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91 POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT, JANUARY 1999, VOL. 20, N° 3
Arithmetic of growth: Methods of calculation, II.
This calculational tutorial continues the presentation of an earlier article (Bartlett, 1993). It starts with a news item that features one elderly person who has 67 grandchildren and 201 great grandchildren. This tutorial develops simple mathematical models to show how to calculate approximate average rates of growth of descendants using very simple assumptions plus the data from the news story. The model is then enlarged to describe the growth of populations and to see how the growth of populations is related to the growth of descendants and to fertility. The analysis is then generalized so it can be applied to other reproductive phenomena, such as the production of Ph.D.s. The goal is to illustrate the essential features of the simplest elements of the population growth process by introducing modeling that is within the reach of those who can use algebra.
English - pp. 215-246.
A. A. Bartlett, Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0390, U.S.A.
(METHODOLOGY, MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, POPULATION GROWTH.)
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Regional dynamics of Tibetan population change in Eastern Tibet, ca. 1940-1982.
English - pp. 247-258.
K. E. Ryavec, Department of Geography, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, U.S.A.
(CHINA, REGIONS, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, POPULATION DYNAMICS, TRENDS.)
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Internal migration of the foreign-born: Population concentration or dispersion?.
Recent analyses of the 1990 census migration data have pointed to the different demographic effects of internal migration and immigration. States and metropolitan areas either have large population gains through immigration or internal migration, but rarely both, leading to what has been labeled as an increasing demographic "balkanization" of the U.S. population. This paper explores the proposition that the internal migration of the foreign-born (pre-1985 arrivals) is likely to reinforce the demographic effects of immigration. Analysis is based on the 5% Public Use Microdata file of the U.S. Census, with the demographic effects evaluated at both the state and metropolitan area levels. Distinctions were also made between 19 separate national origin groups, increasing the detail of the analysis. Despite high internal migration rates and large net migration, there was little change in the overall distribution and concentration of the foreign-born population between 1985 and 1990. More important, however, distinctions were found across the national origin groups. While secondary migration leads to dispersion among some groups, other groups were becoming increasingly concentrated, suggesting that demographic balkanization of the American population is more variable than the literature would suggest.
English - pp. 259-276.
K. B. Newbold, Department of Geography, University of Illinois, 607 S. Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801, U.S.A.
(UNITED STATES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, FOREIGNERS, NATIONALITY, SCATTER OF THE POPULATION, POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS.)
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91 POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT, MARCH 1999, VOL. 20, N° 4
The post-petroleum paradigm - and population.
The use of oil has changed world economies, social and political structures, and lifestyles beyond the effect of any other substance in such a short time. But oil supplies are limited. The peak of world oil production and the beginning of the irreversible decline of oil availability is clearly in sight. This paper examines the role of oil in two contexts: Its importance in countries almost entirely dependent on oil income, and the role of oil in world agricultural productivity. Possible alternatives to oil and its close associate, natural gas, are also examined. Countries almost solely dependent on oil income are chiefly those of the Persian Gulf region. The prosperity which oil has brought to these nations has resulted in a rapidly growing population which is not sustainable without oil revenues. World agriculture is now highly dependent on oil and natural gas for fertilizers and pesticides. Without these, agricultural productivity would markedly decline. As a base for the production of these materials, oil and natural gas are irreplaceable. Lifestyles and affluence in the post-petroleum paradigm will be quite different from today. World population will have to be reduced if it is to exist at any reasonable standard of living. At that time concern will be much more centered on obtaining basic resources, especially agricultural, by which to survive.
English - pp. 297-316.
W. Youngquist, Consulting Geologist, P.O. Box 5501, Eugene, OR 97405, U.S.A.
(WORLD POPULATION, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, ENERGY SUPPLY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY.)
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A changing identity: Results from the Isle of Man census 1996.
English - pp. 317-324.
J. Boyle, Economic Affairs Division, The Treasury, 2 Circular Road, Douglas, Isle of Man LM1 1PQ, U.K.
(ISLE OF MAN, POPULATION CENSUS.)
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The demographic implications of economic growth in the Isle of Man.
The Isle of Man provides not only a classic case study of the relationship between economic and demographic change but also an example of a country in which optimum population is central to Government policy formulation. Whilst in other (larger) economies, the notion of optimum population may be regarded as a utopian concept of peripheral concern, in the Isle of Man it plays a pivotal role in the central planning exercise and is subject to constant review.
English - pp. 325-335.
M. Kelly, Economic Affairs Division, The Treasury, 2 Circular Road, Douglas, Isle of Man LM1 1PQ, U.K.
(ISLE OF MAN, ECONOMIC GROWTH, POPULATION DYNAMICS, OPTIMUM POPULATION, NATIONAL PLANNING.)
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00.91.7 - UNGER, Jennifer B.; MOLINA, Gregory B.
Educational differences in desired family size and attitudes toward childbearing in Latina women.
Attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size influence women's reproductive choices. This may be especially true in the Latina culture, where motherhood and large families are valued highly. To determine whether these attitudes differ by educational status, Latina women in an OB/GYN clinic (N = 351) completed a survey assessing attitudes toward childbearing and desired family size. Attitudes of women with and without a high school education were compared. Respondents without a high school education desired a mean of 3.1 children, while those with a high school education desired a mean of 2.7. Women without a high school education endorsed more attitudes favoring large families. Among women without a high school education, those who wished to have a son to carry on the family name tended to desire larger families. Results suggest that the desire for large families among Latina women with low education may result from traditional cultural attitudes.
English - pp. 343-351.
J. B. Unger, University of Southern California Institute for Prevention Research, 1540 Alcazar Street, CHIP 207, Los Angeles, CA 90033, U.S.A.
(UNITED STATES, ETHNIC GROUPS, ATTITUDE, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, CULTURE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION.)
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Economic and political issues of fertility transition in the Arab World - Answers and open questions.
English - pp. 353-380.
Y. Courbage, INED, 133 boulevard Davout, F-75980 Paris, France.
courbage@ined.fr.
(WESTERN ASIA, NORTHERN AFRICA, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY DECLINE, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, POLITICS.)
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