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58 POPULATION STUDIES, July 1998, Vol. 52, N° 2
00.58.1 - BARBER, Jennifer S.; AXINN, William G.
The impact of parental pressure for grandchildren on young people's entry into cohabitation and marriage.
This paper examines the influence of parental preferences for grandchildren on young adults' entry into cohabitation and marriage. We also consider the influence of young adults' own fertility preferences on their cohabitation and marriage behaviour. We develop a theoretical framework explaining why these childbearing attitudes influence young people's cohabitation and marriage behaviour. The results show that the childbearing preferences of young women and their mothers affect their choice between cohabitation and marriage, so that wanting many children increases the likelihood of choosing marriage. Young men whose mothers want them to have many children enter any type of co-residential union, either marriage or cohabitation, at a much higher rate than men whose mothers want them to have fewer children. Our results also provide insights into the childbearing behaviour of cohabitating couples.
English - pp. 129-144.
J. S. Barber, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48106, U.S.A.
jebarber@isr.umich.edu.
(MARRIAGE, CONSENSUAL UNION, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, PARENTS, ANCESTORS.)
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00.58.2 - TIMÆUS, Ian M.; REYNAR, Angela.
Polygynists and their wives in sub-Saharan Africa: An analysis of five Demographic and Health Surveys.
Differential polygyny in Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Uganda, and Zambia is investigated using individual-level Demographic and Health Surveys data. As well as contrasting polygynists' first wives with women in monogamous unions, the analysis distinguishes higher-order wives from first wives. This permits study of the determinants of the prevalence and intensity of polygyny respectively. Polygyny and other aspects of marriage interlock in very similar ways in all five countries. Individuals' experience of polygyny tends to reflect their luck in the marriage market rather than their socioeconomic characteristics. While polygyny is less prevalent in urban areas, other socioeconomic factors are important only in Kenya and Zambia, the two countries where less than 25% of married women are in polygynous unions. The prevalence and intensity of polygyny are negatively associated. Thus, any drop in the prevalence of polygyny in Africa may be accompanied by a rise in the number of wives per polygynist.
English - pp. 145-162.
I. Timæus, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, U.K.
I.Timaeus@lshtm.ac.uk.
(AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, POLYGAMY, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS, MARRIED WOMEN.)
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00.58.3 - JUBY, Heather; LE BOURDAIS, Céline.
The changing context of fatherhood in Canada: A life course analysis.
Current sociological research acknowledges the growing complexity of fatherhood and the widening divide observed between men's conjugal and parental careers. Little is known, however, of the importance of these changes in the population at large. What proportion of men, for example, continue to experience fatherhood within a single, durable relationship? How many have to reassess their role at its collapse? To what extent do men have to juggle different paternal roles simultaneously or live through a series of episodes as a father, and how is this diversity of experience evolving from one generation to another? In this paper we attempt to answer some of these questions, using multiple-decrement life table techniques to analyse retrospective data concerning the conjugal and parental histories of Canadian men. Our analysis reveals the extent and speed of the paternal life course transformation, and suggests that this will continue at least in the mid-term.
English - pp. 163-175.
H. Juby, Département de démographie, Université de Montréal, C.P 6128, succ. Centre-ville, Montréal (Qué.), H3C 3J7, Canada.
jubyh@ere.umontreal.ca.
(CANADA, MEN, NUPTIALITY, PARENTHOOD, FAMILY DISINTEGRATION, LIFE CYCLE, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, SOCIOLOGY.)
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Highly restricted fertility: Very small families in the British fertility decline.
From the earliest stages of the British fertility decline, falling mean family size was accompanied by marked rises in the proportion of married women who remained childless or who bore only a single child. This paper summarises those changes, their impact on average family size, and the implications for estimates of the proportions of couples who attempted to space their children in the early years of marriage. The explanatory power of some commonly cited interpretations of the general decline in marital fertility is then considered in the context of this growth in number of families of highly restricted fertility. The paper highlights a need for more emphasis on descriptive and analytical approaches that are sensitive to distributions within populations. Also emphasized is the importance of developing interpretations that allow for the possibility that different factors may operate on different sub-sets of families at different points in time.
English - pp. 177-199.
M. Anderson, Department of Economic and Social History, University of Edinburgh, U.K.
(UNITED KINGDOM, FERTILITY DECLINE, BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY, FAMILY SIZE, CHILDLESS COUPLES, ONE-CHILD FAMILY.)
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Family structure and change in rural Bangladesh.
This analysis uses data from an intensive village study to investigate whether rising landlessness leads to increasing fragmentation and nucleation of families in rural Bangladesh. It was found that, even after rapid fertility decline, the elderly and women continue to rely extensively on family support. Although landlessness puts stress on intergenerational relations, a favourably low dependency ratio (elders to sons), brought about by the child-mortality decline of the 1950s and 1960s, has allowed the burden to be spread over larger numbers of sons than were previously available. A persistence of traditional living arrangements, in which sons form their own households in the homesteads of their fathers, also contributes to retarding the process of family disintegration that is likely to be caused when farm size decreases and the role of the farm economy in a traditional peasant society diminishes.
English - pp. 201-213.
S. Amin, Research Division, The Population Council, New York, U.S.A.
(BANGLADESH, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, FAMILY COMPOSITION, TRADITIONAL SOCIETY, EXTENDED FAMILY, FERTILITY DECLINE, IMPOVERISHMENT.)
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Beyond infant mortality: Gender and stillbirth in reproductive mortality before the twentieth century.
Though it has been the largest component of reproductive mortality since its statutory registration in 1928, stillbirth has received little attention from historical demographers, who have relied on the more orthodox indicator of early human survival changes - "infant mortality". The exclusion of stillbirth hampers demographic analysis, underestimates progress in newborn vitality, and over-privileges post-natal causes in theoretical explanation. A case is made for estimating stillbirth before 1928 as a ratio of early neonatal death, and for employing perinatal mortality as an historical indicator of female health status. The long-run trend of reproductive mortality (encompassing mature foetal and live born infant death during the first eleven months) reveals a substantial decline in perinatal causes in the first industrial century (1750-1850), implying a major concurrent improvement in the nutritional status of child bearers. Reproductive mortality is a more complete indicator of death in infancy. It offers demographers a means of fracturing the fertility versus mortality dualism and a potential purchase on gender as a demographic variable, while re-opening the case on mortality in the demographic dynamic of the world we have lost.
English - pp. 215-229.
N. Hart, University of California, Los Angeles, U.S.A.
(UNITED KINGDOM, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, LATE FOETAL MORTALITY, PERINATAL MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY, METHODOLOGY, HEALTH.)
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00.58.7 - PINTO AGUIRRE, Guido; PALLONI, Alberto; JONES, Robert E.
Effects of lactation on post-partum amenorrhoea: Re-estimation using data from a longitudinal study in Guatemala.
In this paper we re-estimate the effects of breastfeeding patterns on the timing of resumption of menses after controlling for maternal nutrition and maternal stressor variables. The analysis shows that simple hazard models, used on data from a longitudinal study in Guatemala, provide estimates of effects on timing of resumption of menstruation that are (a) comparable to others discussed in the recent literature and (b) generally consistent with hypotheses relating patterns of lactation, maternal nutritional status, and maternal stressors to processes that accelerate (decelerate) resumption of ovulatory cycles.
English - pp. 231-248.
G. Pinto Aguirre, Research Triangle Institute, NC, U.S.A.
(GUATEMALA, BREAST FEEDING, POST-PARTUM AMENORRHOEA, OVULATION.)
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58 POPULATION STUDIES, March 1999, Vol. 53, N° 1
Evaluating the economic returns to childbearing in Côte d'Ivoire.
While it has been often suggested, most notably by Caldwell, that high fertility in developing countries is motivated by the positive economic returns that children contribute to their parents, empirical evidence to support the hypothesis is limited. This paper describes a method of measuring the economic returns from the average child over the entire parental life-cycle. The method is then applied to detailed household economic data from Côte d'lvoire. The results indicate that parents give more to their children than they receive and that the economic returns from children are negative. Overall, we estimate that the average child provides an annual rate of return of roughly - 8%. Our results shed light on how the returns from childbearing vary according to the age of the parents at time of birth. The results also offer a potential economic explanation of why older couples are often first to adopt modern contraception.
English - pp. 1-17.
G. Stecklov, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, U.S.A.
(COTE D'IVOIRE, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS, COST OF CHILDREN.)
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00.58.9 - BERRINGTON, Ann; DIAMOND, Ian.
Marital dissolution among the 1958 British birth cohort: The role of cohabitation.
This paper investigates the effect of previous cohabitation on marital stability among the 1958 British birth cohort. Prospective data from the National Child Development Study are used to investigate the way in which family background factors and early lifecourse experiences, including cohabitation, affect the risk of first marriage dissolution by age 33. Discrete time logistic regression hazards models are used to analyse the risk of separation in the first eight years of marriage. Many socioeconomic and family background factors are found to act through more intermediate determinants, such as age at marriage and the timing of childbearing, to affect the risk of separation. Previous cohabitation with another partner and premarital cohabitation are both associated with higher rates of marital breakdown. The effect of premarital cohabitation is attenuated but remains significant once the characteristics of cohabitors are controlled, and cannot be explained by the longer time spent in a partnership.
English - pp. 19-38.
A. Berrington and I. Diamond, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, U.K.
(UNITED KINGDOM, DIVORCE, FIRST MARRIAGE, PREMARITAL COHABITATION, CONSENSUAL UNION, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS.)
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00.58.10 - KIERNAN, Kathleen E.; CHERLIN, Andrew J.
Parental divorce and partnership dissolution in adulthood: Evidence from a British cohort study.
From a longitudinal survey of a British cohort born in 1958 this study finds that, by age 33, off-spring of parents who divorced are more likely to have dissolved their first partnerships. This finding persists after taking into account age at first partnership, type of first partnership (marital, premarital cohabiting union, and cohabiting union), and indicators of class background and childhood and adolescent school achievement and behaviour problems. Some of these factors are associated with partnership dissolution in their own right, but the association between parental divorce and second generation partnership dissolution is largely independent of them. Demographic factors, including type of and age at first partnership, were important links between parental divorce and partnership dissolution. Moreover, the estimated effects of parental divorce were substantially reduced when the demographic variables were taken into account, suggesting that cohabitation and early partnership may be important pathways through which a parental divorce, or the unmeasured characteristics correlated with it, affect partnership dissolution.
English - pp. 39-48.
K. E. Kiernan, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, U.K.
(UNITED KINGDOM, DIVORCE, MARRIAGE, CONSENSUAL UNION, PREMARITAL COHABITATION, SEPARATION, GENERATIONS.)
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Should prenatal sex selection be restricted? Ethical questions and their implications for research and policy.
Sex-selective abortion following prenatal sex testing is so blatantly discriminatory that many observers have, understandably, called on governments to condemn and restrict the practice. Yet ethical questions that counterbalance these sentiments have been neglected. Restricting the practice would seem to interfere with reproductive freedoms and maternal empowerment, the twin goals adopted at the recent Cairo conference. The restrictions may also increase human suffering if sex discrimination is then shifted into the postnatal period. Consideration and empirical testing of this substitutive dynamic has been precluded by limitations in the comparative design of recent research and a lack of appropriate data. Nevertheless, this dynamic has always been presumed to exist by pro-choice advocates. Moreover, extending anti-discriminatory legislation to the prenatal realm may awaken and justify similar demands among other disadvantaged groups whose foetal counterparts have previously engendered less public sympathy, which may result in further restrictions on abortion.
English - pp. 49-61.
D. Goodkind, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, U.S.A.
(SEX PREDETERMINATION, SEX PREFERENCE, INDUCED ABORTION, ETHICS, SEX DISCRIMINATION, POLITICS.)
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Does marriage require a stronger economic underpinning than informal cohabitation?.
A large proportion of cohabitors in the Statistics Norway Omnibus Surveys of 1996 reported economic reasons for their hesitation to marry, and in particular the costs of the wedding. In line with this, the Norwegian Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 revealed effects both of women's cumulated income and men's non-employment on the actual choice of union type. Also some other evidence suggests that affordability matters, although there are plausible alternative interpretations. On the other hand, several estimates suggest that economic strength does not induce marriage. Since there also has been no deterioration of young adults' economic situation in Norway, except for the delay of economic independence owing to longer college enrolment, one can hardly claim that lack of affordability is a dominating force behind the massive drift away from marriage. The analysis is anchored in a theoretical framework that may prove useful in other studies of cohabitation as an alternative to marriage.
English - pp. 63-80.
Ø. Kravdal, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Norway.
(NORWAY, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, MARRIAGE, CONSENSUAL UNION, ECONOMIC RESOURCES.)
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00.58.13 - GRAGNOLATI, Michele; ELO, Irma T.; GOLDMAN, Noreen.
New insights into the Far Eastern pattern of mortality.
Some of the highest levels of excess mortality of males found anywhere in the world were present in several Far Eastern populations during the 1960s and 1970s but have progressively disappeared since that time. This study uses cause-of-death data to determine the diseases responsible for the existence and attenuation of these sex differences in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. The results indicate that respiratory tuberculosis is the single most important underlying cause of the existence and attenuation of the pattern, that the role of liver diseases is not clear cut, and that other causes (such as cardiovascular diseases) are also important. A review of numerous risk factors yields no compelling reason why these populations experienced such large sex differences in mortality. However, it seems likely that public health and biomedical improvements (particularly those related to the reduction in mortality from tuberculosis) played a critical role in the attenuation of the Far Eastern mortality pattern.
English - pp. 81-95.
M. Gragnolati, Program in Population Studies, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091, U.S.A.
(EASTERN ASIA, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, CAUSES OF DEATH.)
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Classifying causes of death according to an aetiological axis.
The analysis of mortality by cause usually relies on groups of causes created by consolidating items from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD). However, this type of grouping is not a very efficient means of describing the real trends in pathological processes. In this paper an alternative classification based on aetiological definitions is proposed. Redistributing deaths between eight aetiological categories categories offers a different perception of the main determinants of health transition and of mortality prospects. It also provides a view of inter-country differences which may help explain recent variation in trends. It is regrettable that, in the tenth revision of the International Classification of Diseases, the World Health Organisation (WHO) did not adopt the idea of a dual classification system combining an anatomical axis with an aetiological one. The present paper, it is hoped, will encourage further developments in this direction.
English - pp. 97-105.
F. Meslé, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 Boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris, France.
(CAUSES OF DEATH, CLASSIFICATION, WHO, DISEASES, METHODOLOGY.)
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58 POPULATION STUDIES, July 1999, Vol. 53, N° 2
00.58.15 - WILSON, Chris; AIREY, Pauline.
How can a homeostatic perspective enhance demographic transition theory?.
This paper addresses the emerging interest in the relationship between homeostatic models and demographic transition theory. Firstly, it considers the nature of fertility measurement and concepts. The paper then goes on to examine evidence from pre-transitional societies in which demographic regimes have been most thoroughly studied, summarizing what is known about their character. The nature and current status of homeostatic theories in demography and the institutional supports of pre-transitional regimes are considered. The implications of the findings on pre-transitional populations for transition theory are then discussed. The paper concludes with suggestions for ways in which studies of transition within a framework of homeostatic regimes could be developed.
English - pp. 117-128.
C. Wilson, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
(DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, POPULATION THEORY, MODELS.)
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00.58.16 - MARI BHAT, P. N.; HALLI, Shiva S.
Demography of brideprice and dowry: Causes and consequences of the Indian marriage squeeze.
The paper investigates whether past declines in mortality could have created a huge deficit of eligible men in the marriage market, and whether the ensuing competition for mates could be responsible for the coercive character the dowry system of marriage has assumed in India. New indices have been developed to measure the trends in bridegroom availability that aid in the inquiry into the demographic origins of marriage squeeze. It is contended that the marriage squeeze against women was particularly intense in India because mortality decline, in addition to age structural changes, drastically reduced the number of widowers in the population who once accounted for about one-fifth of the annual supply of bridegrooms. Our projections indicate that, as a result of recent declines in fertility, the marriage squeeze against females will ease substantially by the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century, and that marriages of men will begin to be delayed more than those of women.
English - pp. 129-148.
P. N. Mari Bhat, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi 110 007, India.
mari@ieg.ernet.in.
(INDIA, MARRIAGEABLE POPULATION, ARRANGED MARRIAGE, DOWRY, WOMEN'S STATUS, MORTALITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DECLINE.)
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00.58.17 - KNODEL, John; SOOTTIPONG GRAY, Rossarin; SRIWATCHARIN, Porntip; PERACCA, Sara.
Religion and reproduction: Muslims in Buddhist Thailand.
This study examines the contrast between Muslim reproductive attitudes and behaviour in Thailand and those of Buddhists, especially in the southern region. Results are based primarily on a large regional survey directed towards this topic and focus group discussions among Muslims in Southern Thailand. We interpret Muslim reproductive patterns from the perspectives of the major hypotheses that have been invoked in the social demographic literature to explain links between religion and fertility. These hypotheses partly explain what appears to be a complex and context-specific relationship. Nevertheless, the linkages between religion, ethnic and cultural identity, and political setting that appear to operate are more complex than can be fully explained by even a combination of the existing hypotheses.
English - pp. 149-164.
J. Knodel, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, U.S.A.
(THAILAND, MUSLIMS, BUDDHISTS, RELIGION, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, THEORY.)
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00.58.18 - PRESTON, Samuel H.; ELO, Irma T.; STEWART, Quincy.
Effects of age misreporting on mortality estimates at older ages.
This study examines how age misreporting typically affects estimates of mortality at older ages. We investigate the effects of three patterns of age misreporting -- net age overstatement, net age understatement, and symmetric age misreporting -- on mortality estimates at ages 40 and above. We consider five methods to estimate mortality: conventional estimates derived from vital statistics and censuses; longitudinal studies where age is identified at baseline; variable-r procedures based on age distributions of the population; variable-r procedures based on age distributions of deaths; and extinct generation methods. For each of the age misreporting patterns and each of the methods of mortality estimation, we find that age misstatement biases mortality estimates downwards at the oldest ages.
English - pp. 165-177.
S. H. Preston, I. T. Elo and Q. Stewart, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, U.S.A.
(MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, AGED, AGE-SPECIFIC RATE, ERRORS, AGE REPORTING, METHODOLOGY.)
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00.58.19 - GREGSON, Simon; ZHUWAU, Tom; ANDERSON, Roy M.; CHANDIWANA, Stephen K.
Apostles and Zionists: The influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe.
Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or "Spirit-type" churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.
English - pp. 179-193.
S. Gregson, Wellcome Trust Center for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Oxford University, Oxford OX1 3PS, U.K.
(ZIMBABWE, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, RELIGION, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS.)
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00.58.20 - MEEKERS, Dominique; AHMED, Ghyasuddin.
Pregnancy-related school dropouts in Botswana.
In many Sub-Saharan African countries there are concerns about high rates of pregnancy-related school dropouts. Schoolgirls who become pregnant have fewer opportunities to complete their education after the birth of their first child and have fewer opportunities for socioeconomic advancement. This paper uses data from a nationally representative sample of Batswana women in conjunction with focus group interviews to describe the impact of schoolgirl pregnancy, and to identify the factors that facilitate the return to school of girls who did drop out because of pregnancy. The results indicate that the problem of schoolgirl pregnancy may be much more severe than is commonly assumed. Although the situation is improving, there is a need to continue to improve programmes to reduce adolescent pregnancy, and a need to try and increase the number of young mothers who return to school to complete their education.
English - pp. 195-209.
D. Meekers, Population Services International, 1120 Nineteenth Street, N. W., Washington, DC 20036, U.S.A.
(BOTSWANA, ADOLESCENT PREGNANCY, EDUCATIONAL DROPOUTS.)
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00.58.21 - VIKAT, Andres; THOMSON, Elizabeth; HOEM, Jan M.
Stepfamily fertility in contemporary Sweden: The impact of childbearing before the current union.
We focus on the fertility of Swedish men and women who lived in a consensual or marital union in the 1970s and 1980s, and where at least one of the partners had children before they entered that union. Couples without any children before the current union were included for contrast. We find clear evidence that couples wanted a shared biological child, essentially regardless of how many children (if any) they had before their current union. The shared child seems to have served to demonstrate commitment to the union, as did its conversion into a formal marriage. We have not found much support for the hypothesis that our respondents sought to enter parenthood to attain adult status. A second birth might have been valued because it provided a sibling for the first child -- a half-sibling acting as a substitute for a full sibling -- but our evidence for such effects is contradictory. Our analysis makes it very clear that parity progression depends on whose parity we consider.
English - pp. 211-225.
A. Vikat, Tampere School of Public Health, University of Tampere, Finland.
(SWEDEN, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, FAMILY COMPOSITION, REMARRIAGE, FERTILITY, EXPECTED FAMILY SIZE, PARITY.)
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Family matters: The impact of kin on the mortality of the elderly in rural Bangladesh.
This study uses high quality longitudinal data on kin availability, proximity, and marital status from the Matlab surveillance area in rural Bangladesh to explore the impact of kin members on the survival of the elderly over a six year period. The results -- from discrete time hazard models -- suggest that the presence of a spouse, sons, and brothers substantially improves survivorship, but with differing effects by the sex of the elderly and the number of sons and brothers. This study offers little support of any of the following as mechanisms by which kin affect the survival of the elderly: changes in the economic status of the elderly as proxied by land holdings; improved access to instrumental support as proxied by the marital status of sons; decreases in social isolation as proxied by proximity of kin.
English - pp. 227-235.
M. O. Rahman, Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, U.S.A.
(BANGLADESH, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, AGED, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, FAMILY COMPOSITION.)
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00.58.23 - JARVIS, Sarah; JENKINS, Stephen P.
Marital splits and income changes: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey.
We provide new evidence about what happens to people's incomes when their or their parents' marital union dissolves using longitudinal data from waves 1-4 of the British Household Panel Survey. Marital splits are accompanied by substantial declines in real income for separating wives and children on average, whereas separating husbands' real income on average changes much less. Results are shown to be robust to the choice of income definition and degree of economies of scale built into the household equivalence scale, and are validated with information about respondents' assessments of how their personal financial circumstances changed. In addition we analyse the extent to which the welfare state mitigates the size of the income loss for women and children relative to men, and document the accompanying changes in social assistance benefit receipt and paid work, and maintenance income receipt and payment.
English - pp. 237-254.
S. Jarvis and S. P. Jenkins, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, U.K.
(UNITED KINGDOM, END OF UNION, DIVORCE, INCOME, ECONOMIC RESOURCES.)
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00.58.24 - LI, Nan; TULJAPURKAR, Shripad.
Population momentum for gradual demographic transitions.
Population momentum is the ratio of a population's ultimate size after a demographic transition to its initial size before the transition. For an instantaneous drop to replacement fertility, Nathan Keyfitz found a simple expression MK for the momentum. However, as Keyfitz pointed out, "no one thinks that any country will drop immediately to stationary reproduction patterns". We present results concerning the momentum of a population whose demographic transition is completed within a finite time. First, we provide an exact analytical formula for such a population's momentum. Second, for rapid fertility transitions, we obtain a simple exact expression for momentum that reduces to Keyfitz's MK if the transition is instantaneous. We show, by example, that our simpler formulae are accurate approximations to population momentum for transitions that take as long as 100 years. Finally, we show that the speed of fertility decline makes a substantial difference to population momentum.
English - pp. 255-262.
N. Li and S. Tuljapurka r, Mountain View Research, Los Altos, CA 94024 ,U.S.A.
(MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, POPULATION DYNAMICS, METHODOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.)
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