Back to Home page

Poland (Warsaw) 90

POLISH POPULATION REVIEW

1997 - NUMBER 10

Household and Family on the Polish Territories in Historical Perspective

Coordinator: Cezary KUKLO

98.90.1 - English - Anna KAMLER

The peasant's family of Malopolska in the 15th and 16th century (p. 13-27)

The aim of this paper was to present the peasant's family as a basic group in the rural society. Criteria taken into account by peasants while marital selection were of special interest to the author of the paper and so were economic foundations of a future family, its size and structure. Main sources of information were rural court's registers from the territory of Southern Malopolska of the 15th and 16th centuries. However, the cases of poorer peasants were often skipped in those registers. Within a village marriages were contracted according to the principle of social and material selection. Among those leaving a village women prevailed which stemmed from financial provisions of daughters rather than from constraints in the domanial law forbidding sons to leave their village. On average only three children survived in the peasant's family and the total number of the family's members was 6-7 people excluding servants. Land was a factor integrating the peasant's family, however, some emotional ties are also to be observed among members of a family. (POLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, FAMILY, MATE SELECTION, FAMILY SIZE)

98.90.2 - English - Zbigniew KWASNY

The peasant's family of Silesia in the 18th and in the first half of the 19th century (p. 28-38)

In the 18th and in the first half of the 19th century the peasant's family of Silesia was changing very slowly. Under clear differences in the demographic development and in family relations between the Upper Silesia and the Lower Silesia, main changes in both districts were similar. The higher social group their parents belonged to, the sooner children set up their own families. The average marriage expectancy was declining, the lower the social status of a marriage was. Much the same situation was with children. Among well-off families there were more children and they used to stay with their parents longer. The higher the social status of a family was, the bigger was the size of the biological and economic family. Among biological families, two-generation families prevailed. The increase in a family size up to three generations was determined by the increase in its wealth. In the period under consideration serf's and yeoman's families on the one hand and cottage-worker's and tenant's families on the other hand were getting much alike. Basic families or basic families with strangers gained in importance. Children not taking over the farm but establishing their own families were in danger of losing the social status their parents used to enjoy. The lower the social status of a family was, the less a danger like this was. In a reverse relation was the possibility to enter a higher social group due to a marriage contract. (POLAND, HISTORY, PEASANTRY, FAMILY, FAMILY COMPOSITION, INTERGENERATIONAL SOCIAL MOBILITY)

98.90.3 - English - Krzysztof A. MAKOWSKI

The family of Poznan of the 19th century - An outline (p. 39-49)

The paper - basing mainly on marriage registers - deals with selected social and demographic problems of Catholic and Protestant families in the capital of Wielkopolska in the 19th century. There are a lot premises indicating that 19th-century Poznan was within European Marriage Pattern. This is testified by the fact that the inhabitants of Poznan used to set up families at late age, by low age difference between partners of the marriage and by a relatively low birth rate. All throughout the 19th century, the Polish Catholics inhabiting Poznan were acquiring the bourgeois-Protestant ethos instead of the rural-Catholic one, the latter so characteristic of present Poland. (POLAND, HISTORY, FAMILY, CATHOLICS, PROTESTANTS, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES)

98.90.4 - English - Anna ZARNOWSKA

Working family in the kingdom of Poland of the end of the 19th century (p. 50-75)

Growing economic stabilisation of working family is seen in big, urbanised, industrial centres. This is associated with workers' separation from their rural homelands and with their simultaneous attachment to the new place of work outside agriculture. At the turn of the 19th century, such a tendency was accompanied by another contradictory phenomenon consisting in undermining and breaking family bonds due to mass economic migrations within the frontiers of the Kingdom of Poland and abroad. It was an advantage on the labour market for a worker - especially for an unskilled worker - not to have their own family. A tendency towards economic stabilisation of working family occurred as early as at the end of the 19th century in the technologically advanced branches of industry such as metallurgy, metal, textile or chemical industries that is in branches that used to be located in urban centres. The most important element of such stabilisation was, on one hand, full-time work of family heads and, on the other hand, more frequent than ever before employment of other family members. An increase of the number of children was clear evidence of improving economic stabilisation of working family. At the beginning of the 20th century there followed an increase of the birth rate in industrial regions of the Kingdom of Poland. Only after the first stage of industrial development was over, did the birth rate in industrial centres become higher than in agricultural areas. (POLAND, HISTORY, FAMILY, WORKING CLASS, MIGRATION, SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, FERTILITY)

98.90.5 - English - Regina RENTZ

Provincial family in Poland between the wars on the basis of the district of Kielce (p. 76-89)

The purpose of this study is to render the family life in provincial towns of Poland in the interwar period. Peculiarity of the source data and its incompleteness had it that the author of this paper paid her attention only to some chosen aspects of family, namely to the following ones: family patterns advocated by religious institutions, the role of wife and man in provincial family, influence of religion on the upbringing of children and conflicts between parents and children. In her conclusions, the author states that it is hard to speak about some definite educational pattern. (POLAND, HISTORY, FAMILY, FAMILY LIFE)

98.90.6 - English - Iwona KULESZA

Divorces in the Polish families of magnates between the 16th and the 18th century. Some research issues (p. 90-97)

The aim of this paper is to present circumstances and causes of divorces dispensed by the Catholic Church to the Polish nobility. The object of the research are families of magnates. Historical range of the research covers the period from the beginning of the 16th to the first half of the 19th century. The object of the research are 82 families of magnates mentioned in "Genealogia" by W. Dworzaczek. The source data base consists of: records of consistories of the Roman Catholic Church, manorial records, letters and diaries. 84 divorce cases have been investigated on the basis of source information of the period between the 16th and 17th centuries. It follows from the statistical analysis that most part of those divorces took place in the 18th century which speaks for an increase in the tendency to divorce. Blood relationship and parental constraint were most often mentioned as causes of divorces. The reasons raised in the consistorial courts of justice were usually not the actual ones. Most couples got divorce for the lack of offspring. Divorces were quite common phenomena frequently occurring in the families of magnates. Further investigation into the issue of divorces should take into consideration the following aspects: age of persons getting divorced, cost of divorced proceedings, commitment of outsiders during divorce proceedings and - as far as it is possible - vicissitudes of children from the broken families. (POLAND, HISTORY, RULING CLASS, ANNULMENT OF MARRIAGE)

98.90.7 - English - Cezary KUKLO

Illegitimate births and foundlings in Warsaw at the pre-industrial age (p. 98-109)

The aim of this paper is to determine relationships between the number of births of illegitimate children and foundlings and the socio-economic structure of Warsaw being the biggest Polish city of the pre-industrial age. At the end of the 17th century the congregation of the parish of Holy Cross was characterised by a significant share of illegitimate children (8-8.5% of the total). This share was even higher than analogous shares for bigger French towns. It reached its highest level at the beginning of the Polish Enlightenment (13% for illegitimate children and 6% for foundlings). The analysis shows a clear relationship between the increase in the number of baptisms of illegitimate children and war operations or periods of food shortages. Births of illegitimate children resulted from spring and summer as well as from January (traditional period of balls and festivals) conceptions. The lack of personal data concerning godparents impedes to carry out an investigation into the structure of this social environment. (POLAND, CAPITAL CITY, HISTORY, ILLEGITIMATE CHILDREN, ABANDONED CHILDREN)

98.90.8 - English - Waldemar PASIEKA

Marital selection of witnesses of weddings taken place in the parish of the Holy Cross in Opole of the first half of the 19th century (p. 110-145)

The paper was elaborated on the basis of 3,220 certificates of marriages registered in the Roman Catholic parish of the Holy Cross in Opole between 1801 and 1850. A quantitative analysis was carried out with respect to some main socio-demographic characteristics. The parish of Opole was very vast; it consisted of one town and 24 neighbouring villages. The Catholic made up 3/4 of the population of Opole but their share declined considerably during the period under investigation. In the parish of Opole social barriers and divisions varied depending on the social environment. Opole was characterised by large socio-vocational mobility. The range of the social mobility of peasants was limited only to their own environment. All throughout the period under consideration marriages contracted by grooms and brides dwelling in a same place of residence predominated. A permanent increase of the territorial mobility of the newly-married had been occurring since the 30s of last century. Some conclusions drawn on the basis of the research outcomes concerning marital selection were also borne out by the study of the process of the selection of wedding witnesses. (POLAND, HISTORY, MATE SELECTION, SOCIAL MOBILITY, OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY, GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY)

98.90.9 - English - Elzbieta KOSCIK

Environment of the newly married in Opole in the middle of the 19th and at the beginning of the 20th century (p. 146-160)

The article presents the environment of the newly married in Opole in the middle of the 19th and at the beginning of the 20th century. The investigation substantiates the notion that on the turn of the 19th century existed a tendency to mutual penetration of different social groups. Conclusions to be drawn from this research correspond to the outcomes of the research on social and occupational movements of inhabitants of Opole. Observations inferred from the analysis of witness selection procedure support the above mentioned notion as well as they testify to the existence of intragroup polarisation. Only peasants showed an inclination to stick to their own social group while selecting a spouse. This is confirmed by the contents of marriage registers. The newly married in Opole, like all over the whole Silesia, aimed at fast adapting to their new occupational and social environment. If they came from outside Opole they used to invite people from their new surroundings as the witnesses of their weddings. (POLAND, HISTORY, COUPLE, SOCIAL MOBILITY, OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY)

98.90.10 - English - Marta KURKOWSKA

Birth control in the industrial age. Cracow 1878-1939 (p. 161-184)

The article deals with the issue of birth control in Poland at the age of industrialisation. The research was carried out on the basis of historical data from Cracow and its neighbourhood. The source information came from: records of the District Court of Cracow in the period 1918-1939, records of postmortem examinations conducted in the Department of Forensic Medicine in Collegium Medicum at Jagiellonian University in the years 1878-1939, as well as from medical reviews of that time. The data shows some means implemented by women of the lowest social groups to limit the number of their offspring. Back-street abortions along with so called "factories of little angels" were a substitute for contraceptives as the latter were almost unknown in Poland until the 30s of the 20th century. (POLAND, HISTORY, INDUCED ABORTION)

98.90.11 - English - Maria NIETYKSZA

The occupational structure of young people in the light of the censuses of 1882 and 1897 (p. 185-200)

At the end of the 19th century, Warsaw - the biggest city on the Polish territories - was developing very fast as the centre of industry and other multivarious activities. Its demographic growth was to a large extent determined by migrations. The 80s of the 19th century mark the beginning of introduction of Russian labour legislation which covered all the Kingdom of Poland. The legislation dealt with the terms of employing women and people under age. Two censuses - a local census taken place in Warsaw in 1882 and the all-Russian census of 1897 - enable - despite some differences in the way the census forms were elaborated - to look into the issues connected with employment of children and young people. The analysis covers the share of children and young people in the whole population, their economic activity, their share in individual branches by age and gender. The author tried to catch the changes undergoing in this field and to show interrelations between these phenomena and changes taking place in the occupational structure of the whole Warsaw population. Effects of introduction of the labour legislation were also tackled. (POLAND, CAPITAL CITY, HISTORY, YOUNG WORKERS, OCCUPATIONAL COMPOSITION)

98.90.12 - English - Boleslaw KUMOR

Status animarum books in the Polish dioceses (up to the year 1918) (p. 201-212)

The earliest synodal orders to obligatory keep Status animarum books in the Polish dioceses stem from the 17th century. This was connected - likewise in the whole Europe with Renaissance and reforms of the parish priesthood. Supreme inspections of parishes were to control the state of keeping Status animarum books. At the beginning of the 17th century these inspections, as a rule, stated the lack of the books which was changed one century later. Defeats of the Polish armies and the loss of independence introduced new church customs into the Polish territories annexed by Austria, Prussia and Russia. This was happening under the influence of particular occupant's legislation. In the Austrian and Prussian sectors a far-going extension of the range of entries in Status animarum books took place, so that the books are valuable source on the history of particular families in a given parish. Most Status animarum books of that period survived up to the present. However, as far as the territory of Poland annexed by Russia is concerned - due to a difficult situation of the Church having been further aggravated after the January Uprising - the books were, most probably, not being kept so that they were introduced only after 1905. (POLAND, HISTORY, POPULATION REGISTERS)

98.90.13 - English - Mieczyslaw KEDELSKI

Territorial diversification of the population dynamics and of the structure of households in the country of Wielkopolska in the light of so called historical tables of 1795 and 1800 (p. 213-227)

The aim of this paper is to describe the relations between the population dynamics and social and demographic structure of households and their size in Wielkopolska at the end of the 18th century. The object of this analysis is rural population inhabiting precisely delimited area of the Department of Poznan, that is the area of Poland before the third partitioning. The basic statistical data stem from so-called "historical tables" of 1795 and 1800. The number of houses - being subject to taxes but also being symptomatic units with respect to the number of households - is going to be our datum. Some deficiencies were detected in the execution of the first census of 1795 which is reflected by enormous differentiation in the population dynamics as well as in indices of shares characterising the structure of households in the years 1795-1800. (POLAND, HISTORY, POPULATION DYNAMICS, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION)

98.90.14 - English - Michal KOPCZYNSKI

Life cycle of individuals in the country of Poland at the end of the 18th century (p. 228-247)

The aim of this dissertation is to observe the life cycle of individuals and of family in the country of the pre-industrial age basing on parish censuses of the end of the 18th century. In Kujawy, the relationship between marriage and the establishment of a new household was not so strong as in other countries of Western and Central Europe, although nuclear family was predominant there. Besides, the author formulates an interesting research hypothesis that both improvement in the living conditions and a change in demographic pattern caused by general economic development were the factors underlying the strong increase in the number of population in the Kingdom of Poland in the 19th century. (POLAND, HISTORY, LIFE CYCLE, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE, POPULATION GROWTH)

98.90.15 - English - Cezary KUKLO

Typology of households in the Polish town of the pre-industrial age (p. 248-265)

The aim of this paper is to determine basic types of households in the Polish town of the pre-industrial age. The object of an analysis are outcomes of parish censuses conducted in six Old Polish towns (being three little towns: Radziejów, Olkusz, Praszka, one town of medium size: Wielun and two big ones: Cracow and Warsaw). The investigation deals with the internal structure of households, their average size and gender of the family heads. Analyses performed proved that Old Polish towns - especially the big ones - were characterised not only by considerable feminisation but also by high shares of females living alone. At the end of the 18th century, two-generation simple households prevailed in little towns (79-85%) whereas the share of extended families was very low (0.8-8%). It is characteristic that in the two biggest towns considerable share constituted households of single people. A household run by a male consisted of 4-5 people on average whereas that run by a female of 2-3 people. (POLAND, CITIES, HISTORY, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HOUSEHOLD SIZE)

98.90.16 - English - Konrad WNEK and Lidia A. ZYBLIKIEWICZ

Structure of the household and city space in Cracow in 1880 (p. 266-278)

This article presents outcomes of a preliminary analysis of the structure of households in Cracow in 1880. It deals mainly with the number of city population, the number of households, gender and marital structure of these households as well as the size of the basic and extended family and the number of servants employed in particular city quarters. This data, was set against information on dwelling-conditions of the city population such as the total city surface and the surface of its quarters, the number of houses and rooms to live as well as the number of public buildings. The basis of this research were forms of the common census of 1880 compiled into a data base and publications of the Statistical Bureau of Cracow (1887). (POLAND, CITIES, HISTORY, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HOUSING, URBAN STRUCTURE)

1997 - NUMBER 11

98.90.17 - English - Walentyna IGNATCZYK, Family Research Centre, University of Economics in Poznan, ul. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-907 Poznan (Poland)

Procreative behaviours and attitudes of young marriages in Poland according to their standard of living (p. 7-28)

The paper focuses on the issue whether the changing standards of living, housing and financial status are of a significant impact on the modification of the family values' system. We present results of an independent panel survey conducted in 1993 among persons who had been single in 1986 and changed their marital status by the observation time. It was attempted to identify to what degree the standard of living of young marriages with married life to 7 years determined their pro family behaviours in the period of socio-economic transformation in Poland. The results of the observation showed that beside the psychological factor that continues to be the major determinant of procreative behaviours the role of the economic factor increased. At the present stage of transition the standard of living makes young marriages reduce the level of the realised parity in relation to that viewed as appropriate. The dominating model of parity considered to be appropriate is i=2 children. For Polish marriages the child is a superior good and having it still is the effect of the psychological factor. On the other hand, the standard of living only modifies the number of children in the family, encouraging reducing the planned family model to be realised. Polish society at the end of the 20th century will comprise families with the prevailing parity model i=2 children and elimination of the model with many children. (POLAND, FERTILITY DECLINE, STANDARD OF LIVING, IDEAL FAMILY SIZE, FAMILY SIZE)

98.90.18 - English - Biruta SKRETOWICZ, Institute of Agricultural Medicine, ul. Jaczewskiego 2, 20-950 Lublin (Poland)

A contribution to the problem of premature mortality among Polish population (p. 29-39)

The term "premature mortality" is usually understood as a part of general mortality among people under 65. The level of premature mortality is considered as a good indicator of the state of health of a population. In Poland, similar to other post-communist countries, this level is very high. The study was based on official statistics concerning deaths which covered the period: 1960-1995. Over the last 35 years the percentage of premature deaths in Poland decreased systematically: from 55.5% to 33.2%. Males were at higher risk of premature death compared to females. Since the mid-1960s the intensity of deaths among males over 30 was rapidly growing up, during the same period the intensity of deaths among females was relatively stable, with a slight downward tendency. The results of the analysis showed an unprecedented increase in excess mortality among males. The rates expressing the excess of death among males over females increased two fold. Significant consequences of premature mortality may be sought by analysis of selected life-span parameters. (POLAND, MORTALITY TRENDS, DEATH RATE, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

98.90.19 - English - Aleksandra WITKOWSKA and Marek WITKOWSKI, University of Economics in Poznan, ul. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-907 Poznan (Poland)

Impact of the number of household's members on changes in the consumption of non-food products in the old age and disability pensioners' households between 1975-1995 (p. 40-49)

The paper evaluates the impact of the demographic factor, represented by the number of household's members on the changes in the consumption of non-food consumables (NFC) in households managed by the old age and disability pensioners in the years 1975-95. The resource material for the study was results of the survey of households' budgets. The results obtained from the research allow to conclude that changes in the economic conditions of managing households by the old age and disability pensioners have led to profound changes in the consumption of NFC in these households. The direction of the changes was similar in households with different numbers of their members. On the other hand, their intensity was strongly varied. (POLAND, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, AGED, PHYSICAL HANDICAP, HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD, FAMILY CONSUMPTION)

98.90.20 - English - S. Maria B. PECYNA, Laboratory of Psychophysiology, M. Grzegorzewska Higher School of Special Pedagogy in Warsaw, ul. Szczesliwicka 40, Warsaw (Poland)

Situation of the school system and care for handicapped children and youth to 18 years of age in the years 1990-1995 (p. 50-65)

The article evaluates the demographic and epidemic situation of the school system, and the care of handicapped children and youth in Poland in the years 1990-95. During the quinquennial period in question the number of primary and secondary schools has grown, as well as the number of pupils with various degrees of intellectual and mobility limiting disability (total and by voivodeships). The author highlights the difficulties faced in estimating the number of children and youths who fall into these categories and in measuring requirements in terms of appropriate educational establishments.. (POLAND, SCHOOL POPULATION, PHYSICAL HANDICAP, MENTALLY DISABLED)

98.90.21 - English - Alina WISNIEWSKA, Department of Social Welfare, Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, Nowogrodzka 1/3/5, 00-513 Warsaw (Poland), and Ewa FRATCZAK, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics - SGH, Al. Niepodleglosci 164, 02-554 Warsaw (Poland)

Monitoring of the social welfare system in Poland - Basic information (p. 66-88)

The article comprises two parts. The first part of the article describes the Polish social security system, its legal basis and how it is organised. It has undergone several reforms since 1990 and there has been great progress in the number of individuals and families covered. In the second part, the authors provide details on the minimum level of information required for the system to operate and describe the contents of the central database currently being developed. (POLAND, SOCIAL SECURITY, DATA COLLECTION)

98.90.22 - English - Hanna AUGUSTYNIAK, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznan, Al. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-967 Poznan (Poland)

Regional demographic data and the efficiency of a company information system (p. 89-98)

The system transformation in Poland caused that demography starts entering into interdisciplinary relations with the business world. Polish enterprises face the need to apply modern management methods, the most significant tool of which are information systems. Structured and hierarchical information systems provide support to standard and one-off decisions made on current basis, and allow to build strategies. Both current decisions and strategies require detailed demographic information about regions. Regional demographic information makes the point of departure for a definite majority of markets. The scope and accuracy of the available regional demographic information in Poland do not meet the demand for information in the economy. Because of the significance of the regional information it is necessary to introduce institutional changes in their creation and distribution. (POLAND, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS, PRIVATE ENTERPRISES)

98.90.23 - English - Elzbieta GOLATA, University of Economics, in Poznan, ul. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-967 Poznan (Poland)

Territorial variations of the labour market and unemployment - Poland 1995 (p. 99-115)

The author presents a complex analysis of territorial variations in the labour market and unemployment in Poland. She draws up a typology of the various voivodies that takes into account not only the unemployment rate, but also the rate of employment and the share of the labour force employed in the agricultural sector. In order to analyze trends in these categories over time, she believes entries into and exits from the labour force must also be taken into consideration, as well as indicators of the structure of the unemployed population. Finally, she highlights the importance of territorial variations in employment and unemployment within each voivodie, the difficulty in defining specifically the territory of a local labour market and in estimating the spatial impact of measures in the fight against unemployment. (POLAND, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, LABOUR MARKET, UNEMPLOYMENT)

98.90.24 - English - Grazyna DEHNEL, University of Economics in Poznan, ul. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-967 Poznan (Poland)

Estimation of estimator's variance in the small area statistics (p. 116-129)

The Small Area Statistics is a completely new branch of the sampling procedure. It was developed in the 80s and 90s in the USA and Canada. It is very important for estimating the basic parameters in the analyses of the labour market and unemployment, health care, social insurance and demographic processes at the micro scale. One of the more important problems in the Small Area Statistics is the identification of the estimation accuracy. Most often, however, variances of the majority of estimators applied in this area are not known. This paper attempts to estimate the variance of selected estimators using a computer simulation building on specific data from the census of population in 1988. The results of the simulation are very promising. It turns out that the efficiency of indirect estimators proposed under the Small Area Statistics is very high compared with the accuracy of direct estimators. This provides the possibility of using even small size samples to estimate parameters for small areas. (METHODOLOGY, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION)

98.90.25 - English - Lucyna NOWAK, Central Statistical Office, Division of Demographic Statistics, Warsaw (Poland)

Demographic situation in Poland on the background of changes in the European countries - in relation to forecast assumptions (p. 133-142)

The author makes some comments on the demographic situation in Poland within the context of the country's socio-economic transformation and trends in the other European countries. Since the early 1990s, the situation in Poland has been characterized by increased unemployment, the marginalization of a segment of the population, a deterioration in the standard of living and transformations in the value system. The experts who prepared the country's population forecasts have foreseen that the decline in the number of births will come to a halt, but they also believe that fertility will not reach the generation replacement level before 2020. Mortality, currently high by European standards, will slowly improve; this explains why moderate hypotheses have been chosen (male and female life expectancies of 72 and 78.5 years respectively in the year 2020). Given that Poland, like most other European countries, does not really have a population policy, it is social, health and education policies which will, indirectly, have an impact on population processes. (POLAND, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)

98.90.26 - English - Lech BOLESLAWSKI, Central Statistical Office, Division of Demographic Statistics, Warsaw (Poland)

Assumptions of the forecast of Poland's population by voivodeships for the years 1995-2020 (p. 143-157)

In July 1995 the Central Statistical Office presented for discussion the assumptions and results of the preliminary version of the demographic forecast for the years 1995-2020. This forecast was developed using the component method. Calculations of the predicted numbers of population were made separately for individual voivodeships by urban and rural areas, using the rates of births, deaths and migrations. The preliminary demographic forecast was based on the assumption of a slow growth of fertility to the level of 190 children per 100 women by 2010, and a continuation of the favourable trend of increasing average life expectancy. Another assumption that was taken concerned the gradual growth of internal migrations, especially from rural areas to towns and as regards foreign migrations a constant net level of 1994. The paper briefly discusses the course of the basic demographic phenomena and processes in Poland, and the factors that determine the changes of tendencies, as well as the method of calculations used. (POLAND, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)

98.90.27 - English - Grazyna MARCINIAK, Central Statistical Office, Division of Demographic Statistics, Warsaw (Poland)

Verification of the assumptions underlying the forecast of Poland's population to the year 2020 (p. 158-165)

Forecasts of the Polish population up to the year 2020 have been undertaken in a two-stage exercise. Firstly, hypotheses were drawn up relative to fertility and mortality trends, then the issue of migration hypotheses was dealt with. It is the second stage which is covered here. It was necessary to relate the migration phenomenon to the foreseeable trend in economic development and the labour market. The author describes the three migratory scenarios which have been envisaged and explains why, at the end of the day, the one which implied the least mobility from the rural areas towards the cities was chosen. (POLAND, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, INTERNAL MIGRATION)

Back to Home page