DEMOGRAPHY, 2000, Vol. 37, No. 2
BLACK, Dan; GATES, Gary; SANDERS, Seth; TAYLOR, Lowell.
Demographics of the gay and lesbian population in the United States: Evidence from available systematic data sources.
This work provides an overview of standard social science data sources that now allow some systematic study of the gay and lesbian population in the United States. For each data source, we consider how sexual orientation can be defined, and we note the potential sample sizes. We give special attention to the important problem of measurement error, especially the extent to which individuals recorded as gay and lesbian are indeed recorded correctly. Our concern is that because gays and lesbians constitute a relatively small fraction of the population, modest measurement problems could lead to serious errors in inference. In examining gays and lesbians in multiple data sets we also achieve a second objective: We provide a set of statistics about this population that is relevant to several current policy debates.
(UNITED STATES, HOMOSEXUALITY, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, QUALITY OF DATA)
English - pp. 139-154.
D. Black, Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244, U.S.A.; G. Gates and L. Taylor, Heinz School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, U.S.A.; S. Sanders, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, U.S.A.
dablac01@maxwell.syr.edu.
***
MONTGOMERY, Mark R.; GRAGNOLATI, Michele; BURKE, Kathleen A.; PAREDES, Edmundo.
Measuring living standards with proxy variables.
Very few demographic surveys in developing countries have gathered information on household incomes or consumption expenditures. Researchers interested in living standards therefore have had little alternative but to rely on simple proxy indicators. The properties of these proxies have not been analyzed systematically. We ask what hypotheses can be tested using proxies, and compare these indicators with consumption expenditures per adult, our preferred measure of living standards. We find that the proxies employed in much demographic research are very weak predictors of consumption per adult. Nevertheless, hypothesis tests based on proxies are likely to be powerful enough to warrant consideration.
(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, STANDARD OF LIVING, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, CONSUMPTION, EXPENDITURES, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH)
English - pp. 155-174.
M. R. Montgomery, Policy Research Division, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.; M. Gragnolati, Human Development Department, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, World Bank, U.S.A.; K. A. Burke, Economics Department, State University of New York at Cortland, U.S.A.; E. Paredes, Department of Economics, Pontificia Universidad Cat?lica, Peru.
mmontgomery@popcouncil.org.
***
HILL, Mark E.; PRESTON, Samuel H.; ROSENWAIKE, Ira.
Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: Results of a record linkage study.
This study investigates age reporting on the death certificates of older white Americans. We link a sample of death certificates for native-born whites aged 85+ in 1985 to Social Security Administration records and to records of the U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920. When ages in these sources are compared, inconsistencies are found to be minimal, even beyond age 95. Results show little distortion and no systematic biases in the reported age distribution of deaths. To explore the effect of age misreporting on old-age mortality, we estimate "corrected" age-specific death rates by the extinct-generation method for the U.S. white cohort born in 1885. With few exceptions, corrected and uncorrected rates in single years differ by less than 3% and are not systematically biased. When we compare corrected rates with those for the same birth cohort in France, Japan, and Sweden, we find that white American mortality at older ages is exceptionally low.
(UNITED STATES, AGE REPORTING, DEATH RECORDS, AGED, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION, QUALITY OF DATA)
English - pp. 175-186.
M. E. Hill, S. H. Preston and I. Rosenwaike, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298, U.S.A.
mhill@pop.upenn.edu.
***
HANDCOCK, Mark S.; HUOVILAINEN, Sami M.; RENDALL, Michael S.
Combining registration-system and survey data to estimate birth probabilities.
With the widespread availability of event-history data, demographers have increasingly eschewed registration-system data in favor of survey data. We propose instead using survey and registration-system data in combination, via a constrained maximum-likelihood framework for demographic hazard modeling. As an application, we combine panel survey data and birth registration data to estimate annual birth probabilities by parity. The general fertility rate obtained from registration-system data constrains the weighted sum of parity-specific birth probabilities. The variances about the parity-specific birth probabilities are halved when registration-system data are used to constrain the estimates. Other demographic applications are discussed.
(UNITED STATES, METHODOLOGY, MODELS, PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODELS, DATA COLLECTION, SURVEYS, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD, PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO)
English - pp. 187-192.
M. S. Handcock, Department of Statistics and Center for Statistics and Social Sciences, University of Washington, U.S.A.; S. M. Huovilainen, Department of Statistics and Population Research Institute, Michael S. Rendall, Department of Sociology and Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802-6211, U.S.A.
rendall@pop.psu.edu.
***
SWANSON, David A.; TAYMAN, Jeff; BARR, Charles F.
A note on the measurement of accuracy for subnational demographic estimates.
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the measure most often used for evaluating subnational demographic estimates, is not always valid. We describe guidelines for determining when MAPE is valid. Applying them to case study data, we find that MAPE understates accuracy because it is unduly influenced by outliers. To overcome this problem, we calculate a transformed MAPE (MAPE-T) using a modified Box-Cox method. Because MAPE-T is not in the same scale as the untransformed absolute percentage errors, we provide a procedure for calculating MAPE-R, a measure in the same scale as the original observations. We argue that MAPE-R is a more appropriate summary measure of average absolute percentage error when the guidelines indicate that MAPE is not valid.
(METHODOLOGY, POPULATION ESTIMATES, CASE STUDIES, DATA COLLECTION, DATA EVALUATION, QUALITY OF DATA, ERRORS, MEASUREMENT)
English - pp. 193-201.
D. A. Swanson, Helsinki School of Economics and Business Administration, International MBA and BBA Program, L?nnrotinkatu 5, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland; J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, U.S.A.; C. F. Barr, Department of Economics, University of Nevada Las Vegas, U.S.A.
David.Swanson@mli.hkkk.fi.
***
Child support and the postdivorce economic well-being of mothers, fathers, and children.
This article provides national estimates of the current and potential impact of private child support transfers on the economic well-being of custodial and noncustodial families following marital dissolution. Mothers and children fare dramatically worse than fathers after marital dissolution; these differences, however would be much more pronounced in the absence of private child support. Simulations of four existing child support guidelines show that substantial increases in economic well-being among mother-custody families are possible within the structure of the existing child support system, with minimal impact on poverty among nonresident fathers. Under all of these guidelines, however, custodial-mother families would continue to fare substantially worse than nonresident fathers.
(UNITED STATES, CHILD CARE, CHILD CUSTODY, DIVORCE, DISSOLUTION OF MARRIAGE, PARENTS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MODELS, SIMULATION)
English - pp. 203-213.
J. Bartfeld, Department of Consumer Science, School of Human Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1300 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, U.S.A.
bartfeld@facstaff.wisc.edu.
***
Regional analysis of divorce in China since 1980.
This paper estimates and discusses divorce measures in China and its 30 provinces since 1980. The propensity for divorce in China increased 42% between 1982 and 1990. Substantial increases in divorce were observed in all provinces except Xinjiang and Shanxi. We found a fairly strong regional pattern of divorce in China: Divorce rates were lowest on the east coast and in eastern areas, highest in the northwest and the northeast, and moderate in the middle and southern parts of the country. Descriptive explanations of trends and regional variations are presented.
(CHINA, CITIES, DIVORCE, DIVORCE RATE, MARRIAGE, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT)
English - pp. 215-219.
Zeng Yi, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27708, U.S.A.; Wu Deqing, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Institute of Population Research, Academy of Social Sciences, China.
zengyi@duke.edu.
***
MCGARRY, Kathleen; SCHOENI, Robert F.
Social security, economic growth, and the rise in elderly widows' independence in the 20th century.
The percentage of elderly widows living alone rose from 18% in 1940 to 62% in 1990, while the percentage living with adult children declined from 59% to 20%. This study finds that income growth, particularly increased Social Security benefits, was the single most important determinant of living arrangements, accounting for nearly one-half of the increase in independent living. Unlike researchers in earlier studies, we find no evidence that the effect of income became stronger over the period. Changes in age, race, immigrant status, schooling, and completed fertility explain a relatively small share of the changes in living arrangements.
(UNITED STATES, WIDOWHOOD, AGED, INCOME, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL WELFARE, STANDARD OF LIVING, QUALITY OF LIFE, LIVING CONDITIONS)
English - pp. 221-236.
K. McGarry, Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles, U.S.A.; R. F. Schoeni, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407, U.S.A.
Schoeni@rand.org.
***
CASPER, Lynne M.; COHEN, Philip N.
How does posslq measure up? Historical estimates of cohabitation.
We use March Current Population Survey (CPS) data from 1977 to 1997 to produce a new historical series of indirect cohabitation prevalence estimates. We compare our new estimates with those produced by the traditional method and evaluate the new estimates. We then compare the indirect estimates with the new direct estimates to investigate whether biases exist in the indirect estimates. Our findings indicate that the traditional indirect method of estimating cohabitation prevalence underestimates cohabitors in different subpopulations, especially among those with children. We also find that the new indirect measure produces relatively unbiased estimates of cohabitors' characteristics.
(UNITED STATES, COHABITATION, CONSENSUAL UNION, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT, INDICATORS, DATA COLLECTION, SURVEYS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)
English - pp. 237-245.
L. M. Casper, Fertility and Family Statistics Branch, U.S. Census Bureau, and Demographic and Behavioral Sciences Branch, Center for Population Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, 6100 Executive Boulevard, MSC 7510, Bethesda, MD 20892-7510, U.S.A.; P. N. Cohen, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Sociology, University of California, Irvine, U.S.A.
casperl@mail.nih.gov.
***
DEMOGRAPHY, 2000, Vol. 37, No. 3
MANTON, Kenneth G.; LAND, Kenneth C.
Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: A multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed cohorts, 1982-1996.
An increment-decrement stochastic-process life table model that continuously mixes measures of functional change is developed to represent age transitions among highly refined disability states interacting simultaneously with mortality. The model is applied to data from the National Long Term Care Surveys of elderly persons in the years 1982 to 1996 to produce active life expectancy estimates based on completed-cohort life tables. At ages 65 and 85, comparisons with extant period estimates for 1990 show that our active life expectancy estimates are larger for both males and females than are extant period estimates based on coarse disability states.
UNITED STATES, AGED, LIFE EXPECTANCY, DISABILITY, STOCHASTIC MODELS, COHORT ANALYSIS, PERIOD ANALYSIS.
English - pp. 253-265.
K. G. Manton, Duke University, Center for Demographic Studies, 2117 Campus Drive, Box 90408, Durham, NC 27708-0408, U.S.A., K. C. Land, Duke University, Department of Sociology, Durham, NC, U.S.A.
manton@duke.edu.
***
The racial crossover in comorbidity, disability, and mortality.
This study analyzed one respondent per household who was age 70 or more at the time of the household's inclusion in Wave 1 (1993-1994) and whose survival status was determinable at Wave 2 (1995-1996) of the Survey on Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD survey). At age 76 at Wave 1, there was a racial crossover in the cumulative number of six potentially fatal diagones (chronic lung disease, hypertension, diabetes, and stroke) from a higher cumulative average number for blacks to a higher average number for whites. Also, there was a racial crossover at age 86 in the cumulative average number of disabilities in the Advanced Activities of Daily Living (AADLs), from a higher average for whites. Between Waves 1 and 2, there was a racial crossover in the odds of mortality from higher odds for whites; this occurred at about age 81. The results are consistent with the interpretation that racial crossover in comorbidity (but not the crossover in ADDL disability) propelled the racial crossover in mortality.
(UNITED STATES, AGED, RACES, CAUSES OF DEATH, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, DISABILITY, MORBIDITY).
English - pp. 267-283.
N. E. Johnson, Sociology Department, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1111, U.S.A.
Nan.Johnson@ssc.msu.edu.
***
VAN DEN OORD, Edwin J. C. G.; ROWE, David C.
Racial differences in birth health risk: A quantitative genetic approach.
In the United States the gap between black and white babies' birth weights has remained largely unexplained. Rather than trying to measure all relevant variables, we used a genetically informative design to study the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors. Employing multiple indicators of "birth health risk", we found that the racial differences increased with the magnitude of the shared environmental effects. This suggested that possible genetic effects would not pertain to fetal genes, although genes affecting the mother's physical or physiological characteristics could be important because they contribute to shared environment in our analysis.
(UNITED STATES, RACES, NEW-BORN, HEALTH, BIRTH WEIGHT, GENETICS).
English - pp. 285-298.
E. J. C. G. Van den Oord, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychology, Utrecht University, Postbus 80140, 3508 TC, Utrecht, The Netherlands, D. C. Rowe, Division of Family Studies, The University of Arizona, Tempe, AZ, U.S.A.
E.vandenOord@fss.uu.nl.
***
OPPENHEIM MASON, Karen; SMITH, Herbert L.
Husbands' versus wives' fertility goals and use of contraception: The influence of gender context in five Asian countries.
Using data from Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, we explore how gender context influences (1) husband-wife concordance in the demand for children and (2) the impact of each spouse's fertility preferences on contraceptive use. We also explore whether the husband's pronatalism can explain the wife's unmet need for contraception. The results suggest that gender context has little net effect on couples' concordance, but influences the relative weight of husbands' and wives' preferences in determining contraceptive use. Analysis of women's unmet need for contraception suggests that the husbands' pronatalism contributes to wives' unmet need, but only to a relatively small degree, especially in settings where unmet need is high. This is the case because the proportion of couples with differing fertility goals is small in most communities.
(ASIA, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, PREFERENCES, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, MARRIED MEN, MARRIED WOMEN, COUPLE, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE).
English - pp. 299-311.
K. Oppenheim Mason, MC4-431, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A., H. L. Smith, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, U.S.A.
Kmason@worldbank.org.
***
Does female circumcision affect infertility and fertility? A study of the Central African Republic, C?te d'lvoire, and Tanzania.
This study explores the association between female circumcision and infertility and fertility, using information from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). In C?te d'Ivoire and Tanzania, circumcised women had lower childlessness, lower infertility by age, and higher total fertility rates than women who were not circumcised; the reverse pattern prevailed in the Central African Republic. In all three countries, however, circumcised women grouped by age at circumcision did not have significantly different odds of infertility nor of having a child than did uncircumcised women, when the effects of covariates were controlled. Thus we find evidence suggesting that the practice of female circumcision does not have a statistically discernible effect on women's ability to reproduce.
(CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC, COTE D'IVOIRE, TANZANIA, FEMALE CIRCUMCISION, INFERTILITY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 313-321.
U. Larsen, Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, U.S.A., S. Yan, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, Food and Drug Administration, U.S.A.
Ularsen@hsph.harvard.edu.
***
OROPESA, R. S.; LANDALE, Nancy S.
From austerity to prosperity? Migration and child poverty among mainland and island Puerto Ricans.
Analyses of migrants' economic circumstances typically use the native-born in the destination as a comparison group. We use the 1990 Census Public Use Microdata Samples for the United States and Puerto Rico to demonstrate the benefits of a comparative approach that includes data from both the origin and the destination. Specifically, the primary objective is to determine how and why the risk of child poverty is associated with migration from Puerto Rico to the United States. The results show that migration reduces the risk of child poverty, partly because better jobs are available on the mainland. Employment, human capital, family structure, and public assistance cannot completely explain observed differences. The results also show that the economic benefits of migration continue for the native-born on the mainland and that return migration to Puerto Rico is associated with impoverishment.
(PUERTO RICO, UNITED STATES, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, CHILDREN, POVERTY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS).
English - pp. 323-338.
R. S. Oropesa and N. S. Landale, Department of Sociology, 601 Oswald Tower, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 5902, U.S.A.
oropesa@pop.psu.edu.
***
REAGAN, Patricia B.; OLSEN, Randall J.
You can go home again: Evidence from longitudinal data.
In this paper we analyze the economic and demographic factors that influence return migration, focusing on generation 1.5 immigrants. Using longitudinal data from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY79), we track residential histories of young immigrants to the United States and analyze the covariates associated with return migration to their home country. Overall, return migration appears to respond to economic incentives, as well as to cultural and linguistic ties to the United States and the home country. We find no role for welfare magnets in the decision to return, but we learn that welfare participation leads to lower probability of return migration. Finally, we see no evidence of a skill bias in return migration, where skill is measured by performance on the Armed Forces Qualifying Test.
(UNITED STATES, RETURN MIGRATION, IMMIGRANTS, YOUTH, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY).
English - pp. 339-350.
P. B. Reagan and R. J. Olsen, Department of Economics and Center for Human Resource Research, 921 Chatham Lane, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43221, U.S.A.
reagan@postoffice.chrr.ohio-state.edu.
olsen@postoffice.chrr.ohio-state.edu.
***
REARDON, Sean F; YUN, John T.; MCNULTY EITLE, Tamela.
The changing structure of school segregation: Measurement and evidence of multiracial metropolitan-area school segregation, 1989-1995.
In this paper we examine aggregate patterns and trends in segregation among white (non-Hispanic), black, Hispanic, and Asian public school students in 217 metropolitan areas during the period 1989-1995. We first describe a set of methodological tools that enable us both to measure the mutual segregation among multiple racial groups and to partition total metropolitan-area school segregation into geographic and racial components. Then we use these tools to examine patterns and trends in metropolitan-area school segregation. We find that the average levels of multiracial school segregation have been unchanged from 1989 to 1995, but that this stability masks important shifts in the geographic and racial components making up average levels of total metropolitan school segregation. In particular, segregation between non-Hispanic white students and all other students has increased, on average, while segregation among black, Hispanic, and Asian student groups has declined. In addition, the contribution to average levels of total metropolitan segregation due to between-district segregation has grown, whereas the relative contribution of within-district segregation has declined.
(UNITED STATES, CITIES, SCHOOL POPULATION, SEGREGATION, RACIAL DISCRIMINATION, METHODOLOGY, TRENDS).
English - pp. 351-364.
S. F. Reardon, Department of Education Policy Studies and Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, 300 Rackley Building, University Park, PA 16802, U.S.A., J. T. Yun, Harvard University, U.S.A., T. McNulty Eitle, Department of Sociology, University of Miami, Miami, U.S.A.
sfr3@psu.edu.
***
CHEVAN, Albert; STOKES, Randall.
Growth in family income inequality, 1970-1990: Industrial restructuring and demographic change.
Industrial restructuring and changing population composition frequently have been treated as competing explanations of growing U.S. income inequality. Using the Gini coefficient, we employ a model of conditional change to explore the relative effects of each on changes of family income distribution between 1970 and 1990, across 784 metropolitan areas and public use microdata areas (PUMAs). Changes in both industrial structure and population characteristics are found to have significant and opposite effects on family income distribution, although there are sharp differences by decade in the dynamics that underlie increasing inequality. Our central conclusion is that it is too soon to eliminate deindustrialization as a significant cause of increased earnings inequality.
(UNITED STATES, CITIES, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION COMPOSITION).
English - pp. 365-380.
A. Chevan and R. Stokes, Department of Sociology, University of Massachusetts, Thompson Hall, Amherst, MA 01003, U.S.A.
chevan@soc.umass.edu.
***
HIRSCHMAN, Charles; ALBA, Richard; FARLEY, Reynolds.
The meaning and measurement of race in the U.S. census: Glimpses into the future.
The 1996 Racial and Ethnic Targeted Test (RAETT) was a "mail-out mail-back" household survey with an experimental design of eight alternative questionnaire formats containing systematic variations in race, instructions, question order and other aspects of the measurement. The eight different questionnaires were administered to random subsamples of six "targeted" populations: geographic areas with ethnic concentrations of whites, blacks, American Indians, Alaskan natives, Asian and Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics. The major conclusion is that allowing multiple responses to the "race" question in the 2000 census (and other variations in measurement that were considered in RAETT) had only a slight impact on the measured racial composition of the population. Another finding was a dramatic reduction in nonresponse to the combined race/Hispanic-origin question relative to all other questionnaire formats. We conclude that the concept of "origins" may be closer to the popular understanding of American diversity than is the antiquated concept of race.
(UNITED STATES, POPULATION CENSUSES, RACES, DATA COLLECTION, MEASUREMENT, QUALITY OF DATA, METHODOLOGY).
English - pp. 381-393.
C. Hirschman, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, Department of Sociology, Box 353340, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-3340, U.S.A., R. Alba, Department of Sociology, State University of New York at Albany, U.S.A., R. Farley, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, U.S.A.
charles@u.washington.edu.
***
The accuracy of survey-reported marital status: Evidence from survey records matched to social security records.
Researchers have concluded that divorced persons often fail to report accurate marital information in surveys. I revisit this issue using surveys matched exactly to Social Security data. Older divorced persons frequently misreport their marital status, but there is evidence that the misreporting is unintentional. I offer some suggestions on how surveys can be improved.
(UNITED STATES, DATA COLLECTION, QUALITY OF DATA, DIVORCED PERSONS, SURVEYS, MATCHING).
English - pp. 395-399.
D. A. Weaver, Social Security Administration, Division of Economic Research, 9th floor, ITC Building, 500 E Street SW, Washington, DC 20254-0001, U.S.A.
David.A.Weaver@ssa.gov.
***
DEMOGRAPHY, 2000, Vol. 37, No. 4
Maternal employment and time with children: Dramatic change or surprising continuity?
Despite the rapid rise in mothers' labor force participation, mothers' time with children has tended to be quite stable over time. In the past, nonemplolved mothers' time with children was reduced by the demands of unpaid family work and domestic chores and by the use of mother substitutes for childcare, especially in large families. Today employed mothers seek ways to maximize time with children: They remain quite likely to work part-time or to exit from the labor force for some years when their children are young; they also differ from nonemployed mothers in other uses of time (housework, volunteer work, leisure). In addition, changes in children's lives (e.g., smaller families, the increase in preschool enrollment, the extended years of financial dependence on parents as more attend college) are altering the time and money investments that children require from parents. Within marriage, fathers are spending more time with their children than in the past, perhaps increasing the total time children spend with parents even as mothers work more hours away from home.
(UNITED STATES, EMPLOYMENT, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, MOTHER, CHILDREN, COST OF CHILDREN, HOURS OF WORK, PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT, LABOUR FORCE, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION)
English - pp. 401-414.
S. M. Bianchi, Center on Population, Gender, and social Inequality, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, U.S.A.
sbianchi@socy.umd.edu.
***
Explaining levels of within-group wage inequality in U.S. labor markets.
Most research on earnings inequality has focused on the growing gap between workers of different races and at different education, age, and income levels, but a large portion of the increasing inequality has actually occurred within these groups. This article focuses on the extent and sources of "within-group" wage inequality in more than 500 labor markets in the United States in 1990. In addition to documenting that within-group wage inequality across regions varies more widely today than over the past several decades, the analysis reveals that two frequently cited explanations of rising wage inequality over time have little impact on within-group wage inequality when measured at the local labor market level: (1) industrial shifts and (2) increased technology and trade. By contrast, flexible and insecure employment conditions (e.g., unemployment, contingent work, and immigration) are associated strongly with high local levels of within-group wage inequality, especially among women.
(UNITED STATES, LABOUR MARKET, WAGES, WAGE EARNERS, WAGE LEVEL, EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, INCOME, EDUCATION, IMMIGRATION)
English - pp. 415-430.
L. McCall, Department of Sociology, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, U.S.A.
lmccall@rci.rutgers.edu.
***
Guo, Guang; Mullan Harris, Kathleen.
The mechanisms mediating the effects of poverty on children's intellectual development.
Although adverse consequences of poverty for children are documented widely, little is understood about the mechanisms through which the effects of poverty disadvantage young children. In this analysis we investigate multiple mechanisms through which poverty affects a child's intellectual development. Using data from the NLSY and structural equation models, we have constructed five latent factors (cognitive stimulation, parenting style, physical environment, child's ill health at birth, and ill health in childhood) and have allowed these factors, along with child care, to mediate the effects of poverty and other exogenous variables. We produce two main findings. First, the influence of family poverty on children's intellectual development is mediated completely by the intervening mechanisms measured by our latent factors. Second, our analysis points to cognitive stimulation in the home, and (to a lesser extent) to parenting style, physical environment of the home, and poor child health at birth, as mediating factors that are affected by lack of income and that influence children's intellectual development.
(UNITED STATES, POVERTY, CHILD DEVELOPMENT, EARLY CHILDHOOD, CHILD CARE, HEALTH, DISEASES, MORBIDITY, FAMILY ENVIRONMENT, HOUSING CONDITIONS)
English - pp. 431-447.
G. Guo and K. Mullan Harris, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, U.S.A.
guang_guo@unc.edu.
***
The spatial separation of the poor in Canadian cities.
We used the 1991 Canadian census to examine the extent of spatial separation of the poor in Canadian cities. Although there were no extensive areas of blight, decay, or housing abandonment, we found high spatial separation of poor visible minorities in the selected cities. The index of dissimilarity indicates high segregation of poor blacks and moderate separation of poor Asians from the nonpoor population. We tested the effects of three major structural factors -- racial and ethnic segregation, income segregation, and urban redevelopment - and found that racial and ethnic residential patterns are related strongly to the spatial separation of poor persons. The relationship between income segregation and spatial separation of the poor is not significant, however. We also found that the relationship between urban redevelopment and spatial separation of the poor pertains only to blacks. These findings suggest that blacks are vulnerable in the process of urban redevelopment.
(CANADA, CITIES, POVERTY, POOR, URBAN STRUCTURE, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, URBAN SOCIOLOGY, SEGREGATION, ETHNIC MINORITIES, BLACK, INCOME)
English - pp. 449-459.
E. Fong and K. Shibuya, Department of Sociology, University of Toronto, 725 Spadina Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M5S 2J4, Canada.
fong@chass.utoronto.ca.
***
Davidson, Pamela; Anderton, Douglas L.
Demographics of dumping II: A national environmental equity survey and the distribution of hazardous materials handlers.
Using a national survey of facilities governed by the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCPA), we examine the socio-spatial distribution of a much larger group of hazardous materials handlers than did previous environmental equity studies. Overall we find that RCRA-governed facilities are more likely to be sited in working-class neighborhoods with lower percentages of minority residents. We do not find evidence of stark environmental inequities. RCRA facilities, however, are close to neighborhoods with a higher percentage of minority residents. And in nonmetropolitan areas, they are slightly more likely to be located in neighborhoods with a higher percentage of black residents.
(UNITED STATES, CITIES, ENVIRONMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, POLLUTION, WORKING CLASS, MINORITY GROUPS)
English - pp. 461-466.
P. Davidson and D. L. Anderton, Social and Demographic Research Institute, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, W34A Machmer Hall, Box 34830, Amherst, MA 01003-4830, U.S.A.
dla@sadri.umass.edu.
***
Gutmann, Myron P.; Haines, Michael R.; Frisbie, W. Parker; Blanchard, K. Stephen.
Intra-ethnic diversity in Hispanic child mortality, 1890-1910.
Using a representative sample of the Hispanic population of the United States based on the manuscripts of the 1910 census, we estimate childhood mortality for the period from approximately 1890 to 1910. We find high child mortality in the Hispanic population, higher than for non-Hispanic whites but not significantly different than among nonwhite non-Hispanics (mostly African Americans). Hispanic rural farm populations in California, Texas, and Arizona experienced high mortality, but not as high as other Hispanic populations. Child mortality was very high among Hispanic residents of New Mexico and those in Florida outside Tampa; it was especially low in the Hispanic population in Tampa.
(UNITED STATES, CITIES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, HISTORICAL SOURCES, CHILD MORTALITY, ETHNIC GROUPS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)
English - pp. 467-475.
M. P. Gutmann, W. P. Frisbie, Population Research Center, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, U.S.A.; M. R. Haines, Colgate University, Hamilton, NY 13346, U.S.A.; K. S. Blanchard, Our Lady of the Lake University, 411 S.W. 24th Street, San Antonio, TX 78207, U.S.A.
myron@prc.utexas.edu.
***
Griffiths, Paula; Matthews, Zo?; Hinde, Andrew.
Understanding the sex ratio in India: A simulation approach.
The highly masculine sex ratio in India has increased substantially in the 20th century, in contrast to most other countries in the world. Competing arguments alternatively posit underenumeration, highly masculine sex ratios at birth, or excess female mortality throughout the life course as the factors underlying the level of the overall sex ratio; these arguments have not been resolved. Based on population projections that simulate population dynamics, our findings show that small differences in mortality at young ages, persisting over a long period, as well as a sex ratio at birth of 106 males per 100 females, result in a highly, masculine population sex ratio.
(INDIA, SEX RATIO, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, FEMALE MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, UNDERENUMERATION, MODELS, SIMULATION, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY)
English - pp. 477-488.
P. Griffiths, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, University Square, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, U.S.A.; Z. Matthews and A. Hinde, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, U.K.
Plg3@unc.edu.
***
Sol?s, Patricio; Pullum, Starling G.; Frisbie, W. Parker.
Demographic models of birth outcomes and infant mortality: An alternative measurement approach.
Most demographic studies use 2,500 grams of birth weight and 37 weeks of gestation as cutpoints for evaluating the effects of adverse birth outcomes on infant mortality. We propose an alternative strategy, which relies on continuous measures of birth outcomes, identifies an optimal combination of birth weight and gestational age for infant survival, and estimates the effects of adverse birth outcomes in terms of their departure from this "optimal point". We illustrate the advantages of this approach by estimating a logistic model using data from the 1989-1991 NCHS linked birth/infant death files. Finally, we discuss future applications and methodological issues to be resolved in subsequent research.
(UNITED STATES, INFANT MORTALITY, BIRTH WEIGHT, BIRTH AT TERM, PREMATURE BIRTH, MODELS, LINKAGE, METHODOLOGY, MEASUREMENT)
English - pp. 489-498.
P. Sol?s, S. G. Pullum, and W. P. Frisbie, Population Research Center, Department of Sociology, The University of Texas at Austin, 1800 Main Building, Austin, TX 78712, U.S.A.
patricio@prc.utexas.edu.
***
Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts.
This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise "early warning" thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions.
(UNITED STATES, CITIES, SCHOOL POPULATION, SCHOOL ENROLMENT, IMMIGRATION, MIGRATION FLOW, FORECASTS, PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY)
English - pp. 499-510.
P. A. Morrison, RAND, 1700 Main St., Santa Monica, CA 90407, U.S.A.
morrison@rand.org.
***
Marital protection and marital selection: Evidence from a historical-prospective sample of American men.
Whether marriage causes people to live longer or whether healthier people select into marriage is an open question. In this study I followed a sample of men from age 18 to first marriage and ultimately to death. Health in early adulthood was represented by height and weight around age 20. The probability of ever marrying and the conditional probability of marriage in a given time period were lower for smaller men and greater for larger men. Marriage significantly lowered mortality risk even after controlling for health in early adulthood. Thus I found support both for selection into marriage and for protective effects of marriage.
(UNITED STATES, MARRIAGE, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, RISK, POPULATION AT RISK, HEALTH, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, COHORT ANALYSIS)
English - pp. 511-521.
J. E. Murray, Department of Economics, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606-3390, U.S.A.
jmurray@uoft02.utoledo.edu.
***
Diverging fertility among U.S. women who delay childbearing past age 30.
In this paper I examine the evolving association between educational attainment and the timing of births. In the late 1970s, women with four-year college degrees had lower first birth rates before age 30 than women with less education, but rates of first births were similar for the two groups after age 30. From the 1970s to the 1990s, first birth rates decreased before age 30 for all women, but increased after age 30 only for women with four-year college degrees. Parity 2 birth rates also increased for college graduates with a first birth after age 30. These results document widening educational differences in fertility timing between 1975 and 1995, which may reflect period changes at later ages in women's work and family lives.
(UNITED STATES, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, FERTILITY TRENDS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, FIRST BIRTH, BIRTH ORDER, BIRTH RATE)
English - pp. 523-533.
S. P. Martin, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland-College Park, 2112 Art-Sociology Building, College Park, MD 20742-1315, U.S.A.
smartin@socy.umd.edu.
***
DEMOGRAPHY, 2001, Vol. 38, No. 1
Kohler, Hans-Peter; Filipov, Dimitur.
Variance Effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney Formula.
Bongaarts and Feeney have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects: that is, changes in the variance of the fertility schedule over time. If these variance effects are ignored, the mean age at birth and the adjusted total fertility rate are biased. We provide approximations for these biases, and we extend the TFR adjustment to fertility schedules with changing variance. We apply our method to the Swedish baby boom and bust, and show that variance effects are important for evaluating the relative contributions of tempo and quantum effects to the fertility change from 1985 to 1995.
(SWEDEN, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, INDICATORS, TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, BIAS, FERTILITY SCHEDULES, ADJUSTMENT, MATHEMATICAL MODELS).
English - pp. 1-16.
H.-P. Kohler, D. Filipov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.
kohler@demogr.mpg.de.
***
A sensitivity analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates.
Our sensitivity analysis shows that the adjusted TFR'(t) using the formula of Bongaarts and Feeney (1998), which assumes an invariant shape for the fertility schedule, usually does not differ significantly from an adjusted TFR"(t) that allows the shape of the fertility schedule to change at a constant annual rate. Because annual changes in the shape of the fertility schedules often are approximately constant except in abnormal conditions, the Bongaarts-Feeney (B-F) method is generally robust for producing reasonable estimates of the adjusted TFR'(t). The adjusted TFR'(t) neither represents any real cohort experiences from the past nor forecasts any future trend. It merely provides an improved reading of the period fertility measure, which reduces the tempo distortion.
(FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, INDICATORS, TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, BIAS, FERTILITY SCHEDULES, ADJUSTMENT, PERIOD ANALYSIS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS).
English - pp. 17-28.
Zeng Yi, K. C. Land, Center for Demographic Studies and Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0408, U.S.A.
zengyi@Duke.edu.
***
Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Kyvik, Kirsten Ohm; Christensen, Kaare.
Behavior genetic modeling of human fertility: Findings from a contemporary Danish twin study.
Behavior genetic designs and analyses can be used to address issues of central importance to demography. We use this methodology to document genetic influence on human fertility. Our data come from Danish twin pairs born from 1953 to 1959, measured on age at first attempt to get pregnant (FirstTry) and number of children (NumCh). Behavior genetic models were fitted using structural equation modeling and DF analysis. A consistent medium-level additive genetic influence was found for NumCh, equal across genders; a stronger genetic influence was identified for FirstTry, greater for females than for males. A bivariate analysis indicated significant shared genetic variance between NumCh and FirstTry.
(DENMARK, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, GENETICS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, MATERNAL AGE, COMPLETED FERTILITY, TWINS, GENETIC MODELS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH).
English - pp. 29-42.
J. L. Rodgers, Department of Psychology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, U.S.A.; H.-P. Kohler, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany; K. O. Kyvik and K. Christensen, Section for Epidemiology, Institute for Public Health, and the Danish Twin Registry, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark.
jrodgers@ou.edu.
kohler@demogr.mpg.de.
***
Kohler, Hans-Peter; Behrman, Jere R.; Watkins, Susan Cotts.
The density of social networks and fertility decisions: Evidence from South Nyanza district, Kenya.
Demographers have argued increasingly that social interaction is an important mechanism for understanding fertility behavior. Yet it is still quite uncertain whether social learning or social influence is the dominant mechanism through which social networks affect individuals' contraceptive decisions. In this paper we argue that these mechanisms can be distinguished by analyzing the density of the social network and its interaction with the proportion of contraceptive users among network partners. Our analyses indicate that social learning is most relevant with high market activity; in regions with only modest market activity, however, social influence is the dominant means by which social networks affect women's contraceptive use.
(KENYA, ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, FEMALE CONTRACEPTION, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, CHOICE, MARKET ECONOMY, SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR, SOCIAL CONTROL).
English - pp. 43-58.
H.-P. Kohler, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany; J. R. Behrman, Population Studies Center, S. C. Watkins, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298, U.S.A.
kohler@demogr.mpg.de.
***
Increasing fertility in cohabiting unions: Evidence for the second demographic transition in the United States?
As cohabitation becomes increasingly common and accepted, one might expect the meaning of this arrangement to change. In some countries in Europe (e.g., Sweden), as cohabitation became more prevalent, it moved from a deviant status to an acceptable alternative to marriage. Will the same thing happen in the United States? To investigate this question, I examine increases in the proportion of births occurring in cohabiting unions, using data from the 1987-1988 National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) and the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). The standardization and decomposition procedure shows that most of the growth in the proportion of births to cohabitors is the result of increases in the proportion of women cohabiting, rather than changes in union formation behaviors surrounding pregnancies.
(UNITED STATES, FERTILITY TRENDS, COHABITATION, ILLEGITIMATE FERTILITY, ILLEGITIMATE BIRTHS, FERTILITY INCREASE, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION).
English - pp. 59-66.
R. K. Raley, Population Research Center, University of Texas, 336 Burdine, Austin, TX 787-1088, U.S.A.
kraley@prc.utexas.edu.
***
Bloom, Shelah S.; Wypij, David; Das Gupta, Monica.
Dimensions of women's autonomy and the influence on maternal health care utilization in a North Indian city.
The dimensions of women's autonomy and their relationship to maternal health care utilization were investigated in a probability sample of 300 women in Varanasi, India. We examined the determinants of women's autonomy in three areas: control over finances, decision-making power, and freedom of movement. After we control for age, education, household structure, and other factors, women with closer ties to natal kin were more likely to have greater autonomy in each of these three areas. Further analyses demonstrated that women with greater freedom of movement obtained higher levels of antenatal care and were more likely to use safe delivery care. The influence of women's autonomy on the use of health care appears to be as important as other known determinants such as education.
(INDIA, CITIES, WOMEN?S EMANCIPATION, WOMEN?S STATUS, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, PRENATAL CARE, MEDICAL CARE, DECISION MAKING, FAMILY RELATIONSHIPS).
English - pp. 67-78.
S. S. Bloom, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, University Square, CB#8120, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997, U.S.A.; D. Wypij, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, and Children's Hospital, Boston, U.S.A.; M. Das Gupta, Development Economics Research Group, World Bank, MC3-579, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A.
ssbloom@email.unc.edu.
mdasgupta@worldbank.org.
***
Lynch, Scott M.; Brown, J. Scott.
Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: An alternative model of mortality rates.
In this research we develop a model of mortality rates that parameterizes mortality deceleration and compression, permits hypothesis tests for change in these parameters over time, and allows for formal gender comparisons. Our model fits mortality data well across all adult ages 20-105 for 1968-1992 U.S. white data, and the results offer some confirmation of findings of mortality research using conventional methods. We find that the age at which mortality deceleration begins is increasing over time, that decompression of mortality is occurring, and that these trends vary substantially across genders, although male and female mortality patterns appear to be converging to some extent.
(UNITED STATES, MORTALITY TRENDS, MORTALITY DECLINE, MODEL LIFE TABLES, DEATH RATE, ADJUSTMENT, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS).
English - pp. 79-95.
S. M. Lynch, J. S. Brown, Department of Sociology and Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Box 90088, Durham, NC 27708, U.S.A.
slynch@soc.duke.edu.
***
New African American life tables from 1935-1940 to 1985-1990.
New life tables for African Americans are presented from 1935 through 1990. They are based on a historical series of vital statistics data on deaths that have been corrected for age misreporting, on reconstructed population counts that have been adjusted for census underenumeration, and on births that have been corrected for underregistration. The new life tables show rapid mortality declines for both African American males and females from 1935 to 1950, and relatively steady reductions thereafter for females. The smaller declines in male mortality in young adulthood and middle age since the 1950s have led to exceptionally high ratios of male to female mortality at these ages. Corrections for census undercounts lead to higher values of life expectancy than in official life tables, but to less improvement over time. Official estimates of life expectancy at age 65 appear to be about 10% too high around 1940 but only about 1.5% too high in the late 1980s.
(UNITED STATES, BLACKS, LIFE TABLES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, MORTALITY DECLINE, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, AGE REPORTING, UNDERENUMERATION, UNDERREGISTRATION, ADJUSTMENT).
English - pp. 97-114.
I. T. Elo, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298, U.S.A.
popelo@pop.upenn.edu.
***
Filmer, Deon; Pritchett, Lant H.
Estimating wealth effects without expenditure data -- or tears: An application to educational enrollments in States of India.
Using data from India, we estimate the relationship between household wealth and children's school enrollment. We proxy wealth by constructing a linear index from asset ownership indicators, using principal-components analysis to derive weights. In Indian data this index is robust to the assets included, and produces internally coherent results. State-level results correspond well to independent data on per capita output and poverty. To validate the method and to show that the asset index predicts enrollments as accurately as expenditures, or more so, we use data sets from Indonesia, Pakistan, and Nepal that contain information on both expenditures and assets. The results show large, variable wealth gaps in children's enrollment across Indian states. On average a "rich" child is 31 percentage points more likely to be enrolled than a "poor" child, but this gap varies from only 4.6 percentage points in Kerala to 38.2 in Uttar Pradesh and 42.6 in Bihar.
(INDIA, REGIONS, SCHOOL ENROLMENT, EXPENDITURES, WEALTH, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS, FACTOR ANALYSIS, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH).
English - pp. 115-132.
D. Filmer, Development Research Group, World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A.; L. H. Pritchett, John F. Kennedy School of Government, U.S.A.
dfilmer@worldbank.org.
***
Kritz, Mary M.; Gurak, Douglas T.
The impact of immigration on the internal migration of natives and immigrants.
In this paper we examine the internal migratory response, by native-born non-Hispanic white men and foreign-born men in the United States, to recent immigration. Our analysis does not support the claim that natives have made a migratory response to recent immigration. Native-born men and foreign-born men were less likely to leave states that received large numbers of immigrants in the 1980s than they were to leave other states, and native-born men had less propensity toward out-migration than did foreign-born men. Out-migration was most likely to be deterred if recent immigrants originated in Europe or Asia. Although native-born non-Hispanic white men showed a tendency toward out-migration if recent immigrants originated in Latin America or the Caribbean, this result was insignificant after we controlled for state economic and regional context.
(UNITED STATES, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, OUT-MIGRATION, DIFFERENTIAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION TRENDS).
English - pp. 133-145.
M. M. Kritz, D. T. Gurak, Population and Development Program, Department of Rural Sociology, Cornell University, 221 Warren Hall, Itacha, NY 14853, U.S.A.
mmk5@cornell.edu.
***
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