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YEARBOOK OF POPULATION RESEARCH IN FINLAND, 1998-1999, N°35
Malthus: 200 years since the first essay.
No summary.
(POPULATION THEORY, MALTHUSIAN THEORY).
English - pp. 7-11.
A. Majava, Finnish Demographic Society, Finland.
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Population growth and aging in Finland.
A quick glance at the Finnish age pyramid gives clear signals of what the future holds. The de-velopment of fertility has influenced the shape of the pyramid most. The distinct bulge of the large age groups has had a crucial impact on the Finnish social and economic development over the past 50 years, and its effects will continue to be seen far into the future.
At the end of 1997, the population of Finland was 5,147,349 and the annual population growth was 0.2%. If the predictions of the population projection come through the population of Finland will reach its peak in 2021, when it is forecast to be 5,294,000, in other words 147,000 more than today. After this, the Finnish population will start to decline annually. The natural population growth i.e. the difference between births and deaths, will swing to negative as early as 2015.
Today, the total number of persons aged over 65 is slightly over 750,000, of whom the majority, or 62%, are women. In future years, the development of the number of old persons will, in the first place, be influenced by the predicted lower mortality rate, which will increase people's life expectancy. The number of person aged over 65 will be at its highest in the early 2030s, when estimates put it at 1,375,000. This is over 80% higher than today. The increase in the number of old persons will have an impact in the future, as more people than today will be pensioners. Therefore, the demand for the services directed to this age group will also increase and society must be able to satisfy this demand.
(FINLAND, POPULATION GROWTH, AGEING, AGE DISTRIBUTION, AGED, POPULA-TION PROJECTIONS).
English - pp. 12-23.
M. Nieminen, Population Statistics, Statistics Finland, Finland.
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Longevity in the light of the latest data.
No summary.
(LENGTH OF LIFE).
English - pp. 24-29.
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The need to reassess the role of the population variable in global development.
No summary.
(ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT).
English - pp. 30-38.
W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
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Demographic changes in Russia - past and future.
Many important demographic indices have changed dramatically in Russia during the last 10 years. The total fertility rate decreased from 2.20 to 1.28 between 1987 and 1996. The life expec-tancy for males fell by more than 7 years between 1987 and 1994, and for females by more than 3 years; after this, life expectancy began to rise again, but by 1997 the loss for males was re-stored by only 45% and for females by 60%. The natural increase of population became negative in 1992 and despite positive net migration the population of Russia began to decline. During 1992-1997 it decreased by 1.6 million persons. The population decline will continue and, accord-ing to varying forecasts, the total losses can reach from 2.4 to 12.8 million persons by 2010.
What all this means is that Russia is experiencing a serious demographic crisis. With respect to the level of mortality and its trends, Russia is in a very poor position compared to all the Western industrial countries.
The growth, or at least the stabilization, of the size of the Russian population during the first dec-ades of the 21st century will be possible only on the condition that net migration be positive for Russia and of significant proportion. But taking into consideration economic and political reali-ties, it is unlikely that this condition will be realized. It is more probable that the size of the Rus-sian population will decline.
(RUSSIA, POPULATION DYNAMICS, FERTILITY DECLINE, MORTALITY INCREASE, POPULATION DECREASE).
English - pp. 39-57.
A. Vishnevsky, Center for Demography and Human Ecology, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
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Population growth and the freedom to choose: Our common responsibilities.
No summary.
(POPULATION GROWTH).
English - pp. 58-64.
M. Simonen, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), New York, NY 10117, U.S.A.
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HIV/AIDS: The major demographic challenge of Namibia.
In Namibia, as in many other countries in Southern Africa, the prevalence of HIV/AIDS has been growing rapidly during the 1990s. According to the HIV Sentinel Surveillance 1996, 15.4% of pregnant women seeking prenatal care were HIV positive, and the highest HIV prevalence was found in the densely populated northern part of the country. The reports of the Health Informa-tion System of the Ministry of Health and Social Services show that there were 18,010 positive HIV tests during 1995-1996, and that AIDS has become the leading cause of death among re-ported deaths.
This paper is based on preliminary results of the research project Evaluating Alternative Paths for Sustainable Development in Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique, a project still continuing at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. Multi-state population projections presented here include information on educational level and HIV/AIDS status of the population. The population projections were made using the PDEPROJ Software - software designed by IIASA for making multi-state population projections. In addi-tion to being divided by sex and by five-year age groups, the population was divided into catego-ries by educational level (low and high), and HIV/AIDS status (HIV negative, HIV positive, AIDS).
The results show that HIV/AIDS will have a significant effect on future population size and age structure. In case the current development continues, the population of Namibia will be over 836,010 smaller in 2026 than without HIV/AIDS. There will also be a remarkable impact on the age structure of the population.
(NAMIBIA, AIDS, MORTALITY TRENDS, POPULATION PROJECTIONS).
English - pp. 65-81.
R. Shemeikka, Population Research Unit, Department of Sociology, University of Helsinki, Fin-land.
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Non-Governmental Organizations and world population issues.
No summary.
(WORLD POPULATION, NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS).
English - pp. 82-94.
J. Hulkko, Väestöliitto, The Family Federation of Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
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Infant mortality and the decline of fertility in Bangladesh.
The main purpose of this article is to determine the effect of infant mortality on fertility decline with a comparative review of the decline in infant mortality and fertility in Bangladesh. The possible relation and interaction between infant mortality decline and fertility decline are described, based mainly on the Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) 1989. In addition, information from other sources will be utilized to assess consistency and to arrive at reasonable conclusions concerning the levels and trends of fertility and infant mortality and also the increasing contraceptive prevalence rate.
Fertility and infant mortality have declined considerably between 1975 and 1990. The decline is greater in urban areas than in rural areas. The use of contraceptives increased steadily in Bangla-desh between 1983 and 1991. Bangladesh is unique in having a relatively high contraceptive prevalence rate in an environment of low socioeconomic development. The high level of contra-ceptive use in Bangladesh has had an indirect effect on the decline of infant mortality.
(BANGLADESH, INFANT MORTALITY, FERTILITY DECLINE, MORTALITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE).
English - pp. 95-113.
A. Hossain, Population Research Unit, University of Helsinki, Finland.
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Who do we think we are -- The Finnishness in Finnish-American songs.
From the last part of the 19th century, Finnish immigrants in North America were involved in a variety of cultural activities. Among the many interests the immigrants had were music and songs, which were a natural part of their existence. My intention here is to give a brief overview of this area of tradition which is less known in every way. I will provide an idea of the Finnish-American identity described in the songs of Finns in America between the years 1900 and 1930. Sometimes only written by hand, published in a small booklet or printed by a Finnish-American organization as a songbook, or sung on major-label records, in these songs there can still be found traces of the individual mind and group voice of these immigrants. The identity itself has a double meaning and is very well suited as a focus when discussing these songs. As we all know, one meaning of identity is sameness and another is distinctiveness, where the latter seems to refer to individual identity and the former has to do with a sense of commonality between several per-sons who constitute a group. The song texts in question often more or less follow these given identity patterns. I am simply trying to find an answer to the following question: What was the identity that an individual Finn or Finns as a group wanted to manifest to other ethnic groups during the "golden years" of Finnish-American culture in the United States. Naturally, one can't avoid the effect of acculturation which I will discuss briefly while commenting on certain Fin-nish-American songs.
(FINLAND, UNITED STATES, IMMIGRANTS, CULTURE, ETHNIC MINORITIES, MI-GRANT ASSIMILATION).
English - pp. 114-132.
J. Niemelä, Institute of Migration, Turku, Finland.
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Support and opposition to abortion in Finland.
No summary.
(FINLAND, ABORTION, PUBLIC OPINION).
English - pp. 133-144.
H. Ervasti, Department of Social Policy, University of Turku, Finland.
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Families with children in recessionary Finland.
The aim of this article is to describe the distribution of welfare in Finnish families with children in the 1990s. This distribution of welfare is examined in relation to the development of social services and income transfers. The main temporal context is the first half of the 1990s, that is, the worst years of recession. The findings offer a somewhat controversial picture of the actualization of welfare among families with children. In the economic analysis, it is indisputable that single-parent families were worse off than families with two providers. In examining welfare deficien-cies, no such clear conclusion can be drawn. The well-being of both family types decreased dur-ing the recession, but this decline was strongest in single-parent families. Because of the huge increase in poverty risk, single-parent families can be seen as the victims of recession.
(FINLAND, ECONOMIC RECESSION, FAMILY WELFARE, SOCIAL SECURITY, FAM-ILY COMPOSITION, POVERTY).
English - pp. 145-157.
K. Forssén, University of Turku, Department of Social Policy, Finland.
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