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43 ZEITSCHRIFT FÜR BEVÖLKERUNGSWISSENCHAFT, 1998, VOL. 23, N° 3
Demographic knowledge and political responsibility. Considerations concerning population development in Germany in the 21st century [Demographisches Wissen und politische Verantwortung. Überlegungen zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung Deutschlands im 21. Jahrhundert].
The article deals with the question as to why the current state of knowledge and the general awareness as far as the interdependence of the demographic and social problems in Germany are concerned are unsatisfactory and why politics does not meet its obligations of informing the public of the demographic development in detail. The urgency of providing objective information on the demographic facts and trends is explained on the basis of demographic projections for 21st-century Germany. These projections are not apodictic predictions or prognoses, but "If-then-statements" concerning the future, ie. statements and arguments which can be verified, discussed and criticized. It is shown that demography and democracy are closely connected to each other and that a democracy which does justice to its responsibility for the living conditions of the coming generations which are determined by the demographic development cannot make population politics taboo by pointing to the abuse of demography which took place during the National Socialist period. The thesis of this article is that population politics - especially family politics, migration politics and integration politics - is not only in agreement with the aims of our democratic society but is urgently required in order to achieve such aims.
German - pp. 221-251.
H. Birg, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik der Universität Bielefeld, Postfach 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany.
(GERMANY, POPULATION DYNAMICS, LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS, POPULATION POLICY, INFORMATION, DEMOCRACY.)
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The calculation of total remarriage rates for divorced persons - problems, methods and results [Die Berechnung zusammengefaßter Wiederverheiratungsziffern Geschiedener - Probleme, Berechnungsverfahren und Ergebnisse].
Due to the data available, total remarriage rates for divorced persons in Germany cannot be directly calculated but must be determined with the help of estimation procedures. The methods used for this purpose are described in this article and their results are compared. What is critically examined is in particular the procedure used by the Federal Institute for Population Research. This is mainly based on weighting the remarriage intensity depending on the time which has expired since the divorce. The weighting pattern which was used in the past was examined for its validity in a comparison which was made with the situation in Switzerland where the actual period which expires between divorce and remarriage is used. After the analyses had been carried out, the author reached the conclusion that it was necessary to update the weighting system. This was carried out on the basis of the Swiss data from the years 1990-1996. The total remarriage rates were then recalculated.
German - pp. 253-262.
J. Dorbritz, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, Postfach 5528, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany.
(GERMANY, DIVORCE, REMARRIAGE, METHODOLOGY, ESTIMATES, MEASUREMENT.)
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The widening differentials in adult mortality by socioeconomic status and their causes [Die Vergrößerung der sozioökonomischen Unterschiede in der Erwachsenenmortalität durch Status und deren Ursachen].
The main purpose of the article is to review and assess research results describing changes in socioeconomic differentials in adult mortality since the 1970s in developed countries, excluding transitional economics. The article first discusses data sources and methods of measurement. It concludes that there exists no single valid method for measuring changes in mortality differences, and conclusions concerning the widening or narrowing of differences may depend on the method of measurement chosen.
Socioeconomic differentials in mortality are substantial in all countries and should be a major concern for health and social policies. Data on, changes are available for England and Wales, four Nordic countries, Spain and the United States. In these countries relative socioeconomic differences in mortality have increased among working-age men in the 1980s. The increase has been mainly due to the more rapid decline of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the upper than lower socioeconomic groups. Other causes of death than cardiovascular diseases have also contributed to the growth of differentials, but there is no such cross-country uniformity in patterns of change as in the case of cardiovascular diseases.
German - pp. 263-292.
T. Valkonen, University of Helsinki, P. O. Box 18, 00014 Helsinki, Finland.
(ADULT MORTALITY, MORTALITY TRENDS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS, CAUSES OF DEATH.)
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00.43.4 - HEIGL, Andreas; MAI, Ralf.
Demographic ageing within the EU regions. [Demographische Alterung in den Regionen der EU].
The article deals with the demographic ageing phenomenon on a regional level within the European Union. A comparative longitudinal analysis of the period between 1995 and 2025 is taken as the basis for determining the course of demographic ageing, which regional patterns crystalize and the extent to which these regional patterns can be summarized and classified.
The results show that while there are differences in the extent and regional pattern of ageing the trend of progressive ageing continues everywhere. In most cases, this is combined with increased demographic disparities within the various countries. Our results appear to indicate that the reason for this disparity is less the settlement structure (type of region, population density) and has more to do with the fertility level within the individual regions. The differences in the population structure are mainly of interest as far as country, regional and urban planning is concerned, the existing knowledge and results can therefore provide European regional planning with a demographic framework for orientation and serve as a type of "regional early warning system".
German - pp. 293-317.
A. Heigl and R. Mai, Lehrstuhl für Bevölkerungs-wissenschaft, Universität Bamberg, Hornthalstrasse 2, 96045 Bamberg, Germany.
(EUROPE, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS.)
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Marriages with and divorces from foreigners in Germany [Eheschließungen und Ehescheidungen von und mit Ausländern in Deutschland].
With the growing number of foreigners who live in Germany, their integration is becoming a sociopolitical requirement. In order to gain a better understanding of how foreigners live in Germany statistical analyses of their demographic development and processes are necessary. In this article, the nuptiality -- broken down by age and marital status -- and the divorce frequency of Germans and foreigners in Germany are dealt with in more depth than was previously the case in the pertinent literature. This was then analysed and compared with each other. In addition, the question as to which nationalities are preferred by the women or men in binational marriages and also which marriages - "pure" German, "pure" foreign or binational - are especially affected by divorces.
The main results of these statistical analyses are firstly that foreign men and women are generally younger than German men and women when they marry in Germany and secondly that more binational marriages are divorced than other types of marriage.
German - pp. 319-334.
J. Roloff, Budesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, Postfach 5528, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany.
(GERMANY, FOREIGNERS, MIXED MARRIAGE, DIVORCE.)
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