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Brazil (Sao Paulo) 62

REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE ESTUDOS DE POPULACAO

JULY-DECEMBER 1996 - VOLUME 13, NUMBER 2

99.62.1 - Portuguese - Sonia ROCHA

Income and poverty: The effects of the Real Plan (Renda e pobreza: os impactos do Plano Real) (p. 117-133)

The Real Plan success in taming inflation arose the interest in its effect on absolute poverty, that is, on the population whose per capita household income is situated below the estimated minimum for meeting basic needs. Considering that, until mid-1996, household income data for the period after the plan were not available, our choice was to use micro-data from the Employment Monthly Survey (PME/IBGE) as basic source. For this reason the first section discusses methodological questions related to deriving poverty indicators from the PME and from the Annual Household Survey (PNAD/IBGE) for 1990. Then, for the Real Plan period and using PME data only, poverty indicators where obtained for four different months and for six metropolitan regions investigated in the survey. Despite differences among the metropolises in what concerns poverty incidence levels and the evolution of poverty, there is evidence of a consistent reduction in the proportions of poor and some increase of the income gap ratios. Nevertheless, the indicator which encompasses the three aspects of poverty shows an inequivocal improvement during the period. (BRAZIL, POVERTY, ECONOMIC POLICY, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, INDICATORS, SURVEYS)

99.62.2 - Portuguese - Ernesto Rodríguez CHÁVEZ, Centro de Estudios sobre América, Havana (Cuba)

The migration crisis of Summer 1994. Balance and perspectives of the Cuban migratory flows: 1984-1996 (A crise migratória do verão de 1994. Balanço e perspectivas do fluxo emigratório cubano: 1984-1996) (p. 135-167)

The article argues that the rafters crisis of 1994 and the resulting migration agreements between the United States and Cuba in 1994 and 1995 were a radical turn in policies and migration flows between the two countries. The article also describes the general evolution of cuban migration flows towards the U.S. from the 1984 bilateral agreement up to 1996. As a context, it describes the structural elements of recent Cuban emigration and the place Cubans occupy in the general immigration from Latin America and the Caribbean. In the case of Cuba, the resulting main thesis is that changes in the policies imply only regulation flows according to specific situations and that it continues to be a controlled policy of open arms that ensures other strategic interest of the U.S. and places Cubans near the general immigrations mechanisms to facilitate changes in an indetermined future. (CUBA, UNITED STATES, MIGRATION FLOW, INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS, MIGRATION POLICY)

99.62.3 - Portuguese - Neir Antunes PAES, Departamento de Estatística da Universidade Federal da Paraiba, Campus I (Brazil)

Model representation of the mortality patterns (Representação de modelos padrões de mortalidade) (p. 169-182)

In this study a bibliographic review of the classical model life tables in the demographic literature is done, calling the attention to the characteristics and limitations of using such models for constructing complete life tables. A critical review with relation to the 'Brazil Model' of life tables and two new models proposed based in the Brazilian experience of mortality is done. (BRAZIL, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, LIFE TABLES, MODEL LIFE TABLES)

99.62.4 - Portuguese - Manolo FLORENTINO, Departamento de História, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), and José Roberto GÓES, Instituto de Ciências Humanas e Filosofia, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Kinship, stability and occupation: The slave families in Rio de Janeiro, 1790-1830 (Parentesco, estabilidade familiar e ocupação entre os escravos: o caso do meio rural fluminense entre 1790 e 1830) (p. 183-198)

The article tries to establish some of the patterns related to the slave families in the rural area of Rio de Janeiro in the first half of the 19th century. The research is based on wills. From a theoretical point of view kinship is considered to be one of the main strategies of pacification, socialization and slaves organization. From these functions come its conservative social role, essential to the reproduction of the inclusive slavery system. (BRAZIL, KINSHIP, SLAVERY, RURAL POPULATION, WILLS)

99.62.5 - Portuguese - Nelson DE CASTRO SENRA, Universidade Santa Úrsula, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

The question of administrative registers vis-à-vis the statistics generation (A questão dos registros administrativos vis-à-vis a geração de estatísticas) (p. 199-205)

The text tries to flash at the issue of the generation of statistics from the administrative registers. It starts by seeking a definition to the surnamed registers, and immediately after it makes a brief incursion in its history, which goes back to the own formation of capitalism. Immediately, it's led to think the real possibilities of deriving the administrative registers to statistics, this way giving them a new use. Along this consideration, it's analysed the complex matter of the real meaning of the derived statistics, doing so by a huge number of examples. Afterwards, it's discussed the issues of work environment and of the aggregation method. Finally, it's presented a suggestion of recreation of the idea of administrative registers which facilitates the generation of statistics. (DATA COLLECTION, STATISTICS, PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION)

JANUARY-DECEMBER 1997 - VOLUME 14, NUMBER 1-2

99.62.6 - Portuguese - Judicael CLEVELARIO Júnior, Kohan-Saagoyen Consultoria e Sistemas (Brazil)

Immigration contribution in the formation of Brazilian population (A participação da imigração na formação do população brasileira) (p. 51-71)

The present study used a simple linear model to estimate the participation of immigration in the formation of Brazilian population. The results showed that between 12 and 24% (most probably 18%) of the Brazilian population has immigrant origin. These numbers indicate that immigration has more importance in the formation of Brazilian population than is usually assumed. (BRAZIL, IMMIGRATION, POPULATION DYNAMICS)

99.62.7 - Portuguese - Carlos Aurélio PIMENTA DE FARIA, Mestrado em Administração Pública da Escola de Governo da Fundação João Pinheiro, Belo Horizonte (Brazil)

"Population question" and formation of the welfare state in Sweden (A " questão populacional " e a conformação do Estado de Bem-Estar Social na Suécia) (p. 73-96)

It is known that the birth rates declined sharply in the first decades of this century in the most industrialized Western European nations. Governmental reaction to the so-called "population question", however, was widely different from one country to the other. It is possible to say that in Sweden the widespread anxiety concerning the fear of depopulation was channeled into "positive" measures aimed at structuring the social security system. This article analyzes the works of the two Comissions of Investigation established in Sweden to study the subject, the policies implemented, and their legacy to a welfare state which is known for providing protection "from the womb to the tomb". The text examines the nature of state intervention in the country and the way the principles put into force by the Swedish population policies became one of the pillars sustaining the "Swedish model". (SWEDEN, SOCIAL SECURITY, POPULATION POLICY)

99.62.8 - Portuguese - Maria Silvia C. BEOZZO BASSANEZI, Núcleo de Estudos de População, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Brazil)

New perspectives on historical demography (Repensando a demografia histórica) (p. 97-100)

99.62.9 - Portuguese - David S. REHER, Universidad Complutense, Madrid (Spain)

Challenge and experience of historical demography at the end of the century (Desafios e conquistas da demografia histórica no final do século) (p. 101-124)

99.62.10 - Portuguese - Maria Luiza MARCÍLIO, Universidade de São Paulo (Brazil)

Brazilian historical demography at the end of this millennium (A demografia histórica brasileira nesse final de milênio) (p. 125-144)

The text analyses the production and the researches lines followed in the Brazilian Historical Demography. After has made her Ph.D thesis with Professor Louis Henry (Historical Demography father's) and had published this work in France, under the title La Ville de São Paulo Peuplement et Population 1750-1850, in 1968, the autor introduced the new science in Brazil. Under this conditions this text is a personal testimony and also a critical analysis about the Brazilian production in 30 years of researches in this field. This study emphasizes the researches lines and the themes who has been receiving the biggest attention by the researches, it means studies about the sources existants for the studies in Brazilian Historical Demography, marriages, families and children: structures and dynamics about free and slave population. On the other hand, this researches has been concentraded in the South-Center of the country and in the period between 1750 and 1850. It also demonstrates that a few attention was given to the studies about fertility, death rates, morbidity and migrations in the past population of Brazil. (BRAZIL, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH)

99.62.11 - Portuguese - Sergio Odilon NADALIN, Departamento de História, Universidade Federal do Paraná (Brazil)

An assessement of historical demography: Notes for a debate (A propósito de um balanço da demografia histórica: notas para um debate) (p. 145-150)

99.62.12 - Portuguese - José Flávio MOTTA and Iraci DEL NERO DA COSTA, Faculdade de Economia e Administração, Universidade de São Paulo (Brazil)

Historical demography: From sowing to gathering (Demografia histórica: da semeadura à colheita) (p. 151-158)

The paper tries to discern the immediate future awaiting Brazilian Demographic History. It postulates that this development may lead researchers on the one hand to study in greater depth the demographic patterns found in Brazilian past and on the other hand to a new synthesis of Brazilian economic and social formation. This new synthesis may complement and surpass the interpretative models established in Brazilian historiography. (BRAZIL, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, TRENDS)

JANUARY-JUNE 1998 - VOLUME 15, NUMBER 1

99.62.13 - Portuguese - Luzinete SIMÕES MINELLA, Departamento de Ciências Sociais, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (Brazil)

Scientific production about Brazilian female sterilisation from the 80s to the beginning of the 90s (A produção científica sobre esterilização feminina no Brasil nos anos 80 e no início dos 90: um debate em aberto) (p. 3-22)

This paper analyses the scientific production about Brazilian female sterilisation from the 80s to the beginning of the 90s. It was identified three focus: demographic, social health and socio-antropological. It were analysed 45 scientific works from different research and teaching institutions. Based on this, a hypothesis was established about the relationship between the generalisation of sterilisation and women psychology inspired in the works by Guattari and Rolnik. (BRAZIL, FEMALE STERILIZATION, PSYCHOLOGY, RESEARCH)

99.62.14 - Portuguese - Laura L. RODRÍGUEZ WONG, Departamento de Demografia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), Rita BADIANI, Associação Brasileira Interdisciplinar de AIDS (Brésil), and Inês QUENTAL, Departamento de Pesquisas Sociais, Sociedade Civil Bem-Estar Familiar no Brasil (Brazil)

Reproductive health in the PNDS-1996 (Achados e perdidos sobre saúde reprodutiva na PNDS-1996) (p. 23-42)

The article points out the main DHS/BEMFAM 1996 findings and suggests a research agenda concerning reproductive health. Available data give a positive portrait of the demographic Brazilian situation: sustained decrease of infant mortality levels, improvement of health conditions, longer breastfeeding periods and relatively low levels of infant and maternal under nutrition. It shows low fertility levels, consistent with a small family size desired and intensive use of contraception. The relatively high proportion of pregnancies due to modern contraception failure and discontinuation rates due to side effects are remarked. Hence the hypotheses of insufficient knowledge of contraception and few available options of the Brazilian population for family planning is outlined. Deep research on the following issues are suggested: a) remaining fertility differentials and perspectives on levels and patterns homogenization; b) motivation, determinants and implementation of desired family size using longitudinal and cross sectional studies; c) gender equality and women empowerment concerning reproduction; d) reproductive health among different population groups in order to identify population at higher risks. The diagnosis shall include epidemiology of STD and HIV/AIDS, sexuality and gender relations and the most at-risk population groups, as adolescents; e) morbidity and mortality, emphasizing situation of basic health care and safe pregnancy and delivery. (BRAZIL, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS, POPULATION SITUATION)

99.62.15 - Portuguese - Ignez Helena Oliva PERPÉTUO, Departamento de Demografia, Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil)

Contraception and fertility decline in the Northeast Brazil, 1980-1996 (Contraconcepção e declínio da fecundidade na Região Nordeste, 1980-1996) (p. 43-56)

This paper analyse changes in rates and differentials in fertility and contraception of the Northeast women. It also study the the relationship between these two variables stressing female sterilisation. The total fertility rate of these women has declined dramatically among all social groups and regions. This was provoked by female sterilisation which was responsible for 70% of the Northeast prevalence in 1996. Regional and socio-economic differences almost disappeared so other methods became to be responsible for differences in fertility rates. (BRAZIL, REGIONS, FERTILITY DECLINE, FEMALE STERILIZATION)

99.62.16 - Portuguese - Maria Cristina GOMES DA CONCEIÇÃO, El Colegio de México (Mexico)

Living with family or at old people's home, in a context of demographic ageing: The case of Mexico (Vida em família e institucionalização em um contexto de envelhecimento populacional - o caso do México) (p. 57-78)

In this article we use the social reproduction concept to reveal the effects of the demographic transition last phase in development countries. We discuss especially the initial impact of the ageing process on the domestic units organization and social security institutions. These institutions will receive in the next years the numerous cohorts of individuals who are coming in the third age in Mexico. We search the different social groups in third age, their relation with the labour market, the family and institutional resources. There are gender differences that characterize this age group into this heterogeneous context, because men and women assume different social roles into and out the family. As parental and social indicators we adopt parental relations, economic status, composition and structure of the domestic units. On the other hand, we compare with other countries the institutional support in Mexico, as the asylum and social security. Temporality of the individual and family life course is an important concern in the relation between ageing, family and society. The high life expectancy impacts the size, composition and structure of the domestic units, especially in the last phase of their life cycle. Couples survive although the third age and then dissolute mainly because the widowhood. In this step, the head's roles, the size and structure of the domestic units are redefined according the gender differences reproduced demographical and socially. (MEXICO, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, RETIREMENT HOMES)

99.62.17 - Portuguese - Morvan DE MELLO MOREIRA, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (Brazil)

Demographic ageing in Brazil: Intensity, feminisation and dependence (O envelhecimento da população brasileira: intensidade, feminização e dependência) (p. 79-94)

A dramatic fall in fertility of Brazilian women has resulted in a rapid ageing of Brazilian population. The speed of this process has been much faster in Brazil than in most of European countries. This has marked social consequences. As a result of mortality differences, female population presents a larger proportion of aged persons than male population. For some time, Brazilian dependency ratio will decline which will allow a breath period before Brazil face an increase in this ration. In this situation, the dependency ratio will change from a young dependency ratio to an old. (BRAZIL, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, DEPENDENCY RATIO, AGED

99.62.18 - Portuguese - Moema G. BUENO FÍGOLI, Departamento de Demografia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil)

Modelisation and projection of mortality in Brazil (Modelando e projetando a mortalidade no Brasil) (p. 95-113)

This paper applies Lee and Carter's method for forecasting mortality for both males and females in Brazil. The method combines a demographic model with a time series method. First, I adjust a matrix of logarithms of the age-specifics mortality rates for previous periods through a demographic model. The results yields two constant age-specific vectors and one index level, time variant vector. Second, I model the mortality level indexes as a time series and make a projection and plug the mortality level indexes into the original demographic model. Finally, I obtain the central death rates. (BRAZIL, DEATH RATE, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, PROJECTIONS, METHODOLOGY)

99.62.19 - Portuguese - Ana Maria NOGALES VASCONCELOS, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade de Brasilia (Brazil)

The quality of death statistics in Brazil (A qualidade das estatísticas de óbitos no Brasil) (p. 115-124)

The analysis of the quality of death statistics in Brazil presents a comparison between the two independent systems established since the years 1970, for collecting and publishing death statistics for the whole country (the official system of IBGE - Institute Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - and the Ministry of Health System). Besides the problem of underregistration that affects both systems, differences of coverage at national and regional levels, as well as for some characteristics of the deceased, are observed. Thus, mortality measures may highly differ according to the source of data used. With regard to the number and quality of information, the Ministry of Health system provides more information for the mortality studies (including cause-of-death data) than the IBGE system. However the quality of the information is, for many reasons, very poor and compromises the use of the data. The analysis of the quality of cause of death data also shows that the proportion of death with ill-defined causes varies from one region to another. In order to improve the quality of death statistics in Brazil, additional efforts may be undertaken and the maintenance of the two systems must be discussed. (BRAZIL, QUALITY OF DATA, DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS, MORTALITY)

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