JOURNAL OF THE AUSTRALIAN POPULATION ASSOCIATION

Australia (Canberra) 41

MAY 1995 - VOLUME 12, NUMBER 1

98.41.17 - English - John C. CALDWELL, Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

The strengths and limitations of demography, and the works of W. D. Borrie (p. 1-14)

This lecture examines the nature of demography and how the work of W.D. Borrie relates to it. The principal topics are: the meaning of 'demography', changes in the discipline, the uniqueness of demography, population theories and ideologies, and the writings of W.D. Borrie. (AUSTRALIA, DEMOGRAPHY, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, THEORY)

98.41.18 - English - Adrian C. HAYES, Demography Program, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

Cairo and the changing definition of population and development issues (p. 15-23)

The goal of the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), held in Cairo in September 1994, was to agree on a Programme of Action in the field of population and development which would supersede the Plan of Action agreed to at Bucharest in 1974 and subsequently amended ten years later in Mexico City. The main purpose of the present paper is to characterize some of the principal intellectual and ideological developments of the last 20 years which have had an impact on the definition of this goal. I conclude with some brief comments on the Programme of Action adopted by consensus at the Conference. (CONFERENCES, WORLD POPULATION PLAN OF ACTION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT)

98.41.19 - English - Sharon JACKSON, Department of Economics and Management, University College, University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra ACT 2600 (Australia)

Wages and fertility in Australia (p. 25-34)

This paper applies a simple economic model to explain short run movements in Australian fertility, abstracting from social and cultural conditions. It shows that Australian fertility can be modelled with some success using only wages and employment data, once we allow for the different effects of changes in men's and women's wages for the period 1966-90. The elasticity of the total fertility rate over this period is found to be negative with respect to women's wages and positive with respect to men's wages. As well as having the expected sign, the estimated elasticities are similar in magnitude to those for the United States over the period 1948-75. (AUSTRALIA, WAGES, FERTILITY, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC MODELS)

98.41.20 - English - Janet STRACHAN, Debra HARTLEY, Judith OWEN, Diane ROWLING and Junilyn PIKATCHA, Tropical Health Program, The University of Queensland Medical School, Herston Rd, Herston, Brisbane QLD 4006 (Australia)

Family planning in Choiseul province, Solomon Islands (p. 35-50)

The results presented are from a rural prevalence survey on family planning in Choiseul Province, Solomon Islands. Married women aged 15-49 years with at least one living child and married men whose wife met the same criteria, provided data on knowledge, attitudes and practices of contraceptive use. 51% of the female sample were using some form of contraception, 26% reversible and 25% non-reversible methods. 65% of men claimed that they or their spouse were using a method of family planning. Tubal ligation was the most common currently used method (25% in the female survey). Desired family size was four for both males and females. Knowledge and approval of family planning was high, with 83% of females and 81% of males knowing of at least one method.

Problems in accessing information and services for family planning include cultural and logistical constraints. Religious affiliation was the major variable affecting knowledge, use and approval of contraceptive methods. Nearly a quarter of the sample lived further than two hours travel time from the nearest health clinic supplying contraceptive methods. These clinics often have only an intermittent availability of supplies. A strong interest in family planning was demonstrated by both respondents and service providers. (SOLOMON ISLANDS, PROVINCES, FAMILY PLANNING, KAP SURVEYS, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE)

98.41.21 - English - Gordon A. CARMICHAEL, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

Consensual partnering in the more developed countries (p. 51-86)

An especially spectacular demographic trend in the more developed countries since the mid-1960s has been the increasing frequency with which couples have cohabited without being formally married. This paper summarizes evidence that exists for the emergence of this phenomenon in different countries, and reviews the substantial literature it has generated. The latter part of the paper is organized under the following headings: "The international nature of the phenomenon"; "Reasons for the rise in consensual partnering"; "Who cohabits?"; "The nature of consensual unions"; "Union conversion to marriage and dissolution"; "The rise of consensual partnering and the retreat from marriage"; "The impact of premarital cohabitation on marital stability"; "Childbearing in consensual unions"; and "Consensual partnering following marital breakdown". The view is expressed that research to date often has avoided confronting the diversity of meanings consensual unions have for those who live in them. (DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, CONSENSUAL UNION, TRENDS)

NOVEMBER 1995 - VOLUME 12, NUMBER 2

98.41.22 - English - Geoffrey McNICOLL, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

Institutional impediments to population policy in Australia (p. 97-112)

Despite being near the top of the OECD league in rate of population growth, Australia does not have any explicit population policy. The potential constituent parts of one, particularly on immigration, family and environment, are firmly enmeshed in separate political domains and responsive to separate clusters of interests. Vague, demographically ill-informed, and mutually inconsistent views of a desired population size or trajectory for Australia co-exist, with no arena for systematic engagement and considered debate among them. Australia is not alone in this respect: instructive parallels can be drawn from Canada and the United States. Indeed, population policy may well be one of the issues that modern liberal democracies find peculiarly difficult to deal with. However, there are also specific historical circumstances that led to this outcome, and that perpetuate it. (AUSTRALIA, POPULATION POLICY)

98.41.23 - English - Jing SHU and Lesleyanne HAWTHORNE, Bureau of Immigration, Multicultural and Population Research, P.O. Box 659, Carlton South VIC 3053 (Australia)

Asian female students in Australia: Temporary movements and student migration (p. 113-130)

The most significant population movement affecting Australia in recent years has been a dramatic growth in the number of short term arrivals. Within these arrivals overseas students have become prominent, given the rapid expansion of Australia's "export education" industry throughout the past decade. By 1994, 87,000 overseas students were studying in Australia - the vast majority of these Asian in origin. While a substantial literature has evolved concerning overseas students' temporary migration and settlement, there has been only limited demographic analysis undertaken to date, including minimal attempt to explore the participation and specific student experience of women. This paper seeks to address this omission through presentation of a detailed analysis of the characteristics of Asian female students within the overall student movement, together with a preliminary exploration of issues related to their personal and academic transition. (AUSTRALIA, ASIA, IMMIGRATION, STUDENTS, WOMEN, TEMPORARY MIGRATION)

98.41.24 - English - Rosangela MERLO, Graduate Studies in Demography, National Centre for Development Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

First birth timing in Australia (p. 131-146)

This paper examines the concept of delayed childbearing in Australia, in comparison with other Western countries. In addition to presenting statistics to examine changes in the age at which women enter parenthood, survey data from the Australian Family Project are used to investigate the factors influencing the timing of the first birth. Using a framework proposed by Bloom (1984), the paper presents a proportional hazards regression model of first birth timing. Some attempt is made to examine changes over time in the factors affecting the age at first birth. (AUSTRALIA, FIRST BIRTH, MATERNAL AGE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

98.41.25 - English - Norman Y. LUTHER, Program on Population, East-West Center, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96848 (U.S.A.), K.H.W. GAMINIRATNE, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Faculty of Arts, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia), and Alan GRAY, Demography Program, Division of Sociology and Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

Consistent correction of data for aboriginal populations (p. 147-164)

A consistent correction procedure is used to determine improved, consistent estimates by sex of census age distributions, intercensal births, intercensal deaths and net migration by age for the Aboriginal populations of the Northern Territory, South Australia and Western Australia during the period 1986-91. Undercount estimates and life tables show the Aboriginal populations to have lower coverage in statistical collections and much higher death risks than the total Australian population. Inter-regional net migration estimates show that component of change can no longer be ignored. (AUSTRALIA, INDIGENOUS POPULATION, POPULATION CENSUS, QUALITY OF DATA)

98.41.26 - English - Ronnie HARDING, Institute of Environmental Studies, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052 (Australia)

The debate on population and the environment: Australia in the global context (p. 165-195)

This paper reviews the debate on population and the environment. The Australian debate is emphasized, but set within a global context, in recognition of the important interdependencies between countries of the North and South.

The population-environment debate is long standing and highly controversial. It has been waged primarily as a war of "facts" concerning capacity to support people at global, national and/or regional levels. This has been inconclusive for it has failed to give due recognition to the inherent uncertainties in our knowledge, the paradigms which influence our judgements of key parameters, and the political ideology which has permeated the debate from the time of Malthus. Recent attempts to put the debate on a more analytical footing are considered. A framework which recognizes the inherent uncertainty in our knowledge of population-environment linkages is critical and decisions should be guided by the precautionary principle.

Significantly the debate has been marginalized in mainstream discussion of each of population and the environment, both internationally and within Australia. It is suggested that this is a major barrier to progress towards sustainability. A population policy for Australia requiring development of institutions and decision-making processes which give a centrally important place to population-environment linkages in the day-to-day affairs of government, and which engage the community in debate about "desirable futures" at national, regional and local levels, is endorsed. Importantly, the policy should require consideration of these issues within the context of Australia's responsibilities both globally and to future generations. (AUSTRALIA, POPULATION, ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION POLICY)

MAY 1996 - VOLUME 13, NUMBER 1

98.41.27 - English - Colin MATHERS, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, GPO Box 570, Canberra ACT 2601 (Australia)

Trends in health expectancies in Australia, 1981-1993 (p. 1-16)

Health expectancy indices combine the mortality and morbidity experience of a population into a single composite indicator. This paper summarizes and evaluates methods for the calculation of health expectancies and presents trends in the expectation of life with disability and handicap in Australia from 1981 to 1993. Unlike other countries for which recent health expectancy time series are available, Australian results indicate that the expectation of years with disability has increased for both males and females. Possible explanations for this are examined. (AUSTRALIA, LIFE EXPECTANCY, HEALTH, DISABILITY)

98.41.28 - English - David MARTIN and John TAYLOR, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

Ethnographic perspectives on the enumeration of aboriginal people in remote Australia (p. 17-32)

This paper compares population counts and age distributions from the last two Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) enumerations of the Aboriginal population of Aurukun, Cape York Peninsula, with the results of detailed ethnographic surveys of the same population at similar points in time. This reveals substantially lower numbers for the ABS counts, particularly of young adults and children. Reasons for this discrepancy are sought in the ethnographic realities of remote indigenous communities and an alternative methodology for Aboriginal enumeration in remote regions is suggested. (AUSTRALIA, INDIGENOUS POPULATION, POPULATION CENSUS, UNDERENUMERATION, ETHNOGRAPHY)

98.41.29 - English - Farhat YUSUF and Stefania SIEDLECKY, Demographic Research Group, School of Economic and Financial Studies, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109 (Australia)

Prevalence of and attitudes to abortion among migrant women in Sydney (p. 33-46)

This study, based on a socio-demographic survey, conducted in 1988, of 980 ever-married women of Lebanese, Turkish or Vietnamese origin, shows that Turkish women had the most liberal attitudes and reported the highest incidence of abortion. More than half of the Turkish women and only 10-15% of Lebanese and Vietnamese women thought that a woman should have the right to make the abortion decision herself. In spite of religious and moral objections there were many women who were prepared to consider having an abortion in a variety of common situations such as contraceptive failure, rape, extra-marital pregnancy and medical conditions. (AUSTRALIA, CITIES, WOMEN, IMMIGRANTS, INDUCED ABORTION, ETHNIC ORIGIN, ATTITUDE)

98.41.30 - English - I.H. BURNLEY, School of Geography, The University of NSW 2050 (Australia)

Associations between overseas, intra-urban and internal migration dynamics in Sydney, 1976-1991 (p. 47-66)

Between 1976 and 1991 metropolitan Sydney experienced unprecedented internal migration losses to other states and coastal regions of New South Wales. Levels of overseas immigration were also high and housing costs increased markedly, especially between 1986 and 1991. This paper investigates spatial statistical associations between overseas in-migration rates and internal migration loss within Sydney and between housing costs in Sydney and internal migration outflows. The hypothesis was that housing cost changes and overseas migration contributed additively to migration losses from the metropolis. A complementary analysis of the relationship between migration and housing cost changes is also undertaken. There was a strong positive association between overseas in-migration and intra-urban out-migration and a strong negative spatial association between overseas in-migration and internal out-migration. In consequence, housing cost associations with internal migration loss were found, although not all were in the expected direction. There were stronger associations between housing factors and intra-urban migration. The integration of metropolitan Sydney and Australia into the "Pacific rim" economy is examined with reference to wider explanations of house cost changes and migration flows. (AUSTRALIA, CITIES, INTERNAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, HOUSING)

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