION, QUALITY OF DATA, DEFECTIVE DATA).
English - pp. 771-780.
G. Feeney, East-West Center, Honolulu, U.S.A.
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