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Chile (Santiago) 21

NOTAS DE POBLACION

1998 - NUMBER 66

99.21.1 - Spanish ? D. J. VAN DE KAA, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)

A half century of research on fertility determinants: Statement and results (Narraciones ancladas : historia y resultados de medio siglo de investigaciones sobre los determinantes de la fecundidad) (p. 9-85)

A review of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility. It is argued that the quest for the determinants of fertility behaviour and change during that period can best be interpreted as the development of a series of sub-narratives from different disciplinary perspectives and orientations. These are normally based upon the initial narrative of the demographic transition and usually take the form of a verbal theory illustrated by a "box and arrow" diagram. On occasions formalization has been attempted. Different parts of the initial narrative have been highlighted at different times depending on policy interest, improvements in technical skills, availability of data, changes in social setting, and the degree of satisfaction with the dominant sub-narrative of the day. There is every reason to believe that the research process identified will continue and will lead to a further accumulation of knowledge. In fact, all important variables have probably already been identified. That it will, ultimately, lead to a single, consolidated narrative fully satisfactory for all settings and for all time is, however, highly unlikely. (THEORY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION)

99.21.2 - Spanish - Jos? Miguel GUZM?N, UNFPA Country Support Team, Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago (Chile)

Latin American contribution to the study of fertility determinants (El aporte latinoamericano al an?lisis de los factores determinantes de la fecundidad) (p. 87-109)

The present article discusses significant aspects of the Latin American contribution to the study of fertility determinants, presenting in systematic form the main theoretical and methodological approaches that have been developed in analysing the fertility transition in the region. The contributions of the authors discussed are grouped into four different lines of work: fertility and labour force reproduction; the family as a unit of fertility analysis; the role of the State in reducing the fertility rate through the adoption of direct redistributive social policies and other measures; and the dissemination of ideas as a determinant of the fertility transition. The article seeks to determine whether there is such a thing as a uniquely Latin American contribution to the subject, or whether much of that must be considered an intellectual reflection of work going on in other regions of the world. (LATIN AMERICA, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, FERTILITY DECLINE, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION)

99.21.3 - Spanish - Daniel MACADAR, Universidad de la Rep?blica Oriental del Uruguay, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (Uruguay), and Carlos MENDIVE, CEPAL, Montevideo (Uruguay)

Indirect estimation of income and proportion of poor households: A method of hierarchical few small areas (Estimac?on indirecta de ingresos y proporci?n de hogares pobres: una metodolog?a para jerarquizar ?reas menores) (p. 111-185)

The purpose of this paper is to produce indicators of income insufficiency at geographically disaggregated levels by combining information from the Continuous Household Survey (CHS) and the Population and Housing Censuses (PHC) of Uruguay, 1985. Statistical estimates of household income equations were made with the CHS data, and prediction was made for households on the basis of the census data. In order to implement this estimation strategy, equations were developed for household income and for poverty status by means of linear and logistic regression, using independent variables common to the survey and the census. Then, the estimated equations were used to predict income and poverty measures at various levels of disaggregation. The first level corresponds to the major aggregates of the CHS: Montevideo and the Urban Interior; a second one is the department level, the third consists of cities above 10,000 inhabitants, and lastly, the smaller areas (sections of Montevideo and towns under 10,000 inhabitants). These estimates allowed to construct a hierarchy of the geographical areas according to the proportion of poor households and other income distribution indicators, including measures of distance within the income distribution and of the intensity of poverty, which are not available from the conventional indicators of unsatisfied basic needs. (URUGUAY, METHODOLOGY, POVERTY, ESTIMATES, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION)

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