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Japan (Tokyo) 32
JINKO MONDAI KENKYU
1997 - VOLUME 53, NUMBER 1
98.32.1 - Japanese - Makoto ATOH
Very low fertility and hypothetical changes in the Japanese value system (p. 3-20)
Japanese fertility fell below the generation replacement level in the mid-1970s and continued to decline before finally reaching a total fertility rate of 1.42 in 1995. It has been established that this decline in fertility basically results from an increase in the proportion of single people and a delay in the age at marriage and age of childbearing. The author explores the possibility of explaining this phenomenon by developments in the system of values within Japanese society. The most significant change in values in Japan, over the last twenty years, is in regard to the status of women. Sexual relationships before marriage and divorce are now more readily tolerated; the "wife at home" is no longer seen to be the traditional model; women are less and less often likely to consider looking after their elderly parents as their "duty"; and, above all, they have acquired positive feelings about themselves (they no longer wish to come back as a man in a future life). Mothers' preferences for sons has declined significantly. The drop in Japanese fertility can be attributed to this "sex role revolution". (JAPAN, FERTILITY DECLINE, VALUE SYSTEMS, WOMEN'S STATUS)
98.32.2 - Japanese - Yoko IMAIZUMI
Study of mortality due to ten neurological conditions in Japan, 1950-1994 (p. 21-44)
Japanese civil status statistics have made it possible for the author to follow trends in mortality for ten or so different neurological diseases since 1950. Variations in these trends are quite marked with some of the illnesses gaining ground, while others are trailing. Age structures of the mortality rates are changing over time. The author takes account of improved diagnosis and the effects of substituting one disease for another. She also underlines the sex-specific differentials and variations between different marital statuses. (JAPAN, MORTALITY TRENDS, CAUSES OF DEATH, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)
98.32.3 - Japanese - Tamotsu OBA
Long-term perspectives for age-specific mortality using a multivariate auto-regressive model (p. 45-63)
This article explains how the author undertook a forecast of sex- and age-specific mortality rates in Japan between 1995 and 2030, using a multivariate auto-regressive model. The effects of age, generation and cohort each have a specific role to play in the forecast. According to the author's calculations, the average life expectancy for males should reach 81.9 years by the year 2030, while women's average life expectancy should peak at 88.8 years in 2016, before dropping again very slightly. The decline in mortality will mainly be felt in the oldest section of the population. (JAPAN, LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS, MORTALITY TRENDS, LIFE EXPECTANCY)
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