| Retour à la page d'accueil |
| Back to Home page |
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, March 2000, Vol. 26, N° 1
The US decennial census: Political questions, scientific answers.
The US decennial census was initiated in 1790 to facilitate nation-building tasks, especially that of reconfiguring political representation as the population grew and settled new territories. To this basic task of power distribution have been added other key governmental functions, such as the use of census data in guiding revenue sharing and in the enforcement of nondiscriminatory policies. Throughout its history the census has been the focus of partisan clashes. Following the identification of the "differential undercount" a measure of how census coverage differs across demographic groups and geographic areas the partisan battles intensified, and in recent decades have come to focus not just on how the census counts are used but how the census data are collected. It has been argued that census methodology could be designed to predetermine given partisan outcomes, and for the 2000 census this charge shifted from "could be" to "was being." The Census Bureau has taken extraordinary steps to demonstrate that no partisan considerations have affected the design or implementation of the census, and that its decisions are based solely on the best technical judgment available.
(UNITED STATES, POPULATION CENSUSES, GOVERNMENT POLICY, UNDERENUMERATION, CENSUS DATA, DATA GATHERING, ERRORS, METHODOLOGY).
English - pp. 116.
K. Prewitt, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S.A.
***
LEACH, Melissa; FAIRHEAD, James.
Challenging neo-Malthusian deforestation analyses in West Africa's dynamic forest landscapes.
Many influential analyses of West Africa take it for granted that "original" forest cover has progressively been converted and savannized during the twentieth century by growing populations. By testing these assumptions against historical evidence, exemplified for Ghana and Ivory Coast, this article shows that these neo-Malthusian deforestation narratives badly misrepresent peopleforest relationships. They obscure important nonlinear dynamics, as well as widespread anthropogenic forest expansion and landscape enrichment. These processes are better captured, in broad terms, by a neo-Boserupian perspective on populationforest dynamics. However, comprehending variations in locale-specific trajectories of change requires fuller appreciation of social differences in environmental and resource values, of how diverse institutions shape resource access and control, and of ecological variability and path dependency in how landscapes respond to use. The second half of the article presents and illustrates such a "landscape structuration" perspective through case studies from the forestsavanna transition zones of Ghana and Guinea.
(WESTERN AFRICA, FOREST RESOURCES, ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION GROWTH, HISTORY, THEORY).
English - pp. 1743.
M. Leach, Environment Group, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, U.K.; J. Fairhead, Department of Anthropology, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, London, U.K.
***
SZRETER, Simon; GARRETT, Eilidh.
Reproduction, compositional demography, and economic growth: Family planning in England long before the fertility decline.
This article offers a radical reinterpretation of the chronology of control over reproduction in England's history. It argues that, as a result of postWorld War II policy preoccupations, there has been too narrow a focus in the literature on the significance of reductions in marital fertility. In England's case this is conventionally dated to have occurred from 1876, long after the industrial revolution. With a wider-angle focus on "reproduction," the historical evidence for England indicates that family planning began much earlier in the process of economic growth. Using a "compositional demography" approach, a novel social pattern of highly prudential, late marriage can be seen emerging among the bourgeoisie in the course of the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. There is also evidence for a more widespread resort to such prudential marriage throughout the population after 1816. When placed in this context, the reduction in national fertility indexes visible from 1876 can be seen as only a further phase, not a revolution, in the population's management of its reproduction.
(ENGLAND, HISTORY, FERTILITY TRENDS, REPRODUCTION RATE, FAMILY PLANNING, AGE AT MARRIAGE, FERTILITY DECLINE).
English - pp. 4580.
S. Szreter, St. John's College, Cambridge CB2 1TP, U.K.; E. Garrett, Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, U.K.
srss@joh.cam.ac.uk.
***
GREENE, Margaret E.; BIDDLECOM, Ann E.
Absent and problematic men: Demographic accounts of male reproductive roles.
Both men and women are important actors in bringing children into life, yet demographic studies on reproduction have tended to focus on women alone. The aims of this article are: 1) to describe why men have attracted limited interest as subjects of such research; 2) to evaluate existing research on men's roles in developing countries; and 3) to suggest directions for future research on male reproductive roles. Men, once neglected, are now included in research on fertility but from a narrow, overly problem-oriented perspective. A review of the literature, however, raises questions about the adequacy of a problem-oriented approach. The authors argue that demography should focus on men not only as women's partners, but also as individuals with distinct reproductive histories. In situations, now increasingly common, where the links between marriage and childbearing erode, the differences in men's and women's reproductive experiences and the costs and benefits of parenting will become more salient for future research.
(MEN, MEN'S ROLE, REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH).
English - pp. 81115.
M. E. Greene, Center for Health and Gender Equity, 6930 Carroll Avenue, Takoma Park, Maryland, 20912, U.S.A.; A. E. Biddlecom, Division of Surveys and Technologies, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106-1248, U.S.A.
mgreene@genderhealth.org; abiddle@umich.edu.
***
Rethinking the African AIDS epidemic.
Half the AIDS victims in the world are in East and Southern Africa, where adult HIV seroprevalence was 11.4 percent by the end of 1997 and over 25 percent in two countries of Southern Africa. HIV/AIDS infection is not the result of ignorance, as nearly everyone has sufficient knowledge about AIDS and how it is transmitted. The high levels of AIDS arise from the failure of African political and religious leaders to recognize social and sexual reality. The means for containing and conquering the epidemic are already known, and could prove effective if the leadership could be induced to adopt them. The lack of individual behavioral change and of the implementation of effective government policy has roots in attitudes to death and a silence about the epidemic arising from beliefs about its nature and the timing of death. International responsibility may have to be taken before the needed effective policies are put in place.
(AFRICA, AIDS, EPIDEMICS, THEORY, GOVERNMENT POLICY, CULTURE).
English - pp. 117135.
J. C. Caldwell, Emeritus Professor of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
jack.caldwell.@nceph.anu.edu.au.
***
Long-term population projections and the US Social Security System.
According to a report recently issued by the Technical Panel for the US Social Security Administration, the long-term financial outlook for the system is worse than previously thought. The worsening projected by the panel in the long-run funding imbalance of the Social Security System is mostly due to the recommendation by the panel to add an extra four years to the currently projected increase in life expectancy by 2075: from 81.8 years to 85.9 years. The panel recommended no change in the current intermediate projected long-run TFR of 1.9 and net immigration of 900,000 persons per year. The recommendation to increase the projected gains in life expectancy was based on international trends as well as on historical trends in the United States and the absence of biological evidence ruling out such gains. Industrial countries have a history of under-predicting the growth of their elderly population, and it is expected that large mortality adjustments may be needed in the projections for public pension programs also in industrial countries other than the United States.
(UNITED STATES, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS, SOCIAL SECURITY, LIFE EXPECTANCY, PUBLIC FINANCE, AGEING, RETIREMENT PENSIONS).
English - pp. 137143.
R. Lee, Department of Demography and Economics, University of California at Berkeley, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, California 94720, U.S.A.
rlee@demog.berkeley.edu.
***
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, June 2000, Vol. 26, N° 2
The limits to low fertility: A biosocial approach.
In light of 30 years of below-replacement fertility in many industrialized societies, demographers are asking whether fertility could drop even further, or whether there is a "floor" below which it will not fall. A key unanswered question is whether there may be a variable biological component to fertility motivation which ensures that we continue to reproduce. Drawing on evidence from evolutionary biology, ethology, quantitative genetics, developmental psychobiology, and psychology, the article argues that our evolved biological predisposition is toward nurturing behaviors, rather than having children per se. Humans have the unique ability to be aware of such biological predispositions and translate them into conscious, but nevertheless biologically based, fertility motivation. It is likely that we have already reached the limits to low fertility since this "need to nurture," in conjunction with normative pressures, ensures that the majority of women will want to bear at least one child. A sketch for a biosocial model of fertility motivation is outlined.
(BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY, FERTILITY DECLINE, BIOLOGY, THEORETICAL MODELS).
English - pp. 209-234.
C. Foster, Department of Demography, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1NF, U.K.
caroline.foster@nuffield.ox.ac.uk.
***
Relative cohort size: Source of a unifying theory of global fertility transition?
Using United Nations estimates of age structure and vital rates for 184 countries at five-year intervals from 1950 through 1995, this article demonstrates how changes in relative cohort size appear to have affected patterns of fertility across countries since 1950-not just in developed countries, but perhaps even more importantly in developing countries as they pass through the demographic transition. The increase in relative cohort size (defined as the proportion of males aged 15-24 relative to males aged 25-59), which occurs as a result of declining mortality rates among infants, children, and young adults during the demographic transition, appears to act as the mechanism that determines when the fertility portion of the transition begins. As hypothesized by Richard Easterlin, the increasing proportion of young adults generates a downward pressure on young men's relative wages (or on the size of landholdings passed on from parent to child), which in turn causes young adults to accept a tradeoff between family size and material wellbeing, setting in motion a "cascade" or "snowball" effect in which total fertility rates tumble as social norms regarding acceptable family sizes begin to change.
(DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, COHORT FERTILITY, DEFICIENT COHORTS, LARGE COHORTS, MORTALITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS).
English - pp. 235-261.
D. J. Macunovich, Department of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University, New York, U.S.A.
***
Coresidential patterns in historical China: A simulation study.
The controversy regarding China's historical residential patterns is related to the lack of investigation into demographic influences on past kinship structures and household formation. This study uses computer micro-simulation to examine the demographic feasibility of people living in large multi-generation households under the demographic conditions close to those recorded in Chinese history. It investigates both the composition of households in which individuals live at a particular point in their life course and the transition in their household structure and the length of time they spend in households of different types. The simulation exercise suggests that demographic regimes and household formation systems similar to those operating in China in the past produce diverse residential patterns, in which individuals could experience different household forms at different stages of the life cycle.
(CHINA, HISTORY, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, COHABITATION, SIMULATION, EXTENDED FAMILY, LIFE CYCLE, POPULATION DYNAMICS).
English - pp. 263-293.
Z. Zhao, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
zhongwei.zhao@coombs.anu.edu.au.
***
Uncertain aims and tacit negotiation: Birth control practices in Britain, 1925-50.
Evidence from oral history interviews is used to suggest the need to reevaluate our understanding of the dynamics of fertility decisions and behavior in the first half of the twentieth century. Those interviewed stressed their vague and haphazard approach to contraceptive use, in sharp contrast to the dominant depiction in studies of fertility decline that emphasize the degree to which individuals made deliberate and calculated choices about family size based on an assessment of the costs and benefits of childrearing. Details of individual contraceptive strategies elucidate the complexities of birth control behavior: couples, lacking explicit aims for family limitation, adopted diverse methods of birth control, using them for different reasons, at different times, with varying degrees of determination and confidence and frequently with very little direct discussion or planning. Explicit articulation of aims was not a necessary prerequisite of the spread of birth control; accepted gender roles meant that responsibilities and obligations emerged gradually and tacitly. As a result, nevertheless, low fertility was effectively achieved.
(UNITED KINGDOM, HISTORY, FAMILY PLANNING, FERTILITY, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, DECISION MAKING).
English - pp. 295-317.
K. Fisher, Wolfson College, University of Oxford, Oxford, U.K.
***
Agricultural adjustment in China: Problems and prospects.
Because of the low income elasticity of demand for farm products and the ability of farmers to increase labor productivity, economic growth requires that farm employment decline if farmers are to share in the benefits of such growth. In 1952 approximately 84 percent of China's workers were engaged in agriculture; in 1997 the figure had declined to 41 percent. By 2030 farm employment may account for only 10 percent of the total. The productivity of farm labor must increase at a rapid pace if the 63 percent decline in farm employment does not adversely affect the rate of growth of farm output.
(CHINA, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL POPULATION).
English - pp. 319-334.
D. G. Johnson, Eliakim Hastings Moore Distinguished Service, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, U.S.A.
***
Crime, gender, and society in India: Insights from homicide data.
This study presents an analysis of inter-district variations in murder rates in India in 1981. Three significant patterns emerge. First, murder rates in India bear no significant relation with urbanization or poverty. Second, there is a negative association between literacy and criminal violence. Third, murder rates in India are highly correlated with the female-male ratio in the population: districts with higher female-male ratios have lower murder rates. Alternative hypotheses about the causal relationships underlying this connection between sex ratios and murder rates are scrutinized. One plausible explanation is that low female-male ratios and high murder rates are joint symptoms of a patriarchal environment. This study also suggests that gender relations, in general, have a crucial bearing on criminal violence.
(INDIA, HOMICIDE, VIOLENCE, SEX RATIO, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY).
English - pp. 335-352.
J. Drèze, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics; R. Khera, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, U.K.
***