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Italy (Rome) 48

GENUS

JULY-DECEMBER 1997 - VOLUME 53, NUMBER 3-4

98.48.11 - English - Samuel H. PRESTON et Michel GUILLOT, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : spreston@pop.upenn.edu.

Population dynamics in an age of declining fertility (p. 15-31)

The science of analytical demography has established two theorems on the prospects for population growth under low fertility conditions. First of all, the growth rates become more and more sensitive to any variations in the fertility rates when the latter decline; in other words, the long-term growth rates fluctuate along with relative variations in the fertility rate rather than its absolute variations. Secondly, even when it is lower than generation replacement level, fertility results in a certain momentum which projects into the future the characteristics of the current population structure. The longer it takes for fertility to return to replacement level, the greater this momentum effect will be. In the hypothesis of a progressive return to replacement level by fixing the annual number of births and life expectancy at birth at their current levels, the European population would decline by 24% before arriving at a stationary point. (EUROPE, POPULATION GROWTH, FERTILITY DECLINE, POPULATION REPLACEMENT)

98.48.12 - English - Antonio GOLINI, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Università degli Studi di Roma 'La Sapienza', Via Nomentana 41, 00161 Rome (Italy)

E-mail : golini@dsd.sta.uniroma1.it.

Demographic trends and aging in Europe. Prospects, problems and policies (p. 33-74)

For the first time, larger sized populations, or even whole continents, find themselves on the threshold of a demographic decline which was not unforeseeable, but well and truly forecasted, as well as rapid and accentuated aging. For both populations and families, there are two facets to the aging issue: (a) its intensity, which results in significant imbalances between the various age groups and morphological "deformities" which will continue to have an impact for some considerable time; (b) its rapidity, the most important factor, for it requires immediate socio-economic and psychologico-cultural responses, both parallel in nature and complicated. The question can be asked as to whether current and future population trends in Italy and Europe will lead their populations on sustainable paths. (ITALY, EUROPE, POPULATION DYNAMICS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING)

98.48.13 - English - Jenny DE JONG GIERVELD, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.O. Box 11650, 2502 The Hague (Netherlands), Theo VAN TILBURG, Department of Social Research Methodology, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1081c, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands), and Laura LECCHINI, Dipartimento di Statistica e Matematica Applicata all'Economia, Università degli Studi di Pisa, Via Cosimo Ridolfi 10, 56124 Pise (Italy)

E-mail : gierveld@nidi.nl.

Socio-economic resources, household composition, and the social network as determinants of well-being among Dutch and Tuscan older adults (p. 75-100)

In order to test the hypothesis of there being a negative correlation between the non-material resources of the elderly (expressed in terms of social cohesion obtained in the framework of the household and family or non-family social networks) and the degree of loneliness, a survey was undertaken, using the direct interview technique, on random samples of people of both sexes, aged between 55 and 89 years old, in three regions of The Netherlands (N = 4494) and in Tuscany (N = 1570). A stepwise hierarchical regression analysis results effectively in a significant degree of correlation, as was expected. (ITALY, NETHERLANDS, AGED, INDIVIDUAL WELFARE, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION)

98.48.14 - English - Monica DAS GUPTA, Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge MA 02138 (U.S.A.), and D. NARAYANA, Centre for Development Studies, Medical College Post, Trivandrum 695011 (India)

E-mail : monica@hsph.harvard.edu.

Bangladesh's fertility decline from a regional perspective (p. 101-128)

It is widely agreed that there has been a spectacular decline in the fertility of Bangladesh since the introduction of its family planning programme. Using the available data, the authors believe that this decline in fertility is indeed significant, but not to the extent that has been made out. The fertility rates in Bangladesh are similar to those in neighbouring India where there is no particularly dynamic fertility control policy. The family planning programme has certainly helped in the fertility decline, but numerous significant changes which have affected both Bangladeshi society and the economy have resulted in a decline in the desire for children. This desire to reduce fertility levels is a result of the increasing pressure on resources and has been accentuated by trends in values and aspirations related to the progressive integration of the country's population into the modern economy. (BANGLADESH, FERTILITY DECLINE, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, SOCIAL CHANGE)

98.48.15 - English - Mohammed Faroque AHMED, South Camden Community School, Charrington Street, London NW1 (U.K.)

Estimation of birth rates and expectation of life at birth at national and district levels of Bangladesh. A critical comparison (p. 129-156)

The author has attempted to estimate the birth rates and life expectancy at birth in Bangladesh and its various districts, using the survival rates retro-projection technique and regression technique. These estimates are based on the proportions of children aged under 15, people aged over 60 and people aged over 65 as obtained from censuses, surveys and age structure forecasts. The ratios P(60+)/P(<15) and P(65+)/P(<15) provide the same estimates of birth rates, but with different life expectancies at birth. Furthermore, the West model of the Princeton life table series would appear to be applicable to the case of Bangladesh, but the estimates provided by the United Nations tables (South-Asian model) differ from the other estimates. (BANGLADESH, ESTIMATES, BIRTH RATE, EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH, METHODOLOGY)

98.48.16 - English - Bamikale J. FEYISETAN, Sola ASA and Joshua Akin EBIGBOLA, Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Obafemi, Awolowo University, Ile-Ife (Nigeria)

E-mail : bfeyiset@oau.net

Timing of births and infant mortality in Nigeria (p. 157-181)

Using data from the 1990 Population and Health Survey of Nigeria on births during the previous five years, the authors attempt to measure the extent to which bearing children at very early (before 18) or very late ages (after 35) is associated with an increased risk of infant mortality. They show that: very young or very old mothers have particularly high proportions of births that fall into the high risk categories; the differences in infant mortality according to the mother's age at birth decrease significantly when specific contextual variables are controlled for; the mother's age at the birth does not really have a direct effect on the infant mortality risk, but only has an impact through the intermediary of variables such as the inter-birth interval, the baby's size at birth, access to and use of pre- and post-natal health services; the impact of mother's age is greatest during the neo-natal period. (NIGERIA, INFANT MORTALITY, MATERNAL AGE, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS)

98.48.17 - English - Pau MIRET-GAMUNDI, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ (U.K.)

E-mail : pm@socsci.soton.ac.uk.

Nuptiality patterns in Spain in the eighties (p. 183-198)

In the present study of Spanish nuptiality, the author highlights his association with various socio-economic, political and cultural determinants, in order to suggest some explanatory hypotheses on the current trends in this field. The study deals mainly with people who were aged between 20 and 40 years old during the 1980s. There would appear to be a very clear parallel between trends in nuptiality and in the economy; the increase in unemployment and the economic crisis were very clearly accompanied by a dramatic drop in marriage rates. But that does not suffice to explain the age structure of nuptiality and other possible determinants must be studied, such as trends in the housing market. (SPAIN, NUPTIALITY RATE, TRENDS, ECONOMIC RECESSION)

98.48.18 - English - Hongxin ZHAO, Office of Population Research, Princeton University (U.S.A.), and K. V. RAO, Department of Sociology, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH 43403 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : kvrao@bgnet.bgsu.edu.

Trends and differentials in female contraceptive sterilization in the United States: What has changed? What has not? (p. 199-214)

Based on data from American national surveys on family growth (NSFG) from 1976 and 1988, and using the discrete period logistical regression technique, the authors have identified the determinants associated with the timing of female sterilization in a sample of non-single women who have stated they wish to have no (further) children. They then examined trends in the impact of these respective determinants during the twelve years covered by the study. According to their results, parity, marital status, the degree of poverty and religion are, at both the periods under study, significant predictors of contraceptive sterilization. The effect of age at first marriage, whether the last birth was planned, the area of residence and race, although significant in 1976, had considerably declined by 1988. Curiously enough, the education level does not appear to have any significant impact on the probability of opting for sterilization. (UNITED STATES, FEMALE STERILIZATION)

98.48.19 - English - William L. MARR and Douglas J. McREADY, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, 75 University Avenue W., Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3C5 (Canada)

E-mail : bmarr@mach1.wlu.ca.

Housing quality and affordability among female householders in Canada (p. 215-241)

The present study is based on data from the Canadian survey of 1990 on household expenditure, with the aim of analyzing the variations in quality and in the cost of housing in the case of households with a female head, whether the latter are single mothers, spinsters or elderly women with no partner. Using bivariate and multivariate analyses, the authors show that, in comparison with a group of married couples, these households live in lower quality and more expensive housing. The article describes the implications of this phenomenon for the housing market. (CANADA, WOMEN, HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD, HOUSING CONDITIONS)

98.48.20 - French - Abdel-Ilah YAAKOUBD, Institut National de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée (INSEA), Madinat Al Irfane, B.P. 6217, Rabat-Instituts (Morocco)

The socio-demographic situation in Morocco on the threshold of the year 2000 (La situation socio-démographique au Maroc à la veille de l'an 2000) (p. 243-259)

Trends in the Moroccan population during recent decades can be characterized by the slowing down of any growth under the influence of the continual decline in fertility combined with an increase in the age at first marriage, in spite of the potentially high growth rate resulting from the country's very young age structure. To these characteristics can be added the accelerated urbanization, the continuing rural exodus and an increase in inter-urban migration. On the threshold of the year 2000, the majority of the population remains illiterate, the younger generations are faced with the problem of unemployment, there are still very few women in the labour market, although they are now adopting modern behavioural models more and more often, as well as contraceptive practices. Living conditions in the cities continue to be superior to those in the country, where there is renewed growth in the levels of neonatal mortality. (MOROCCO, POPULATION SITUATION)

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