POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

United States of America (New York) 17

MARCH 1998 - VOLUME 24, NUMBER 1

99.17.1 - English - Ron LESTHAEGHE, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels (Belgium)

On theory development: Applications to the study of family formation (p. 1-14)

The further opening up of demography to related social science disciplines is a felicitous outcome, provided that this does not lead to a segregated set of mono-paradigmatic approaches or explanations. Hence, we need to go beyond the anchored narrative approach. In the philosophy of science, several paths for such further theory integration are available, and the present essay makes use of two such approaches: Imre Lakatos's program of "progressive problem shifts" and L. Jonathan Cohen's "inductive knowledge of comparative reliability." An application is made to three theories of the so-called second demographic transition, by showing that (1) these theories are by no means mutually exclusive, (2) their mechanisms are often interrelated and synergistic, and (3) the plausibility of a theory may depend on a chosen subgroup or context in time or space. Given these properties, such partial theories or separate narratives are prime candidates for inclusion into a more overarching multi-paradigmatic and multi-causal theory. (DEMOGRAPHY, SOCIAL SCIENCES, THEORY, METHODOLOGY, FAMILY FORMATION)

99.17.2 - English - Caroline BLEDSOE, Northwestern University (U.S.A.), Fatoumatta BANJA, University of North Carolina, Charlotte (U.S.A.), and Allan G. HILL, Harvard School of Public Health (U.S.A.)

Reproductive mishaps and western contraception: An African challenge to fertility theory (p. 15-58)

This article examines findings from rural Gambia that contradict Western views of the behavioral dynamics of high-fertility regimes. Findings on contraceptive use following miscarriages, stillbirths, and child deaths in rural Gambia contradict conventional child spacing explanations of contraceptive use in Africa. Examining these and other anomalies that challenge Western views of the dynamics of high-fertility regimes, this article demonstrates that rural Gambians do not perceive female reproductivity to be limited by chronological age or time. Instead, they view reproductive potential as a finite bodily capacity that can be exhausted well before menopause. Linking the processes of reproduction and senescence, the authors show that views of the cumulative reproductive tolls over the life course closely converge with the medical and biological entailments to high fertility. Looking through a fresh cultural lens at how Western population science has come to analyze fertility, the article shows that the Gambian view of the full range of "costs" of high fertility under difficult economic and medical conditions holds important lessons for fertility theory. (GAMBIA, THEORY, THEORETICAL EFFECTIVENESS, FERTILITY, HIGH FERTILITY ZONES, TRADITIONAL MEDICINE)

99.17.3 - English - Antonio GOLINI, Département de Démographie, Université "La Sapienza", Rome (Italy)

How low can fertility be? An empirical exploration (p. 59-74)

The author seeks to evaluate a possible minimum of both cohort and period fertility in a present-day population of large size. He argues that a fertility floor other than zero may be posited for several reasons. Based on European experiences he considered a situation in which 20 to 30 percent of women in a cohort remain childless and the remaining 70 to 80 percent have only one child. According to this empirically based hypothesis, a total fertility rate between 0.7 and 0.8 can be taken as the lower bound for cohort fertility. If the mean age at birth increases over time, the period total fertility rate could become temporarily about 9 percent less than the constant total fertility of cohorts that contribute to it. (FERTILITY DECLINE, TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, FERTILITY RATE, COHORT FERTILITY)

99.17.4 - English - Martin BROCKERHOFF, Policy Research Division, Population Council (U.S.A.), and Ellen BRENNAN, Population Policy Section, United Nations Population Division (U.S.A.)

The poverty of cities in developing regions (p. 75-114)

Since the 1970s, big cities of the developing world have experienced three unprecedented demographic changes: Most "mega-cities" (cities with 5 million residents or more) have absorbed huge population increments; other large cities have experienced, on average, a doubling of population size; and national populations have become increasingly concentrated in cities with one million or more residents. As a result of these and related changes, the long-standing presumption that living conditions are better for big-city residents has come into question. This study uses indicators of children's status and level of infant mortality to compare wellbeing across cities of one million or more residents and smaller settlements within developing regions. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the pronounced early survival advantage of big-city residents has declined steadily since the late 1970s and was no longer apparent by the early 1990s. In sub-Saharan Africa "mega-villages" of several hundred thousand people have emerged--places in which such basic human needs as adequate nutrition, schooling, and child health care are less fulfilled than they are even in small towns. In sum, findings suggest that sustainable development of large cities is dependent not only on efficient management, good governance, and sufficient resources, but is also related to cities' size and their rate of population growth. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, MEGALOPOLIS, URBAN CONCENTRATION, POPULATION GROWTH, LIVING CONDITIONS, POVERTY, URBAN DEVELOPMENT)

99.17.5 - English - Frederick A. B. MEYERSON, Yale University (U.S.A.)

Population, carbon emissions, and global warming: The forgotten relationship at Kyoto (p. 115-130)

This article examines the historical relationship between population growth and carbon emissions and the challenges facing the signatories of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on global warming. In assessing the targets agreed upon at Kyoto, the wide variation in projected population change among developed countries is a significant yet largely ignored factor. The Protocol's national emissions caps will require relatively rapidly growing countries, including the United States and Canada, to cut per capita emissions by 20 percent or more by 2010, while the European Union, Japan, and other signatories with slower or negative population growth face a much less daunting task. Even assuming the Protocol is successfully implemented, the global warming treaty cannot succeed without the near-term participation of developing countries, many of which already or will soon produce excessive carbon emissions as a combined result of large population size and fairly high per capita carbon use. Internationally, population stabilization policies will also be a key determinant of the success of any climate plan. (AIR POLLUTION, CLIMATE, POPULATION GROWTH, INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY)

99.17.6 - English - Alain MARCOUX, Population Programme Service, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome (Italy)

The feminization of poverty: Claims, facts, and data needs (p. 131-140)

It is frequently asserted, without supporting evidence, that 70 percent of the world's poor are female. This study notes the implausibility of that percentage, which would imply some 500 million female poor in excess of male numbers, almost entirely among adults. It examines whether there are likely assumptions that could warrant the claim. The study shows that poor female-headed households account for an excess of less than 100 million females living in poverty, and that no other factor can account for the remainder of the supposed gap between wide male and female numbers in poverty. It presents data showing that the global proportion of females among members of poor households is on the order of 55 percent. Finally, it proposes directions for developing more policy-relevant knowledge on the feminization of poverty. (WOMEN'S STATUS, POVERTY, ONE-PARENT FAMILY)

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