EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION

France (Paris) 65

1997 - VOLUME 13, NUMBER 4

98.65.4 - English - Peter CONGDON, Department of Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Medicine, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG (U.K.)

Multilevel and clustering analysis of health outcomes in small areas (p. 305-338)

This paper considers models of the variable incidence of health outcomes in geographical areas and of variable regression effects of socioeconomic variables on such outcomes. It adopts a Bayesian approach to variation in relative risk and regression effects, and assesses different prior specifications of risk (e.g. a latent class structure versus a spatially correlated structure). Implications are considered for smoothing and mapping rare health outcomes. The analysis is for electoral wards in London, with the health-deprivation link forming the focus for regression effects. Implications for inferences about risk factors and for health-need ratings (before and after smoothing) are also considered. (METHODOLOGY, INDICATORS, HEALTH, RISK)

98.65.5 - English - Linda HANTRAIS, European Research Centre, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire LE11 3TU (U.K.)

E-mail : L.Hantrais@lboro.ac.uk

Exploring relationships between social policy and changing family forms within the European Union (p. 339-379)

This article examines critically the linkages posited between social policy and changing family forms in European Union member states since the 1960s. While lower fertility rates, changing family patterns, population ageing and the rapid growth in women's economic activity can be shown to provoke policy responses, evidence for a causal impact of policy on demographic behaviour and for the diffusion of policies between countries is inconclusive. The article argues that policy environments are shaped by a complex array of factors, which may appear, in certain configurations, to be conducive to family building or to the development of particular family forms. (WESTERN EUROPE, SOCIAL POLICY, FAMILY, EVOLUTION)

98.65.6 - French - Philippe WANNER, Peng FEI and Stéphane COTTER, Office fédéral de la statistique, Schwarztorstrasse 53, CH-3003 Bern (Switzerland)

Mortality by age and causes of death in Switzerland: An analysis of differences between cantons during the period 1978/83 to 1988/93 (Mortalité par âge et cause de décès en Suisse : une analyse des disparités cantonales durant la période 1978/83 à 1988/93) (p. 381-399)

During the 1980s, expectation of life at birth increased in all the Swiss cantons, but at very different tempi. The characteristics of the level and trends of mortality in the cantons are described here by the decomposition methods developed by Pollard and Arriaga. The pace of the development of mortality in the cantons is compared, and the particular characteristics observed are accounted for by life table analysis according to age and cause of death. The results show in particular the dominant role played at economically active ages and beyond in recent mortality trends, and the importance of AIDS and of violent deaths in accounting for differences between cantons. The analysis is concluded by a discussion of the main results obtained. (SWITZERLAND, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY, AGE-SPECIFIC RATE, CAUSES OF DEATH)

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