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98 REVIEW OF POPULATION
AND SOCIAL POLICY
1998, N° 7
The supply of manpower for care services from the viewpoint of care insurance.
This essay focuses on the supply of manpower that will be needed to provide care services to our elderly population (hereafter called "seniors") through insurance that soon will be available for that purpose. Most of the research on this topic deals with the financial base for the care itself, very little examines the issue from the perspective of manpower supply. The concerns are threefold. First, research indicates that, in sixteen countries studied, the financing necessary for supplying the manpower to assist the aging increased in the 1980s but dropped in the early 1990s due to budgetary deficits. Second, the Council on Health and Welfare for the Aged (CHWA) has underestimated the number of elderly people who will need this support, and there are some contradictions in the fundamental preparations for elderly care. And third, by means of regression analysis using data from 47 prefectures, we have found that there is an extreme shortage of home helpers in various regions. Given the absolute shortage of manpower in about 3,300 municipalities, we must push for administrative policies that will build a cooperative organization for the delivery of care services to alleviate the manpower deficiency.
English - pp. 15-43.
E. Shinotsuka, Policy Board, Bank of Japan, Japan.
(JAPAN, AGED, AID PROGRAMMES, INSURANCE, MANPOWER NEEDS)
99.98.2 - KIERNAN, Kathleen E.
Parenthood and family life in the United Kingdom.
Within the context of'Europe, the United Kingdom has had one of the highest and most consistent total fertility rates over the last twenty years. This paper examines the demographic, policy and cultural dimensions that may form part of the explanation for this relatively high level of fertility. The demographic impetuses identified include the comparatively youthful pattern of childbearing and more importantly the strong adherence to a two-child norm. The paper reviews economic activity patterns, childcare and parental leave provision, attitudes toward mothers working and toward family life more generally, as well as the division of labor in the home. It highlights how in the absence of state support for childcare, families in Britain have reached there own pragmatic solutions to combining work and family life, which has at its core mothers working part-time and the family (including grandparents) being the chief providers of childcare.
English - pp. 63-81.
K. E. Kiernan, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, U.K.
(UNITED KINGDOM, FERTILITY, FAMILY LIFE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)
99.98.3 - CHESNAIS, Jean-Claude.
Below-replacement fertility in the European Union (EU-15): Facts and policies, 1960-1997.
Throughout the developed world the total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped well below the replacement level. The theory of demographic transition has to be reconsidered: post-transitional societies will face a permanent disequilibrium (hyperaging and ultimate population implosion). The basic paradigm has reversed: in the past, there was a large proportion of unwanted pregnancies and f'amily planning programs were designed to reduce them; now, in post-industrial contexts, the opposite is true. Many desired pregnancies do not occur; in the European Union, for example, the TFR is 1.4 whereas the desired number of children is 2.1. Thus, there is a latent demand for family support. In countries where family support is better (like those in Scandinavia), the gap between the ideal and the real family size is narrow, whereas in societies where family support is minimal (as in sexist societies such as Germany, Italy, and Spain), this gap is maximal. This is the essence of the present feminist paradox: feminism and pronatalism work together; in societies that alleviate the burden of working -- or potentially working -- mothers, the fertility rate is higher than in societies where traditional roles prevail. Two basic measures have a decisive impact: the implementation of parental leave and the allocation of pension benefits to parents for each child. Both of these measures tend to alleviate the cost of child care for the mother and the family and to reduce the main obstacles to childbearing.
English - pp. 83-101.
J.-C. Chesnais, Institut National d'Études Démographiques, Paris, France.
(WESTERN EUROPE, HISTORY, BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, PRONATALIST POLICY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)
The declining birthrate: Whose problem?
This paper argues that the decline in the Japanese total fertility rate was caused mainly by the rise in the unmarried population. Possible explanations are late marriages, high educational expenditures and housing costs, women's higher education and increased participation in the workforce, and a change in cultural values. The fertility rate among married women has remained at the replacement level for the last few decades, and the number of illegitimate births is almost negligible. Although fertility rates in most advanced countries show a conversion below the replacement level, the small differences have to be explained. It is difficult to measure the impact of family policies, but the high level of privatization of reproductive costs and the low value assigned to care work can be seen as signs of a child-unfriendly society. If an individual couple makes a voluntary decision to have fewer children, on the other hand, the low fertility rate may not constitute a problem.
English - pp. 103-128.
C. Ueno, Graduate School of Humanities and Sociology, The University of Tokyo, Japan.
(JAPAN, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, NUPTIALITY, MARRIAGE POSTPONEMENT)
The economic factors for the declinig birth rate.
This paper examines economic factors affecting the declining ferlity rate in Japan. A major cause of this continuous decline is the increasing participation participation of women in the labor force. This, in turn, increases the opportunity costs of having children for a family. These opportunity costs are closely related to the scarcity of full-time jobs for women due to the fixed employment practices of major Japanese companies. A crucial policy for stabilizing the fertility rate is to reduce the opportunity costs of women by increasing child-care services and promoting the creation of jobs for those who are beyond the child-rearing age.
English - pp. 129-144.
N. Yashiro, Institute of International Relations, Sophia University.
(JAPAN, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT POLICY)
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