DEMOGRAPHY

United States of America (Washington, DC) 09

DEMOGRAPHY

FEBRUARY 1998 - VOLUME 35 - NUMBER 1

99.09.1 - English - Samuel H. PRESTON, Irma T. ELO, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.), Andrew FOSTER, Department of Economics, Brown University (U.S.A.), and Haishan FU, Alan Guttmacher Institute (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: spreston@pop.upenn.edu

Reconstructing the size of the African American population by age and sex, 1930-1990 (p. 1-21)

We estimate the size of the African American population in five-year age groups at census dates from 1930 to 1990 using a three-part strategy. For cohorts born after 1935, we follow the U.S. Census Bureau in using classical demographic analysis. To estimate the size of cohorts born before 1895, we use extinct-generation estimates. For remaining cohorts, we implement an age/period/cohort model of census counts. All approaches are applied to a data set in which the age distribution of deaths has been corrected for age misreporting. Results provide strong confirmation of the basic validity of Census Bureau estimates of census undercounts for African Americans while extending estimates to new cohorts and periods. Our estimates are less consistent with an historical series prepared by Coale and Rives (1973). (UNITED STATES, HISTORY, BLACKS, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, CENSUSES, UNDERENUMERATION)

99.09.2 - English - Avery M. GUEST, Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (U.S.A.), Gunnar ALMGREN, School of Social Work, University of Washington (U.S.A.), and Jon M. HUSSEY, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: peto@homer.u.washington.edu

The ecology of race and socioeconomic distress: Infant and working-age mortality in Chicago (p. 23-34)

We examine the effects of education, unemployment, and racial segregation on age-, sex-, and race-specific mortality rates in racially defined Chicago community areas from 1989 to 1991. Community sociooeconomic factors account for large observed areal variations in infant and working-age mortality, but especially working-age mortality for the black population. For black men, the mortality consequences of living in economically distressed communities are quite severe. Segregation effects on mortality are more modest and largely operate through neighborhood socioeconomic conditions, although some direct effects of segregation on mortality for blacks are apparent. (UNITED STATES, BLACKS, RACES, SEGREGATION, POVERTY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)

99.09.3 - English - Karl ESCHBACH, Department of Sociology, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204-3474 (U.S.A.), Khalil SUPPLE, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin (U.S.A.), and C. Matthew SNIPP, Department of Sociology, Stanford University (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: eschbach@uh.edu

Changes in racial identification and the educational attainment of American Indians, 1970-1990 (p. 35-43)

We use data from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 census public-use files to assess the impact of newly identified Indians on the educational attainment of American Indians who were at least 25 years old in 1970. We test the hypotheses that this impact was limited to metropolitan areas and to states with small Indian populations. We find that educational attainment for American Indians rose sharply between 1970 and 1990 and that changes in racial identification were an important component of this increase in 1980 but not in 1990. Increases in educational attainment were concentrated in metropolitan areas and occurred in states with large and small Indian populations. (UNITED STATES, AMERINDIANS, CENSUSES, RACES, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)

99.09.4 - English - James C. CRAMER, Department of Sociology, University of California at Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: jcramer@ucdavis.edu

Population growth and air quality in California (p. 45-56)

Demographers are often interested in the environmental impacts of population growth. I examine the impact of growth specifically on air quality in California. In recent decades, California has suffered from notoriously polluted air and has experienced rapid population growth. Despite the population growth, air quality actually has improved since the early 1980s due to aggressive regulatory efforts. Using data for 56 counties, I analyze the contribution of population growth to trends in atmospheric emissions of five regulated pollutants from 1980 to 1990, controlling for trends in per capita income and regulatory efforts. The analysis is disaggregated by source of emissions and demonstrates that population growth is strongly associated with some sources of emissions but not with others. Thus, the overall impact of population growth depends upon the composition of production and consumption activities in each county. I also explore whether the trend in number of households predicts better than the trend in number of persons, and whether the impact of population growth depends upon the age structure or source of growth (immigration or domestic increase). Generally, these alternative specifications of population do not improve the models of atmospheric emissions. (UNITED STATES, ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION GROWTH, AIR POLLUTION)

99.09.5 - English - Truong SI ANH, Population, Labor, and Social Affairs, Institute for Economic Research, Hô Chi Minh-Ville (Viętnam), John KNODEL, David LAM, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590 (U.S.A.), and Jed FRIEDMAN, Economics Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: jknodel@umich.edu.

Family size and children's education in Vietnam (p. 57-70)

Data from the nationally representative 1994 Inter-Censal Demographic Survey are used to examine the association between family size and children's schooling in Vietnam. The data provide information on several education measures for all children over age 10, including children no longer residing in the household. Although a clear inverse bivariate association between family size and children's school attendance and educational attainment is evident, multivariate analysis controlling for urban/rural residence, region, parents' education, household wealth, and child's age, reveals that much of this association, especially that predicting educational attainment, is attributable to these other influences. Moreover, much of the effect that remains after statistical adjustment for the other influences is seen mainly at the largest family sizes. We consider the implications of these findings for current population policy in Vietnam and the possible features of the Vietnamese context that might account for the modest association. (VIET NAM, FAMILY SIZE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCHOOL SUCCESS)

99.09.6 - English - Sonalde DESAI and Soumya ALVA, Center on Population, Gender and Social Inequality, University of Maryland at College Park, 3114 Art-Sociology Building, College Park, MD 20742-1315 (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: sdesai@bss1.umd.edu

Maternal education and child health: Is there a strong causal relationship? (p. 71-81)

Using data from the first round of Demographic and Health Surveys for 22 developing countries, we examine the effect of maternal education on three markers of child health: infant mortality, children's height-for-age, and immunization status. In contrast to other studies, we argue that although there is a strong correlation between maternal education and markers of child health, a causal relationship is far from established. Education acts as a proxy for the socioeconomic status of the family and geographic area of residence. Introducing controls for husband's education and access to piped water and toilet attenuate the impact of maternal education on infant mortality and children's height-for-age. This effect is further reduced by controlling for area of residence through the use of fixed-effects models. In the final model, maternal education has a statistically significant impact on infant mortality and height-for-age in only a handful of countries. In contrast, maternal education remains statistically significant for chidren's immunization status in about one-half of the countries even after individual-level and community-level controls are introduced. (DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, MOTHER, CHILD DEVELOPMENT, INFANT MORTALITY, ANTHROPOMETRY, IMMUNIZATION)

99.09.7 - English - David M. BLAU, Department of Economics, Gardner Hall, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3305 (U.S.A.), and Philip K. ROBINS, Department of Economics, University of Miami (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: david_blau@unc.edu

A dynamic analysis of turnover in employment and child care (p. 83-96)

The causes of turnover in child-care arrangements and maternal employment are analysed using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, supplemented with state-level information on child-care markets. The results indicate that turnover in child care is quite high and that child and family characteristics help explain turnover. Important factors include the mother's wage, the cost of child care, age of the child, and previous child-care decisions. The reduced-form nature of the analysis makes it difficult to determine whether these factors are important because they are associated with unstable child-care supply or because they affect family decisions, conditional on supply factors. The results provide no direct evidence that child-care turnover is higher in states with more unstable child-care markets. (UNITED STATES, CHILD REARING, DAY CARE CENTRES, LABOUR MARKET, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)

99.09.8 - English - Richard W. JOHNSON, Institute for Health, Health Care Policy and Aging Research, Rutgers University, 30 College Avenue, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (U.S.A.), and Julie DaVANZO, RAND (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: rjohn@rci.rutgers.edu

Economic and cultural influences on the decision to leave home in peninsular Malaysia (p. 97-114)

Although the departure of children from the parental home is an important life-cycle event, few studies have investigated nest-leaving in developing countries. Using retrospective data from the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey, we estimate hazard models of nest-leaving in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the departure of children, especially sons, responds to economic incentives, including housing costs, family businesses, education, and economic growth, and that ethnic differences in nest-leaving are important. We also find that the median age of departure from home has declined sharply over the past 40 years, a period of rapid social and economic change in Malaysia. (MALAYSIA, FAMILY NUCLEUS, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, OUT-MIGRATION, DEPARTURES, CHILDREN)

99.09.9 - English - Fuqin BIAN, John R. LOGAN, Department of Sociology, SUNY at Albany, Social Science 340, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.), and Yanjie BIAN, Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: j.logan@albany.edu

Intergenerational relations in urban China: Proximity, contact, and help to parents (p. 115-124)

Although most older Chinese parents live with an adult son or daughter, most adult offspring do not live with parents. We examine the relations of these noncoresident offspring with parents in terms of proximity, frequency of contact, and exchange of help. Based on a 1993 random sample survey conducted in two major Chinese cities, we find that although rates of coresidence are high, noncoresident sons and daughters live close to parents, have frequent contact with their parents, and provide regular help to parents. Relationships with noncoresident sons and daughters are unaffected by whether parents coreside with another child. There is some evidence of closer relationships with sons than with daughters, but parents without a son receive as much help from all children as do parents with sons. The effects of these and other predictors are estimated in multivariate analyses, and results are interpreted in terms of the persistence or change of traditional family norms. (CHINA, FAMILY NUCLEUS, AGED, PARENTS, SONS, DAUGHTERS, HUMAN RELATIONS)

99.09.10 - English - Rebecca A. LONDON, Berkeley Planning Associates, 440 Grand Avenue, Suite 500, Oakland, CA 94610 (U.S.A.)

E-Mail: rebecca@bpacal.com

Trends in single mothers' living arrangements from 1970 to 1995: Correcting the Current Population Survey (p. 125-131)

I examine trends in single mothers' living arrangements using data from the 1970-1995 Current Population Surveys. I create a consistent trend by correcting a coding problem that stemmed from the misidentification of children living in multigenerational households before 1984. Revised estimates show that the number of single mothers in each of these years was undercounted by 200,000-300,000. All of these women were subfamily heads living with their parents, and the problem occurred disproportionately among teens and black women. The uncorrected trend falsely indicates a large increase in the share of single mothers living with their parents. In reality, there was little change in the percentage of single mothers living in this arrangement over the time period. However, the data indicate a large increase in the rate of cohabitation and a comparable decline in the rate of living independently among this population. (UNITED STATES, UNMARRIED MOTHERS, UNDERENUMERATION, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, COHABITATION)

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