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48 GENUS, July-December 1998, Vol. 54, N° 3-4
00.48.1 - MICHEL, Philippe; PESTIEAU, Pierre.
Optimal population without repugnant aspects.
This paper addresses the issue of optimum population with two concerns: avoiding both the absolute undesirable solution that amounts to giving to a finite number of individuals an infinite amount of resources and the marginal undesirable solution in which equilibrium consumption decreases with increasing income and population. To avoid these two solutions, we introduce a critical level of utility that depends on individual's marginal income.
English - pp. 25-34.
P. Michel, GREQAM, 2, rue de la Charité, F-13002 Marseille, France.
michel@chess.cnrs.mrs.fr; p.pestieau@ulg.ac.be.
(ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, OPTIMUM POPULATION, ECONOMIC THEORY.)
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00.48.2 - DI PINO, Antonino; PIRRI, Pasquale.
Analysis of survival functions by a logistic derivation model: The "Generalized De Moivre" function.
The Generalized De Moivre (GDM) is an analytical survival function deriving from the idea originally put forth by De Moivre
Its functional form is
The exponential term in the denominator may be developed to any power, but our analyses suggest that stopping at the 5th power (meaning: 6 ak-type parameters to estimate) may strike the best balance between simplicity and goodness of fit. Indeed, the estimated GDM survival functions have always proved excellent in all our applications, and always better (sometimes markedly better) than those obtained by fitting the Heligman-Pollard survival function, which has thus far been used more frequently in practical applications.
English - pp. 35-54.
A. Di Pino and P. Pirri, Istituto di Economia, Statistica e Analisi del Territorio, Università degli Studi di Messina, Via T. Cannizzaro 9, I-98100 Messine, Italy.
dipino@imeuniv.unime.it; pirri@imeuniv.unime.it.
(MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, SURVIVORSHIP FUNCTION, METHODOLOGY, CURVE FITTING.)
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Present stage of knowledge of reproductive biology concerning natural family planning.
The time for follicular development until the stage of rupture of a Graafian follicle (ovulation) is about 120 days. The common cycle length variation of the woman's cycle in a healthy population is five days. We call it a "regular cycle", if not more, than 20% of the cycles differ more than 5 days. We believe that the temperature shift in the middle of the cycle is caused by the peripheral effect of estradiol and progesterone on the peripheral circulation. The time from the beginning of the development of an individual spermatozoa to the appearance of a ripe spermatozoon in the ejaculate is about threee months. The lifespan of the ripe oocyte is 18-24 hours. The duration of fertilising capacity of sperm can be five days with decreasing probability; in very rare cases it can be seven days. The probability of conception, in our very simple model was 33.3% at ovulation day (day 0).
English - pp. 57-74.
G. Freundl, Frauenklinik, Städt. Krankenhaus D-Benrat, Urdenbacher Allee 83, D-40593 Düsseldorf, Germany.
freundlg@uni-duesseldorf.de.
(BIOLOGY, MENSTRUAL CYCLE, FECUNDABILITY.)
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General overview of natural family planning.
The natural family planning (NFP) is the woman's awareness of her fertile and infertile days in order to avoid or achieve pregnancy. When employed to avoid pregnancy NFP determines sexual abstinence in the fertile days, what implies that the woman has to learn a technique for the awareness of her fertility and the couple has to be willing to keep sexual abstinence in some days of the cycle. The paper analyses the different NFP methods: Ogino-Knaus, Temperature, Ovulation-Billings, Symptomthermal, Lactational Amenorrhea and kits, describing their scientific basis, technical approach, results, advantages and disadvantages and clinical acceptability.
English - pp. 75-93.
A. Pérez, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Box 114-D, Santiago, Chile.
(NATURAL FAMILY PLANNING.)
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00.48.5 - MONARI, Paola; MONTANARI, Angela.
Length of menstrual cycles and their variability.
The paper presents a study on the length of woman menstrual cycle and of its phases on a data base provided by the Catholic Marriage Advisory Council of London comprising informations on 1781 women and 31290 cycles. The length of the cycle and the preovulatory phase shorten as age increases, while the postovulatory phase is more stable. An original aspect of the research is the identification of classes of gynaecological age, that is age groups homogeneous as far as the cycle length or the length of its phases is concerned. In spite of the evident dominance of the preovulatory phase length on the total cycle length, the work has evidenced a strong compensatory effect between the pre and postovulatory phases, which leads the total cycle length to concentrate around 27-28 days. Furthermore a method to determine a distribution model for cycle length is proposed via kernel density estimation.
English - pp. 95-118.
P. Monari and A. Montanari, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università di Bologna, Via Belle Arti 41, I-40126 Bologna, Italy.
(BIOLOGY, MENSTRUAL CYCLE, DURATION, MODELS.)
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Experience in the use of natural family planning in the field: Calendar and calendar-basal body temperature methods.
Using the calendar method to determine the fertile days of the cycle, pregnancy rates of reliable studies report a 12-months Pearl rate of 18.5. Using basal body temperature BBT alone with coitus confined to the post ovulation infertile phase, pregnancy rates are 0.11-1.2 per 100 women year for method failure. BBT and calendar combined have achieved pregnancy rates of 5.0 for method failure. These methods of periodic abstinence require a strong educational component. The majority of unplanned pregnancies result from failure, to abstain during the defined fertile period.
English - pp. 119-128.
J. Bonnar, Trinity College, University of Dublin, Coombe Women's Hospital, Dublin, Ireland.
(NATURAL FAMILY PLANNING, EVALUATION, EXPERIMENTATION.)
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00.48.7 - WEINBERG, Clarice R.; WILCOX, A. J.; BAIRD, D. D.; GLADEN, B. B.
The probability of conception as related to the timing of intercourse around ovulation.
Women attempting pregnancy collected a daily urine specimen and indicated occurrences of menstrual bleeding and unprotected intercourse. We used ovarian hormones to identify the day of ovulation. Six hundred and twenty menstrual cycles provided 192 conceptions. We estimate that the maximum single day probability of conception is 0.37. The probability may be nil except during the 6-day interval ending on the day of ovulation. A parametric model yields half-lives of 25.6 hours for the sperm, and 1.2 hours for the ovum. Heterogeneity in fecundability among couples was evident and future statistical models should account for this heterogeneity.
English - pp. 129-142.
C. R. Weinberg, MD A3-03, Statistics and Biomathematics Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, P.O. Box 12233, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, U.S.A.
weinberg@pogo.niehs.nih.gov.
(FECUNDABILITY, FERTILITY, ENDOCRINOLOGY, BIOSTATISTICS.)
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Self, laboratory and clinical tests of potential fertility.
This review provides a pshycological background to the introduction of a personal monitor for locating the start and finish of potential fertility during the menstrual cycle. The temporal relationship between indices of potential fertility and the day specific probability of conception are described. The new test system primarily involves the measurement of defined changes in the concentration of estrone glucuronide (EG) and luteinizing hormone (LH) in samples of early morning urine according to an adaptive algorithm. The monitor could be of help to many couples who wish to avoid or achieve a pregnancy.
English - pp. 143-151.
W. P. Collins, King's College School of Medicine and Dentistry, Diagnostics Research Unit, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Denmark Hill, London SE5 8RX, U.K.
w.collins@kcl.ac.uk.
(FECUNDABILITY, FECUNDITY, TESTS, NATURAL FAMILY PLANNING.)
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Evaluation of fertility predictors and comparison of different rules.
There are three main types of observations on which rely suggestions given in centres providing advice on natural regulation of fertility in view of achieving or avoiding a pregnancy: calendar of previous events, basal body temperature, appearance and or sensation of cervical mucus. The paper takes advantage of two sets of data of this kind and of estimates of daily fecundability by D. Schwartz et al. and P. Royston. The two sources of information allow to test suggested rules of behaviour from three points of view applicability, reliability and acceptability. The exercise has relevance more from the point of view of the approach used than from the value of the results obtained. This is due mainly to the limits of the experience on which the application of models and derived estimates is based.
English - pp. 153-167.
B. Colombo, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Via San Francesco 33, I-35121 Padova, Italy.
colber@hal.stat.unipd.it.
(NATURAL FAMILY PLANNING, FECUNDABILITY, METHODOLOGY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS.)
*****
00.48.10 - FRANCE, John Terence.
Future developments in home biochemical tests to monitor potential fertility.
Recent technological advances in immunoassay methods have enabled the development of simple home use test systems for detecting the fertile period of the menstrual cycle. "Persona" developed by Unipath Ltd (Bedford, England) is an innovative example of these test systems. Using dipstick and immunoassay techniques, "Persona" measures oestrone glucuronide and luteinising hormone in urine and identifies the fertile period from the periovulatory changes in their levels. A reader device in which the dipstick is inserted makes the quantitative measurement and conveys the result to the user by green (non-fertile) or red (fertile) light signals. Biochemical fertility tests such as "Persona" may encourage a wider use of natural methods of fertility regulation.
English - pp. 169-176.
J. T. France, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Auckland School of Medicine, National Women's Hospital, Auckland 3, New Zealand.
j.france@auckland.ac.nz.
(NATURAL FAMILY PLANNING, TESTS, FECUNDABILITY.)
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Requirements for psychological research in natural family planning.
An anonymous questionnaire sent to 502 couples (82% response rate) showed that, whilst 66% of men and 75% of women found the Basal Body temperature method of NFP satisfactory, 20% of men and 12% of women reached orgasm during the periods of abstinence. More detailed and personal experience was obtained from a correspondence service conducted with over 10,000 user over 40 years. This recorded a wide range of both positive and negative experiences of NFP and revealed the reasons for these.
English - pp. 177-186.
J. Marchhall, University of London, 203 Robin Hood Way, London SW20 0AA, U.K.
(NATURAL FAMILY PLANNING, SURVEYS, PSYCHOLOGY.)
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00.48.12 - DALLA ZUANNA, Gianpiero; ATOH, Makoto; CASTIGLIONI, Maria; KOJIMA, Katsuhisa.
Late marriage among young people: The case of Italy and Japan.
A differential analysis is made of age at first marriage based on individual data from the 1988 Italian Multipurpose Family Survey (women born in 1924-73) and the 1992 Japanese National Fertility Survey (women born in 1942-74). Subsequently, focusing attention on cohorts born in the 1960's, geographical differences are analysed, taking as a unit of analysis the 47 Japanese prefectures and the 95 Italian provinces. By an integrated reading of the results at an individual and ecological level, we discuss differences, similarities and interpretations of late marriage in Italy and Japan.
English - pp. 187-232.
G. Dalla Zuanna, Department of Statistics, University of Messina, Messine, Italy.
(ITALY, JAPAN, AGE AT MARRIAGE, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS.)
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Transitions to adulthood among Spanish cohorts born in 1940, 1950 and 1960 [Transitions vers l'âge adulte des générations espagnoles nées en 1940, 1950 et 1960].
The article examines some intercohort changes in the passage from adolescence to adulthood. Data used comes from the 1991 Spanish Sociodemographic Survey, which includes retrospective questions on the life courses of 1940, 1950 and 1960 male and female birth-cohorts. Results show an increase in the age, at finishing school and first job through cohorts, accompanied by a trend towards convergence in behaviour of males and females. Family transitions show an earlier timing and a more heterogeneous sequencing among 1940 and 1950 cohorts, while a postponement and more uniformity in the order of transitions is observed in 1960 cohort. These differentials between birth-cohorts are interpreted as forming part of a process of individualisation.
French - pp. 233-263.
P. Baizán Muñoz, Institut de démographie, Université catholique de Louvain, 1, place Montesquieu, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
(SPAIN, ADOLESCENCE, ADULTHOOD, LIFE CYCLE, GENERATIONS, COHORT ANALYSIS.)
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00.48.14 - APRILE, Rocco; PALOMBI, Massimo.
Demographic trends and teaching staff costs: The case of Italy.
The State General Accounting Office has developed a model for projecting teaching staff. The model enables us to measure the effects of demographic scenarios and personnel policy alternatives, and can take future disequilibria explicitly into account in a calculation of permanent staff redundancies and substitute assignments. The central scenario of the national institute of statistics indicates a decline amounting to 271,000 teachers by 2045, but only a third of this will translate into effective savings in relation to GDP. Adapting the student/teacher ratio to European standards would cut the number of teachers by 200,000.
English - pp. 265-284.
R. Aprile, Ragioneria Generale dello Stato, Via F. Depero 24, I-00155 Rome, Italy.
r.aprile@mailer3.finsiel.it.
(ITALY, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, PUBLIC EDUCATION, TEACHERS, PROJECTIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS.)
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00.48.15 - UDJO, Eric Ogheneriobororue.
Trends in level and tempo of fertility in Botswana.
The notion of a sharp decline in fertility in Botswana is controversial. The results from the analysis of three sets of data suggest that the apparent decline in fertility in Botswana is exaggerated due to: (1) an overestimated total fertility rate of 7.1 in 1981; compared with, (2) underestimated total fertility rates of 5.0 and 4.2 in 1988 and 1991 respectively. Adjusted levels of fertility using the Relational Gompertz model showed that a modest decline in fertility in Botswana began after the late 1980's. Changing marriage patterns in Botswana is probably contributory to the modest decline infertility in the late 1980's.
English - pp. 285-301.
E. O. Udjo, Directorate of Analysis, Statistics South Africa, Private Bag X44, Pretoria 0001, South Africa.
ericu@statssa.pwv.gov.za.
(BOTSWANA, FERTILITY TRENDS, QUALITY OF DATA, CURVE FITTING.)
*****
Administrative archives and population studies [Archivi amministrativi e studio della popolazione].
Some countries, that are not so rich as Italy of demographic sources -- for instance that don't have a population register --, use the demographic informations, generally present in administrative data bases, to answer their need of knowledge. In times of decreasing resources and of increasing general tendency to the non-response, it is particularly clear the need to use the existing data in the best possible way. The inspection of some meaningful foreign experiences can supply with helpful starting points for the Italian situation. On the basis of these indications, a first quick discussion is carried out on the Italian sources, that could be utilized with demographic purposes.
Italian - pp. 303-316.
R. Clerici, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Largo A. Gemelli, I-20132 Milan, Italy.
rclerici@mi.unicatt.it.
(ITALY, DATA COLLECTION, PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, INFORMATION SOURCES.)
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Gender and Genus [Il genere e Genus].
The article analyses the last ten year issues of Genus from a gender perspective, conceived as a method for exploring male-female relations. 164 articles were examined; 46 were selected because gender-related. The study shows the difficulties faced with by researchers in interpreting and highlighting differences between men and women, when abandoning traditional way of thinking and data collecting. Examples taken by articles published on Genus are presented.
Italian - pp. 317-325.
R. Palomba, IRP-CNR, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione, Viale Beethoven 56, I-00144 Rome, Italy.
palomba@irp.rm.cnr.it.
(ITALY, PERIODICALS, RESEARCH, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, WOMEN'S ROLE, MEN'S ROLE.)
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00.48.18 - BILLARI, Francesco C.; ROSINA, Alessandro.
Does cohort matter in pre-transitional mortality? Analysis of adult mortality using an event history approach: The case of Chioggia in the 17th century.
The basic idea is that a baseline mortality pattern by age holds for pre-transitional populations. Specific macro-level events (famines, epidemics, wars) may by chance cause substantial deviations. Consequently, we use statistical methods which may reveal period and cohort effects, assuming constant age effects. Two different data sets on 17th Century Chioggia (Dogado of Venice), are utilised: aggregate-level period-based data for ages from 15 to 64 and individual-level cohort-based data for ages from 43 to 82. Neither analysis rejects the hypothesis of the importance of cohort effects: mortality is higher for cohorts affected by famine at an early age, while the effect of plague needs more investigation.
English - pp. 327-347.
F. C. Billari, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Via San Francesco 33, I-35121 Padua, Italy.
billari@hal.stat.unipd.it.
(ITALY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, ADULT MORTA-LITY, GENERATION EFFECT.)
*****
48 GENUS, January-June 1999, Vol. 55, N° 1-2
00.48.19 - DAS GUPTA, Prithwis.
Decomposing the difference between rates when the rate is a function of factors that are not cross-classified.
In an earlier paper in this journal (1994), the author discussed in detail the problem of decomposition of the difference between two overall rates into the effects of the underlying factors, and these factors appeared in the data in the form of a cross-classification. The present paper deals with the problem of decomposition when the rate is a function of several factors, but the data are not cross-classified. The techniques are illustrated by numerical examples, and a general program is provided for data up to ten factors.
English - pp. 9-26.
P. Das Gupta, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233, U.S.A.
prithwis.dasgupta@ccmail.census.gov.
(MATHEMATICAL DEMOGRAPHY, METHODOLOGY, GENERAL RATE.)
*****
00.48.20 - CASELLI, Graziella; REALE, Alessandra.
Does cohort analysis contribute to the study of the geography of mortality?.
This paper aims to analyse territorial differences in mortality in Italy by longitudinal analysis. Attention is focused, for males and females, on adult mortality. Mortality trends and level for the all cohorts have been very different by region and age. Analogies and differences between the "stories of mortality" could be interpreted as consequences of analogies and differences in the "life stories" according to the region of residence. Therefore, for example, the convergence of mortality levels in the Veneto and Lombardy and in the South and North could be better interpreted in light of the increasing similarity between the life histories of the different cohorts.
English - pp. 27-59.
G. Caselli, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Università degli Sudi di Roma " La Sapienza ", Via Nomentana 41, 00161 Rome, Italy.
caselli@dsd.uniroma1.it.
(ITALY, ADULT MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTA-LITY, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, METHODOLOGY.)
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00.48.21 - GOURBIN, Catherine; WUNSCH, Guillaume.
Paternal age and infant mortality.
The main objective of the study is to examine whether there is a significant association between infant mortality and age of the parents. The study is based on individual registration forms for live births and infant deaths collected in Hungary from 1984 to 1988. As suspected older women have higher infant mortality rates, but infant mortality rates increase also when the age of father increases, particularly above 35. Although statistically significant, the effect of age remains slighter than that of other characteristics such as previous foetal deaths, or induced abortions. Higher education for fathers and especially for mothers might also improve the probability of survival of the child.
English - pp. 61-72.
C. Gourbin and G. Wunsch, Institut de démographie, Université de Louvain, place Montesquieu 1/17, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
wunsch@pror.ucl.ac.be.
(HUNGARY, INFANT MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MATERNAL AGE, FATHER, AGE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, ABORTION.)
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00.48.22 - MATTHEWS, Zoe; DIAMOND, Ian.
The expanded programme on immunisation: Mortality consequences and demographic impact in developing countries.
The aims of the paper are to evaluate the mortality impact of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) by estimating lives saved, and to understand its wider demographic implications by performing ovulation projections to the year 2025. Results show that the life-saving impact of EPI campaigns in all developing regions is high, especially in countries where mortality is currently high for example in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimate that approximately 5.5 million children per year are currently being saved in the major developing countries of the world. Prolonging the life of these immunised children could add up to 4.5 years to life expectancy in some countries.
English - pp. 73-100.
Z. Matthews and I. Diamond, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 2BJ, U.K.
zm2@socsci.soton.ac.uk.
(DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, VACCINATION, PROGRAMME EVALUATION, POPULATION PROJECTIONS.)
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00.48.23 - LIEFBROER, Aat C.; HENKENS, Kène.
Labour market careers of successive cohorts of older men in the Netherlands: Changes in age at retirement and in length of working lives.
In this contribution we examine the length of the working lives of successive cohorts of older men in the Netherlands, based on data about 1894 men aged 55-90 years. The results show that men with a low level of education have longer labour market careers than the better educated, but the differences have become substantially smaller in recent decades; the differences among men with a high and men with a low level of education born in 1903 are almost twice as large as the differences among men born in 1937. This indicates that the social rate of return derived from an education has increased over the years.
English - pp. 101-119.
A. C. Liefbroer and K. Henkens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands.
liefbroer@nidi.nl; henkens@nidi.nl.
(NETHERLANDS, AGED, MEN, LENGTH OF WORKING LIFE, GENERATION EFFECT, LEVELS OF EDUCATION.)
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00.48.24 - MTURI, Akim Jasper; MAKATJANE, Tiisetso; MOLISE, Ngoakoane.
Gender differentials in housing characteristics and household possessions in Lesotho urban areas.
This study uses the 1994/95 Lesotho Household Budget Survey data. The data comprises of 2,014 households situated in Lesotho urban centres out of which 1,324 are male headed and 690 are female headed. Most of the females who are heads of household are either single or widowed or divorced. Both descriptive analysis and multiple regression analysis have been utilised. Generally, there are no substantial differences in the quality of urban housing by the sex of the household head. However, regarding the availability of consumer goods such as radio, refrigerators, cars, television etc., as well as electricity and telephone facilities, male headed households are better off than female headed households. That is, male headed households are better off economically than female headed households.
English - pp. 121-133.
A. J. Mturi, T. Makatjane and N. Molise, Department of Statistics and Demography, National University of Lesotho, P.O. Roma 180, Lesotho.
aj.mturi@nul.ls; tj.makatjane@nul.ls; nm.molise@nul.ls.
(LESOTHO, URBAN ENVIRONMENT, HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT, SEX DIFFERENTIALS.)
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48 genus, July-December 1999, Vol. 55, N° 3-4
"Fertility Issues and Trends IN LDCS AND COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION"
00.48.25 - BARKALOV, Nicholas Boris.
The fertility decline in Russia, 1989-1996: A view with period parity-progression ratios.
Period parity-prossion ratios for Russia, 1988-1996 and 1978-1979, are computed with the age-parity underlying model, while for 1979-1989 -- with a cruder indirect technique. Also obtained are, with a newly derived procedure, parity-progression ratios for 77 out of 80 Russia's territorial units referring to 1993-1994. The fertility rise of the 1980s and its steep decline in the 1990s are interpreted in terms of parity-progression evolution and the difference between the age-parity total fertility rate and the conventional one is examined. At present, Russia's parity-progression schedule is seen as clearly distinct from those of Western nations, despite fairly similar overall fertility levels, and no evidence of convergence toward the West is found. No unusual regional diversity in the parity-progression pattern is detected, with exception for certain ethnic autonomous republics. Some formal properties of the parity-progression table are also studied.
English - pp. 11-60.
N. B. Barkalov, The Development Group International Inc., 700 North Fairfax St., Suite 604, Alexandria, VA 22314-2040, U.S.A.
Nbarkalov@devgroup.com.
(RUSSIA, WESTERN EUROPE, FERTILITY DECLINE, PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO, METHODOLOGY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS.)
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00.48.26 - RETHERFORD, Robert Dennis; THAPA, Shyam.
The trend of fertility in Nepal, 1961-1995.
This article presents new estimates of fertility trends in Nepal for the period 1961-95. The estimates are derived from three national surveys -- the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey (NFS), the 1991 Nepal Fertility, Family Planning and Health Survey (NFFPHS), and the 1996 Nepal Family Health Survey (NFHS). Each survey yields a trend for the fifteen years before the survey, and the trends estimated from the 1991 NFFPHS and the 1996 NFHS overlap during some of these years. Because the data are not perfect, the trends do not coincide. Analysis of the discrepancies allows an improved assessment of the true trend infertility. The trend so obtained suggests that current fertility is somewhat higher than commonly thought, and that fertility has been declining somewhat more slowly than commonly thought. Our best estimates indicate that, between 1961 and 1995, the TFR declined from 6.10 to 4.95, with the rate of decline accelerating in recent years.
English - pp. 61-98.
R. D. Retherford, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, HI 96848-1601, U.S.A.
retherfr@ewc.hawaii.edu.
(NEPAL, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY MEASURE-MENTS, QUALITY OF DATA, ESTIMATES.)
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00.48.27 - MISHRA, Ajay Kumar; AUDINARAYANA, Hsuao Narayanayaswamy; KULKARNI, Purushottam M.
Fertility differentials by education in Uttar Pradesh, India.
Fertility histories from a large survey, the National Family Health Survey, Uttar Pradesh, have been utilised to compute period parity progression ratios (PPPRS) following the methodology proposed by Feeney and Yu (1987). The PPPRs have been calculated for the quinquennia between the years 1972 and 1991 and for the first four parities. The findings show that a decline in the PPPRs is seen only after the third and higher order births. There are notable differences in the levels and trends in the PPPRs by education. The decline is sharper for women with the higher level of education. Further, while nearly half of the population in the higher education class had begun to stop childbearing at two or three births even by 1972-76, the primary/middle school educated population reached this level only in 1987-91 and the illiterate population not even by then.
English - pp. 99-112.
A. J. Mishra, H. N. Audinarayana and P. Kulkarni, Department of Population Studies, Bharathiar University, Coimbatore 641 046, India.
popstu@bharathi.ernet.in.
(INDIA, REGIONS, FERTILITY DECLINE, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO.)
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00.48.28 - HOSSAIN, Md. Kabir; KABIR, M.
Does micro credit program in rural Bangladesh have any impact on reproductive behaviour of poor rural women?.
By collecting empirical data from rural Bangladesh, this paper provides additional evidence that credit-based participatory development programs promoted by non-government organisation lead to higher contraceptive use and smaller family size norms than those resulting from normal development and categorical family planning programs. These changes may occur even when NGOs do not provide family planning services. The findings indicate that credit-program membership may exert its effect on family size desires through its impact on women's empowerment. The logistic regression analysis suggests that predictors of current contraceptive use are BRAC membership, joint decision by husband and wife, desired family size, mobility and number of living children.
English - pp. 113-130.
M. K. Hossain and M. Kabir, Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh.
kabirh@sust.edu; kabirm@bangla.net.
(BANGLADESH, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, CREDIT, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, WOMEN IN DEVELOPMENT, PROGRAMME EVALUATION.)
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00.48.29 - KULCZYCKI, Andrzej; SAXENA, Prem C.
New evidence on fertility transition through wartime in Lebanon.
This paper analyses the levels and trends of fertility over the past five decades for Lebanon, through national and sub-national estimates. The article uses the 1996 Population and Housing Survey, the largest demographic data set for Lebanon since the 1932 census. In 1996, total fertility rates at the governorate level stood as high as 4.0 in North Lebanon and as low as 2.0 in Beirut, unlike in other Arab countries. Cohort fertility rates ranged from 3.74 in Beirut to 5.86 in Bekaa for women born in 1947-51. The disparities in fertility are even more striking at the district level and have widened over time. In the aggregate, fertility decline does not appear to have been significantly interrupted by the hostilities from 1975 to 1991.
English - pp. 131-152.
A. Kulczyncki and P. C. Saxena, Department of Population Studies, American University of Beirut, Bliss Street, P.O. Box 11-0236, Beirut, Lebanon.
andrzej@aub.edu.lb; psaxena@aub.edu.lb.
(LEBANON, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY DECLINE, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, WAR.)
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The Kenyan fertility transition: An age-parity specific analysis of fertility levels and trends.
This study explores the course and age-parity structure of fertility decline in Kenya. The study utilizes pooled data from the 1988 and 1993 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys. By using parity progression ratios and conditional age-parity specific birth probabilities, it provides a clear picture of the dynamics of the fertility decline that is under way in Kenya. It can be argued that the observed fertility decline is not only a timing effect but is also due to a true decline in the number of children various age cohorts of Kenyan women have been having. In the early and middle ages of reproduction, we see important tendencies toward the delay of the first birth and the lowering of middle and higher order births. Together, these changes are producing dramatic declines in period fertility.
English - pp. 153-194.
A. Sibanda, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298, U.S.A.
sibandaa@pop.upenn.edu.
(KENYA, FERTILITY DECLINE, PARITY, PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO.)
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00.48.31 - CERONE, Pietro; GUNADI.
Stable population theory with time varying immigration.
The current paper develops models of migration and shows the effect on the ensuing local population. The Sharpe-Lotka single sex deterministic model is used as the basis for the analysis together with the traditional Laplace transform methodology for its solution. We develop a number of simple theoretical models of all immigration varying over time, in order to overcome the hypothesis of constant migratory flows underlying past literature on the subject. In particular, a model is being developed to take account of gradually reduced differences in the fertility behaviour between the immigrant and the local population. The problem of determining the absolute immigration levels needed to approach a given future population is also discussed.
English - pp. 195-214.
P. Cerone, Mathematical Sciences, School of Communications and Informatics, Victoria University of Technology, P.O. Box 14428, MCMC Melbourne, Victoria 8001, Australia.
pc@matilda.vu.edu.au; uniga@indo.net.id.
(POPULATION THEORY, METHODOLOGY, THEORETICAL MODELS, STABLE POPULATION, IMMIGRATION.)
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