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DEMOGRAPHISCHE INFORMATIONEN, 1997/1999
From falling birth rates to a shortage of children. Facts and theories on low fertility [Vom Geburtenschwund zum Kindermangel. Fakten, Thesen und Gegenthesen zur kinderarmen Gesellschaft].
In recent years the number of births in Austria has been constantly declining. Whereas at the be-ginning of the 1990s there were still around 95,000 births every year, by 1998 there were only 81,000. Between 1996 (88,800 births) and 1998 alone, the number of births in Austria fell by 9%. 1999 shows a further decline in the number of births of about 3%. What are the demographic causes of this development? Should politicians react to this trend? Is this problem really relevant to society and does it merit our attention? What are the problems of the low fertility-syndrome for a rich industrial country like Austria? Does this development not have advantages? From both a demographic and political point of view, clear and widely accepted answers to these questions are difficult to find. This article aims to present some of the reasons for this. At the same it com-pares and contrasts arguments for and against certain viewpoints.
(AUSTRIA, FERTILITY DECLINE, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, THEORY, SOCIAL PROBLEMS).
German - pp. 5-10.
J. Kytir, Institut für Demographie, Universität Wien, Wien, Austria; R. Münz, Institut für Demo-graphie, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Hintere Zollamtsstrasse 2 b, 1033 Wien, Austria.
rainer.muenz@sowi.hu-berlin.de.
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BUBER, Isabella; FÜRNKRANZ-PRSKAWETZ, Alexia.
My child - your child - our child. The influence of pre-union children on fertility in second unions in Austria [Mein Kind - dein Kind - unser Kind. Der Einfluss von vor-partnerschaftlichen Kindern auf das Fertilitäts-verhalten in zweiten Lebensgemein-schaften].
Increasing premarital childbearing and divorce rates in Austria are leading to a growing number of persons being at the risk of forming a stepfamily. Childbearing in higher order unions contrib-utes more and more to completed fertility. As the children concerned are often of higher-order parity for one or both partners, it is particularly interesting to analyse the influence on fertility of the pre-union children of both partners.
Based on the Austrian Family and Fertility Survey we analyse the effects of the number of pre-union children on the probability of a first shared child in second unions. It emerges that at least one child was born in half of all second unions. While 40.1% of these couples recorded at least one pre-union child of the woman joining the household when the couple moved together, only 5.3% recorded one or more pre-union children of the man joining the household. Parity specific analyses show that childless women whose partner brings at least one pre-union child into the household more often express the desire to have a shared child with their partner and very soon realise this desire. Where one pre-union child of the woman but none of the man lives with the couple, this does not increase the probability of their having a child together. On the other hand, if one or both partners bring two or more children into the second household, they decide less often to have a first child together. However, first union children not living in the common sec-ond union household do not influence the probability of a first child being born to the partners in the second union.
(AUSTRIA, PREMARITAL BIRTHS, DIVORCE, REMARRIAGE, FERTILITY DETERMI-NANTS, FAMILY SIZE).
German - pp. 11-19.
I. Buber and A. Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Dober-aner Strasse 114, 18057 Rostock, Germany.
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TAZI-PREVE, Irene M.; KYTIR, Josef.
Induced abortion in Austria. "Old" and "new" areas of conflict [Schwangerschaftsabbruch in Österreich. "Alte" Streitpunkte - "neue" Konfliktlinien].
Twenty-five years ago, in 1975, a new abortion law came into force, which decriminalises abor-tions occurring in the first trimester of pregnancy. Although the law is not contested by any of the political parties, it has, since its introduction, been the subject of repeated public discussion. One recent occasion of this has been the proposed approval of the "abortion pill" in Austria. The ongoing discussions are also marked both by "old" areas of conflict -- for example, the diverging estimates of the number of abortions in Austria -- and by "new" fields of conflict with regard to developments in gene technology and pre-natal diagnostics (eugenic indication); traditional posi-tions for and against abortion are gradually beginning to break down. The current article, more-over, presents a differentiated overview of public attitudes to abortion in the light of the data obtained for the Austrian Family and Fertility Survey. In the latter a majority of respondents in-dicated that they would accept abortion on medical grounds but would reject it as a form of fam-ily planning. Age and gender have little influence on this finding but religious attitude and regional background do.
(AUSTRIA, INDUCED ABORTION, ABORTION POLICY, PUBLIC OPINION, ATTI-TUDE).
German - pp. 20-29.
I. M. Tazi-Preve, Institut für Demographie, Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Hintere Zollamtsstraße 2b, A-1033 Wien, Austria; J. Kytir, Institut für Demographie, Universität Wien, Wien, Austria.
ifd@oeaw.ac.at.
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The desire for children and rational choice [Kinderwunsch und Rational Choice].
This article begins by outlining the theoretical and methodological background of the rational choice approach. In this outline the concept of rationality underpinning this approach is dis-cussed. Afterwards, two examples are used to show that the desire for children is a difficult mat-ter to which the rational choice approach cannot be applied without violating its basic philosophy.
The theory posited by Friedman et al. (1994) that parenthood is striven for in order to reduce uncertainty leads to a socio-structural explanation of the transition to parenthood which is almost deterministic. Here the dilemma is particularly clearly duplicated: by an additional assumption about the decision process the authors avoid the instrumental view of uncertainty-reduction by children since the latter represent an immanent value. In so doing, however, they fall into a de-terministic view which is at odds with the philosophy of the rational choice approach.
The consumption theory of the Chicago School assumes that people want children because of a certain "enjoyment of children". This assumption is doubtless plausible but contrary to the ra-tional choice approach since this disposition is an immanent value and cannot be integrated into any preference order. Thus the choice between children and other consumer goods only fits the rational choice approach if this choice is made in connection with a priority aim. This cannot, however, be argued in the case of the disposition term "enjoyment of children".
(METHODOLOGY, WANTED CHILD, THEORY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, CHOICE, CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR).
German - pp. 30-38.
D. Bichlbauer, Institut für Demographie, Institut für Politikwissenschaft, Universität Wien, Wien, Austria.
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HOLZER, Werner; LEBHART, Gustav; MÜNZ, Rainer.
Migration and political tensions in Austria [Migrationspolitische Spannungsfelder in Öster-reich].
In Austria the relations between the local population and foreigners are marked not only by so-cial contacts and mutual cultural enrichment but also by tensions and conflicts. There are regular media reports on opinion polls which confirm the Austrians' reservations towards and rejection of foreign residents and new-immigrants. In newspapers and newsmagazines fears of an immi-nent surfeit of foreigners ("Überfremdung") and corresponding recommendations are articulated. Xenophobic acts of violence attract the most attention, not least because they are a relatively new phenomenon in German-speaking countries. At the beginning of the 1990s the accommodation of asylum-seekers was burned down in Germany, as were the flats of foreigners and youth cen-tres for young migrants. Several people lost their lives. In Austria letter bombs were sent. Overt xenophobic violence, originating to a greater or lesser degree from the extreme right, easily de-flects attention, however, from the more subtle forms of the daily discrimination and exclusion of foreigners. It can, of course, also obscure the fact that in some sections of the population there is a tradition of giving help to refugees. Thus, at present, a conflicting picture is marked both by the desire for insulation and, in individual cases, by humanity.
The objective of an empirical survey conducted by the Institute of Demography was to reveal basic factors connected with the rejection of foreigners and to analyse the possible causes of xenophobia. It focuses on social and structural demographic factors which could be assumed to be relevant in determining attitudes and behavioural patterns towards foreigners and potential immigrants. Against this background, the study aims to ascertain the extent and possible causes of xenophobia and/or the distance shown towards foreigners in Austria.
(AUSTRIA, FOREIGNERS, IMMIGRANTS, CONFLICTS, PUBLIC OPINION, REFUGEES, DISCRIMINATION).
German - pp. 39-56.
W. Holzer, G. Lebhart and R. Münz, Institut für Demographie, Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Hintere Zollamtsstraße 2b, A-1033 Wien, Austria.
rainer.muenz@sowi.hu-berlin.de.
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DOBLHAMMER, Gabriele; KYTIR, Josef.
Compression or expansion of morbidity? Trends in healthy-life expectancy in the elderly Aus-trian population between 1978 and 1998 ["Kompression" oder "Expansion" der Morbidität? Trends in der Lebenserwartung älterer Menschen in guter Gesundheit 1978 bis 1998].
In the last few decades the life expectancy of elderly people has risen markedly. Against the background of the theories of a compression or expansion of morbidity, this article analyses the development of healthy-life expectancy for the Austrian population aged 60 and over. The em-pirical basis for this are four microcensus surveys for the years 1978, 1983, 1991 and 1998, in each of which the identical question was asked concerning self-perceived health ratings. The first part of the article deals in detail with the consequences of possible sampling and non-sampling errors. It emerges that while, on the whole, the microcensus data give a too-positive picture of the state of health of elderly people, time trends in the health ratings are unbiased and reflect real changes.
In the last 20 years (1978-1998), the proportion of elderly people describing their state of health as "bad" or "very bad" has fallen significantly. Together with the reduction in mortality rates, this has led to a significant growth in the number and proportion of the years spent in good health. Our findings thus in no way support theories which argue for an expansion of morbidity. On the contrary, elderly people in Austria have evidently experienced a compression of morbidity in both absolute and relative terms, although life expectancy does not seem to be approaching a maximum average life span. A continuation of this positive trend could compensate at least par-tially for the feared negative effects of demographic ageing on public and private health care costs.
(AUSTRIA, AGED, MORBIDITY, LIFE EXPECTANCY, TRENDS, HEALTH).
German - pp. 57-70.
G. Doblhammer, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, 18057 Rostock, Germany; J. Kytir, Institut für Demographie, Universität Wien, Wien, Aus-tria.
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FASSMANN, Heinz; MÜNZ, Rainer; SEIFERT, Wolfgang.
What has become of the guest-workers? Immigrant workers from Turkey and former Yugo-slavia in Germany and Austria [Was wurde aus den Gastarbeitern? Türken und (Ex-)Jugoslawen in Deutschland und Österreich].
This article compares the occasional positions of immigrant workers from Turkey and former Yugoslavia in Germany and Austria. Immigrant workers from Turkey and former Yugoslavia constitute the majority of foreign workers in both Germany and Austria, and these two countries have comparable socioeconomic and labour market structures. The analyses show that labour immigrants from Mediterranean countries are found much more often in subordinate positions in the labour market hierarchy in Austria than in Germany. This also applies when training and length of stay are taken into account.
Compared with those in Germany, Austria's labour market structures show a greater degree of segregation and less permeability. The far lower occupational and spatial mobility in Austria is as much an indicator of this as the larger public service sector, and the greater proportion of na-tionalised and state-controlled industries, which constitute a "protected" segment of the labour market and are very largely reserved for Austrian nationals. In addition, foreign workers are less often employed in large companies than is the case in Germany, and there is a smaller proportion of such firms, so that in-company career opportunities are closed to foreign workers to a far greater extent than in Germany, where the "protected" sector of the labour market is less clearly delineated. The public sector in Germany is smaller in relation to the total population, and the exposed sector of industry and the market-oriented services is larger.
(GERMANY, AUSTRIA, TURKEY, YUGOSLAVIA, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, LABOUR MARKET, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS).
German - pp. 71-79.
H. Fassmann, Geographischen Institut der Technischen Universität München, München, Ger-many; R. Münz, Institut für Demographie, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Hintere Zol-lamtsstrasse 2b, 1033 Wien, Austria; W. Seifert, Lehrstuhl Bevölkerungswissenschaft der Humboldt-Universität, Berlin, Germany.
rainer.muenz@sowi.hu-berlin.de.
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Employment prospects for university dropouts in Austria. An investigation based on 1981 and 1991 census data [Arbeitsmarktaussichten für Studienabbrecher. Eine Untersuchung anhand der Daten der Volkszählungen 1981 und 1991].
The starting-point for this study is the fact that in Austria only about 50% (in 1988 only 43%) of those enrolling as students actually complete their studies successfully with an academic degree. In the current analysis the 1981 and 1991 census data are used for a closer examination of the transition to the labour market of student dropouts -- i.e. those leaving university without formal qualifications.
The data used permit an estimate of the transition rates of those student dropouts matriculating from higher level schools of general education ("gymnasium"), since almost 90% of them enrol as students. The transition rates of student dropouts who enter university from higher level voca-tional schools cannot be shown from census data. Only about a half of graduates of higher voca-tional schools enrol as students since they have already obtained a vocational qualification. Those matriculating from a "gymnasium" comprise 70% of all new university students.
As is shown by an analysis that differentiates by occupation, economic category, occupational position and employer, "gymnasium" leavers are placed closer to academic groups than those with other educational backgrounds. Nevertheless, labour market conditions play a role in this, however temporarily. Thus, for example, at a time of an acute teacher shortage, even "gymna-sium" graduates without a university degree found work as teachers (probably student dropouts in specific subject areas), even though they usually lacked the formal qualifications for obtaining such posts.
(AUSTRIA, EDUCATIONAL DROPOUTS, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, OCCUPATIONS, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, LABOUR MARKET, ENTRY INTO THE LABOUR FORCE).
German - pp. 80-98.
F. Landler, Institut für Demographie, Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Hintere Zollamtsstraße 2b, A-1033 Wien, Austria.
ifd@oeaw.ac.at.
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KYTIR, Josef; LEBHART, Gustav; KAUFMANN, Albert; HANIKA, Alexander; ULRICH, Ralf.
Future population trends of Vienna and the Vienna urban region [Zukünftige Tendenzen der Bevölkerungsentwicklung Wiens und der Wiener Stadtregion].
Local population projections represent an important documentation and decision-making basis for the planning of infrastructure facilities in a city. Such population projections must consider both the demographic processes and the foreseeable settlement of new residential building areas within the city. For more than 200 local areas of Vienna and the Vienna urban region, we have drawn up a multiregional, multistate cohort-component population projection up to the year 2021 which takes these developments into account.
The most important findings are:
In future the population of the Vienna region will continue to grow, but the increase will be con-centrated in the suburbs surrounding the city.
Within Vienna, the population will decrease in most of the densely built-up districts but the outer districts will face an increase as a result of new housing construction.
While most of Vienna will be relatively little affected by demographic ageing in the coming dec-ades, in some districts of the city (the 11th, 21st and 22nd) the number of older people will grow just as strongly as in the western part of Austria.
In the coming years, the total number of foreign residents and their proportion of the whole population will decrease somewhat. The indications are, however, that the enormous local differ-ences in the proportion of foreigners within the city will persist according to our assump-tions.
(AUSTRIA, CAPITAL CITY, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, URBAN DEVELOPMENT).
German - pp. 99-107.
J. Kytir, Institut für Demographie, Universität Wien, Wien, Austria; G. Lebhart, Institut für De-mographie, Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, Hintere Zollamtsstraße 2b, A-1033 Wien, Austria; A. Kaufmann, A. Hanika and R. Ulrich, Lehrstuhl Bevölkerungswissenschaft der Humboldt-Universität, Berlin, Germany.
ifd@oeaw.ac.at.
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