EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION

France (Paris) 65

DECEMBER 1997 ? VOLUME 13, NUMBER 4

99.65.1 - English - Peter CONGDON, Department of Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Medicine, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG (U.K.)

Multilevel and clustering analysis of health outcomes in small areas (p. 305-338)

This paper considers models of the variable incidence of health outcomes in geographical areas and of variable regression effects of socioeconomic variables on such outcomes. It adopts a Bayesian approach to variation in relative risk and regression effects, and assesses different prior specifications of risk (e.g. a latent class structure versus a spatially correlated structure). Implications are considered for smoothing and mapping rare health outcomes. The analysis is for electoral wards in London, with the health-deprivation link forming the focus for regression effects. Implications for inferences about risk factors and for health-need ratings (before and after smoothing) are also considered. (METHODOLOGY, MODELS, INDICATORS, HEALTH, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION)

99.65.2 - English - Linda HANTRAIS, European Research Centre, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire LE11 3TU (U.K.)

E-mail: L.Hantrais@lboro.ac.uk

Exploring relationships between social policy and changing family forms within the European Union (p. 339-379)

This article examines critically the linkages posited between social policy and changing family forms in European Union member states since the 1960s. While lower fertility rates, changing family patterns, population ageing and the rapid growth in women's economic activity can be shown to provoke policy responses, evidence for a causal impact of policy on demographic behaviour and for the diffusion of policies between countries is inconclusive. The article argues that policy environments are shaped by a complex array of factors, which may appear, in certain configurations, to be conducive to family building or to the development of particular family forms. (WESTERN EUROPE, SOCIAL POLICY, FAMILY)

99.65.3 - French - Philippe WANNER, PENG Fei and St?phane COTTER, Office f?d?ral de la statistique, Schwarztorstrasse 53, CH-3003 Berne (Switzerland)

E-mail: Philippe.Wanner@bfs.admin.ch

Mortality by age and cause of death in Switzerland: An analysis of differences between cantons during the period 1978/83 to 1988/93 (Mortalit? par ?ge et cause de d?c?s en Suisse : une analyse des disparit?s cantonales durant la p?riode 1978/83 ? 1988/93) (p. 381-399)

During the 1980s, expectation of life at birth increased in all the Swiss cantons, but at very different tempi. The characteristics of the level and trends of mortality in the cantons are described here by the decomposition methods developed by Pollard and Arriaga. The pace of the development of mortality in the cantons is compared, and the particular characteristics observed are accounted for by life table analysis according to age and cause of death. The results show in particular the dominant role played at economically active ages and beyond in recent mortality trends, and the importance of AIDS and of violent deaths in accounting for differences between cantons. The analysis is concluded by a discussion of the main results obtained. (SWITZERLAND, MORTALITY TRENDS, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, LIFE TABLES, CAUSES OF DEATH, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY)

MARCH 1998 ? VOLUME 14, NUMBER 1

99.65.4 - English - Wolfgang LUTZ, Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria), and Sergei SCHERBOV, Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen (Netherlands)

E-mail: lutz@iiasa.ac.at

E-mail: s.scherbov@rug.nl

An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections (p. 1-17)

The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through high and low variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these alternative paths are assumed to cover. But probabilistic approaches have not yet found their way into official population projections. This paper proposes an expert-based probabilistic approach that seems to meet important criteria for successful application to national and international projections: 1) it provides significant advantages to current practice, 2) it presents an evolution of current practice rather than a discontinuity, 3) it is scientifically sound, and 4) it is applicable to all countries.

In a recent Nature article (Lutz et al., 1997) this method was applied to 13 world regions. This paper discusses the applicability to national projections by directly taking the alternative assumptions defined by the Austrian Statistical Office. Sensitivity analyses that resolve some methodological questions about the approach are also presented. (AUSTRIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY)

99.65.5 - English - Laurent CHENET, David LEON, Martin MCKEE, European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT (U.K.), and Serguei VASSIN, Centre for Demography and Human Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 32 Krasikova, 117418 Moscou (Russia)

Deaths from alcohol and violence in Moscow: Socio-economic determinants (p. 19-37)

Objective: To examine the association between accidental, violent and alcohol related adult mortality in the Russian capital and socioeconomic status characteristics such as educational status, occupational group and marital status.

Data and methods: individual death records for Moscow City for the years 1994 and 1995, for 86,121 deaths between the ages of 20-59. Proportional mortality analysis was used to compare trends for alcohol related deaths and accidental and violent deaths (representing 5 and 28% of all deaths in this age group), with multiple controls consisting of deaths from cancer at various sites.

Results: The probability of death from alcohol related diseases increased as education level decreased, with those men failing to complete secondary education over two and a half times as likely to die from these causes than men with higher education. Blue collar workers were also much more likely to die from these causes than white collar workers. Marriage had a marked protective effect for both men and women.

Conclusion: Despite 75 years of official egalitarian ideology, there are marked socioeconomic differentials in mortality in Russia. For the causes of death analysed, socioeconomic mortality differentials were greater for women than for men. (RUSSIA, CAPITAL CITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, ALCOHOLISM, VIOLENT DEATHS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS)

99.65.6 - English - Evert VAN IMHOFF and K?ne HENKENS, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR La Haye (Netherlands)

E-mail : imhoff@nidi.nl

The budgetary dilemmas of an ageing workforce: A scenario study of the public sector in the Netherlands (p. 39-59)

This paper studies the consequences (particularly the budgetary effects) of alternative senior-worker policies in the Dutch public sector. Special attention is paid to: the ongoing process of population ageing; the interaction between the participation in senior-worker schemes and the use of disability and unemployment schemes; and the effect of labour participation of older workers on employment opportunities for younger workers. From the scenario analysis, it appears that policies aimed at influencing the participation in senior-worker schemes will not result in substantial savings. The main conclusion of the study is that ageing of the labour force will lead to substantial cost increases anyway, whatever the early-retirement policy. (NETHERLANDS, LABOUR FORCE, GOVERNMENT POLICY, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, OLDER WORKERS, NATIONAL BUDGET)

99.65.7 - English - Gianpiero DALLA ZUANNA, Stefano GAVINI, Department of Demography, University "La Sapienza", Via Nomentana 1, 00161 Rome (Italy), and Angela SPINELLI, National Health Institute, Rome (Italy)

E-mail : gianpi@dsd.sta.uniroma1.it

The effect of changing sexual, marital and contraceptive behaviour on conceptions, abortions, and births (p. 61-88)

A model is proposed to estimate the number of conceptions during a single year using few survey data, official data on births and abortions for the two years following the survey, and some parameters on contraception failure. The model is fitted for 1979, 1989, 1994 to Puglia, a Southern Italian region with a population of 4 millions. Simulations are also produced.

The decrease in births is caused mainly by the decline in wanted births, whereas the decline in abortions is caused by diffusion of the pill, IUD, and condom. The rapid increase in the proportion of never-married women explains the slow decrease in unwanted births and conceptions, compared to the fast decline in wanted ones. This situation is different compared to other Western countries (e.g. France and UK) where the decline in TFR during the 1960s and 1970s was largely caused by the decline in unwanted fertility, thanks to improved modern contraception and sterilisation. (ITALY, REGIONS, METHODOLOGY, MODELS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS)

JUNE 1998 ? VOLUME 14, NUMBER 2

99.65.8 - English - John LIEVENS, Department of Population Studies and Social Science Research Methods, University of Ghent, Sint-Pietersnieuwstraat 49, 9000 Gent (Belgium)

E-mail : John.Lievens@rug.ac.be

Interethnic marriage: Bringing in the context through multilevel modelling (p. 117-155)

This article deals with the underlying causes of interethnic marriages of Turks and Moroccans living in Belgium. Predictions derived from assimilation theory (micro-perspective) and from the macro-structural perspective are combined in a single empirical model through multilevel modelling. It is found that both individual and higher-level determinants independently influence the propensity for being interethnically married. Higher odds are generally found for the second generation and at higher levels of age at marriage and educational attainment. Interethnic marriage is further promoted by a small size of the ethnic group, by low ethnic heterogeneity and by low correlation between the ethnic and the socioeconomic dimension. Interethnic marriages are generally more prevalent in districts where the common language is French and where the majority of immigrants originate from urban regions in the country of origin. (BELGIUM, TURKEY, MOROCCO, MIXED MARRIAGE, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION, MODELS)

99.65.9 - English - Gunnar ANDERSSON, Demography Unit, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

Trends in marriage formation in Sweden 1971-1993 (p. 157-177)

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a system of annual indices of the risks of marriage and remarriage and to use the system to display such marriage risks for Swedish women over the years since 1971. Our indices are produced by applying indirect standardization to register data. The propensity to marry decreased considerably during the 1970s and it has continued to decrease also during the first half of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. The decrease in marriage risks is mostly due to a decreased propensity to marry among never-married women with no children. The decrease is not so strong for never-married women with children and for divorced women. A sharp, but only temporary, deviation from the general pattern of Swedish marriage-risk trends occurred in 1989, when the number of marriages formed increased dramatically in response to the near-abolition of the public widow's pensions for women who were not married at the beginning of 1990. (SWEDEN, MARRIAGE, REMARRIAGE, NUPTIALITY, TRENDS)

99.65.10 - English - Zenaida R. RAVANERA, Fernando RAJULTON and Thomas K. BURCH, Population Studies Centre, University of Western Ontario, London (Canada N6A 5C2)

E-mail : ravanera@julian.uwo.ca

Early life transitions of Canadian women: A cohort analysis of timing, sequences, and variations (p. 179-204)

This paper looks into the timing and sequences of early life transitions of Canadian women using data from the 1995 General Social Survey of Family. Six events occurring in early adulthood are examined: school completion, first job, home-leaving, first cohabitation, first marriage, and first birth. Our analysis of birth cohorts spanning 60 years shows that the biggest changes in timing occurred in school completion and start of work; that the trajectories involving work before marriage have gained popularity among later cohorts; and that education appreciably delays early life transitions. (CANADA, WOMEN, LIFE CYCLE, YOUTH)

SEPTEMBER 1998 ? VOLUME 14, NUMBER 3

99.65.11 - English - Patrick R. GALLOWAY, Ronald D. LEE and Eugene A. HAMMEL, Department of Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720-2120 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : galloway@demog.berkeley.edu

Urban versus rural: Fertility decline in the cities and rural districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910 (p. 209-264)

Marital fertility in 54 Prussian cities and 407 Prussian Kreise (administrative areas) is analyzed using unusually rich and detailed socioeconomic and demographic data from eight quinquennial census between 1875 and 1910. Pooled cross-section time series methods are used to examine influences on marital fertility level and on marital fertility decline, focusing particularly on fertility differences according to level of urbanization. Increases in female labour force participation rate and income, the growth of financial services and communications, improvement in education, and reduction in infant mortality account for most of the marital fertility decline in 19th century Prussia. In 1875, rural and urban fertility were similar but by 1910, urban fertility was far lower than rural in part because the values of some of these variables changed more rapidly in the cities, and in part because some of these variables had stronger effects in urban settings. (GERMANY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DECLINE, RURAL-URBAN DIFFERENTIALS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

99.65.12 - English - Marek KUPISZEWSKI, Helen DURHAM and Philip REES, School of Geography, The University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (U.K.)

Internal migration and urban change in Poland (p. 265-290)

The paper investigates population change and migration over the period 1984-1994 for communes. There are important conclusions emerging from this study. The first is that we are watching now a profound change of population redistribution patterns in Poland. We observed that direct upwards hierarchical mobility has been markedly modified. The first modification is the substantial reduction of migration from rural to urban locations. There were important changes in the role of cities and towns. Largest cities, massive gainers of the seventies and eighties, have tended to lose population in the mid-nineties. It is likely that they lose population mainly to the neighbouring communes. We believe that a suburbanization process has been put into motion. Medium to large sized towns and cities, in the range between 50,000 and 500,000 as well as small, but not the smallest, towns attract substantial parts of the migration pool. (POLAND, INTERNAL MIGRATION, POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, URBAN HIERARCHY)

99.65.13 - English - Jes?s J. SANCHEZ, Public University of Navarre, Pamplona (Spain)

E-mail : jesus.sbarricarte@upna.es

Social differences in the decline of marital reproduction in Rural Navarre (Spain) (p. 291-301)

The continued decline of marital fertility in Navarre (Spain) during the first few decades of the 20th century was associated with an increase in life expectancy and greater survival to adulthood. This decline affected all social strata and all geographical regions, rural areas as well as cities. Nonetheless, the decline was not homogeneous. Some sectors of Navarrese society began the fertility transition earlier than others.

Cross sectional analysis is presented for different years of diverse variables that could be related to the levels of marital fertility: level of urbanization, occupation of the father, level of religious devotion and political factors. Statistical evidence is presented that confirms the relationship of these variables to the levels of fertility. (SPAIN, PROVINCES, FERTILITY DECLINE, LEGITIMATE FERTILITY RATE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

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