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France (Paris) 23
ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE
1994 ? 3, NUMBER 273
99.23.1 - French - Alain JACQUOT
Migrations and imbalanced aging across French regions (Les migrations et l'in?gal vieillissement des r?gions fran?aises) (p. 3-16)
All the French regions aged from 1975 to 1990, but some aged more than others. The rise in the average age varies from less than one year in the Paris area to virtually three years in Lorraine. Contrary to population belief, of the two factors that contribute to aging, natural trends (births and deaths) still have the edge over the effect of population migrations across regions. The only exception to this is in the Paris area, due to the influence of Paris itself, where youthfulness caused by migrations is on a more or less equal footing with "natural" aging. Conversely, migration contributes the most to the increase in the average age in the western French regions, with the joint effects of young people leaving and the over-60s returning. (FRANCE, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS, NATURAL MOVEMENT, INTERNAL MIGRATION)
99.23.2 - French - Laurent BISAULT, Vincent DESTIVAL and Dominique GOUX
Unskilled employment and unemployment in France (Emploi et ch?mage des " non-qualifi?s " en France) (p. 17-27)
In March 1994, 4,100,000 working people held "unskilled" jobs, representing nearly one out of every five jobs. "Unskilled" jobs are not disappearing. They are moving from industry to trade and services, and from manual positions to non-manual positions. The "unskilled" cover a majority of women. They are cleaners, Post Office workers, domestic employees and manual textile employees. These poorly qualified employees all have low wages and low qualifications in common, and yet they form a heterogeneous population. Some have job stability while others alternate between temporary work and period of unemployment. The youngest often take these jobs on a temporary basis in order to gain a foothold in the world of work before moving on to a more qualified job. The oldest are hardly prompted to climb the social ladder. Moreover, part-time work is being used increasingly in a large number of unskilled jobs. (FRANCE, OCCUPATIONAL COMPOSITION, UNSKILLED WORKERS, UNEMPLOYMENT)
1994 ? 4, NUMBER 274
99.23.3 - French - Quang Chi DINH
The population of France up to 2050 (La population de la France ? l'horizon 2050) (p. 7-32)
In spite of the drop in fertility rates and the slowdown in immigration observed over the last 20 years, the French population will continue to grow up to 2020. The hypotheses chosen show that, by this time, France will be a country of 60 to 66 million inhabitants. The three forecasts presented here differ essentially from the point of view of the number of children born by each woman by the end of her fertile life. Only the high hypothesis guarantees the replacement of generations and continued population growth. The forecast continuing decline in mortality rates, especially among the aged, is expected to speed up the aging of the population regardless of the fertility hypothesis used. Starting in 2020, the aged population of 60 years old and over will surpass the populationof under-20s in both number and their proportion of the total population. (FRANCE, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING)
99.23.4 - French - Linda DESCHAMPS and Jean-Pierre LE GLEAU
What will the French regional population picture be in 2015 (Quelle population pour les r?gions en 2015 ?) (p. 33-42)
The population of mainland France should increase by over 6,070,000 inhabitants over the period from 1990 to 2015. However, if current trends continue, this growth will not be spread evenly over the entire territory. There would be a higher concentration of people in the Mediterranean and Paris area regions, while the Massif Central and the North-East quarter of the country, with the exception of Alsace, would see their populations fall. Migratory movements should help the Paris area to best resist the general aging in France. The facts that the Paris area attracts students and young working people contributes to both its demographic growth and its youthfulness compared with the rest of France. Conversely, the aging of the West will escalate if the arrival of people around retirement age continues. (FRANCE, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION)
99.23.5 - French - Paul ESQUIEU
School pupil populations and needs for teachers: Trends and forecasts (Effectifs scolaires et besoins en enseignants : tendances et pr?visions) (p. 57-69)
Today, nearly all three-year-old children attend nursery schools. Preschooling for two year olds, which is the only rate likely to rise, could be favoured by the current decline in the birth rate. The number of pupils is falling in primary schools, where it is less usual for pupils to repeat a year, and is now only slightly higher than the number of children from six to ten years old. These schools should lose over 200,000 more pupils over the next ten years. Since 1985, there has been a sharp rise in admissions to the fifth form. The autumn term of 1993 saw 63% of a generation going into the upper sixth form and 58% passing the baccalaur?at in 1994. More moderate growth in the percentage of children in full-time education and the arrival of smaller generations mean that number will probably increase little over the next decade and may even decrease after the year 2000. A consequence of the rise in secondary-school attendance is that the number of pupils increased by 60% from 1983 to 1993. After a great demand for classes to prepare entry to the grandes ?coles (the top competitive-entry higher education establishments) as well as for the shorter higher education courses, students once more appear interested in the universities and in particular the teacher training institutes. The return to the teaching professions follows an active recruitment policy pursued since 1987. This should rule out the risks of a serious shortage of teachers. (FRANCE, SCHOOL ENROLMENT, TEACHERS, FORECASTS)
99.23.6 - French - Jacqueline GOTTELY and Annick VILAIN
Tomorrow's doctors (Les m?decins de demain) (p. 71-87)
The medical profession, like all the health professions, has grown considerably over the last 30 years. At the same time, economic development and improvements in social security have led to a sharp increase in the demand for treatment. Starting in the late 1960s, measures were taken to regulate the number of doctors trained and then to curb health expenditure. A slowdown in the growth of the number of doctors was observed as of 1978. By 2040, it will have prompted substantial changes in the profession: aging and a sharp rise in the number of women, especially among general practitioners. The recently attained proportion of one specialist for every two doctors should remain steady, but the group of specialists itself will probably become more diverse. Lastly, based on the hypothesis of a gradual return of restricted-intake measures, growth in the number of doctors should slow down more and more to a state of decrease as of 2010. These structural changes in the medical profession should alter its capacities to provide medical treatment. Consequently, the match beween treatment supply and demand should appear in a new context as of the beginning of the 21st century. (FRANCE, MEDICAL PERSONNEL, LABOUR MARKET, FORECASTS)
1994 ? 9/10, NUMBER 279-280
Reunification: The impact of migrations on potential growth in West Germany (R?unification : l'impact des migrations sur la croissance potentielle ouest-allemande) (p. 151-158)
The fall of the Berlin wall and the disappearance of the iron curtain have made massive immigration flows possible into West Germany. The increase in the working population as a result of reunification is estimated at 8% from 1988 to 1993. Using a certain number of hypotheses on labour efficiency, it is possible to evaluate the impact of reunification on West Germany's growth from 1988 to 1993. The additional growth generated by this increase in the labour force is approximately six points of GDP over the period. From 1989 to 1991, years during which immigration was at its height, the annual growth rate was 1.2 to 1.5 points higher than it would have been had reunification not taken place. Since 1991, this potential growth has been on the downturn and should become moderate in coming years. (GERMANY, IMMIGRATION, MANPOWER INCREASE, ECONOMIC GROWTH)
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