Back to Home page
17 POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW
June 1998, Vol. 24, N° 2
Family ties in Western Europe: Persistent contrasts.
In the Western world it is not difficult to identify areas where families and family ties are relatively "strong" and others where they are relatively "weak." There are regions where traditionally the family group has had priority over the individual, and others where the opposite has tended to happen, with the individual and individual values having priority over everything else. The geography of these family systems suggests that the center and northern part of Europe, together with North American society, has been characterized by relatively weak family links, and the Mediterranean region by strong family ties. There are indications that these differences have deep historical roots and may well have characterized the European family for centuries. There is little to suggest that they are diminishing today in any fundamental manner. The way in which the relationship between the family group and its members manifests itself has implications for the way society itself functions. Politicians and public planners would do well to consider the nature of existing family systems when designing certain social policies.
English - pp. 203-234.
D. S. Reher, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociología, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain.
(WESTERN EUROPE, FAMILY, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS, SOCIAL SYSTEM, CULTURE)
Communism, poverty, and demographic change in North Vietnam.
North Vietnam has for several decades had moderate mortality and moderate fertility at a very low level of income. This pattern emerged during the communist period of the 1950s to 1970s. The communist-era institutions were the fundamental cause of the economic stagnation, but they were well suited to delivering primary health care, and they encouraged better-off families to limit their childbearing. During the 1980s and 1990s the communist economic institutions disintegrated, and Vietnam's political and economic systems came increasingly to resemble those of its authoritarian capitalist neighbors. Incomes have risen quickly, from a low base, and mortality and fertility have continued to decline. The new institutions have delivered rapid economic growth but are not so well suited to providing primary health care; declining efficiency in the health sector appears, however, to have been offset by increases in available resources. The new institutions, like the old, encourage limited childbearing, and the government has developed an extensive birth control program.
English - pp. 235-269.
J. Bryant, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Khon Kaen University, Thailand.
(VIET NAM, POLITICAL SYSTEMS, ECONOMIC SYSTEMS, HEALTH POLICY, FERTILITY DECLINE, MORTALITY DECLINE, INCOME)
99.17.9 - BONGAARTS, John; FEENEY, Griffith.
On the quantum and tempo of fertility.
Demographers have known since the 1940s that standard measures of period fertility, such as the widely used total fertility rate, are distorted by changes in the timing of childbearing. Period fertility rates are depressed during years in which women delay childbearing and inflated in years when childbearing is accelerated. This distortion is usually ignored because there has been no generally accepted method correcting for it. This study proposes a method for removing the distortions caused by tempo changes from the total fertility rate. The key assumption of the method is that period effects, rather than cohort effects, are the primary force in fertility change, an assumption supported by past research. An application of the adjustment procedure to fertility trends in the United States shows that concern over below-replacement fertility in the past 25 years has been largely misplaced. Without the distortion induced by the rising age at childbearing, the underlying level of fertility was essentially constant at close to two children per woman throughout this period. That conventionally measured fertility in Taiwan was below replacement since the mid-1980s is also largely attributable to tempo effects.
English - pp. 271-291.
J. Bongaarts, Policy Research Division, Population Council, New York, U.S.A.
(DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, METHODOLOGY, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, PERIOD ANALYSIS, BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY)
99.17.10 - RENDALL, Michael S.; BAHCHIEVA, Raisa A.
An old-age security motive for fertility in the United States?.
The old-age security motive for fertility is conventionally associated with developing countries, where the mechanisms of public and private-market provision for the wellbeing of the elderly are inadequate or uncertain. The present study argues for its continued relevance for developed countries. Examination of the poverty rates among the unmarried elderly in the United States uncovers substantial poverty alleviation through the financial and functional assistance of coresident family members. The period examined is the mid-1980s, immediately after the decline of official elderly poverty rates following successive expansions of the Social Security program. An alternative set of poverty measures assuming no financial or functional assistance by coresident family members, and adjusting for additional household labor resources required by functionally impaired elderly persons, is estimated for the unmarried US elderly population. These measures are then compared to poverty measures based on observed household structure and functional assistance to assess the contribution to poverty alleviation of coresident family members. Almost twice as many unmarried elderly, and three times as many disabled unmarried elderly, would be classified as poor without coresident family economic and functional assistance. The old-age security motive is discussed as a potential explanation for differential fertility according to socioeconomic status, and as a factor to consider with regard to the effects of future changes in social support programs for the elderly.
English - pp. 293-307.
M. S. Rendall, Department of Sociology, Pennsylvania State University, Philadelphia, U.S.A.
(UNITED STATES, POVERTY, AGED, METHODOLOGY, CELIBACY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, SOCIAL SECURITY)
99.17.11 - McNICOLL, Geoffrey.
Malthus for the twenty-first century.
Should Malthus be retired, the alarms set out in his Essay on Population (first published 200 years ago) having been noted and acted upon, even though belatedly and by "vice" rather than prudence? Arguably no: much of his thinking retains current relevance, both where it seems on target and where it is blinkered. Examples are Malthus on the state and society, on distribution, and on nature. Civil and political liberty and a fairly minimalist state (public education favored, social security not) was his recipe for prosperity--still relevant for today's impoverished states and predatory regimes. The notorious 1803 passage on "nature's feast" might find echoes in the present international system. And Malthus's treatment of the exploitation of nature as an economic not an aesthetic or ethical matter has many modern parallels. In an Essay transposed to the present, just as Malthus paid little attention to the stirrings of industrial revolution in his time, we may ourselves be blind to the social, technological, and environmental forces that will shape the economic and demographic course of the next century.
English - pp. 309-316.
G. McNicoll, Policy Research Division, Population Council, New York, U.S.A.
(MALTHUSIAN THEORY, STATE, NEW INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER)
Julian Simon and the population growth debate.
This note discusses Julian Simon's contribution to the population debate. While Simon, who died on 8 February 1998, is best known for his arguments supporting the thesis that the net impact of population growth is positive, his lasting contribution is most likely to be methodological: his championing of revisionism in the study of the economic consequences of population change by distinguishing direct and indirect effects and short-run and long-run impacts. The author also argues that Simon does not convincingly identify the mechanisms by which the main long-run benefits of population growth occur and notes that the weight of current empirical evidence suggests that a slowing of rapid population growth is likely to be advantageous for development, especially in poor, agrarian societies.
English - pp. 317-327.
D. A. Ahlburg, Center for Population Analysis and Policy, University of Minnesota, U.S.A.
(POPULATION THEORY, POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT)
99.17.13 - POLLARD, Michael S.; WU, Zheng.
Divergence of marriage patterns in Quebec and elsewhere in Canada.
Within the last 20 years the declines in marriage rates and prevalence have been significantly greater for Quebec than for the rest of Canada. This analysis examines the divergence of Canadian marriage patterns using ideational theory, which suggests that region itself, as a proxy for cultural setting and normative code, is a significant determinant of the marriage process. The effects of economic factors, in addition to region and other cultural markers, are examined using discrete-time event history methods. The findings suggest that factors identified by standard economic models are insufficient but nonredundant in explaining the regional differentials. There was little decline in the effect of region after controlling for a wide range of background and other characteristics. Further analysis indicates that unmarried Quebec women place less importance on marriage, but greater importance on lasting relationships, than do other unmarried Canadian women, highlighting the role of cohabitation in Canadian union formation.
English - pp. 329-356.
M. S. Pollard et Z. Wu, Department of Sociology, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada.
(CANADA, PROVINCES, NUPTIALITY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY)
99.17.14 - WILS, Annababette; GOUJON, Anne.
Diffusion of education in six world regions, 1960-90.
Education has been found to be related to fertility and hence population growth; to the status of women; and to labor force skills. Therefore, education is a central issue for development, and it is important to understand the dynamics of education diffusion throughout populations during development. This note analyzes trends in school enrollment and adult education achievement for six world regions, 196090. There has been an enormous global increase in both measures of education. Gaps between male and female enrollment remain, and the gap is larger at lower levels of education. As enrollment rates increase and the average level of adult education rises, the gender gap narrows considerably.
English - pp. 357-368.
A. Wils, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, U.S.A.
(LEVELS OF EDUCATION, ENROLMENT RATE, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)
&
17 POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW
September 1998, Vol. 24, N° 3
International migration 1965-96: An overview.
Various measures of international migration are used to discuss trends since 1965. Estimates of the migrant stock in each country of the world for 1965 and 1990 are used to assess changes at the global level. For developed countries, flow statistics permit the analysis of trends in South-to-North and East-to-West migration over 196596. Analysis of trends in other world regions is made on the basis of less comprehensive data. Labor migration to Western Asia and the Pacific Rim is assessed using statistics on contract clearances issued by sending countries. Data compiled by UNHCR are used to evaluate trends in forced migration. The resulting overview captures both the continuity and change exhibited by migration trends since 1965.
English - pp. 429-468.
H. Zlotnik, Mortality and Migration Section, Population Division, United Nations, New York, U.S.A.
(WORLD, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, STATISTICAL DATA, ESTIMATES)
99.17.16 - JOHNSON, Kay; BANGHAN, Huang; LIYAO, Wang.
Infant abandonment and adoption in China.
This article reports the findings of a research project conducted in 199596 on infant abandonment and adoption in China. These two practices were found to be closely linked. Restrictive birth planning policies combined with parents' perceived need for a son produce patterns of abandonment that primarily affect higher-parity daughters in sonless families. A lesser, but nonetheless strong desire for daughters among daughterless families leads to adoption as a means to remedy this situation as well as a means to overcome childlessness. These aspects of contemporary Chinese culture--the desire for daughters and the willingness to adopt unrelated children as a method of family construction--have helped alleviate the ill effects of increased infant abandonment in the 1980s and 1990s by leading many families to adopt foundlings. Because government laws and regulations discriminate in various ways against foundlings and over-quota children, and punish the parents who raise them, much of this popular solution to a difficult social problem has taken place outside of official channels and institutions. There is hope that legal changes may soon alter this situation.
English - pp. 469-510.
K. Johnson, Asian Studies and Politics, Hampshire College, U.K.
(CHINA, ABANDONED CHILDREN, ADOPTION, TRENDS, ANTINATALIST POLICY, SEX PREFERENCE)
Population statistics, the Holocaust, and the Nuremberg trials.
Drawing on a variety of sources, the article examines how population statistics were used by the Nazis in planning and implementing the Holocaust and how the data systems that gathered these statistics and other information were also employed to assist in carrying out the Holocaust. This review covers experience in Germany, Poland, France, the Netherlands, and Norway. Attention is also given to the role played in this work by some of those then professionally active in demography and statistics. The use and impact of perpetrator-generated Holocaust mortality data and other estimates of Jewish losses presented at the Nuremberg trials are then described. Finally, present-day implications of the historical experience under review are discussed. These include: the lessons for formulating prudent national statistical policies, approaches to investigating future genocides and prosecuting those believed responsible, and the need for increased attention by statisticians and demographers to the ethical dimensions of their work.
English - pp. 511-552.
W. Seltzer, Institute for Social Research, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Fordham University, U.K.
(GERMANY, JEWS, GENOCIDE, DATA COLLECTION, QUALITY OF DATA, ETHICS)
99.17.18 - HUMMER, Robert A.; ROGERS, Richard G.; EBERSTEIN, Isaac W.
Sociodemographic differentials in adult mortality: A review of analytic approaches.
Sociodemographic differences in US adult mortality, although increasingly better documented, remain poorly understood. Differential mortality studies often adopt descriptive approaches that are narrow in scope and conceptually ambiguous. Following a discussion of the conventional approaches used to analyze differentials in adult mortality, the authors pose a series of questions aimed at encouraging research on differential mortality along new, causally pertinent directions. These include the modeling of differential mortality in a proximate determinants perspective, the incorporation of time into differential mortality models, the inclusion of more refined outcome measures, and the use of a macro-level perspective to better understand mortality differentials. Examples of recent studies expanding in these directions are briefly described.
English - pp. 553-578.
R. A. Hummer, Population Research Center, University of Texas-Austin, U.S.A.
(UNITED STATES, METHODOLOGY, ADULT MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)
Population policy in the age of fascism: Observations on recent literature.
This essay explores generally the literature on population and policy in interwar Western Europe that has emerged in the past 15 years or so and considers in depth several dealing with the Italian Fascist "demographic battle," the topic of the author's own research. Population policy (and theory) in that period inevitably overlapped with eugenic and racial concerns, and those issues are considered as well. The recent proliferation of national studies--on Britain, Germany, and Italy, but surprisingly not France--argues for a new synthesis.
English - pp. 579-592.
C. Ipsen, West European Studies and History, Indiana University, U.S.A.
(ITALY, WESTERN EUROPE, POLITICAL IDEOLOGIES, POPULATION POLICY, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH)
Is the pace of Japanese mortality decline converging toward international trends?
Life expectancy in Japan rose at an unprecedented rate in the years following World War II. By around 1980, Japan had attained its current position of world leader in terms of average length of life. However, after catching and then surpassing other countries, the pace of mortality decline in Japan now appears to be converging toward international trends.
English - pp. 593-600.
J. R. Wilmoth, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, U.S.A.
(JAPAN, MORTALITY DECLINE, LIFE EXPECTANCY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)
Back to Home page