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POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, December 1998, Vol. 17, N? 6
GARASKY, Steven; MEYER, Daniel R.
Examining cross-state variation in the increase in father-only families.
Each state has the power to establish its own policy and laws relating to child custody determination. The number of single-parent families with children that are headed by fathers has been growing in the United States. This paper explores the extent of cross-state variation in the prevalence in father-only families in 1990, and the extent to which there was cross-state variation in the increase in father-only families in the 1980s. The 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMs) drawn from the US decennial censuses are used. Decomposition analyses of growth indicate that increases in the number of father-only families occurred across all states during this period, but at varying rates. The primary reason for the increase in most states is an increase in the proportion of ever-married single-parent families that are headed by a father. It is for these families that are headed by divorced or separated parents that state policy relating to child custody determination is most relevant.
(united states, sate, one-parent family, father, child custody, family law).
English - pp. 479-495.
S. Garasky, Department of Human Development and Family Studies, Iowa State University, 1086 LeBaron Hall, Ames, IA 50111-1120, U.S.A.; D. R. Meyer, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, U.S.A.
sgarasky@iastate.edu.
***
CUMMINGS, Scott; LAMBERT, Thomas.
Immigration restrictions and the American worker: An examination of competing interpretations.
This paper examines three competing interpretations of support for tougher immigration restrictions. One interpretation posits that tighter restrictions are favored by those in direct competition with immigrants for jobs, namely low or unskilled workers who toil in labor markets that are low-paying and often unstable. A second line of thought is that greater restrictions are favored by workers who perceive immigrants as potential competitors in labor markets, even though there may be no real basis for such perceptions. The third interpretation explaining support for tougher restrictions is rooted in a broad based cultural nativism or nationalism, and relies heavily on traditional theories of prejudice and discrimination. Data for the study are derived from the 1992 National Election Survey, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Contrary to theoretical expectations, neither actual nor perceived economic insecurity explain variations in current levels of support for tougher immigration restrictions among American workers. The theoretical significance of the findings are discussed and elaborated. Suggestions are made for future research in this important area of inquiry.
(united states, immigration policy, immigrant workers, labour market, discrimination).
English - pp. 497-520.
S. Cummings, Urban Studies Unit, University of Louisville, 426 West Bloom, Louisville, KY 40208, U.S.A.; T. Lambert, Midway College, USA.
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Research on gender in demography: Limitations and constraints.
This paper explores the issue of gender in demography, focusing on the question of why we don't know more than we do about the role of gender in demographic processes. Our lack of knowledge is partly explained by demography's research and policy focus on the two questions central to the field in recent decades, fertility decline and the relationship between economic and demographic change. The focus on these issues -- sometimes at the expense of other research questions and issues -- has meant that some social processes surrounding demographic change, including the role of gender, have not received the attention they deserve. Understanding gender's complex relationship to social behaviors, such as demographic behavior, requires attention to social/cultural context and to power. Demography needs to expand our knowledge of gender through the development of new research questions, research designs, and methodologies. Doing so will give us new insights into demographic processes.
(demographic research, research policy, sex roles, sex differentials).
English - pp. 521-538.
N. E. Riley, Department of Sociology/Anthropology, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME 04011, U.S.A.
nriley@bowdoin.edu.
***
Estimates of the abortion demand of young and older teenagers.
This study estimates the demand for abortion by younger (ages 15-17) and older (ages 18-19) teenagers. The empirical results show, for both age groups, abortion demand is price inelastic and a normal good with respect to income. Teenage abortion demand is also found to be positively related to labor force participation and state Medicaid funding and negatively related to religiosity and unemployment. State family planning programs, AFDC benefits, and parental involvement laws are found not to be significant determinants of teenage abortion demand.
(united states, adolescent pregnancy, induced abortion, economic demography, demand).
English - pp. 539-549.
M. H. Medoff, Department of Economics, California State University, 1250 Bellflower Blvd, Long Beach, CA 90840-4607, U.S.A.
mmedoff@csulb.edu.
***
SPEIZER, Ilene S.; YATES, Andrew J.
Polygyny and African couple research.
Fertility and family planning research has recently begun to focus on couples, rather than solely on women. High levels of polygyny in sub-Saharan Africa create two interesting problems for couple analyses. First, some men match with multiple wives in a given sample. Hence observations of a dependent variable that are a function of the responses from a polygynous man are not statistically independent. To correct for this, we propose that researchers use the method of generalized estimating equations. The second problem occurs when survey questions do not properly account for men having multiple partners. Variables constructed from such questions may contain error. Until better data are available, we propose that researchers randomly select a wife for each polygynous man to reduce the effects of this error. We illustrate these ideas by studying the determinants of couples having innovative family planning behaviors and attitudes in Niger.
(africa south of sahara, niger, polygyny, couple, surveys, methodology).
English - pp. 551-570.
I. S. Speizer and A. J. Yates, Tulane University, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Department of International Health and Development, 1440 Canal Street, Suite 2201, New Orleans, LA 70112-2715, U.S.A.
ispeize@mailhost.tcs.tulane.edu.
***
POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, April 1999, Vol. 18, N? 1-2
Special issue: Medical Demography to the Study of AIDS
Guest editors: David F. Sly and Kara S. Riehman
SLY, David F.; RIEHMAN, Kara S.
Substance use, multiple substance use, sexual risk taking and condom use among low income women.
Hypotheses are tested relating substance use and number of different substances used to sexual risk taking, contraceptive method and condom use. It is expected that substance use and number of substances used will be positively associated with sexual risk taking, negatively associated with condom use and that women using substances and women using more substances will use less efficient forms of contraception. The sample consists of low income women recruited from sites in Miami, Florida in 1994/1995. For a woman to be eligible she had to be between the ages of 18-45, not pregnant and not knowingly HIV positive. She also had to be engaging in behaviors which put her at risk for HIV infection. The sample include 552 black, Hispanic and white non-Hispanic women. Descriptive analyses are used to depict the bivariate associations hypothesized, and three different logit models are used to test the hypotheses in a multivariate format for each sexual risk and each contraceptive/condom relationship. The analyses show a strong association between both substance use and number of different substances used and sexual risk taking. Women using two and three or more different substances have higher odds of being exposed to sexual risks. Substance use and the number of substances used is not associated with type of contraception. However, substance use and number of substances used has a positive association with condom use for both women using less efficient and efficient methods of contraception. It appears that although substance use increases sexual risk taking, women who use substances are more likely to use condoms than women who do not use substances.
(united states, cities, women, narcotics, sexual behaviour, aids, risk, contraceptive usage, condom).
English - pp. 1-22.
D. F. Sly, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, U.S.A.; K. S. Riehman, Drug Abuse Research Training Center, UCLA School of Medicine, U.S.A.
***
LOGAN, T. K.; LEUKEFELD, Carl.
HIV risk behavior and drug use among heterosexual male crack users by prostitution involvement.
Crack and prostitution, or sex exchange, have been linked to the heterosexual spread of HIV (e.g. Inciardi 1993, 1995). Previous studies have found that among female crack users there are subgroups who do and do not become involved in prostitution (e.g. Logan, Farabee & Leukefeld 1998; Logan & Leukefeld 1998). However, there has been little focus in the literature on subgroups of male heterosexual crack users who are or are not involved in prostitution. The purpose of this study was to examine differences in male heterosexual crack users who reported no involvement in prostitution as clients (n = 4,208), males who reported involvement in prostitution as clients but not in the month preceding the interview (n = 2,774), and males who reported involvement in prostitution as clients the month preceding the interview (n = 2,283) from a multi-site sample of male crack users who participated in the National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA) AIDS Cooperative Agreement Project from 20 sites across the nation. Results of the logistic regression indicated that having an STD three or more times and using drugs during sex were associated with ever being involved in prostitution as clients, while using drugs during sex and having 5 or more sexual partners the month preceding the interview were significantly associated with being involved in prostitution as clients at the time of the interview. Implications for interventions are discussed.
(united states, men, aids, prostitution, narcotics, sexual behaviour, risk, sexually transmitted diseases).
English - pp. 23-38.
T. K Logan and C. Leukefeld, Center on Drug and Alcohol Research, University of Kentucky, U.S.A.
***
CHITWOOD, Dale D.; McCoy, Clyde B.; COMERFORD, Mary; KITNERI, Kathi.
The prevalence and incidence of HIV among injection drug users: A five year panel study.
Six hundred and one injection drug users (IDUs) who attended drug treatment programs in Miami, Florida, were enrolled in a panel study to determine the prevalence and incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and associated risk factors. A structured questionnaire which elicited injection and sexual behaviors was administered and blood was obtained by venipuncture. All participants were reassessed at six month intervals for 5 years. The baseline prevalence of HIV was 16.3%. African-Americans had a prevalence of HIV (37. 1 %) that was significantly higher than that of non-Hispanic whites (7.6%); the prevalence of HIV among Hispanics was 27.2%. Persons who were more than thirty years of age were more likely to test HIV positive (17.8%) than were younger participants (9.7%). The annual incidence per 1000 person-years of exposure for the 503 initially seronegative participants was consistently low for each year of the study. The 5 year incidence was 4.1 per 1000 person years; 7.5 for men and 1.7 for women, 7.5 for African-Americans and 3.8 for non-Hispanic whites. No Hispanic participants seroconverted. Multivariate logistic techniques were used to identify the independent risk factors for HIV prevalence. Earlier injection, ethnicity, and income were independently associated with HIV serostatus. A history of a sexually transmitted disease was marginally associated with HIV prevalence. Low incidence probably is a function of the reduction of risk behavior that occurred over the course of the study and the stage of the epidemic.
(united states, cities, aids, narcotics, sexual behaviour, ethnicity).
English - pp. 39-53.
D. D. Chitwood, C. B. McCoy, M. Comerford and K. Kitneri, Comprehensive Drug Research Center, University of Miami, Florida, U.S.A.
***
LEUKEFELD, Carl; LOGAN, T. K.; FARABEE, David; WATSON, Deena; SPALDING, Hugh; PURVIS, Richard.
Drug dependency and HIV testing among state prisoners.
HIV and drug use are higher among prisoners than the general US population. This study examines drug dependency/use and differences between prisoners who volunteered for HIV testing and those who did not in a less densely populated state. It was hypothesized that prisoners who volunteered for an HIV test were engaged in more drug use and other risky behaviors than those who did not. Survey data were collected from 600 randomly selected inmates (567 males and 33 females) from 15 state prisons. Subjects were male (95%), white (63%), never married (43%), and 44% volunteered for an HIV test since entering prison. Ninety-two percent of inmates met DSM criteria for drug dependence in their lifetime. Those who volunteered for HIV testing were 2.6 times more likely to ever have used PCP; 1.5 times more likely to ever have used cocaine; 1.4 times more likely to ever have had a problem with drugs; 1.3 times more likely to have used opiates, and 1.6 times more likely to report having been sexually or physically abused. Implications for interventions are discussed.
(united states, aids, narcotics, prisons).
English - pp. 55-69.
C. Leukefeld, T. K. Logan, D. Watson, Center on Drug and Alcohol Research, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky, U.S.A.; D. Farabee, Drug Abuse Research Center, University of California at Los Angeles, U.S.A.; H. Spalding, Division of Substance Abuse, Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S.A.; R. Purvis, Division of Corrections, Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S.A.
***
McCOY, Clyde B.; METSCH, Lisa R.; McCOY, H. Virginia; LAI, Shenghan.
A gender comparison of HIV and drug use across the rural-urban continuum.
Despite the central role of women drug users in escalating AIDS statistics, there is still a limited number of studies that examine the roles of gender and drug use type in HIV seroprevalence. This lacuna in the research literature has led to significant gaps in researchers' understanding of how and to what extent women may differ in their drug-using and HIV risk behaviors compared to their better-studied male counterparts. This study, derived from a sample of 3,555 out-of-treatment drug users residing in three South Florida urban and rural communities, attempts to compare the drug usage and needle and sexual risk behaviors of male and female drug users that put them at risk for HIV infection. The overall seropositivity rate for women drug users was 26.5% compared to 19.5% for their male counterparts. Results of multivariate analyses indicate that females compared to males were 1.4 times more likely to be HIV seropositive. Risk behaviors associated with this elevated seropositivity include living arrangements, homeless status, drug use, sexual trading behaviors, and history of STDs. Furthermore, there was a strong linear relationship between drug use type and HIV seroprevalence among women drug users. Compared to those who were neither crack smokers nor injectors of illicit drugs, those who were crack smokers only were 2 times more likely to be HIV seropositive, while those who were both crack smokers and injectors were 5 times more likely to be HIV seropositive, and those who were injectors only were 6 times more likely to be HIV seropositive. These findings indicate that among women, drug abuse and its associated risk behaviors increase the vulnerability of this population for HIV and thus render them an extremely important priority population on which to focus HIV prevention and public health efforts and programs.
(united states, aids, narcotics, rural-urban differentials, sex differentials).
English - pp. 71-87.
C. B. McCoy, L. R. Metsch, H. V. McCoy and S. Lai, Comprehensive Drug Research Center, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Miami School of Medicine, Miami, Florida, U.S.A.
***
STATON, Michele; LEUKEFELD, Carl; LOGAN, T. K.; ZIMMERMAN, Rick; LYNAM, Don; MILICH, Rich; MARTIN, Cathy; McCLANAHAN, Karen; CLAYTON, Richard.
Gender differences in substance use and initiation of sexual activity.
Even though widespread efforts have focused on educating young adults about HIV and AIDS, many individuals continue to engage in behaviors that place them at risk. These behaviors include frequent experimentation with alcohol and other drugs prior to sex, engaging in sexual activity with different partners, and inconsistent safe sex practices (Butcher et al. 1991). The combination of these risky behaviors causes increased concern about the spread of HIV among those of college age. This study focused on two behaviors by examining the relationship between substance use during adolescence and early initiation of sexual activity in a sample of 950 subjects aged 19-21 in a mid-sized southern city. Results indicate that early use of alcohol and marijuana relates to earlier initiation of sexual activity and subsequent risky sexual behavior among young adults. Also, gender differences were observed for frequent users of marijuana and alcohol with males engaging in riskier sexual practices. Recommendations for interventions are made.
(united states, cities, narcotics, aids, sexual behaviour, risk, adolescents, sex differentials).
English - pp. 89-100.
M. Staton, C. Leukefeld, T. K. Logan, R. Zimmerman, D. Lynam, R. Milich, C. Martin, K. McClanahan and R. Clayton, Center on Drug and Alcohol Research, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, U.S.A.
***
METSCH, Lisa R.; McCOY, Clyde B.; SHULTZ, James M.; PAGE, J. Bryan; PHILIPPE, Elizabeth; McKAY, Carolyn.
Gender comparisons of injection drug use practices in shooting galleries.
Previous research studies and anecdotal evidence portray shooting galleries as locales that place injection drug users at great risk for HIV infection, drug use and violence. Collectively, these studies highlight the need to intervene with injectors who frequent shooting galleries. However, few researchers have studied an often-forgotten risk group -- women injecting drug users who frequent shooting galleries -- and compared their risk behaviors to their male counterparts. To address this gap in the research literature and to evaluate the functionality of the shooting gallery as a setting for HIV prevention, we collected data on risk practices from 201 injectors (101 men and 100 women) who were recruited from eight shooting galleries in Miami, Florida. Results indicate that, compared with men, women injectors engaged in a similar variety and frequency of injection risk behaviors and had more shooting companions. While only minor gender differences were apparent, relatively few injectors -- male or female -- adhered to current recommendations for needle hygiene practices. Furthermore, contrary to common images of shooting galleries, use of other drugs was infrequently reported, episodes of violence or victimization were uncommon, and sexual contact almost never occurred. Operators of shooting galleries, both men and women, indicated their willingness to participate in HIV prevention efforts. Implications of these findings for HIV intervention indicate that (1) there is a great need to intervene with both men and women IDUs who frequent shooting galleries and that (2) shooting galleries can be an optimal setting for HIV prevention.
(united states, cities, aids, narcotics, sex differentials).
English - pp. 101-117.
L. R. Metsch, C. B. McCoy, J. M. Shultz, J. B. Page, E. Philippe and C. McKay, Comprehensive Drug Research Center, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Miami School of Medicine, Miami, Florida, U.S.A.
***
SCHOENEBERGER, Marlies; LOGAN, T. K.; LEUKEFELD, Carl.
Gender roles, HIV risk behaviors, and perceptions of using female condoms among college students.
The purpose of this study was to examine relationships between gender roles and HIV risk behavior, and perceptions and acceptance of the female condom among college students (n = 410). It was hypothesized that high hyperfeminine females and high hypermasculine males -- those adhering to traditional gender roles -- would engage in more HIV risk behaviors, including alcohol and drug use and various sexual practices, than those with lower hyperfemininity and hypermasculinity. It was also hypothesized that higher hyperfeminine females as well as higher hypermasculine males would perceive the female condom more negatively and would be less likely to view the female condom as a viable form of protection in the future. It was also hypothesized that high hyperfeminine females and high hypermasculine males would not accept the female condom as an alternative form of protection. Implications for prevention interventions are discussed.
(united states, aids, sexual behaviour, sex roles, adolescents, female contraceptive agents, condom, social psychology).
English - pp. 119-136.
M. Schoeneberger, T. K. Logan and C. Leukefeld, Center on Drug and Alcohol Research, University of Kentucky, Lexington, U.S.A.
***
AVERSA, Sherril L.; McCOY, H. Virginia; CRANDALL, Lee A.
Crack users' intentions to use condoms with different partner types.
Purpose. Evidence suggests that farmworkers are practicing high risk behavior, particularly crack cocaine use and unprotected sex, that consequently places them at an increased risk for HIV transmission. This study examined the intention to use condoms with four different sexual partner types (loved partner, casual partner, paying partner, and new partner) among a sample of farm workers who were also crack users. Methods. Personal interviews (n = 205) were conducted with male and female farm workers who were crack users (confirmed by urine test). Participants were recruited from a Florida homebase community for migrant farmworkers. The questionnaire assessed sexual activity (including number of partners and partner type), drug use and attitudes and beliefs about condoms. Results. Hispanic males reported a significantly lower likelihood of condom use for all partner types. For commercial partners, intention to use condoms was reduced dramatically for Hispanics but was markedly higher among steadily employed subjects. Finally, women were half as likely as men to report that they intended to use a condom with a loved partner. Conclusions. This study indicates that ethnicity and the nature of sexual relationships both play important roles in determining whether subjects report that they intend to use condoms, even in a population known for the presence of multiple partners and a widely perceived epidemic of AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases.
(united states, state, agricultural workers, narcotics, condom, sexual behaviour, aids, sex differentials).
English - pp. 137-153.
S. L. Aversa, University of Miami School of Medicine, U.S.A.; H. V. McCoy, Florida International University, U.S.A.; L. A. Crandall, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, U.S.A.
***
McCOY, H. Virginia; WEATHERBY, Norman; YU, Zhinuan.
The effect of migration patterns on exposure to HIV prevention in a migrant community.
This study examined the effects of migratory stream patterns on the amount of exposure to HIV prevention. It was hypothesized that fewer number of moves, a homebase in Collier County, Florida, greater number of years lived in Collier County, and having field-related jobs increase the potential for exposure to HIV prevention. Rural drug users and their sex partners were recruited from migrant camps in Collier County. Each camp was randomly assigned to either a Standard group or an Enhanced group. Descriptive analyses and multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine the effects of migration patterns on exposure (measured by the total number of contacts subjects had with study personnel) while controlling for demographic characteristics. A separate model was analyzed for the Standard group and the Enhanced group. The analysis revealed that being female, having lived in Collier County for a longer period of time, having a field-related job, and moving fewer times during the previous three years were significantly related to greater exposure to the HIV prevention intervention. The current study identifies a subgroup of migrants who are at high risk for deprivation of HIV-related information. Intervention efforts need to be targeted toward migrants who are male, have lived in Collier County for a short period of time, move frequently during agricultural seasons, or who are unemployed, prostitutes, or have other non-field-related jobs.
(united states, state, aids, preventive medicine, migrants).
English - pp. 155-168.
H. V. McCoy, N. Weatherby and Z. Yu, University of Miami School of Medicine, U.S.A.
***
SURRATT, Hilary L.; INCIARDI, James A.
Introducing the female condom to drug users in Brazil.
Brazil is currently the number two country in the world for reported cases of AIDS, and the rate of heterosexually acquired cases is on the rise. Moreover, because of the changing focus of the epidemic, the ratio of male to female cases dropped from 28 : 1 in 1984 to 2.7 : 1 in 1997. While women's risk of infection continues to grow, there is evidence to suggest that traditional approaches to HIV risk reduction have not effectively addressed women's special needs. Within such a setting this study sought to introduce drug-involved women to the female condom - a female-controlled method of protection from HIV. As part of a larger HIV/AIDS intervention study targeting low-income, cocaine users, the primary aim of this initiative was to assess the level of acceptability of this new device among women at high-risk for HIV infection in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In conjunction with individual pre-test HIV prevention counseling, clients participated in a detailed education/demonstration session with the female condom. Women were asked to try the female condom with their partners and to report their experiences at two points of contact. Outcome data indicate that a sizable proportion (71.1%) of the sexually active women used the female condom during vaginal sex on one or more occasions. In addition, many women continued to use the female condom as a method of risk reduction over the three-month follow-up period. These data suggest that the female condom can have an important role in HIV prevention efforts in Brazil.
(brazil, cities, narcotics, condom, female contraceptive agents, method acceptability, contraceptive training).
English - pp. 169-181.
H. L. Surratt and J. A. Inciardi, University of Miami School of Medicine, U.S.A.
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RIVERS, James E.; ANWYL, Robert S.; WEATHERBY, Norman; PATTNAIK, Suchitra.
Accessibility of health and human services for the HIV-infected.
Most research on services for the HIV/AIDS population has focused on primary medical care or on service brokering by advocacy groups. Little research data exist on the extent to which services of programs that do not specialize in HIV/AIDS clients are available to these individuals who often have multiple and multi-dimensional problems. The reported research examines selected data from a sample of 236 medical, behavioral health and social service programs in Miami-Dade County, Florida. A constructed measure of 'involvement' in services for HIV/AIDS clients, pertinent provider program and client characteristics are examined in the context of geo-distributed data on reported AIDS cases and census data. In logistic regression analyses, two aspects of race/ethnicity -- the population in the zip code area served by the program, and the clients or patients seen in the program -- were significant in predicting program under-response, defined as level of response relative to cumulative reported AIDS cases from the program's zip code area. The analysis is briefly discussed regarding its relevance and methodological generalizability for HIV/AIDS and related public health policy and applied purposes.
(united states, regions, aids, programme evaluation, health services, social work).
English - pp. 183-199.
J. E. Rivers, R. S. Anwil, N. Weatherby and S. Pattnaik, University of Miami School of Medicine and Health Services Research Center, Miami, FL, U.S.A.
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POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, June 1999, Vol. 18, N? 3
BALAKRISHNAN, T. R.; HOU, Feng.
Socioeconomic integration and spatial residential patterns of immigrant groups in Canada.
It is often assumed that the level of residential segregation of ethnic and racial groups can be used as a measure of their socioeconomic integration into a society. This paper using Canadian census data for the period 1981-1991 questions this assumption and goes to show that the trends in residential segregation need not parallel the trends in socioeconomic integration. Socio-economic integration is measured by indices of dissimilarity in the occupational composition and residential segregation by indices of dissimilarity in the population distribution. The study shows that while residential segregation of ethnic groups has remained fairly constant during the decade, occupational segregation has declined significantly. It concludes that while residential segregation may persist due to voluntary or involuntary causes, minority groups have been occupationally mobile. Unlike the case of Blacks in the United States, the study concludes that public policy concerns that spatial segregation of an ethnic group will result in relative deprivation in terms of socioeconomic integration may not always be valid in Canada.
(Canada, residence, ethnic minorities, segregation, integration, socio-economic differentials).
English - pp. 201-217.
T. R. Balakrishnan and F. Hou, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, N6A 5C2, Canada.
bala@julian.uwo.ca.
***
MILLER, Cynthia; GARFINKEL, Irwin.
The determinants of paternity establishment and child support award rates among unmarried women.
This paper examines the relationships between several child support policies, paternity establishment, and child support award rates among never-married women. We use several state policies and practices in place throughout the 1980s to examine their effectiveness at increasing paternity establishment rates and at increasing the proportion of unmarried women who have child support awards. We also examine the direct relationship between paternity establishment rates and child support award rates. We estimate these relationships using a variety of specifications, using cross-state variation in child support enforcement to identify the effects of policies. To date, child support remains largely the province of state family law, and, although policies have changed dramatically in response to two decades of federal mandates, state laws and practices still vary.
(United States, unmarried mothers, alimony, child recognition, social policy, evaluation).
English - pp. 237-260.
C. Miller, MDRC, 16 East Street, New York 10016-4326, U.S.A.; I. Garfinkel, Columbia University, New York, U.S.A.
***
Age structure and economic policy: The case of saving and growth.
The age structure of the population affects aggregate saving, which affects growth through investment. Growth in turn is influenced by other age structure effects and feeds back into aggregate saving by well known life cycle mechanisms. Some of these feedbacks are generally ignored in empirical work. Especially the age structure effect on macroeconomic variables is a commonly overlooked, yet easily accessible factor useful for prediction, policy evaluation and design. The connection between age structure, savings and growth in the OECD from 1950 to 1990 illustrates how policy analysis that ignores the macroeconomic effects and feedbacks from age structure changes is liable to lead to faulty and potentially costly conclusions about policy issues.
(oecd countries, economic demography, age distribution, savings, economic growth).
English - pp. 261-277.
T. Lindh, Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Box 513, S-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden.
thomas.lindh@nek.uu.se.
***
RALEY, R. Kelly; RINDFUSS, Ronald R.
The effect of respondent's kinship position on reported levels of integrational contact: USA and Japan.
Intergenerational relationships are a topic of general concern to social scientists because of the importance of the family for individual's well-being, especially in times of crisis. Hence, a considerable amount of research on relationships between parents and their adult children has been published in a broad array of social science journals. Most of this research examines intergenerational relationships from the perspective of only one generation and implicitly assumes that we would get the same results if we were to examine the relationships from the point of view of other family members. In societies where there are strong norms regarding kin contact, this assumption is likely to be invalid. This research examines reported levels of face-to-face contact among kin in the USA and Japan, and tests whether these reports are systematically different for respondents in some kinship positions than in others. The results show that norms favoring patrilineal contact in Japan can produce reporting bias. In Japan, married daughters tend to underreport levels of contact with their parents. In the USA, children-in-law report lower levels of visiting.
(United States, japan, data collection, data evaluation, methodology, family relationships).
English - pp. 279-298.
R. K. Raley, Department of Sociology, 366 Burdine, University of Texas, Austin TX 78712-1088, U.S.A.; R. R. Rindfuss, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, U.S.A.
kraley@prc.utexas.edu.
***
POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, August 1999, Vol. 18, N? 4
TAYMAN, Jeff; SWANSON, David A.
On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecast accuracy.
The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is the summary measure most often used for evaluating the accuracy of population forecasts. While MAPE has many desirable criteria, we argue from both normative and relative standpoints that the widespread practice of exclusively using it for evaluating population forecasts should be changed. Normatively, we argue that MAPE does not meet the criterion of validity because as a summary measure it overstates the error found in a population forecast. We base this argument on logical grounds and support it empirically, using a sample of population forecasts for counties. From a relative standpoint, we examine two alternatives to MAPE, both sharing with it, the important conceptual feature of using most of the information about error. These alternatives are symmetrical MAPE (SMAPE) and a class of measures known as M-estimators. The empirical evaluation suggests M-estimators do not overstate forecast error as much as either MAPE or SMAPE and are, therefore, more valid measures of accuracy. We consequently recommend incorporating M-estimators into the evaluation toolkit. Because M-estimators do not meet the desired criterion of interpretative ease as well as MAPE, we also suggest another approach that focuses on nonlinear transformations of the error distribution.
(methodology, population forecasts, evaluation).
English - pp. 299-322.
J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B Street, San Diego, CA 92101-4231, U.S.A.; D. A. Swanson, Helsinki School of Economics and Business Administration, International Program, Mikkeli, Finland.
jta@sandag.cog.ca.us.
***
Fertility decline in a US population favoring large families: A hazard-model analysis of the effect of sib death on Amish fertility.
This paper uses proportional hazards techniques and population data from a directory of the Old Order Amish of the Lancaster, PA settlement. It examines the effect of death of the immediately prior sibling on the risk of childbearing for up to 11 children. Prior research typically has pooled data for maternal cohorts. In contrast, separate models are estimated for each maternal cohort. The results are based on all reported first marriages of Amish women born between 1884-1973 (N = 4066). Hazard models run separately for children of each birth order reveal that net of maternal age and length of the prior birth interval (and other statistical and design controls), the death of the prior sib significantly increases the risk of a subsequent birth for the lower birth orders. Separate models by maternal cohort show that sib death increases the risk primarily for later cohorts. The pattern of effects from child mortality and other variables suggests changes in fertility behavior among the Amish, who have strong, traditional norms opposing contraception and favoring large families.
(United States, religious minorities, fertility determinants, fertility decline, child mortality).
English - pp. 323-338.
L. E. Dorsten, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, State University of New York, W363 Thompson Hall, Fredonia, NY 14063, U.S.A.
dorsten@ait.fredonia.edu.
***
MORGAN, S. Philip; BOTEV, Nikolai; CHEN, Renbao; HUANG, Jianping.
White and nonwhite trends in first birth timing: Comparisons using vital registration and current population surveys.
The magnitude of racial differences in first birth timing vary greatly depending upon the data sources from which they are estimated. Vital registration data (Heuser 1976; with updates from the National Center for Health Statistics 1974-1990) show that in recent years nonwhites have higher risks of a first birth at virtually all ages compared to whites. As a result very large and historically novel differentials in childlessness are forecast using these data (see Rindfuss et al. 1988; Chen & Morgan 1991; Morgan & Chen 1992). However, retrospective fertility history data collected from the 1980, 1985 and 1990 Current Population Surveys (CPS) suggest much smaller racial differences in completed childlessness and isolate racial differences in probabilities of first births at young ages. Differences also exist between these two series for whites prior to the mid-1960s but not afterwards. Reasons for these differing estimates are suggested and examined. We conclude that a substantial portion of the differences result from an accumulation of biases in the vital registration estimates that affect primarily estimates of first birth timing. Thus, the CPS data provide a more firm basis for racial comparisons of first birth timing.
(United States, first birth interval, races, civil registration, demographic surveys, bias, comparative analysis, methodology).
English - pp. 339-356.
S. P. Morgan, Department of Sociology, Duke University, Box 90088, Durham, NC 27708-0088, U.S.A.; N. Botev, UN Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Switzerland; R. Chen, National University of Singapore, Singapore; J. Huang, University of Pennsylvania, PA, U.S.A.
pmorgan@soc.duke.edu.
***
SHULTZ, James M.; GREER, Pedro Jose; LALOTA, Marlene; GARCIA, Luis Miguel; VALVERDE, Eduardo; COLLAZO, Rosendo; WATERS, Melinda; McCOY, Clyde B.
HIV seroprevalence and risk behaviors among clients attending a clinic for the homeless in Miami/Dade County, Florida, 1990-1996.
In the early 1990s, HIV seroprevalence was highest at the Miami homeless clinic among 16 homeless sites participating in a nationwide sentinel survey. To examine dynamic seroprevalence patterns in Miami's homeless clients in relation to demographics and risk behaviors over six years, we analyzed data from an unlinked (blinded) serosurvey of clients attending the principal primary care clinic serving Miami's homeless. Data were from 3,797 medical encounters with homeless persons who, on their initial clinic visit within an annual survey period, received routine serologic testing and a risk behavior survey. Overall HIV seroprevalence was 15.9% and infection rates for men (16.4%) and women (14.5%) did not differ. Seroprevalence for blacks (19.9%) was significantly higher than for Hispanics (9.1%) or whites (8.3%) (p < 0.0001). Seroprevalence was 12.6% (35 times the national rate) for clients reporting heterosexual contact as their only risk. Significant increases in seroprevalence, above this heterosexual-contact-only 'baseline', were found for clients disclosing high-risk behaviors: male-to-male sex, drug injection, receiving or giving money/drugs for sex, and sexual contact with a drug injector or HIV-infected partner (p < 0.0001). Seroprevalence declined over six years from 23.2 to 7.2% (p < 0.0001). Significant downward trends were observed for men and women, blacks and Hispanics, men who have sex with men, and clients reporting heterosexual contact. The proportion of clients reporting high-risk behaviors decreased sharply (p < 0.0001). Elevated HIV seroprevalence in Miami's homeless clients was strongly associated with high-risk behaviors. Expansion of HIV prevention and HIV/drug treatment services for homeless persons is strongly recommended.
(United States, administrative districts, aids, poverty, sexual behaviour, trends).
English - pp. 357-372.
J. M. Shultz, Comprehensive Drug Research Center, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Miami School of Medicine, P.O. Box 016069 (D-93), Miami, FL 33101, U.S.A.
jshultzl@mednet.med.miami.edu.
***
PHUA, Voon Chin; KAUFMAN, Gayle.
Using the census to profile same-sex cohabitation: A research note.
Most studies on cohabitation have focused on opposite-sex partners. This study seeks to explore the use of census data in examining same-sex cohabitation and to examine same-sex cohabitation in comparative terms. We use the 1990 US census 5% sample from the New York metropolitan area to focus on unmarried partners. The descriptive socioeconomic profile suggests that same-sex cohabiting householders have high income and educational levels as well as a high percentage of home ownership and a more equitable share of the household income relative to other householders. However, there are drawbacks to using the census. First, the census data only allow the examination of cohabitors related to the householder. Second, the interpretation of whom unmarried partners are may vary among persons. Third, same-sex cohabitors are not
synonymous with gay and lesbian couples.
(United States, census data, cohabitation, household composition, sex, methodology).
English - pp. 373-386.
V. C. Phua, Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center, New York, NY, U.S.A.; G. Kaufman, Department of Sociology, Davidson College, Davidson, NC 28036-1719, U.S.A.
gaKaufman@davidson.edu.
***
POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, October 1999, Vol. 18, N? 5
TAYMAN, Jeff; SWANSON, David A.; BARR, Charles F.
In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts.
We examine nonlinear transformations of the forecast error distribution in hopes of finding a summary error measure that is not prone to an upward bias and uses most of the information about that error. MAPE, the current standard for measuring error, often overstates the error represented by most of the values because the distribution underlying the MAPE is right skewed and truncated at zero. Using a modification to the Box-Cox family of nonlinear transformations, we transform these skewed forecast error distributions into symmetrical distributions for a wide range of size and growth rate conditions. We verify this symmetry using graphical devices and statistical tests; examine the transformed errors to determine if re-expression to the scale of the untransformed errors is necessary; and develop and implement a procedure for the re-expression. The MAPE-R developed by our process is lower than the MAPE based on the untransformed errors and is more consistent with a robust estimator of location.
(METHODOLOGY, population forecasts, errors, measurement).
English - pp. 387-409.
J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B Street, San Diego, CA 92101, U.S.A.
jta@sandag.cog.ca.us.
***
CLARK, Robert L.; YORK, E. Anne; ANKER, Richard.
Economic development and labor force participation of older persons.
The effect of economic development on labor force participation rates of older men and women is examined using national data for 134 countries. The analysis provides new insights into the evolution of retirement patterns with rising personal income, slowing population growth, the aging of the population, and shifts in the composition of employment. The analysis indicates a negative relationship between per capita income and labor force participation rates. This relationship is stronger for older men than for older women and is most apparent among middle income countries. An older population is associated with lower participation rates for older men and higher widow rates produce higher participation rates among older women. Industrial changes such as a decline in the proportion of the labor force employed in agriculture lower the proportion of older persons in the labor force. Finally, national social security policies are shown to impact the proportion of older persons that remains in the labor force.
(economic development, older workers, labour force participation, age at retirement, per capita income, sex differentials, demographic ageing).
English - pp. 411-432.
R. L. Clark, College of Management, North Carolina State University, Box 7229, Raleigh, NC 27695, U.S.A., E. A. York, Department of Business and Economics, Meridith College, U.S.A., R. Anker, Employment Department, International Labour Office, Geneva, Switzerland.
robert_clark@ncsu.edu.
***
LAMB, Vicki L.; MYERS, George C.
A comparative study of successful aging in three Asian countries.
The purpose of this research is to examine successful aging in three Asian countries, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand, using data from the WHO regional studies of Health and Social Aspects of Aging. Successful aging is defined as having no ADL difficulties, and at most, one Nagi difficulty. For the most part, the results are similar to those using more developed populations in that gender, age, no morbid conditions, positive attitude toward one's own aging and the ability to manage money are all correlated with successful aging. An interesting finding is that for the least developed country, Indonesia, being an unskilled worker is significantly associated with increased odds for successful aging. The final section of the paper discusses the theoretical implications regarding a disability transition for elderly populations as countries develop. We also focus on the current political and economic situations in the countries under study, and consider the possible impacts on elderly health.
(indonesia, sri lanka, thailand, ageing, individual welfare, aged, health conditions).
English - pp. 433-449.
V. L. Lamb and G. C. Myers, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0408, U.S.A.
vlamb@cds.duke.edu.
***
COONEY, Rosemary S.; SHI, Jing.
Household extension of the elderly in China, 1987
Using data from a 1987 elderly survey, this study examines demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as expressed preferences for the patrilineal extended family as factors affecting coresidence among Chinese elderly. Consistent with expectations, three quarters of the elderly live with their children and the overwhelming majority of extended households are with a married son and grandchildren. This study contributes to the literature on Asian developing nations by illustrating the role of a government supported pension system in explaining prior perplexing results for urbanization, by documenting the role of preferences for the patrilineal extended family and by exploring earlier suggestions that factors vary by marital status. The greater vulnerability of widowed elderly is shown not only by higher rates of coresidence, but also by interactive effects with economic resources, age and number of sons.
(China, aged, household composition, household size, extended family, patrilineal descent).
English - pp. 451-471.
R. Cooney, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Fordham University, 441 E. Fordham Road, Bronx, NY 10458, U.S.A.; J. Shi, Cendant Corporation, New York, U.S.A.
***
HABERFELD, Yitchak; MENARIA, R. K.; SAHOO, B. B.; VYAS, R. N.
Seasonal migration of rural labor in India.
The impact of seasonal migration has been overlooked by students of migration. A unique data set collected in Dungarpur -- one of the less developed districts of India -- allows us to closely examine both the determinants and impact of seasonal migration. Detailed information was gathered from all members of 624 households, thus enabling analyses at both individual and household levels. The findings indicate that seasonal migration among rural laborers is wide-spread. Rural households in India use migrant labor offered by their members to improve their well-being by both reducing the impacts of inferior conditions and by raising household's income levels. Migrant labor is a compensating mechanism used by households to reduce their disadvantageous position. Migrant households are characterized by lower education levels, lower levels of income from agriculture, and by an inferior geographical location. However, those households sending migrant labor are found to have higher income levels than those not sending migrant labor. Income from migrant labor accounts for almost 60% of total annual income of households sending at least one migrant laborer. Such findings are in accordance with explanations derived from the 'new economics of migration'. We can thus learn that migration-related decisions should not be evaluated only on the basis of utility maximization of individual migrants, but also on the basis of risk reducing by households.
(india, labour migration, seasonal migration, migration determinants, rural polulation, economic demography, household income).
English - pp. 473-489.
Y. Haberfeld, Department of Labor Studies, Social Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 69978, Israel; R. K. Menaria, Society for Development Research and Action, Udaipur, India; B. B. Sahoo, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India; R. N. Vyas, M. L. Sukhadia University, Udaipur, India.
yhaber@spirit.tau.ac.il.
***
Unveiling the demographic 'action' in class-action lawsuits: Two instructional cases
Population turnover, cohort survival, and intercohort transmission of effects are concepts widely applicable beyond the customary domains of demographic analysis. One such application involves a cohort of victims referenced in time and place by a common harm for which legal redress is sought through a class-action lawsuit. Two instructional case studies illustrate applications of demographic reasoning and data to certain generic questions such litigation may pose: How many claimants will remain by some future date? How prevalent will they then be in the population? How feasible will it be to redress the harm years later? These cases illustrate the use of familiar demographic concepts and simple demographic reasoning to draw legally relevant conclusions from available data. Specific instructional applications include: accounting for demographic factors that deplete the original class over time and dilute its surviving members among residents at the referenced place; integrating the use of administrative record, census, and vital statistics data; and devising approximate estimates of turnover within local populations. Training is broadly suited to assignments aimed at applying common-sense demographic reasoning to devise nonstandard solutions to measurement problems.
(applied demography, cohort analysis, justice, generation effect).
English - pp. 491-505.
P. A. Morrison, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407, U.S.A.
morrison@rand.org.
***
POSTON, Dudley L. Jr.; BOUVIER, Leon F.; DAN, Hong.
The impacts of apportionment method, and legal and illegal immigration, on Congressional apportionment in the year 2000.
This paper first discusses two methods for apportioning the US House of Representatives, Equal Proportions and Major Fractions. The method of Equal Proportions will be used in the 2000 apportionment, but it is biased in favor of smaller states. The method of Major Fractions is a mathematically unbiased method, but will not be used in 2000. However, we show that apportionments for 2000 would not differ much according to these two methods. We also consider different definitions of the apportionment population, mainly based on including or excluding legal and illegal immigrants from the apportionment process. We show that the apportionment results for 2000 will not differ if illegal immigrants who entered the USA in the 1990s are kept in, or removed from, the apportionment population. But the apportionment results will differ in a major way if all persons immigrating to the USA in the 1990s are kept in, or removed.
(united states, applied demography, politics, immigrants, illegal immigrants, democracy).
English - pp. 507-524.
D. L. Poston, Jr. and H. Dan, College of Liberal Arts, Department of Sociology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-4351, U.S.A.; L. F. Bouvier, Tulane University.
dudley@tamvm1.tamu.edu.
***
POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, December 1999, Vol. 18, N? 6
FORDYCE, E. J.; SINGH, T. P.; VAZQUEZ, F. M.; McFARLAND, J.: THOMAS, P.; FORLENZA, S.; CHIASSON, M.A.
Evolution of an urban epidemic: The first 100,000 AIDS cases in New York City.
Between 1981 and August 1997, 100,000 AIDS cases were reported in New York City (NYC): 77,067 men, 20,818 women, 307 teenagers, and 1,808 children. This report examines AIDS trends in NYC as the epidemic evolved from a predominantly white male epidemic among men with same sex contact (MSM) mostly from a single borough to a geographically diffuse epidemic that includes injecting drug users (IDU), persons of color, and women infected heterosexually. Case data were collected by active surveillance methods augmented by electronic laboratory based reporting. Mortality data were obtained from NYC Vital Statistics. 1990 Census data were used to derive incidence rates and prevalence by neighborhood income. Rates per 100,000 adults by neighborhood ranged from 260 to 5,500. Total AIDS incidence peaked in 1993 and has subsequently declined. Among men there was a shift from MSM to IDU as the predominant risk group, and increasing incidence among men reporting heterosexual contact. IDU was the leading risk factor among women, and women increased from 8 to 30 percent of all cases between 1982 and 1997. Unlike incidence, AIDS prevalence is rising among socially and economically marginalized populations, and will remain a major public health challenge well into the next century.
(united states, megalopolis, aids, mortality trends, epidemiology, public health, disease incidence, disease prevalence).
English - pp. 523-544.
E. J. Fordyce, T. P. Singh, F. M. Vazquez, J. McFarland, P. Thomas and S. Forlenza, Office of AIDS Surveillance, and M. A. Chiasson, Bureau of Disease Intervention Research, New York City Department of Health, New York, U.S.A.
112017.1057@compuserve.com.
***
HOTCHKISS, D. R.; MAGNANI, R. J.; LAKSSIR, A.; BROWN, L. F.; FLORENCE, C. S.
Family planning program effects on contraceptive use in Morocco, 1992-1995.
This study illustrates the use of panel data and a fixed-effects estimator to investigate the impact of family planning program inputs on contraceptive utilization in Morocco during the 1992-1995 period. By controlling the potential bias resulting from common unobserved determinants of program resource allocation decisions and program outcomes, the methodology helps overcome an important constraint to the use of non-experimental study designs in undertaking meaningful impact assessments. Data from a panel of women interviewed in both the 1992 and 1995 Morocco Demographic and Health Surveys were used in the study, along with 'program' data from Service Availability Modules undertaken in conjunction with each survey round. The results indicate that changes in the family planning supply environment, in particular increased presence of nurses trained in family planning and the level of infrastructure at public clinics, played a significant role in the increased use of modern contraceptives during the study period.
(morocco, family planning programmes, programme evaluation, contraceptive usage, methodology).
English - pp. 545-561.
D. R. Hotchkiss, R. J. Magnani, L. F. Brown and C. S. Florence, Tulane University, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Department of International Health and Development, 1440 Canal Street, New Orleans, LA 70112, U.S.A.; A. Lakssir, Ministry of Public Health, Morocco.
david.hotchkiss@tulane.edu.
***
SUNIL, T. S.; PILLAI, V. K.; PANDEY, A.
Do incentives matter? - Evaluation of a family planning program in India.
Indian Family Planning programs in the past have introduced a number of approaches such as providing monetary benefits, and motivational programs to improve contraceptive use among rural illiterate women. Under the Ammanpettai family welfare program, the Melatur PHC administered three program types involving a combination of monetary and motivational approaches to improve contraceptive use in three treatment areas. The program was introduced during January 1989 and was simultaneously discontinued after a period of two years. The present evaluation was conducted in 1994. Data from a random sample of 933 non-sterilized women at the time of social survey using a questionnaire approach is used in this study. The implementation of incentive programs in a socio-economically homogenous population has resulted in an increase in the likelihood of current contraceptive use. The results of this study suggest that motivational programs are more likely to improve long term use of temporary family planning methods than cash incentive programs. One implication of our finding is that motivational programs should provide peer based family planning education and training in community work to contact persons who make door to door visits to promote family planning programs.
(india, family planning programmes, programme evaluation, comparative analysis, incentives).
English - pp. 563-577.
T. S. Sunil, Department of Sociology, University of North Texas, P.O. Box 311157, Denton, TX 76203-1157, U.S.A.; V. K. Pillai, School of Social Work, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, Texas, U.S.A.; A. Pandey, International Institute for Population Sciences, Deonar, Mumbai, India.
sunils@scs.cmm.unt.edu.
***
BANKOLE, Akinrinola; EZEH, Alex Chika.
Unmet need for couples: An analytical framework and evaluation with DHS data.
While estimates of unmet need continue to be an important measure of the extent of demand for contraception and family planning programs success in developing countries, there are various reservations about the validity of these estimates. For instance, the traditional formulation of the measurement has relied solely on information from women while inferences from the findings are often drawn for couples. As more survey data have become available for both men and women in a number of countries, there is increasing evidence suggesting that husbands' preferences are indeed important determinants of the reproductive behavior of couples. This paper develops an analytical framework for measuring unmet need for couples. The approach: (1) takes a fresh look at the classification of pregnant and amenorrheic women, and (2) incorporates the contraceptive use and fertility preferences of husband and wife in estimating the level of unmet need in six sub-Saharan African countries. Our findings show that taking these factors into account results in a 50 to 66 percent reduction in the level of unmet need in these countries. The importance of husbands' variables in determining the level of unmet need is clearly evident when examined among fecund couples in which the wife is neither pregnant nor amenorrheic. The implications of these findings for family planning programs and research are discussed.
(africa south of sahara, needs, demand, contraception, family planning programmes, methodology, couple, married men).
English - pp. 579-605.
A. Bankole, The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 120 Wall Street, New York, N.Y. 10005, U.S.A.; A. C. Ezeh, African Population and Health Research Center, The Population Council, Nairobi, Kenya.
info@agi-usa.org.
***
TOUSSAINT, Danielle W.; HUMMER, Robert A.
Differential mortality risks from violent causes for foreign- and native-born residents of the USA.
This paper examines the differences in adult violent causes (homicide, suicide, vehicle accidents, and other accidents) for mortality risks between the American foreign- and native-born adult populations, while considering the length of time lived in the USA and the influences of other socio-demographic characteristics. Data came from the National Health Interview Survey-National Death Index linked file for the years 1989-1995. Cox proportional hazards models estimate the association between nativity, length of stay, and mortality risk for each violent cause. The results show that foreign-born persons differ in their risks of violent death vis-?-vis the native-born population by the amount of the time they have lived in the USA. In particular, recent immigrants (less than 15 years) display higher risks from homicide, lower risks from suicide, and lower risks from other accidents (not vehicle) than the native-born individuals. This pattern is different for longer-term immigrants (15 or more years) who have, for the most part, similar risks from other causes of violent death compared to native-born residents. The findings suggest that there are compositional differences between immigrants by length of stay and that the process of acculturation may include the amplification or diminution of risks of various causes of violent death.
(united states, differential mortality, violent deaths, place of birth, adult mortality, immigration, duration of residence).
English - pp. 607-620.
D. W. Toussaint and R. A. Hummer, Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin, TX 78712, U.S.A.
danielle@prc.utexas.edu.
***
POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, February 2000, Vol. 19, N? 1
LUSH, Louisiana; CLELAND, John; LEE, Kelley; WALT, Gill.
Politics and fertility: A new approach to population policy analysis.
This paper aims to explain why divergent population policies and programs arise in otherwise similar countries and to clarify how such policies relate to fertility decline. An analysis was undertaken of demographic and policy change over a 30 year period in four pairs of developing countries: Algeria and Tunisia; Bangladesh and Pakistan; the Philippines and Thailand; and Zambia and Zimbabwe. In some countries, popular demand for family planning facilitated changing policy. In others, independent factors, such as economic crisis or international pressure, pushed policy makers into action on population policy, often in the absence of popular demand. In these countries, governments which identified a coherent rationale, usually economic, for reducing population growth, tended to develop more successful policies. Strong and financially secure coalitions of policy elites were important in sharing the political risk associated with such policies. Analysis of these processes has lessons for policy makers and researchers interested in expediting implementation of new approaches to population and reproductive health.
(Developing countries, fertility decline, population policy, family planning policy, government policy, politics, comparative analysis).
English - pp. 1-28.
L. Lush, J. Cleland, K. Lee and G. Walt, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, U.K.
***
Spousal communication and contraceptive use among the Yoruba of Nigeria.
A noted feature of many less developed societies is that marital partners hardly discuss reproductive issues with the result that decisions on these issues are usually taken by men and their kinsmen. Because of lack of spousal communication, negotiation for individual reproductive preferences has been limited. Thus, the reproductive preferences of men who desire larger family sizes and oppose contraceptive use have usually been found to prevail. The need to encourage husband-wife communication about reproductive issues cannot be overemphasized. The present study examines the level of spousal communication and its impact on contraceptive use among Yoruba couples in southwest Nigeria. Data for the study are obtained from a survey on the Role of Men in Family Planning conducted in one of the states inhabited by the Yoruba of Nigeria -- Ondo. The sample for this study consists of 381 monogamously married couples. Multivariate analyses were used to determine the impact of background variables on dependent variables. The study shows that fairly high percentages of men and women perceive that decisions on reproductive issues are taken jointly by both partners. The significantly high proportion of women who perceive that they participate in decision making is particularly worth noting and is an indication that women's voices are heard in the study society. Although the impact decreases on controlling for other variables, spousal communication was found to affect contraceptive use: contraceptive use is higher among marital partners who discuss and take joint decisions on contraception. The study also reveals that family planning counseling has a significant impact on contraceptive use.
(Nigeria, ethnic groups, contraceptive usage, couple, interpersonal communication, decision making).
English - pp. 29-45.
B. J. Feyisetan, Policy Research Division, Population Council, New York, U.S.A.
***
Eloundou-Enyegue, Parfait M.; Stokes, C. Shannon; Cornwell, Gretchen T.
Are there crisis-led fertility declines? Evidence from central Cameroon.
Past demographic transitions have been observed with and without economic progress, but there is little empirical record of crisis-driven fertility transitions. In recent years, several authors have argued that conditions for such transitions are met in African countries under economic crisis and structural adjustment. Using retrospective family histories, this study examines fertility responses to crisis in Cameroon, a country with a particularly abrupt economic reversal. The thesis of a crisis-led decline is tested on the basis of five criteria including timing of the decline, statistical and substantive significance, rural-urban response differentials and social salience. Findings are consistent with a crisis-led effect.
(Cameroon, fertility decline, demographic transition, fertility determinants, economic recession).
English - pp. 47-72.
P. M. Eloundou-Enyegue, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California, U.S.A.; C. S. Stokes and G. T. Cornwell, Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
***
The dynamics of single mothers' living arrangements.
Using a four-way definition of living arrangements (independent, live with parents, cohabit, share with others) and data from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation, I find that single mothers have a 26% probability of switching living arrangements at least once during a 32-month period. Mothers living independently are the least likely to change arrangements, and those sharing housing with individuals other than a boyfriend or parents are the most likely to switch. Having lived for a longer period of time in any of the four arrangements decreases the probability of switching. Among those who change living arrangements, there appear to be some patterns of transition. Mothers living with their parents tend to move into either independent households or those that they share with individuals other than an unrelated man. If they leave, mothers who lived with their parents tend not to move back into their parents' household, at least within the time period examined. Women who share with others or cohabit tend to cycle between their current living arrangement and living independently. Among those who switch living arrangements, mothers who do not live independently tend to have transitions into independence or other arrangements which increase the probability they will choose independence in the future.
(Household composition, unmarried mothers, women?s status, women?s emancipation).
English - pp. 73-96.
R. A. London, Berkeley Planning Ass., Oakland, California, U.S.A.
***
POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, April 2000, Vol. 19, No. 2
Pol, Louis G.; Mueller, Keith J.; Adidam, Phani Tej.
Health insurance in the near elderly population.
A number of studies have documented the rising number of persons under age 65 who do not have health insurance. This paper focuses on the health insurance status of near elderly, those persons age 55 through 64. A comparison age group, persons age 45 through 54, is selected for benchmark purposes. Utilizing data from the 1996 Current Population Survey, logistic regression is used to generate insurance status prediction equations for both age groups. Household characteristics, income, education and employment are found to be significant predictors of health insurance status, but fewer-than-expected differences are found in comparing equations between the two age groups. Results are discussed in the context of recent proposals to extend Medicare coverage, the effect of Medicare policy changes on the number of near elderly persons without health insurance, and how prolonged periods of time without health insurance may lead to an increased burden on Medicare as newly eligible Medicare recipients seek services to address their pent-up demand for health care.
English - pp. 97-112.
L. G. Pol, K. J. Mueller and P. T. Adidam, University of Nebraska, 60th and Dodge, Omaha, NE 68182, U.S.A.
louis_pol@unomaha.edu.
united states, middle aged, social security, insurance, public health.
***
Contraceptive use at first intercourse among Jewish women in Israel, 1962-1988.
Using data from the 1987-1988 Study of Fertility and Family Formation, this study examines the family planning practices of Jewish Israeli women who first had intercourse between 1962 and 1988. The overwhelming majority of women reported using no contraception at first intercourse, and among those who did practice birth control approximately half relied on modern techniques. While the likelihood that Israeli women used contraception at first sex changed little between 1962 and 1988, there has been a marked shift towards the adoption of efficient methods of birth control. Moreover, factors which promote female empowerment, including education and military service, have been positively associated with contraceptive use at first intercourse. Among those women who practiced contraception at first intercourse, those from Africa and Asia have been especially likely to make use of inefficient methods such as withdrawal.
English - pp. 113-141.
E. I. Wilder, Department of Sociology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, U.S.A.
ewilder@ou.edu.
isarel, jews, women, contraceptive usage, premarital sex behaviour, coitus, family planning, contraceptive methods, education of women.
***
Thank God it's Friday: The weekly cycle of mortality in Israel.
The purpose of this study was to explore the weekly cycle of mortality among Jews in Israel. Drawing on previous research on the association between holy-days and the timing of death, we hypothesized that mortality of Jews declines on Sabbath (Saturday), and rises to a peak on Sundays. We analysed daily numbers of deaths of Jewish men and women aged 5 and above in Israel from 1983 to 1992, and found a clear and significant dip-peak pattern in the number of deaths around the Sabbath. This pattern was found for all causes of death, was stronger for men than for women, and was not found among young Jewish children, or among the non-Jewish population.
English - pp. 143-154.
J. Anson and O. Anson, Spitzer Department of Social Work, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, 84105 Beer Sheva, Israel.
anson@bgumail.bgu.ae.il.
israel, jews, mortality, seasonal fluctuations, death.
***
Neighborhood change within the Canadian ethnic mosaic, 1986-1991.
This paper examines the neighborhood patterns in three major Canadian metropolitan areas between 1986 and 1991. Data are obtained from 1986 and 1991 profile census files and two Special Tabulations of 1986 and 1991 Canadian census. The data indicate that the first pathway of neighborhood change is the diversification that takes place among charter-only neighborhoods with the introduction of a sizable European presence, followed by Asians and then blacks. The second pathway featuring racial uniformity primarily takes place in multiethnic neighborhoods containing one or more visible minority groups. Multivariate analysis suggests that the increase in racial and ethnic diversity in neighborhoods is related to the efforts of visible minorities, especially Asians, seeking out neighborhoods with Europeans.
English - pp. 155-177.
E. Fong and M. Gulia, Centre for Urban and Community Studies, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Av., Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8, Canada.
fong@chass.utoronto.ca.
Canada, metropolis, population distribution, races, ethnic groups, neighbourhoods.
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Nativity, duration of residence and the life course pattern of extended family living in the U.S.A.
Recent changes in US immigration policy and domestic welfare policies affecting immigrants have led to concerns that families will face greater pressure to provide for extended family members. Extended family households are important resources for new immigrants to the USA and an integral part of the adaptive strategy of immigrants. This paper examines the competing roles of duration of residence in the USA, aging and changes over time in explaining increases in extended family living between 1980 and 1990. The results from a pooled sample of 1980 and 1990 Census data indicate that recent arrivals are more likely to share households with extended kin but it is older immigrants who face an increased likelihood of such coresidence over time. Multinomial logistic regression analysis demonstrates that the life course pattern of coresidence remains when changes in socioeconomic status are controlled. The results suggest that policy changes limiting public funds available to new arrivals will have a larger impact on families sponsoring older family members.
English - pp. 179-198.
J. E. Glick, Department of Sociology, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 872101, Tempe, AZ 85287-2101, U.S.A.
jennifer.glick@asu.edu.
united states, extended family, household composition, immigrants, integration, duration of residence.
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POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW, June 2000, Vol. 19, No. 3
The importance of international demographic research for the United States.
International demographic research has provided many benefits for the U.S. This paper identifies five main reasons for these benefits. First, cross-national research provides unique policy insights that help the U.S. to develop more effective programs and policies to address pressing and persistent domestic challenges. Second, it helps the U.S. to understand and address problems and issues in many countries or regions of the world that are of particular relevance to the U.S. because of their strategic or commercial importance to us. Third, it helps the U.S. to address problems and issues that are global in nature and require international policy responses. Fourth, it helps the U.S. to provide humanitarian aid to poor countries more effectively and efficiently. Finally, it contributes to the advancement of science, which in turn stimulates and enriches research focusing on the U.S.
English - pp. 199-232.
N. Sastry, RAND, 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, U.S.A.
Narayan_Sastry@rand.org.
united states, demographic research, international cooperation, international relations.
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Caldwell, John C.; Orubuloye, I. O.; Caldwell, Pat.
Female genital mutilation: Conditions of decline.
Female genital mutilation (or female circumcision) has been experienced by over 100 million women in sub-Saharan Africa and the Nile valley. Efforts to suppress the practice were made in the earlier decades of the present century, especially by missionaries in Kenya in the 1920s and early 1930s. Successful indigenous opposition to this activity led to a cultural relativist attitude toward FGM being dominant among governments and international bodies for the next half century. This situation has changed over the last 20 years as the women's movement has led an attack on the practice, so that by the mid-1990s all relevant major international bodies and governments without exception had committed themselves to its suppression. Nevertheless, efforts to counter FGM have often been weak and there has been little evidence of their success. This paper draws on a continuing research program among the Yoruba people of southwest Nigeria to show not only that FGM has begun to decline but that this occurrence can be explained wholly by programs organized by the Ministry of Health and women's organizations. The focus of this paper is on the determinants of this change. These are shown to be: (1) a reduction in ceremonies associated with the practice, (2) its increasing medicalization, (3) indigenous secular campaigning based on the provision of information, and (4) a focus on individuals, especially women. There is little belief that the campaign is an assault on the culture, but rather a growing feeling, especially among those influenced by it, that it would be more appropriate once such a campaign has begun for it to be whole-hearted rather than lukewarm.
English - pp. 233-254.
J. C. Caldwell, P. Caldwell, Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia; I. O. Orubuloye, Sociology Department, The State University, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria.
jack.caldwell@nceph.anu.edu.au.
africa south of sahara, women?s status, female genitalia, female circumcision, government policy, cultural change.
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Women's autonomy, women's status and fertility-related behavior in Zimbabwe.
Women's household decision-making autonomy is a potentially important but less studied indicator of women's ability to control their fertility. Using a DHS sample of 3,701 married black African women from Zimbabwe, I look at women who have no say in major purchases, whether they should work outside the home, and the number of children. When men dominated all household decisions, women were less likely to approve of contraceptive use, discuss their desired number of children with their spouse, report ever use of a modern method of contraception, and to intend to use contraception in the future. However, women's decision-making autonomy was not associated with current modern contraceptive use. Women who had no decision-making autonomy had 0.26 more children than women who had some autonomy. These autonomy measures provide additional independent explanatory power of fertility-related behavior net of traditional measures of women's status such as education and labor force participation.
English - pp. 255-282.
M. J. Hindin, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997, U.S.A.
hindin@unc.edu.
zimbabwe, women?s status, fertility, reproductive behaviour, decision making, patriarchy, fertility determinants.
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Lauderdale, Diane S.; Kestenbaum, Bert.
Asian American ethnic identification by surname.
Few data sources include ethnicity-level classification for Asian Americans. However, it is often more informative to study the ethnic groups separately than to use an aggregate Asian American category, because of differences in immigration history, socioeconomic status, health, and culture. Many types of records that include surnames of persons offer the potential for inferential ethnic classification. This paper describes the development of surname lists for six major Asian American ethnic groups: Chinese, Japanese, Filipino, Korean, Asian Indian, and Vietnamese. The lists were based on Social Security Administration records that include country of birth. After they were compiled, the lists were evaluated using an independent file of census records. The surname lists have a variety of applications for researchers: identification of individuals to target for study participation; inference of ethnicity in data sources lacking ethnic detail; and characterization of the ethnic composition of a population.
English - pp. 283-300.
D. S. Lauderdale, Department of Health Studies, University of Chicago, 5841 S. Maryland Av., Chicago, IL 60637, U.S.A.
lauderdale@health.bsd.uchicago.edu.
united states, asia, ethnic groups, immigrants, data collection, surname.
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