JOURNAL OF THE AUSTRALIAN POPULATION ASSOCIATION

Australia (Canberra) 41

NOVEMBER 1997 - VOLUME 14, NUMBER 2

99.41.1 - English – Philip REES, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (U.K.)

Problems and solutions in forecasting geographical populations (p. 145-166)

This paper asks the question: how does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? Following an exposition of the standard model, possible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. Decomposition, aggregation and parameterization are described, drawing on some new results. Issues in the temporal forecasting of model components are outlined and the alternative approach of using a spatial interaction model is considered. The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users. (METHODOLOGY, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, MODELS, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION)

99.41.2 - English – Mohammad Jalal ABBASI-SHAVAZI, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

An assessment of the own-children method of estimating fertility by birthplace in Australia (p. 167-185)

This paper examines the validity of the own-children method of fertility estimates derived from the 1991 Census by a detailed investigation of mortality assumptions, the presence of non-own children, age misreporting and undercount. A comparison of fertility measures derived alternatively from the census using the own-children method and from vital statistics for the period 1987-91 indicates remarkably similar rates for Australia-born women, and plausible results for long established migrant groups. The own-children fertility levels for some recently arrived migrant groups, however, were found to be misleading. It is suggested that the ownchildren method is useful for the study of differential current fertility in Australia. (AUSTRALIA, METHODOLOGY, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, POPULATION CENSUSES, VITAL STATISTICS, IMMIGRANTS)

99.41.3 - English – Frank TROVATO and N. M. LALU, Population Research Laboratory, Department of Sociology, The University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4 (Canada)

Changing sex differences in life expectancy in Australia between 1970 and 1990 (p. 187-200)

Between 1970 and 1990, Australia experienced a narrowing of its sex difference in life expectancy by just over one year, which is a substantial amount when compared to the experience of other industrialized nations. Most of this reduction materialized in the decade between 1980 and 1990. In this study we decompose the gender based survival difference in 1970, 1980 and 1990 into components that can be attributed to different causes of death. Our analysis indicates that a significant component of the constriction in the differential was due to males having made larger gains than females over time with respect to heart disease, accidents and violence excluding suicide, and lung cancer. A large part of the narrowing in female-male difference in life expectancy can be attributed to narrowing sex differences in mortality in the older ages. We discuss these findings in the context of emerging epidemiological trends in the industrialized world, and the implications these have for the future of the sex differential in survival. (AUSTRALIA, LIFE EXPECTANCY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, CAUSES OF DEATH, MORTALITY TRENDS)

99.41.4 - English – Zhongwei ZHAO, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

Demographic systems in historic China: Some new findings from recent research (p. 201-232)

Up to the 1980s, studies of Chinese population history were largely confined to the examination of aggregate population figures collected at national or provincial levels. Since then, however, investigations into Chinese demographic history have entered a new stage. There has been an increasing amount of research based on the examination of demographic data recorded at the level of individuals. Although the number of studies is still relatively small, they have already provided some interesting findings. This paper, by summarizing these developments, provides new information on past mortality, fertility and marriage patterns. In the light of these findings, a number of widely held beliefs about the traditional Chinese demographic system are critically examined. (CHINA, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH)

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