CANADIAN STUDIES IN POPULATION, 2001, Vol. 28, No. 1
A new proposal for measuring marital fertility in historical populations.
In this paper, a critical analysis is made of some of the indices used in numerous historical studies on the decline of fertility. More concretely, it is demonstrated how the Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR) and the Ig and I'g indices of marital fertility designed by Coale (1986) not only are not good indicators of a population's level of marital fertility, but also in some cases (for example, when there is an important delay in female mean age at marriage) can even indicate an increase in marital fertility when in reality it is decreasing. Likewise, a new index for measuring marital fertility (known as the Navarre Index) is presented which takes into account women's average age at marriage as well as their mortality rate during their reproductive period.
(METHODOLOGY, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, INDICATORS, LEGITIMATE FERTILITY RATE, ILLEGITIMATE FERTILITY, AGE AT MARRIAGE, REPRODUCTIVE PERIOD, FERTILITY DECLINE).
English - pp. 1-33.
J. J. Sánchez-Barricarte, Departamento de Sociología, Universidad Pública de Navarra, Campus Arrosadía, 31006 Pamplona, Spain.
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Cultural Influence, Economic Security, and the Fertility Behavior of the Chinese in Canada.
This study explores interactions of cultural influence and economic insecurity and their effects on the fertility behavior of the Chinese in Canada. The importance of group context on the actions of individuals is measured through data from the PUST of the 1971 and 1991 Canadian Censuses. Contextual analysis and random coefficient models are the major statistical tools employed to achieve the above objectives. The Chinese-Canadians are compared to the British-Canadians, who are used as the reference group. The findings suggest that Chinese reproductive norms with pronatalist endowments exert strong influence on the fertility behavior of the Chinese in Canada. This influence effectively counteracts the negative effects of economic insecurity and encourages Chinese immigrants to quickly recover their fertility deficit after the initial immigration stage. The effects of the origin culture on fertility diminish with increasing exposure to the host society. However, even among the native-born or Canadian-born Chinese, the influence of Chinese reproductive norms is still present though not as strong as among the foreign-born Chinese.
(CANADA, CHINA, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, IMMIGRANTS, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION, SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS, CULTURE, SOCIAL NORMS).
English - pp. 35-65.
Zongli Tang, Massachusetts Institute for Social & Economic Research (MISER), University of Massachusetts, Thompson Hall, Box 37515, Amherst, MA 01003-7515, U.S.A.
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MCQUILLAN, Kevin; BELLE, Marilyn.
Lone-Father Families in Canada, 1971-1996.
Demographers and sociologists have paid considerable attention to the situation of lone-parent families. However, until recently, almost all of this work has focused on families headed by a lone mother. This paper seeks to fill an important gap in our knowledge of family change by examining the growth and characteristics of lone-father families in Canada. Using data from the public-use microfiles (PUMFs) of the census, the paper shows that the number of lone-father families has increased significantly in recent years, and that lone fathers are now younger and more likely to have become lone fathers through marital breakdown. The results also suggest that while lone-father families are not as economically disadvantaged as lone-mother families, income levels lag well behind those of two-parent families and have, in relative terms, declined in recent years.
(CANADA, SOCIOLOGY, FAMILY DEMOGRAPHY, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, DIVORCE, FAMILY COMPOSITION, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, HOUSEHOLD INCOME).
English - pp. 67-88.
K. McQuillan, M. Belle, Department of Sociology and Population Studies Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
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Narrowing Sex Differentials in Life Expectancy: Regional Variations, 1971-1991.
A number of industrialized nations have recently experienced some degrees of constriction in their long-standing sex differentials in life expectancy at birth. In this study we examine this phenomenon in the context of Canada's regions between 1971 and 1991: Atlantic (Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island); Quebec, Ontario, and the West (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories). Decomposition analysis based on multiple decrement life tables is applied to address three questions: (1) Are there regional differentials in the degree of narrowing in the sex gap in life expectancy? (2) What is the relative contribution of major causes of death to observed sex differences in average length of life within and across regions? (3) How do the contributions of cause-of-death components vary across regions to either widen or narrow the sex gap in survival? It is shown that the magnitude of the sex gap is not uniform across the regions, though the differences are not large. The most important contributors to a narrowing of the sex gap in life expectancy are heart disease and external types of mortality (i.e., accidents, violence, and suicide), followed by lung cancer and other types of chronic conditions. In substantive terms these results indicate that over time men have been making sufficient gains in these causes of death as to narrow some of the gender gap in overall survival. Regions show similarity in these effects.
(CANADA, REGIONS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MORTALITY TRENDS, LIFE EXPECTANCY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, CAUSES OF DEATH, VIOLENT DEATHS, CANCER, CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES, METHODOLOGY, LIFE TABLES).
English - pp. 89-110.
F. Trovato, N. Lalu, Department of Sociology and Population Research Laboratory, University of Alberta, Edmondon, Alberta, Canada.
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Population forecasting in Canada: Conceptual and methodological developments.
After introducing the value and interest in population forecasting, the thrust of the paper is on conceptual issues and methodological developments in population forecasting. It provides an historical overview of population projections by Statistics Canada and is presented for the periods before and after the 1970s, covering a seventy-year history. The evolution of the current regional cohort component projection model is articulated by describing the methodological developments by components in each of the six sets of population projections from the 1970s to the beginning of the new century. Also presented is a brief account of the main special/customized projections prepared. Finally, the paper provides a brief evaluation of the accuracy of selected past projections.
(CANADA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POPULATION FORECASTS, METHODOLOGY, COMPONENT METHOD).
English - pp. 111-154.
M. V. George, Demography Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
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CANADIAN STUDIES IN POPULATION, 2001, Vol. 28, No. 2
Special issue on Longitudinal Methodology
The fundamentals of longitudinal research: An overview.
This paper outlines briefly the historical development of ideas related to longitudinal studies and their advantages over cross-sectional studies. Then it points out a few complicating factors that arise with the analysis of longitudinal data and highlights some of the approaches adopted to manage those complicating factors and illustrated in the papers included in this Special Issue. The overall aim is to promote a better understanding of the information that longitudinal data provide and of the suitable techniques needed to analyze such data.
(METHODOLOGY, METHODS OF ANALYSIS, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, PERIOD ANALYSIS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 169-185.
F. Rajulton, Population Studies Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
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Theoretical and technical orientations toward longitudinal research in the social sciences.
This paper views life as a developmental process, embedded in a multilevel context. It addresses a number of theoretical, modelling and measurement issues at a relatively abstract level, integrating insights from different disciplines that study developmental processes. At the theoretical level, the usefulness of the life course as an organizing principle is discussed. At the analytical level, the main building blocks of the life course are identified, with the life event being the unit of analysis. Each life event has three core aspects: the time at occurrence, the likelihood of occurrence (risk of experiencing the event), and the reason for occurrence. Notions of time, risk, exposure, uncertainty, and interaction are discussed. These basic concepts neatly connect life course theory and life history models.
(SOCIAL SCIENCES, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, LIFE CYCLE, RISK, RISK EXPOSURE, MODELS, PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODELS, SOCIAL RESEARCH).
English - pp. 189-217.
F. Willekens, Population Studies Centre, University of Groningen, Netherlands.
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Unitary social science for causal understanding: Experiences and prospects of life course research.
Longitudinal data are superior to cross-sectional data for explaining social processes. Yet, the existing division of labour in social science is a serious handicap for causal understanding of human behaviour. This is demonstrated in this article with the quite unrelated coexistence of sociological research on life histories and psychological research on individual development. Two examples are discussed: the intergenerational reproduction of social inequities and the openness versus closedness of labour markets. Though there is an increasing awareness of problems of selectivity and unobserved heterogeneity in conventional social research, statistical modelling of these problems cannot replace the need for transdisciplinary data collection and research.
(BEHAVIOURAL SCIENCES, SOCIAL SCIENCES, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, SOCIAL DIFFERENTIATION, LABOUR MARKET, SOCIAL RESEARCH, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH).
English - pp. 219-248.
M. Diewald, Gerhard-Mercator-Universität Duisburg, Fachbereich 1/Soziologie, Duisburg, Germany.
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LE BOURDAIS, Céline; RENAUD, Jean.
Using event-history analysis: Lessons from fifteen years of practice.
Innovative statistical methods and new longitudinal surveys paved the way for the widespread use of event-history analysis in social science during the last two decades. This paper does not attempt to provide a comprehensive review of these innovative methods. More modestly, it aims at identifying and describing the problems encountered by two privileged users. Two types of problems are discussed here. The first arises from the design of the surveys, or the way data are collected, and the difficulty in testing specific hypotheses with the existing databases. This is the kind of problem that Le Bourdais has faced in analyzing family dynamics. The second has to do with the limitations of the survival regression models when the longitudinal phenomena studied can no longer properly be thought of as a small number of unique events. This is the type of problem encountered by Renaud in his ten-year Quebec panel survey of new immigrants.
(SOCIAL SCIENCES, SOCIAL RESEARCH, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, FOLLOW-UP SURVEYS, DATA ANALYSIS, DATA EVALUATION, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, IMMIGRANTS, METHODOLOGY).
English - pp. 249-261.
C. Le Bourdais, Centre Interuniversitaire d'études démographiques/Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Montréal, QC, Canada; J. Renaud, Centre d'études ethniques, Université de Montréal, QC, Canada.
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Longitudinal research in social science: Some theoretical challenges.
Every advance carries with it potential problems, and longitudinal analysis is no exception. This paper focuses on the problems related to the massive amounts of data generated by longitudinal surveys. It is argued that a proliferation of data may be to the good, but it will not necessarily lead to better scientific knowledge. Most demographers think the logical positivest way - that theory arises out of empirical generalizations. But massive empirical investigations have only led to disappointing theoretical outcomes in demography. This paper discusses one way out of this impasse: to adopt a different view of theory, a model-based view of science. Theoretical models based on empirical generalization should become the main representational device in science.
(SOCIAL SCIENCES, DEMOGRAPHY, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, DATA ANALYSIS, MODELS, THEORETICAL MODELS, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH).
English - pp. 262-283.
T. K. Burch, Population Studies Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
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LAPLANTE, Benoît; HÉBERT, Benoît-Paul.
An introduction to the use of linear models with correlated data.
Correlated data originate when observations are not selected independently because of sampling design, study design (especially panel studies), or spatial distribution of the population. In these situations, conventional methods for estimating the parameters of linear models are inappropriate, and the conventional methods for estimating the variances of these estimates may yield biased results. These two problems are different, but they are related. This paper provides an introduction to the problems caused by correlated data and two possible solutions to these problems. First, we present the two problems and try to specify the relations between the two as clearly as possible. Second, we provide a critical presentation of random effects, mixed effects, and hierarchical models that would help researchers to see their relevance in other kinds of linear models, particularly the so-called measurement models.
(MODELS, STOCHASTIC MODELS, MULTIPLE CORRELATION, BIAS).
English - pp. 287-311.
B. Laplante, B.-P. Hébert, Centre Interuniversitaire d'études démographiques/Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Montréal, QC, Canada.
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The role of microsimulation in longitudinal data analysis.
Microsimulation is well known as a tool for static analysis of tax and transfer policies, for the generation of programmic cost estimates, and dynamic analyses of socio-economic and demographic systems. However, microsimulation also has the potential to contribute to longitudinal data analysis in several ways, including extending the range of outputs generated by a model, addressing several defective-data problems, and serving as a vehicle for missing-data imputation. This paper discusses microsimulation procedures suitable for several commonly-used statistical models applied to longitudinal data. It also addresses the unique role that can be played by microsimulation in longitudinal data analysis, and the problem of accounting for the several sources of variability associated with microsimulation procedures.
(MICROSIMULATION, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, MODELS, STOCHASTIC MODELS, DEFECTIVE DATA, QUALITY OF DATA).
English - pp. 313-339.
D. A. Wolf, Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University, New York, U.S.A.
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Analysis of life histories: A state space approach.
The computer package LIFEHIST written by the author, is meant for analyzing life histories through a state-space approach. Basic ideas on which the various programs have been built are described in this paper in a non-mathematical language. Users can use various programs for multistate analyses based on Markov and semi-Markov frameworks and sequences of transitions implied in life histories. The package is under constant revision and programs for using a few specific models the author thinks will be useful for analyzing longitudinal data will be incorporated in the near future.
(EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, LIFE CYCLE, COMPUTER PROGRAMMES, MARKOV CHAINS, MODELS, STOCHASTIC MODELS).
English - pp. 341-359.
F. Rajulton, Population Studies Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
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An overview of the survey of labour and income dynamics (SLID).
The Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics adds a new dimension to existing data on the labour market activity and income. The survey focuses on the whole range of transitions, durations, and repeat occurrences of Canadians' financial and work situations. As a longitudinal survey, it also provides information on the fluctuations in family characteristics. Special features of the survey as well as major themes covered by the survey are described in this paper. In addition, suggestions are offered for obtaining or working with the data.
(CANADA, LABOUR MARKET, INCOME, WORKING LIFE, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, FOLLOW-UP SURVEYS, DATA COLLECTION, DATA ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 363-375.
P. Giles, Special Surveys Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
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After the first steps: The evolution of the national population health survey.
Many changes take place over the lifetime of a longitudinal panel survey. Changing priorities, new supplements, and conflicting demands are factors that may be unforeseen. The evolution of the National Population Health Survey (NPHS) since its first cycle in 1994/95 is discussed in this context. Statistics Canada contacts panel members every two years for twenty years, to estimate the health of Canadians and its determinants, health care use, and other characteristics. The NPHS was designed to provide both longitudinal and cross-sectional estimates, and to allow sample and content supplements. This paper describes the NPHS and the changes in focus needed to move the panel forward to Cycle 2 and beyond.
(CANADA, HEALTH CONDITIONS, MEDICAL CARE, HEALTH SURVEYS, DATA COLLECTION, DATA ANALYSIS, METHODOLOGY, METHODS OF ANALYSIS, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, PERIOD ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 377-390.
D. Yeo, National Population Health Survey, Household Survey Methods Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
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The national longitudinal survey of children and youth -- Overview and changes after three cycles.
The National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) is a long-term study to monitor child development and well being of Canada's children as they grow from infancy to adulthood. To do so, a representative sample of Canadian children between 0-11 years old was selected and interviewed in 1994-95. Interviews are conducted every two years and the current plans are to follow that cohort of children until they reach the age of 25. The survey has now gone through three collection cycles and already a number of changes hav been observed. The paper will give an overview of the objectives of the survey, the survey design, the collection methodology, the survey content and the products and research that have already been done. The last section will present the future direction of the survey.
(CANADA, CHILD DEVELOPMENT, INDIVIDUAL WELFARE, DATA COLLECTION, FOLLOW-UP SURVEYS, METHODOLOGY, METHODS OF ANALYSIS, COHORT ANALYSIS).
English - pp. 391-405.
S. Michaud, Special Surveys Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
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BLOSSFELD, Hans-Peter; MILLS, Melinda.
A causal approach ot interrelated family events: A cross-national comparison fo cohabitation, non-marital conception, and marriage.
One of the most important advances brought about by life course and event history studies is the use of parallel or independent processes as explaining history factors in transition rate models. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a causal approach to the study of interrelated family events. Various types of interdependent processes are described first, followed by two event history perspectives: the "system" and "causal" approaches. The authors assert that the causal approach is more appropriate from an analytical point of view as it provides a straightforward solution to simultaneity, cause-effect lags, and temporal shapes of effects. Based on comparative cross-national applications in West and East Germany, Canada, Latvia and the Netherlands, we demonstrate the usefulness of the causal approach by analyzing two highly interdependent family processes: entry into marriage (for individuals who are in a consensual union) as the dependent process and first pregnancy/childbirth as the explaining one. Both statistical and theoretical explanations are explored emphasizing the need for conceptual reasoning.
(GERMANY, CANADA, LATVIA, NETHERLANDS, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODELS, COHABITATION, PREMARITAL CONCEPTIONS, FIRST MARRIAGE, MARITAL STATUS).
English - pp. 409-437.
H.-P. Blossfeld, M. Mills, Faculty of Sociology, University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany.
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Sequence analysis in demographic research.
This paper examines the salient features of sequence analysis in demographic research. The new approach allows a holistic perspective on life course analysis and is based on a representation of lives as sequences of states. Some of the methods for analyzing such data are sketched, from complex description to optimal matching of monoethetic divisive algorithms. After a short illustration of a demographically-relevant example, the needs in terms of data collection and the opportunities of applying the same approach to synthetic data are discussed.
(EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, DATA COLLECTION, DATA ANALYSIS, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH).
English - pp. 439-458.
F. C. Billari, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.
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HARVEY, Andrew; WILSON, Clarke.
Evolution of daily activity patterns from 1971 to 1981: A study of the Halifax activity panel survey.
Episode sequences from diaries are the richest source of information about daily activities of individuals and households available to social scientists. Their use has been advocated as an approach to urban planning that incorporates explicit consideration of the demands made by daily life on the built environment. The paper examines sequences of daily activities and activities augmented by data on their settings (including location and the presence of other people) to measure change in daily behaviour from 1971 to 1981. Diaries were supplied by respondents to the Halifax panel study carried out at Dalhousie University.
(CANADA, SOCIAL SCIENCES, FOLLOW-UP SURVEYS, LIFE CYCLE, BEHAVIOUR, URBAN ENVIRONMENT, URBAN PLANNING).
English - pp. 459-489.
A. S. Harvey, Saint Mary's University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; C. Wilson, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
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RAJULTON, Fernando; RAVANERA, Zenaida R.
Stability and change: Illustrations with categorical and binary responses.
Longitudinal data consist of time-sequences of measurements, counts or categorical responses from the same experimental units. Thus, they have a distinct advantage over cross-sectional data in that they provide us the information on both stability and change. It is recommended therefore that any longitudinal study should tap this information through available techniques. In social science research, the use of categorical and binary responses is more frequent than the use of continuous-time responses. This paper aims to show that more detailed and sophisticated analysis can be done even with categorical and binary sequences collected through longitudinal surveys. After proposing two paradigms that may be used in the explanations of stability and change, the paper presents two illustrations for the analysis of categorical and binary sequences.
(LONGITUDINAL SURVEYS, DATA COLLECTION, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, METHODS OF ANALYSIS, RESEARCH METHODS, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, SOCIAL RESEARCH).
English - pp. 491-512.
F. Rajulton, Z. R. Ravanera, Population Studies Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
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Women's employment transitions and changes in psychological distress.
The effect of employment on women's psychological well being has become an important issue in the sociology of mental health. Although work-for-pay is thought to have an overall positive impact on women's psychological well being, not all women equally experience this positive effect. The objective of this study is to assess the effect of transitions in employment status on changes in psychological distress among women in two types of family setting: lone parent families and married couple families (including common-law unions). Using a framework which combines a longitudinal design with a structural equation modelling multigroup analysis, the current study indicates clearly that the employment transitions and employment stability have no uniform effect on the mental health of all mothers. Specifically, transition into employment offers a significant reduction in feelings of distress only among married mothers. Single mothers, in contrast are found to experience a significant increase in the level of distress when they move out of employment. The results of this study point to some advantages of longitudinal research designs over cross-section designs.
(CANADA, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, WORKING LIFE, LIFE CYCLE, MENTAL HEALTH, PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS, INDIVIDUAL WELFARE, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, MARRIED PERSONS).
English - pp. 513-533.
P. Wilk, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
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Modeling hierarchically clustered longitudinal survival processes with applications to child mortality and maternal health.
This paper merges two parallel developments since the 1970s of new statistical tools for data analysis: statistical methods known as hazard models that are used for analyzing event-duration data and statistical methods for analyzing hierarchically clustered data known as multilevel models. These developments have rarely been integrated in research practice and the formalization and estimation of models for hierarchically clustered survival data remain largely uncharted. I attempt to fill some of this gap and demonstrate the merits of formulating and estimating multilevel hazard models with longitudinal data.
(CANADA, DATA ANALYSIS, MODELS, PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODELS, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, STOCHASTIC MODELS, CHILD MORTALITY, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH).
English - pp. 535-561.
B. Kuate-Defo, Research Laboratory PRONUSTIC, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC H3C 3J7, Canada.
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