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99 DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

1999, Vol. 1, N° 1 to 5

The complete text is only availabe on internet: http://www.demographic-research.org

99.99.1 - KANNISTO, Väinö; TURPEINEN, Oiva; NIEMINEN, Mauri.

Finnish life tables since 1751.

A recently completed series of life tables from 1751 to 1995 is used for identifying four stages of mortality transition in Finland, separated by the years 1880, 1945 and 1970. The cyclical fluctuation of the death rate in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries is measured and examined in relation to epidemics, famines and wars. Important permanent changes in mortality also took place in this early period. Each of the successive stages of transition produced its own characteristic pattern of mortality change which contrasted with those of the other stages. Finally, the age profile of the years added to life is drawn to illustrate the end result of each stage of mortality transition.

English - N° 1.

V. Kannisto, Campo Grande 1, 6-D, P-1700-086 Lisbon, Portugal.

Mauri.Nieminen@stat.fi.

(FINLAND, HISTORY, MORTALITY TRENDS, LIFE TABLES, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION)

99.99.2 - PARNELL, Allan M.; OWENS, Cynthia R.

Evaluation of U.S. mortality patterns at old ages using the Medicare enrollment data base.

We evaluate the consistency of age-specific mortality patterns for older Americans using the Health Care Financing Administration's (HCFA's) Medicare Enrollment Data Base (EDB), a data set that includes over 30 million records. To do this, we compare the mortality curves across regions within race and sex groups, and we compare national mortality curves of white men and women relative to African American and Puerto Rican men and women. The Medicare EDB is a promising source of age-specific mortality data at oldest ages. Both the period and cohort age at death data for whites in the Medicare EDB appear to be very consistent, at least up to age 95, perhaps higher for women. Above age 100 the patterns become extremely inconsistent. However, questions remain about the age-specific mortality patterns of African Americans, especially the rates for men. The African-American mortality crossover is found in every period and cohort comparison of the national population. This crossover pattern is remarkably consistent, occurring at ages 85 or 86 in every cohort and period comparison. This data set is not sufficient to determine whether the African -American mortality crossover is real or due to age misreporting. And the considerable inconsistency across regions also creates concern about these data. When aggregated at the national level, the mortality curves for African American women may be okay up to age 90. In general, we conclude that further examination of the African American data is necessary before using them for substantive analysis.

English - N° 2.

A. M. Parnell, McMillan and Moss Research, Inc., Mebane, NC, U.S.A.

mcmoss@mindspring.com; owens@pps.pubpol.duke.edu.

(UNITED STATES, AGED, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, QUALITY OF DATA, DATA BANKS)

99.99.3 - DOBLHAMMER, Gabriele.

Longevity and month of birth: Evidence from Austria and Denmark.

This article shows that in two European countries, Austria and Denmark, a person's life span correlates with his or her month of birth. It presents evidence that this pattern is not the result of the seasonal distribution of death. It also shows that the seasonal pattern in longevity cannot be explained by the so-called "birthday effect"- the alleged tendency of people to die shortly after their birthday. The article concludes with a discussion of possible social and biological mechanisms related to a person's season of birth that might influence life expectancy.

English - N° 3.

G. Doblhammer, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.

doblhammer@demogr.mpg.de.

(AUSTRIA, DENMARK, LIFE SPAN, DATE OF BIRTH, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS)

99.99.4 - GAVRILOVA, Natalia S.; GAVRILOV, Leonid A.

Data resources for biodemographic studies on familial clustering of human longevity.

The main cause that hampered many previous biodemographic studies of human longevity is the lack of appropriate data. At the same time, many existing data resources (millions of genealogical records) are under-utilized, because their very existence is not widely known, let alone the quality and scientific value of these data sets are not yet validated. The purpose of this work is to review the data resources that could be used in familial studies of human longevity. This is an extended and supplemented version of the previous study made by the authors upon the request of the National Institute on Aging (1998 NIH Professional Service Contract). The review describes: (1) data resources developed for biodemographic studies, (2) data collected in the projects on historical demography, (3) data resources for long lived individuals and their families, (4) publicly available computerized genealogical data resources, (5) published genealogical and family history data. The review also contains the description of databases developed by the participants of the Research Workshops "Genes, Genealogies, and Longevity" organized by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

English - N° 4.

N. S. Gavrilova and L. A. Gavrilov, Center on Aging, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.

nsgavril@midway.uchicago.edu.

(LIFE SPAN, DATA BANKS, DATA COLLECTION, INFORMATION SOURCES, GENEALOGY, FAMILY DEMOGRAPHY)

99.99.5 - SCHMERTMANN, Carl P.; JUNQUEIRA CAETANO, André.

Estimating parametric fertility models with open birth interval data.

In the past thirty years, more than 100 censuses gathered fertility data through questions on women's date of last birth. The standard "births last year" (BLY) approach for such data truncates timing information, using binary indicators for births in the prior year only. The first author recently proposed consistent, maximum-likelihood estimation approaches using untruncated date of last birth (DLB). In this paper we extend DLB techniques to parametric models. We construct estimators for Coale-Trussell M and m parameters from open interval lengths. We apply the new procedure to Brazilian census data, producing maps and spatial statistics for BLY and DLB m estimates in 723 municipalities in Minas Gerais. DLB estimators are less sensitive to sampling error than BLY estimators. This increased precision leads to clearer spatial patterns of fertility control, and to improved regression.

English - N° 5.

C. P. Schmertmann, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, U.S.A.

schmertmann@fsu.edu; caetano@prc.utexas.edu.

(BRAZIL, METHODOLOGY, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, BIRTH INTERVALS, MODELS)

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