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Belgium (Brussels) 38
BEVOLKING EN GEZIN
1998 - VOLUME 27, NUMBER 1
99.38.1 - Dutch - Jan H. M. NELISSEN, Katholieke Universiteit Brabant, WORC, Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen, Postbus 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg (Netherlands)
Differential mortality and the reshuffling effect of the social security system (Differentiële sterfte en de herverdelende werking van het sociale zekerheidsstelsel) (p. 1-16)
Research on the progressivity of social security generally does not take into account the existence of differences in mortality rates between socioeconomic groups. These differences result for the Netherlands in a difference in life expectancy between low and high educated men of about 4.5 years. On a lifetime basis this results in a loss of about DfL. 90,000 for the low educated group in comparison with the high educated group. As a consequence the return from various social security scheme does not appear to be anymore the highest for low educated persons. The middle group now gains in particular from the system. The redistributive impact of the social security system, as measured by the lleilcoefficient, is decreased by about 6% due to the differences in life expectancy. (NETHERLANDS, SOCIAL SECURITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, PUBLIC FINANCE)
99.38.2 - Dutch - Caroline GIJSELINCKX, Centrum voor Sociaal Beleid, Universiteit Antwerpen, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Anvers (Belgium)
The dynamics of poverty in Belgium (Bestaansonzekerheid in dynamisch perspectief) (p. 17-43)
Panel-analysis shows that long-term as well as short-term poverty seems to be concentrated among a clearly identifiable group: the low-skilled. The direct effect of the level of education is significant. Furthermore, lifecycle-transitions and changes in labour market position seem to effect the poverty-risk of the low-skilled more. (BELGIUM, POVERTY, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)
99.38.3 - Dutch - Henk TER HEIDE, Machtelderf 13, 2743 HD Waddinxveen (Netherlands)
Half a century of regional population projections in the Netherlands (Een halve eeuw regionale bevolkingsvooruitberekeningen in Nederland) (p. 45-77)
Ever since its inception the National Spatial Planning Agency in the Netherlands has been active in the field of regional population projections. Twice the Agency established a Committee for Regional Population Forecasts: the first (1943-1963) was charged with developing projection methodology, the second (1972-today) monitors cooperation with other government agencies (notably, at present, the Directorate-General for Housing). This article describes the history of this regional population projection activity. It deals with the choices made at different tiines with respect to the six steps of the projection process: systems identification, systems measurement, systems analysis, systems modelling, hypothesis formulation and projection, validation and monitoring. It attempts to explain these choices by referring to policy development, scientific advances, sociocultural factors, organisational factors, and the influence of individual actors. (NETHERLANDS, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, HISTORY, METHODOLOGY, PUBLIC SERVICES)
99.38.4 - Dutch - Ad VOSSEN et Jan NELISSEN, Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen, Katholieke Universiteit Brabant, Postbus 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg (Netherlands)
Single elderly people and the meaning of the age difference between partners: causes and consequences (Alleenstaande ouderen en de betekenis van het leeftijdsverschil tussen partners : oorzaken en gevolgen) (p. 79-105)
The central question in this article is how demographic factors influence the numerical development of single elderly people. The answer is searched for along two different routes. Based on life and marriage tables rates are calculated expressing the risk to become single at certain ages, hereby controlling for the difference in life expectancy and age at marriage. Next, an analysis has been made of the influence of the size of birth cohorts on the stability at the marriage market. Using microsimulation the central research question focusses on the impact of the age difference on the proportions of single people in the future and its consequences for the population in homes for the elderly and nursing homes, as well as for public old age pension expenditures. As a general conclusion it was found that a decreasing difference in the age of partners will result in a more balanced distribution of male and female single persons, but that the overall benefit is limited. (AGED, CELIBACY, AGE, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)
99.38.5 - English - Jerzy Z. HOLZER and Irena KOWALSKA, Warsaw School of Economics, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Al. Niepodleglosci 162, PL-02 554 Warsaw (Poland)
Recent demographic trends in Poland (p. 107-118)
Like other Central and Eastern European countries Poland is confronted with significant changes in demographic trends mainly due to the state to market transition. Major challenges wait for solutions. The article gives a short overview of the most prominent recent shifts in the nuptiality, fertility, mortality and migration trends in Poland. (POLAND, POPULATION SITUATION)
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