POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT

United States of America (New York) 91

SEPTEMBER 1996 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 1

99.91.1 - English - Georges VERNEZ, RAND, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.), and Kevin F. MCCARTHY

The costs of immigration to taxpayers: Toward a uniform accounting framework (p. 9-36)

Large scale immigration to the United States and a sluggish national economy have brought to the forefront of the current immigration policy debate, the question of whether immigrants fully pay-in the form of taxes-for the public services they use. Recent estimates of the costs of immigration differ so widely that they have confused rather than enlightened that debate. This paper argues that a uniform accounting framework must be agreed to if future studies are to provide credible and reliable estimates of costs and benefits upon which immigration policy can be formulated. The key conceptual, factual, and accounting issues that are to be addressed for the development of such a framework are outlined. (UNITED STATES, IMMIGRATION, COST ANALYSIS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTING, TAXATION)

99.91.2 - English - J. Mayone STYCOS, Department of Rural Sociology, Cornell University, Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801 (U.S.A.)

Population and the environment: Polls, policies, and public opinion (p. 37-64)

Although recent academic and popular attention has argued for a wedding between population and environmental problems and policies, the scientific knowledge base for these topics has grown separately and at differential rates. Environmental research has grown faster than population research, while the joint treatment of these topics remains in its infancy. International polls that have included many questions concerning environmental attitudes have included far fewer on population. The few surveys on population attitudes have ignored the environment. The World Fertility Survey and the Demographic and Health Survey are fertility, rather than population, surveys. They have been useful in precipitating national policies on family planning, but are poor models for needed attitudinal and cognitive research on population and the environment. Some contemporary polls, such as the UNDEP sponsored poll conducted by the Louis Harris Agency, have serious methodological defects. Others, such as the 1992 Gallup poll, contain valuable data from which future surveys could profit. The conclusion outlines the need for a new multinational survey of Population/Environment Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (PEKAP). (POPULATION, ENVIRONMENT, SAMPLING, KAP SURVEYS, OPINION SURVEYS)

NOVEMBER 1996 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 2

99.91.3 - English - Kristi McCLAMROCH, Population-Environment Dynamics Project, University of Michigan, SPHII, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029 (U.S.A.)

Total fertility rate, women's education, and women's work: What are the relationships? (p. 175-186)

This paper presents the results of a statistical study, using cross-national data, on the relationships between total fertility rate and women's level of education and women's labor participation. Aggregate data on 71 countries were collected from numerous sources. Eight variables related to women's fertility, mortality, economic status, labor participation, and education are analyzed using multivariate linear regression analyses. Two models are considered. The first model regresses five variables on total fertility rate: per capita Gross National Product (GNP), percentage of women ages 15 to 19 who are married, female life expectancy at birth, calories available as a percentage of need, and percentage of married couples using contraception. The second model includes two additional regressors: the average number of years of schooling for women, and the percentage of women in the labor force. These seven variables are regressed on total fertility rate. Although the data are crude, the results of the analyses suggest that the model which incorporates women's level of education and women's labor participation captures the data better than the smaller model. The full model suggests that the percentage of women in the labor force is directly related to total fertility rate, whereas the average number of years of education for women is indirectly related to total fertility rate. (TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, MODELS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

99.91.4 - English - Jennifer C. CORNMAN, Population Studies Center, 1225 S. University, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590 (U.S.A.)

Toward sustainable development: Implications for population aging and the wellbeing of elderly women in developing countries (p. 201-218)

Attaining sustainable development has significant implications for population age structure, family structure and the wellbeing of elderly women. If one of the primary goals of sustainable development is reducing fertility to attain a population growth rate which can be supported by the Earth's resources, then working toward sustainable development will lead to an aging population. This demographic change coupled with other impacts of working toward sustainable development could significantly affect the status and wellbeing of elderly women. Drawing on examples primarily from the Asian setting, this paper will examine population aging and what this demographic change may mean for elderly women in developing areas. (ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, AGED, WOMEN, DEVELOPING AREAS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING)

JANUARY 1997 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 3

99.91.5 - English - David SIMCOX, Migration Demographics, 9835 Timberwood Circle, Louisville, KY 40223 (U.S.A.)

Immigration and informalization of the economy: Enrichment or atomization of community (p. 255-282)

The informal economy consists of those enterprises or individual workers which escape government regulation of wages, hours, labor safety and health, taxation, zoning or immigration. Estimates of the size of the informal economy loosely cluster around 6% to 12% of the GNP. Indicators of informalization are the proliferation of micro-enterprises, and heavy increases in self-employment and unpaid family workers. These indicators are strongest in major U.S. urban counties with large foreignborn populations. Providing the large labor reserve amenable to informalization has been the heavy admission of low-expectation, non-English speaking foreign workers since the late 1960s, and the subsequent inheritance by many of their U.S.-born children of similar labor market disadvantages. Abetting this transition have been deliberate government cutbacks since 1980 on enforcement of labor, immigration, safety and health standards. This article reviews the major ideological perspectives on informalization, which range from open admiration and encouragement of it as a force for economic competitiveness, to apprehension and condemnation as a form of state-condoned exploitation and an obstacle to sound development, greater income equality, community cohesion and rational economic planning. (UNITED STATES, IMMIGRANT WORKERS, INFORMAL SECTOR, GOVERNMENT POLICY)

99.91.6 - English - Lawrence C. HAMILTON, Sociology Department, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (U.S.A.), Carole L. SEYFRIT, Old Dominion University (U.S.A.), and Christina BELLINGER, University of New Hampshire (U.S.A.)

Environment and sex ratios among Alaska natives: An historical perspective (p. 283-300)

Human-environment interactions can affect the sex ratios of resource-dependent societies in a variety of ways. Historical and contemporary data on Alaska Native populations illustrate such effects. Some eighteenth and early nineteenth century observers noted an excess of females, which they attributed to high mortality among hunters. Population counts in the later nineteenth century and well into the twentieth found instead an excess of men in many communities. Female infanticide was credited as the explanation: since family survival depended upon hunting success, mates were more valued. Although infanticide explanations for the excess of mates have been widely believed, available demographic data point to something else: higher adult female mortality. Finally, in the postwar years, the importance of mortality differentials seems to have faded -- and also changed direction. Female outmigration from villages accounts for much of the gender imbalance among Native populations today. Natural-resource development, particularly North Slope oil, indirectly drives this migration. In Alaska's transcultural communities, the present gender imbalances raise issues of individual and cultural survival. (UNITED STATES, INDIGENOUS POPULATION, HISTORY, ENVIRONMENT, SEX RATIO, EXCESS MORTALITY, OUT-MIGRATION)

99.91.7 - English - Stephen G. PERZ, Population Research Center, 1800 Main Building, Department of Sociology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (U.S.A.)

The environment as a determinant of child mortality among migrants in frontier areas of Pará and Rondônia, Brazil, 1980 (p. 301-324)

This article examines child mortality as an indicator of the quality of life among migrants living in Brazilian Amazonia in 1980. I focus on migrants in the frontier states of Pará and Rondônia, which experienced rapid settlement during the 1970s. The key question here is the effect of settlement location on child mortality rates. While Rondônia had lower ratios of population per public health establishments and personnel than Pará, Rondônia nonetheless exhibited a higher malaria prevalence in 1980. I therefore attribute locational differences in child mortality to environmental factors important to malaria transmission rather than to health care infrastructure. The findings from multivariate regression analysis show that net of the effects of human capital, migration history and migrant living standards, settling in Pará rather than Rondônia resulted in significantly lower rates of child mortality. These findings suggest that environmental factors coinciding with location of frontier settlement had important consequences for the living standards of migrants in the Brazilian Amazon. (BRAZIL, ENVIRONMENT, INFANT MORTALITY, MIGRANTS, STANDARD OF LIVING, SETTLEMENT PROCESS)

MARCH 1997 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 4

99.91.8 - English - T. Michael MAHER, Department of Communication, University of Southwestern Louisiana, P.O. Box 43650, Lafayette, LA 70504-3650 (U.S.A.)

How and why journalists avoid the population-environment connection (p. 339-372)

Recent surveys show that Americans are less concerned about population than they were 25 years ago, and they are not connecting environmental degradation to population growth. News coverage is a significant variable affecting public opinion, and how reporters frame a problem frequently signals what is causing the problem. Using a random sample of 150 stories about urban sprawl, endangered species and water shortages, Part I of this study shows that only about one story in 10 framed population growth as a source of the problem. Further, only one story in the entire sample mentioned population stability among the realm of possible solutions. Part II presents the results of interviews with 25 journalists whose stories on local environmental problems omitted the causal role of population growth. It shows that journalists are aware of the controversial nature of the population issue, and prefer to avoid it if possible. Most interviewees said that a national phenomenon like population growth was beyond the scope of what they could write as local reporters. (UNITED STATES, ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION GROWTH, INFORMATION, MEDIA)

99.91.9 - English - Eben V. FODOR, Energy & Environmental Planning Associates, 394 East 32nd Avenue, OR 97405 (U.S.A.)

The real cost of growth in Oregon (p. 373-388)

The costs of growth are little known, poorly understood and typically understated. This study is an initial effort to provide a more complete understanding of the current costs of growth in Oregon. While more than two dozen cost areas are identified, the focus is on basic physical infrastructure required for urban development. A "proportionate share" costing method is used to determine the public infrastructure costs associated with the construction of a typical single-family house. Each increment of growth is allocated costs for only the increment of system capacity required to serve it. Cost figures are from representative projects recently completed or underway in Oregon. The result is a composite of recent cost data selected to be representative of the state as a whole. An analysis of seven public infrastructure cost areas associated with the construction of a typical single-family house-including public facilities for schools, sewer, storm drainage, roads, water service, parks and recreation, and fire protection -- shows that the total cost is about $24,500 per house. Oregon's development impact fees are recovering only a fraction of these costs. As a result, most of these public infrastructure costs are distributed across the entire population of a community through property taxes or general obligation bonds, whereas the benefits of these investments accrue primarily to the new development. The methodology used in this study can be easily replicated and may provide a useful tool for communities trying to obtain better information about the economic and fiscal impacts of urban growth. A review of relevant literature and references are provided. (UNITED STATES, STATE, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, COST ANALYSIS, TAXATION)

99.91.10 - English - Stuart R. GAFFIN and Brian C. O'NEILL, Global Atmosphere Program, Environmental Defense Fund, 257 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10010 (U.S.A.)

Population and global warming with and without CO2 targets (p. 389-414)

The sensitivity of future global warming to variable population growth rates is reexamined as part of an ongoing debate over the extent to which climate change should be added to the list of concerns surrounding population growth. The UN 1992 low, medium and high population projections out to the year 2150 are run through an integrated climate-economics model which allows the effect of population variability to be traced through to CO2 emissions, concentrations, warming and economic growth.

We treat separately the cases of population's role in global warming, first without and then with specified atmospheric targets. Without targets, modeled CO2 concentrations in year 2150 show great variability ranging from 600 ppm (UN low projection) to 1375 ppm (UN high projection). Such numbers suggest the potential effect of variable population growth on climate is large and that population policy options carry with them a significant, longterm, global warming mitigation component. The range of global warming achieved is not as sensitive to population because of weakened radiative absorption at high CO2 levels. With respect to targets, with low population, stabilization at 650-750 ppm is achieved with relatively modest cuts in carbon intensity. Stabilization at 350-450 ppms requires steep cuts in emissions that are only weakly affected by the full range of variable population growth rates. Stabilization at 550 ppm is thus a transitional point between these end-member roles for population. Future work needs to address cost issues which could change this assessment of the role of population with CO2 targets. (ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION GROWTH, AIR POLLUTION, CLIMATE)

MAY 1997 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 5

99.91.11 - English - Lamont C. HEMPEL, Center for Politics and Economics, The Claremont Graduate School, Claremont, CA 91711-6163 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : hempelm@cgs.edu.

Population in context: a typology of environmental driving forces (p. 439-462)

This paper presents a typology and qualitative model of causation for use in assessing the relative contributions of population growth to problems of pollution, lost biodiversity, and natural resource depletion. Population growth is placed "in context" as one of eight key driving forces that shape environmental quality today. It is treated primarily as an impact "amplifier", along with technology. Root causes are traced to paradigmatic beliefs -- especially anthropocentrism and contempocentrism -- which find expression in unsustainable consumption patterns and designs of political economy. (POPULATION GROWTH, ENVIRONMENT, MODELS)

99.91.12 - English - Linda H. THOM, 1236 Camino Palomera, Santa Barbara, CA 93111 (U.S.A.)

Immigration's impact on teen pregnancy and juvenile crime (p. 473-482)

99.91.13 - English - Roy BECK, Social Contract, 1126 N. Frederick St., Arlington, VA 22205 (U.S.A.)

Immigration-fuled U.S. population growth is "spoiler" in economic, social and environmental efforts (p. 483-488)

MAY 1998 - VOLUME 19, NUMBER 5

99.91.14 - English - Jesper RYBERG, Webersgade 19, 2100 Copenhagen (Danemark)

The argument from overpopulation - Logical and ethical considerations (p. 411-426)

A traditional subject for discussion in population debates is whether the world or any subdivisions of it are overpopulated. Some proclaim that we are indeed in a state of overpopulation, while others persistently deny this claim. However, statements which proclaim or deny overpopulation are almost never accompanied by satisfactory definitions as to what overpopulation means. This is most unsatisfactory, especially because whether or not overpopulation is a fact is often claimed to be crucial when it comes to the justification of population political recommendations. This article considers an argument from overpopulation, according to which overpopulation justifies policies which reduce population size; and an argument against overpopulation, according to which the fact that present problems can be handled without population reductions establishes that there is no state of overpopulation. Both arguments are rejected by clarifying possible definitions of overpopulation. (OVERPOPULATION, WORLD POPULATION, THEORY, POPULATION POLICY)

99.91.15 - English - Frederick A.B. MEYERSON, Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 205 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511 (U.S.A.)

Population, development and global warming: Averting the tragedy of climate commons (p. 443-464)

Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and other human activity are predicted to cause a significant warming of the global climate, according to a growing consensus of scientists. Global warming would have substantial negative effects on the world environment and economy. Human population and economic growth continue to drive both energy use and carbon emissions. While the developed countries are the largest source of present and past emissions, developing countries are rapidly catching up. China will probably surpass the United States as the largest carbon emitter early in the next century. The global warming treaty signed in Rio in 1992 relies entirely on voluntary emission caps for developed countries and has had little or no apparent effect on emissions. Much stronger steps must be taken to avoid or lessen potential climate change. A globally determined but nationally imposed carbon tax should be adopted to internalize the future costs of carbon emissions into the present cost of fossil fuel and other carbon sources. This would allow the maximum use of free market forces and individual choice to determine how carbon emission reductions are achieved. In addition, national emission caps for all countries should be established. International trade mechanisms can be used to support universal implementation of these measures. Where possible, global warming policy should include strong but equitable incentives for sustainable development and population stabilization, important goals in themselves regardless of the extent of future climate change. (WORLD, GOVERNMENT POLICY, ENVIRONMENT, CLIMATE, NATURAL RESOURCES)

99.91.16 - English - William C. PADDOCK, Box 2968, Palm Beach, FL 33480 (U.S.A.)

The emasculation of the population movement (p. 465-470)

99.91.17 - English - Garry V. COOPER, Department of Geography and Planning, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC 28608 (U.S.A.)

Using a spreadsheet to develop population pyramids (p. 471-476)

Most planning offices today utilize spreadsheets and also population pyramids. However, few planners know how to create population pyramids using spreadsheets. Even the computer documentation that comes with spreadsheet programs is silent about how to do it ... yet it is both possible and easy to accomplish with just a little guidance. This paper informs readers how to do it using a step-by-step procedure. Both educators and practitioners should find this procedure a useful planning tool. (METHODOLOGY, POPULATION PYRAMID, COMPUTER SCIENCE)

JULY 1998 - VOLUME 19, NUMBER 6

99.91.18 - English - Martha MADISON CAMPBELL, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, 300 Second Street, Los Altos, CA 94022 (U.S.A.)

Schools of thought: An analysis of interest groups influential in international population policy (p. 487-512)

This analysis, written in 1993, explores the relationships among competing schools of thought in the international population policy arena. It offers the following observations: (1) Five interest groups are influential: the population-concerned community, a market-oriented group, people focusing on equitable distribution of resources, women's advocates, and the Vatican; (2) Only one of the five groups wants to draw attention to population growth; the other four all have other priorities and prefer to reduce attention to demography, seeing attention to population growth as interfering with their priorities; (3) Any attempt to base policy on identified common ground in this situation would result in asymmetry, turning policy attention away from population growth. (POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION POLICY, PUBLIC OPINION, THEORY)

99.91.19 - English - Doeke J. OOSTRA, The Federation, Espérance, Postbus 137, 8300 AC Emmeloord (Netherlands), et al.

The European umbrella organisation for population policy (p. 513-532)

99.91.20 - English - Donald L. HUDDLE, Department of Economics, Rice University, 6100 Main Street, Houston, TX 77005-1892 (U.S.A.)

Post-1969 immigration and the example of the insolvency of the social security system (p. 533-540)

Advocates of immigration to save Social Security (S.S.) assume that a pay-as-you-go system will work over the long run. That assumption is not shared by the Social Security Board of Trustees. Reflection shows that it would entail ever-larger new cohorts of immigrants to support those who are retiring, in effect, a Ponzi scheme. In fact, the benefits structure of the S.S. system, which pays out proportionately more to low-wage earners than to high-wage earners relative to their contributions, taken together with the income profile of post-1969 immigrants, means that the more immigration which occurs, the deeper into insolvency the system fails. (UNITED STATES, IMMIGRATION, SOCIAL SECURITY, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY)

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