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48 GENUS
January-June 1998, Vol. 54, N° 1-2
Regional dimension of international migration in Central and Eastern Europe.
Major trends concerning international movements of the population in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are depicted. In the 1990s, CEE has significantly contributed to the magnitude and diversity of global movements of the population, in a striking contrast to what observed in pre-transition period. Transforming and already rapidly growing economies of CEE have become a magnet for many migrants from outside of the region. Their inflow, combined with remarkably elevated intra-regional mobility of the population of CEE countries seems to fully justify recent references to the region as a new migration pole on the global scale. On the other hand, the diversification of political and economic developments in particular countries of the region led to the emergence of clear sub-regional migration poles within CEE.
English - pp. 11-36.
M. Okólski, Faculty of Economics, Institute for Social Studies, University of Warsaw, Stawki 5/7, PL-00-183 Warsaw, Poland.
moko@samba.iss.uw.edu.pl
(EASTERN EUROPE, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION TRENDS)
99.48.2 - NAMBOODIRI, Krishnan; WEI, Luying.
Fertility theories and their implications regarding how low can low fertility be.
Most of the macro-level theories and frameworks of fertility do change, contrary to the micro-level ones, add the question of how low can low fertility be, at the aggregate level. Many of the micro-level frameworks imply a micro-level fertility floor of zero, which makes sense if by floor one means a level below which no one would remain. It makes sense on substantive grounds too: for example, even in societies where social norms prescribe a minimum family size, there may be individuals or couples who deviate from the norms. If, however, one defines a micro-level floor as one below which few (rather than any) would voluntarily choose to remain, then it would be attractive to consider a floor that varies across societies in accordance with parameters such as the level of modernisation.
English - pp. 37-55.
K. Namboodiri et L. Wei, Department of Sociology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, U.S.A.
kkn@ohstsoca.sbs.ohio-state.edu.
(POPULATION THEORY, THEORETICAL MODELS, FERTILITY TRENDS)
99.48.3 - SÁNCHEZ, Jesús Javier.
Mortality and the fertility transition in rural Navarre (Spain).
The reduction of infant and juvenile mortality has often been stated as a decisive factor in explaining the decline of marital fertility. Many studies that have tried to analyse the relation between mortality and fertility have focused exclusively on infant mortality, and yet we believe that couples do not seek "births" but rather children who will survive until the adult age. We consider very important what the probability of survival until maturity has been in different years in Navarre. The increase in life expectancy at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th presents itself as the major cause for the descent in the average number of children per married woman in Navarre. The data obtained in 36 municipalities of this Spanish province leave little room for doubt about the influence that mortality had on the "first" fertility transition.
English - pp. 57-75.
J. J. Sánchez, Departamento de Sociología, Universidad Pública de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadía s.n., 31006 Pamplona, Spain.
jesus.sbarricarte@unpa.es
(SPAIN, PROVINCES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DECLINE, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)
99.48.4 - PARR, Nicholas John.
Changes in the factors affecting fertility in Ghana during the early stages of the fertility decline.
A substantial decline in fertility levels in Ghana has occurred since the mid 1980s. This study uses data from the 1988 and the 1993 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys to analyse the changing importance both of the proximate determinants of fertility and of demographic, socio-economic, cultural, and local factors affecting fertility in this West African country. The rising level of contraceptive use is found to be the main proximate cause of the decline in fertility. A woman's age, education, religion, place of residence and child mortality experience are found to be important factors affecting fertility indirectly. The most significant change in Ghanaian fertility has been the decline in fertility in urban areas outside the Greater Accra region.
English - pp. 77-86.
N. J. Parr, Demographic Research Group, School of Economic and Financial Studies, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.
nparr@efs.mq.edu.au.
(GHANA, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, INTERMEDIATE VARIABLES, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE)
An APC analysis of demographic responses to population policy measures: The case of the Czech and Slovak Republics, 1960-1990.
The age-period-cohort framework is applied to analyse Czech and Slovak fertility and abortion rates. Using an approach proposed by Willekens and Baydar (1984), behavioural responses to changes in abortion law implemented inn 1957 and 1986 are examined in more detail. The results indicate that lack of awareness of age, period, and cohort dimensions of fertility and abortion can distort one's interpretation of observed time-trends, and lead to erroneous conclusions about effects of changing abortion policies on demographic behaviour.
English - pp. 87-121.
L. Stloukal, Institute of Population Studies, University of Exeter, Hooper House, 101 Pennsylvania Rp., Exeter, EX4 6DT, U.K.
ips.director@exeter.ac.uk.
(CZECH REPUBLIC, SLOVAKIA, FERTILITY TRENDS, ABORTION, ABORTION POLICY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)
99.48.6 - WANG, Zhenglian; ZENG, Yi; JEUNE, Bernard; VAUPEL, James W.
Age validation of Han Chinese centenarians.
Based on a set of solid measures computed from the 1990 census data and the age validation procedures conducted in Hangzhou, Beijing andn Chengdu surveys, this paper shows that the Han Chinese centenarians' age reporting are in general good, because Han Chinese people used to remember their birth dates. Age-reporting of the super centenarians are very rare so that a small number of them who exaggerate their ages can result in a substantial distortion of data quality at these highest ages.
English - pp. 123-141.
Z. Wang, Yi Zeng and J. W. Vaupel, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Str. 114, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.
wang@demogr.mpg.de; zengyi@demogr.mpg.de;
B-Jeune@win-chs.ou.dk; jwv@demogr.mpg.de.
(CHINA, CENTENARIANS, AGE REPORTING, QUALITY OF DATA)
99.48.7 - MANDA, Samuel Osmond Makandi.
Unobserved family and village effects on infant mortality in Malawi.
A three level variance components model is used to investigate the importance and magnitude of family and community random effects on infant mortality in Malawi. The results show that only the family random effect is significant in determining infant mortality, even in the presence of controls for a number of observed individual and family characteristics. The results also show that biodemographic and to a lesser extent socio-demographic factors are important determinants of infant mortality. However, the adverse effects of a prior death and a short preceding interval are magnified in the absence for controls for unobserved family random effect.
English - pp. 143-164.
S. O. M. Manda, Statistics Department, University of Waikato, P/B 31 05, Hamilton, New Zealand.
somm@hoiho.math.waikato.ac.nz.
(MALAWI, INFANT MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, FAMILY ENVIRONMENT)
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