ZEITSCHRIFT FUR BEVOLKERUNGSWISSENSCHAFT

Germany (Wiesbaden) 43

1997 - VOLUME 22, NUMBER 4

98.43.14 - German - Evelyn GRÜNHEID and Ulrich MAMMEY

Report on the population situation in Germany - 1997 (Bericht 1997 über die demographische Lage in Deutschland) (p. 377-480)

Seven years after the country's reunification, there are still significant variations in the population situations in East and West Germany. The main demographic processes in the new Länder are slowly stabilizing under the current social conditions, but without reaching the levels of the previous Federal territory. The report presents a complete picture of the current situation and recent trends in all component sectors of population dynamics through a systematic comparison of East and West. (GERMANY, POPULATION SITUATION)

98.43.15 - German - Karl SCHWARZ, Klopstockstrasse 14, 65187 Wiesbaden (Germany)

100 years of fertility trends (100 Jahre Geburtenentwicklung) (p. 481-491)

This article summarizes the results of a large number of works written about fertility trends in Germany over the last century. The average number of children per woman fell rapidly, by more than 50%, up until the First World War, then remained stable at a level slightly under 2 until 1970 roughly, before beginning to decline again till it reached less than 1.5. The author explains the significant annual fluctuations in fertility which have regularly resulted in the erroneous interpretation of trends in reproductive behaviour. If the current factors underlying the desire to have children are used as a basis, it can be concluded that fertility is undoubtedly going to remain for some time at a level about one-third lower than the generation replacement level. Over and above any increase in infertility, this phenomenon can be particularly attributed to the fact that, for many different reasons, very few people are now willing to have a family of any more than two children. People will now rarely accept to make the sacrifices that result from such a choice and it is a subject which is not even up for discussion. (GERMANY, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

98.43.16 - German - Reiner Hans DINKEL

Determination of mortality in the highest age groups: A study supplementing the abridged life tables of the Federal Republic of Germany by the method of extinct generations (Sterblichkeitsmessung in den obersten Altersstufen: Die Ergänzung abgekürzter bundesdeutscher Sterbetafeln durch die Methode der Extinct Generations) (p. 493-509)

The direct measurement of mortality quotients (and, in particular, their denominator) is difficult over the age of 85 or 90 years, even in countries where death registration is complete. In Federal Germany, the summary life tables stop at the age of 89. And yet, it would be useful to know recent trends in the risk of dying at elderly ages. The only tool which can overcome this difficulty is the concept of extinct generations. It requires exact and complete registration of all deaths by age and by generation. The author applies it here from the generation of 1870 onwards in order to re-calculate the mortality quotients above 85 years of age and obtains results that are practically identical to those in the complete tables of the Federal Statistical Office. He then uses it to complete the summary tables up to the age of 100. By calculating confidence intervals for the parameters of the survival functions, he estimates the statistical validity of measurements of mortality decline amongst the very elderly. (GERMANY, AGED, LIFE TABLES, DEATH PROBABILITY, MEASUREMENT, METHODOLOGY)

98.43.17 - German - Reiner SCHULZ

Socio-demographic aspects of international migration from the Mediterranean basin towards the European Union (Soziodemographische Aspekte der internationalen Wanderungen aus dem mediterranen Raum in die EU) (p. 511-536)

The Mediterranean can be considered as the southern-most border of Europe, the northern frontier of Africa and, to a certain extent, the western border of Asia. This space has been marked by a long common history composed of commercial and cultural exchanges. The Mediterranean not only separates those continents and countries that surround it, but it also acts as a link between them. At the present time, the differences between North, South and East are much more visible than any similarities, particularly where their economic development is concerned, but also from the point of view of population trends. It contains the countries with the lowest fertility (Italy and Spain) as well as the highest (Gaza Strip). While all the countries bordering on the south and east have seen their populations rise steeply while economic growth has been slow, those to the north have had minimal - or even, negative - population growth and a much more favourable economic situation. In the past, these imbalances resulted in migratory movement towards Europe. In 1995, around 55% of the population from the Mediterranean basin lived on the south and east borders with 45% on the north. By the year 2020, these proportions will, respectively, be 2/3 and 1/3. While the demographic and economic gaps will still exist, there will no doubt be an increase in the number of migrations towards Europe. This trend may be attenuated if economic trends in the southern and eastern countries are favourable. But the 1995 Barcelona Agreements - foreseeing the opening up of markets, except for the agricultural market - cannot be counted upon to create, in the short- or medium-term, sufficient new jobs in the countries in question. (MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES, EUROPE, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT)

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