JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS

Germany (Heidelberg) 89

1998 - Volume 11, NUMBER 1

98.89.12 - English - Charles BLACKORBY, University of British Columbia (Canada), Walter BOSSERT, University of Nottingham (U.K.), and David DONALDSON, University of British Columbia (Canada)

E-mail : lezwb@len1.econ.nottingham.ac.uk.

Uncertainty and critical-level population principles (p. 1-20)

This paper analyzes variable-population social-evaluation principles in a framework where outcomes are uncertain. We provide characterizations of expected-utility versions of critical-level generalized utilitarian rules. These principles evaluate lotteries over possible states of the world on the basis of the sum of the expected values of differences between transformed utility levels and a transformed critical level, conditional on the agents´ being alive in the states under consideration. Equivalently, the critical-level utilitarian value functions applied to weighted individual expected utilities can be employed. Weights are determined by the anonymity axiom. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, METHODOLOGY)

98.89.13 - English - Alessandro CIGNO, University of Florence, Florence (Italy)

E-mail : cignio@ccsp6.scpol.unifi.it.

Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous (p. 21-28)

There is evidence that fertility is positively correlated with infant mortality, and that a child's chance of surviving to maturity increases with the level of nutrition, medical care, etc. received in the early stages of life. By modelling parental decisions as a probelm of choice under uncertainty, the paper shows that that fertility and infant mortality will move in opposite deirections if, as implicitly assumed by existing economic theories, parents believe that there is nothing that they can do to improve the survival chances of their own children. By contrast, if parents realize that those chances improve with the amount they spend for their health, nutrition, etc. of each child that they put into the world, than fertility and infant mortality may move in the same direction. Under such an assumption, the model has the strong policy implication that directly death-reducing public expenditures are most effective, but stimulate population growth, at low levels of development. By contrast, at high levels of development, such expenditures tend to crowd-out parental expenditures, and are a factor in fertility decline. (FERTILITY, INFANT MORTALITY, CORRELATION, FAMILY BUDGET, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES)

98.89.14 - English - Philippe MERRIGAN, Center for Research on Employment and Business Fluctuations, Montréal (Canada), and Yvan ST.-PIERRE, Center for the Analysis of Cost Effective Care, Montreal General Hospital, Montréal (Canada)

E-mail : merrigan-philip@er.uqam.ca ; cyys@musiac.mcgill.ca.

An econometric and neoclassical analysis of the timing and spacing of births in Canada from 1950 to 1990 (p. 29-51)

This paper estimates a reduced form neoclassical model of Canadian fertility dynamics using an econometric technique that integrates several features not usually found in the demographic and economic literature. We find considerable support for the neoclassical model. We also find that correlated unobservables and parity stopping effects play an important role in Canadian fertiliy dynamics as well as other socio-demographic features of Canadian women. However, we fail to totally characterize the important drops in the fertility rate that took place for this era. (CANADA, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, MODELS)

98.89.15 - English - Diane J. MACUNOVICH, Maxwell Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University (U.S.A.)

E-mail : dmacunov@maxwell.syr.edu.

Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature (p. 53-111)

Focusing just on the fertility aspects of the Easterlin hypothesis, this paper offer a critical assessment- rather than just a selective citation- of the extensive fertility literature generated by Easterlin, and a complete inventory of data and methodologies in seventy-six published analyses. With an equal number of micro- and macro-level analyses using North American data (twenty-two), the "track record" of the hypothesis is the same in both venues, with fifteen providing significant support in each case. The literature suggests unequivocal support for the relativity of the income concept in fertility, but is less clear regarding the source(s) of differences in material aspirations, and suggests that the observed relationship between fertility and cohort size has varied across countries and time periods due to the effects of additional factors not included in most models. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, POPULATION THEORY, FERTILITY, HOUSEHOLD INCOME)

98.89.16 - English - Roger AXELSSON and Olle WESTERLUND, Umea University, Umea (Sweden)

E-mail : roger.axelsson@natek.umu.se ; ole.westerlund@natek.umu.se.

A panel study of migration, self-selection and household real income (p. 113-126)

The impact of migration on income on Swedish multi-adult households is examined using panel data pertaining to a sample of stable household constellations during period 1980-1990. In contrast to previous studies, data on household disposable income is employed in estimating the income function. The empirical results indicate no significant effect on real disposable income from migration. In addition, the hypothesis of no-selection, or zero correlation between errors in the decision function and the income function, cannot be rejected. (SWEDEN, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, MIGRATION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME)

98.89.17 - English - Pierre SIKLOS and William L. MARR, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo (Canada)

E-mail : psiklos@mach1.wlu.ca.

The unemployment insurance compensation experience of immigrants in Canada, 1980-1988 (p. 127-147)

This paper utilizes a new data set, compiled by Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Revenue Canada and Statistics Canada, to examine the unemployment experience of Canadian immigrant cohorts over the time period 1980 to 1988. Using the records of unemployment insurance benefits of persons who immigrated to Canada in those years and who filed income tax returns, the unemployment experiences of those people are compared by landing year, gender, level of education, language ability, and country of last permanent residence.The determinants of the proportion of each immigrant cohort that received unemployment insurance benefits are estimated by relating the proportions to landing year, duration of time in Canada, and labour market conditions. Briefly, we find no obvious influences on UI receipt behaviour following the immigration reforms of 1982. However, the recession of 1981-82 had a major impact on incomes which did not recover until 5 or 6 years later. Nevertheless, more generous UI benefits did raise slightly the likelihood of UI receipts. (CANADA, UNEMPLOYMENT, IMMIGRANTS)

98.89.18 - English - Bertrand CRETTEZ, C.E.R.D.O., Université de Paris IX-Dauphine (France), Philippe MICHEL, Université d'Aix-Marseille II (France), and Jean-Pierre VIDAL, C.R.E.P.P., Université de Liège (Belgium)

Time preference and capital mobility in an OLG model with land (p. 149-158)

This paper examines the pattern of capital mobility in a two country overlapping generations world in which production uses three inputs capital, labor and land. The steady-state welfare consequences of opening countries to financial capital or labor mobility are then compared. In particular, it is shown that capital mobility does not equalize standards of living across countires. To achieve this goal, one has to rely on labor mobility. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, MODELS, LABOUR MOBILITY, CAPITAL MOVEMENTS)

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