POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW

United States of America (Wilmington, Delaware) 88

FEBRUARY 1998 - VOLUME 17, NUMBER 1

99.88.1 - English - Jeff TAYMAN, Research and Information Systems, San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B. Street, Suite 800, San Diego, California CA 92101 (U.S.A.), Edward SCHAFER, Mercer University School of Medicine, Macon, Georgia (U.S.A.), and Lawrence CARTER, Department of Sociology, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: jta@sandag.cog.ca.us

The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors: An evaluation using confidence intervals for subcounty areas (p. 1-20)

Producers of population forecasts acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in trying to predict the future and should warn about the likely error of their forecasts. Confidence intervals represent one way of quantifying population forecast error. Most of the work in this area relates to national forecasts; although, confidence intervals have been developed for state and county forecasts. Studies have examined subcounty forecast error, however, they only measured point estimates of error. This paper describes a technique for making subcounty population forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around their forecast error. lt also develops statistical equations for calculating point estimates and confidence intervals for areas with different population sizes. A non-linear, inverse relationship between population size and forecast accuracy was found and we demonstrate the ability to accurately predict average forecast error and confidence intervals based on this relationship. (POPULATION PROJECTIONS, ERRORS, CONFIDENCE INTERVALS)

99.88.2 - English - William O'HARE, The Annie E. Casey Foundation, 701 St Paul Street, Baltimore, MD 21202 (U.S.A.), and Kelvin M. POLLARD, Population Reference Bureau, Washington DC (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: billo@aecf.org

Assessing the devolution revolution: How accurate are state-level estimates from the current population survey? (p. 21-36)

The devolution of many social policy responsibilities from the Federal government to states has prompted increased interest in state-level measures of need. One data source that could be used to provide more state-level information, on a variety of topics is the Current Population Survey (CPS). During the past ten years the CPS has been used to produce state-level estimates on a variety of measures. However, there has been little systematic evaluation of these data. This paper provides measures of accuracy for several state-level estimates derived from the CPS. These include standard errors for single-year estimates, three-year averages, and five-year averages of the March CPS measures; standard errors for three-year averages of 12-month CPS files; and comparison of CPS-based estimates to data from the Decennial Census. The paper also examines the relative accuracy of CPS estimates based on states' size. The information in this study will help analysts better understand the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy to be considered when using state-level estimates derived from the CPS. (UNITED STATES, DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEYS, SAMPLING ERRORS, INDICATORS)

99.88.3 - English - Calvin L. BEALE, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC (U.S.A.), and Kenneth M. JOHNSON, Department of Sociology, Loyola University, 933 Damen Hall, 6525 North Sheridan Road, Chicago, IL 60626 (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: kjohnso@luc.edu

The identification of recreational counties in nonmetropolitan areas of the USA (p. 37-53)

Nonmetropolitan counties in the USA with significant concentrations of recreational activity are identified using a combination of quantitative and contextual indicators. The 285 counties identified as recreational encompass 12% of the nonmetropolitan counties and 15% of the 1990 nonmetropolitan population. Population growth in such counties has consistently exceeded that in other nonmetropolitan areas as well as that in metropolitan areas. Net migration accounted for most of the population growth in such counties during the 24 years considered. The revenue and expenditure patterns of local governments in recreational counties differ from those elsewhere suggesting significant policy concerns. (UNITED STATES, LEISURE, SPECIALIZATION, TERRITORIAL DIVISIONS, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION)

99.88.4 - English - Cynthia BUCKLEY, Department of Sociology, 1343 Burdine Hall, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: buckley@prc.utexas.edu

Rural/urban differentials in demographic processes: The Central Asian states (p. 71-89)

While the populations of the Central Asian successor states are extremely heterogeneous on many indicators, the issue of rural or urban residence is consistently important in terms of differentiaIs in population growth, socio-economic status and public health. In this paper I focus on rural population trends in Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. I explore the relatively disadvantaged position of rural inhabitants as well as regional variations within the rural population. The differentials in fertility and mortality rates and the large projected population increases indicate that future policy interventions and data collection efforts should incorporate a specific focus on rural areas. (KASAKHSTAN, KIRGHIZISTAN, TURKMENISTAN, OUZBEKISTAN, TADJIKISTAN, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, RURAL-URBAN DIFFERENTIALS, POPULATION DYNAMICS)

APRIL 1998 - VOLUME 17, NUMBER 2

99.88.5 - English - Sandra L. HOFFERTH, The University of Michigan (U.S.A.), and Duncan D. CHAPLIN, The Urban Institute, Washington DC (U.S.A.)

State regulations and child care choice (p. 111-140)

While government regulations are designed to safeguard the health and well-being of children, they may also alter the cost and availability of child care, thus affecting parental use of such services. This paper investigates the total effects of regulation on parental choice of child care and the indirect effects of regulation through the price, quality, and availability of care. In our analysis of data from the National Child Care Survey 1990 we find strong evidence that state regulations requiring center-based providers to be trained are associated with a lower probability that parents choose a center, while state inspections are associated with more parental choice of center and home care. We end by discussing the policy implications of our findings. (UNITED STATES, LEGISLATION, DAY CARE CENTRES, CHOICE)

99.88.6 - English - Michael J. WHITE and Zai LIANG, Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI (U.S.A.)

The effect of immigration on the internal migration of the native-born population, 1981-1990 (p. 141-166)

This study examines the impact of immigration on the labor market opportunities of the native-born population by looking through the window of migration. We use Current Population Survey data to analyze the one-year migration patterns of Anglos and Blacks and include the presence of recent immigrants in the origin and (potential) destination US states among the covariates. Our departure model employs a logit specification to predict outmigration (vs not) from the state during the year prior to the survey. Our arrival model uses a conditional logit discrete choice specification with sampling among the alternatives to predict destination state. The data are taken from the 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1990 Current Population Surveys. This work adds to other knowledge of the migratory response of workers and sheds light on theories of substitution and complementarity in labor markets. States with high levels of recent immigration are less likely to retain Anglo workers or receive new Anglo interstate migrants, but this apparent substitution effect is partially offset by the presence of long-term immigrant stock. Lower skilled Anglos are more susceptible to this substitution effect than those of higher skill level. In the black population, results are more complex. Lower skilled blacks are less attracted to high immigrant locations, but African-Americans of higher skill level in selected occupations and industries are predicted to be more likely to remain in or choose states with many recent immigrants. (UNITED STATES, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, IMMIGRATION, INTERNAL MIGRATION, LABOUR MIGRATION, WHITES, BLACKS)

99.88.7 - English - Steve WHITE and Steve H. MURDOCK, The Center for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research and Education, Department of Rural Sociology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas (U.S.A.)

The importance of demographic analyses in state- and local-level policy evaluations: A case study analysis of property taxes in Texas, USA (p. 167-196)

The reluctance of policy-makers to incorporate detailed demographic analyses in policy analyses often means that population composition is ignored in state and local policy evaluations. This article uses standard demographic projection, standardization and rate decomposition techniques to examine the implications of changing population composition for the property tax revenue base of Texas. The authors find that if current socioeconomic differentials persist into the future, projected compositional changes in the household population of Texas will significantly impact property tax revenues. Thus revenue projections based on aggregate growth and current average property value would seriously overestimate future property tax revenues in Texas because changes in the composition of the population lead to disproportionate growth in households likely to live in lower valued housing unite. The results indicate that the continuing focus of state and local policy-makers on changes in population size alone may be ill-advised and demonstrate the increasing importance of localand state-level demographic analysis in a period of increasing Federal devolution of service provision. (UNITED STATES, POPULATION COMPOSITION, TAXES, GOVERNMENT POLICY)

99.88.8 - English - Trent Wade MOORE, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, The University of Texas at Arlington, Texas (U.S.A.)

Fertility in China 1982-1990: Gender equality as a complement to wealth flows theory (p. 197-222)

Some scholars claim there is little variation in Chinese fertility because of 'coercive' family planning policies. This research, however, demonstrates that other factors contribute to significant variation in fertility rates among China's 30 provinces/administrative divisions. Although family planning and socioeconomic development are found to explain significant amounts of variation in fertility for both the 1982 and 1990 census cross-sections, it was also found that gender equality in education had become significant by 1990. Path model results that lag the effects of 1982 socioeconomic development and gender equality in education also indicate that they both have sizable direct effects and moderate indirect effects through family planning behavior on 1990 fertility rates. Discussions include the possibility that the recent free market and institutional reforms, e.g., the decollectivization of agriculture, have contributed a social structure whereby many Chinese families have increased awareness of the opportunity costs associated with their reproductive decision making. (CHINE, TENDANCE DE LA FECONDITE, FACTEUR DE LA FECONDITE, DISCRIMINATION ENTRE SEXES, EDUCATION)

JUNE 1998 - VOLUME 17, NUMBER 3

99.88.9 - English - Peter A. MORRISON, The RAND Corporation, 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : morrison@rand.org

Demographic influences on Latinos' political empowerment: Comparative local illustrations (p. 223-246)

How do Latinos gain local political power, given their demographic proportions and characteristics in a community's population? This paper examines the influences of population structure, socioeconomic factors, and residential patterns on the process by which Latinos have translated their numbers into an effective political presence in five California cities. The distinctive routes to empowerment evidenced in these cities reveal the varied possibilities local demographic settings may offer and the sensitivity of different election systems to those settings. Two alternatives are considered: (1) a change from election at large to election by single-member district, or (2) augmentation of Latinos' citywide voting strength in deciding the second- or third-place winner in a multi-member at-large election format. The findings can inform local districting efforts planned around the 2000 census. Their implications extend more broadly to courts applying laws intended to safeguard minority voting rights; and to public policies aimed at balancing interests that unify a community and those that may divide its members. (UNITED STATES, ETHNIC MINORITIES, POLITICS, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION)

99.88.10 - English - Shara G. NEIDELL, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6299 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : shara@ssc.sas.upenn.edu

Women's empowerment as a public problem: A case study of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (p. 247-260)

Using the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) as a case study, I examine how women's empowerment amassed public attention. I investigate feminist preparations for the conference and suggest that by playing an active role in preparatory meetings and the conference, women gained recognition from governments throughout the world and from the United Nations, and helped frame issues in a way that motivated the press to highlight women's empowerment. I argue "empowering women" became a catch phrase for media coverage and that abortion surfaced as a symbol of this empowerment. UN publications and reports of proceedings prior to, and during the 1994 ICPD, and articles from The New York Times illustrate use of this media package. The paper raises questions about types of policies governments will use to improve the position of women and the political power women will have in decisions. (WOMEN'S EMANCIPATION, POLITICS, CONFERENCES)

99.88.11 - English - Nan E. JOHNSON, Department of Sociology, Berkey Hall, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1111 (U.S.A.), and Bruce A. CHRISTENSON, American Institutes for Research, Palo Alto, Californie (U.S.A.)

E-mail : nan.johnson@ssc.msu.edu

Socio-demographic correlates of multiple causes of death: Real or artifactual? (p. 261-274)

The socio-demographic and epidemiological correlates of the total number of causes of death (TC) reported on death certificates were examined with multiple classification analysis (MCA). The data were all death certificates on white and black adult residents of Michigan who died at ages 25 or older in 1989 to 1991 (n = 222,763). TC was the sum of every morbid condition named as an underlying, intermediate, or immediate cause of death, or other medical condition contributing to death but not to its underlying cause. Autopsies performed for non-forensic reasons by physicians who are not Medical Examiners (MEs) likely yield the most accurate diagnoses of the underlying medical cause and counts of all other attendant causes, but they are extremely selective of decedents who are most closely interested into the health care system. Thus we required a socio-demographic pattern in TCs to appear in a multivariate analysis not only for this special group of autopsied decedents but also for the non-autopsied masses before accepting the pattern as "real" (not an artifact of underreporting of TC or confoundment with another socio-demographic variable).

The MCAs showed that age at death and its underlying medical cause were the most important factors related to TC, as suggested by epidemiologic transition theory. Compared with other underlying causes, diabetes, hypertension, and septicemia yielded the highest average TCs. While sex differences were generally not significant within racial groups, somewhat higher average TCs were found for blacks than whites and for lesser educated than for more educated decedents. These patterns in TC by race and education may reflect lifetime disadvantages faced by blacks and the less educated to health care or information about health practices. (UNITED STATES, MULTIPLE CAUSES OF DEATH, DATA COLLECTION)

99.88.12 - English - Gulzar H. SHAH, Bureau of Surveillance and Analysis, State of Utah Department of Health (U.S.A.), Michael B. TONEY, Population Research Laboratory, Department of Sociology, Social Work and Anthropology, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-0730 (U.S.A.), and Brian L. PITCHER, Office of the Provost, University of Idaho (U.S.A.)

E-mail : mtoney@wpo.hass.usu.edu

Consanguinity and child mortality: The risk faced by families (p. 275-283)

Previous research reveals that the characteristics and practices of a child's family are important determinants of its chances of surviving beyond childhood. This study investigates the effects of consanguinity on a family's odds of experiencing the death of a child in Pakistan, a society in which marriage among close relatives is common. Analysis of data from the 1991 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey reveals that first cousin marriages increase a couple's risk of enduring the death of one or more of their children. These couples are 1.18 times as likely to have a child die by its fifth birthday than couples not related by blood net of other factors associated with child mortality. Elimination of first cousin marriages would contribute to a modest decrease in the proportion of Pakistani families suffering the death of a child. (PAKISTAN, CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGE, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY)

99.88.13 - English - Robert A. HUMMER, Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin, 1800 Main Building, Austin, TX 78712 (U.S.A.), Charles B. NAM, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University (U.S.A.), and Richard G. ROGERS, Department of Sociology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado (U.S.A.)

E-mail : rhummer@prc.utexas.edu

Adult mortality differentials associated with cigarette smoking in the USA (p. 285-304)

Although cigarette smoking has been extensively researched, surprising little knowledge has been produced by demographers using demographic perspectives and techniques. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature by extending a demographic framework to an important behavior for mortality research: cigarette smoking. In earlier works, the authors used nationally-representative data to show that cause of death patterns varied by smoking status and that multiple causes of death characterized smokers moreso than non-smokers. The present work extends previous analysis by estimating smoking status mortality differentials by underlying, and multiple causes of death and by age and sex. Data from the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey are related to data from the 1985 and 1987 National Health Interview Survey supplements to assess the smoking-related mortality differentials. We find that cigarette smoking is associated with higher mortality for all population categories studied, that the smoking mortality differentials vary across the different smoking status categories and by demographic group, and that the mortality differentials vary according to whether underlying cause or multiple cause patterns of death are examined. Moreover, the multiple cause analysis highlights otherwise obscured smoking-mortality relations and points to the importance of respiratory diseases and cancers other than lung cancer for cigarette smoking research. (SMOKING, MULTIPLE CAUSES OF DEATH, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)

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