DEMOGRAPHY

United States of America (Washington, DC) 09

DEMOGRAPHY

NOVEMBER 1997 - VOLUME 34, NUMBER 4

98.09.11 - English - Karen OPPENHEIM MASON, Program on Population, East-West Center, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848-1601 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : MasonK@Hawaii.edu.

Explaining fertility transitions (p. 443-454)

In this essay, I suggest that the crisis in our understanding of fertility transitions is more apparent than real. Although most existing theories of fertility transition have been partially or wholly discredited, this reflects a tendency to assume that all fertility transitions share one or two causes, to ignore mortality decline as a precondition for fertility decline, to assume that pretransitional fertility is wholly governed by social constraints rather than by individual decision-making, and to test ideas on a decadal time scale. I end the essay by suggesting a perceptual, interactive approach to explaining fertility transitions that is closely allied to existing theories but focuses on conditions that lead couples to switch from postnatal to prenatal controls on family size. (DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY DECLINE, THEORY)

98.09.12 - English - Steven RUGGLES, Department of History, 267 19th Avenue South, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : ruggles@hist.umn.edu.

The rise of divorce and separation in the United States, 1880-1990 (p. 455-466)

I use the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to assess the potential effects of local labor-market conditions on long-term trends and race differences in marital instability. The rise of female labor-force participation and the increase in nonfarm employment are closely associated with the growth of divorce and separation. Moreover higher female labor-force participation among black women and lower economic opportunities for black men may account for race differences in marital instability before 1940, and for most of such differences in subsequent years. However, unmeasured intervening cultural factors are probably responsible for at least part of these effects. (UNITED STATES, RACES, DIVORCE, SEPARATION, LABOUR MARKET, HISTORY)

98.09.13 - English - Alice GOLDSTEIN, Michael WHITE and Sidney GOLDSTEIN, Population Studies and Training Center, Box 1916, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : Alice_Goldstein@brown.edu.

Migration, fertility, and state policy in Hubei province, China (p. 481-491)

Despite China's one-child family planning policy, the nation experienced a slight rise in the birth rate in the mid-1980s. Many observers attributed this rise to the heightened fertility of those rural-to-urban migrants who moved without a change in registration (temporary migrants), presumably to avoid the surveillance of family planning programs at origin and destination. Using a sequential logit analysis with life-history data from a 1988 survey of Hubei Province, we test this possibility by comparing nonmigrants, permanent migrants, and temporary migrants. While changing family planning policies have a strong impact on timing of first birth and on the likelihood of higher-order births, migrants generally do not have more children than nonmigrants. In fact, migration tends to lower the propensity to have a child. More specifically, the fertility of temporary migrants does not differ significantly from that of other women. (CHINA, PROVINCES, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, INTERNAL MIGRATION, ANTINATALIST POLICY)

98.09.14 - English - Daniel A. POWERS, Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin, 336 Burdine Hall, Austin, TX 78712 (U.S.A.), and James Cherng-tay HSUEH, Department of Sociology, National Taiwan University (Taiwan)

E-mail : dpowers@mail.la.utexas.edu.

Sibling models of socioeconomic effects on the timing of first premarital birth (p. 493-511)

Data on 1,090 pairs of sisters from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth are used to estimate the effects of observed individual-level factors, common family-level variables, and shared unobserved family-level traits on the timing of premarital births. Results show a moderate correlated risk of premarital childbearing among siblings after controlling for the effects of measured covariates. The effect of older sisters' out-of-wedlock childbearing on the timing of younger sisters' premarital birth is overestimated when shared unmeasured family-level traits are ignored. Public policy measures designed to reduce premarital births have a smaller multiplier effect via reduced younger sisters' premarital births because unmeasured family-level factors are less amenable to policy measures. However, because the older-sibling effect is large when other sources of variability in premarital birth timing are controlled, interventions may be effective in reducing premarital births among young women in high-risk families. (UNITED STATES, ADOLESCENT FERTILITY, SISTERS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FAMILY ENVIRONMENT)

98.09.15 - English - John S. AKIN, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Campus Box 3305, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (U.S.A.), and Jeffrey J. ROUS, Department of Economics, University of North Texas (U.S.A.)

E-mail : john_akin@unc.edu.

Effect of provider characteristics on choice of contraceptive provider: A two-equation full-information maximum-likelihood estimation (p. 513-523)

We use surveys of households and health-care facilities conducted in the same area at the same time to determine which characteristics of providers attract users of contraceptives. By using the full-information maximum-likelihood technique to jointly estimate choice of contraceptive method and choice of provider we avoid self-selection bias. Results support the need for modeling quality and for jointly estimating the choice of contraceptive method and the choice of provider to avoid biased estimates of coefficients. The results suggest that for the Cebu, Philippines region, small local clinics that focus on family planning tend to be most favored by clients. (PHILIPPINES, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, CHOICE, MODELS, METHODOLOGY)

98.09.16 - English - Scott J. SOUTH and Kyle D. CROWDER, Department of Sociology, University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : s.south@albany.edu ; kc0675@albany.edu.

Residential mobility between cities and suburbs: Race, suburbanization, and back-to-the-city moves (p. 525-538)

Information from the 1979 to 1985 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is merged with data on respondents' tract and metropolitan area of residence to examine patterns and determinants of residential mobility between central cities and suburbs. Consistent with the life-cycle model of residential mobility, mobility in both directions declines with age, but on balance the presence of young children deters moving to the suburbs. Among blacks, education increases the probability of moving from cities to suburbs, while high income retains blacks and whites in suburbs. Consistent with the place stratification model, blacks are substantially less likely than whites to move from cities to suburbs, and substantially more likely to move from suburbs to cities, even after standardizing for racial differences in sociodemographic characteristics. High levels of violent crime and unemployment in cities relative to suburbs also tend to spur city-to-suburb mobility or inhibit suburb-to-city moves. (UNITED STATES, METROPOLIS, SUBURBANIZATION, RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY, RACES)

98.09.17 - English - Suzanne MODEL, Social and Demographic Research Institute, Department of Sociology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003-4830 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : Model@Sadri.Umass.Edu.

An occupational Tale of Two Cities: Minorities in London and New York (p. 539-550)

In this paper, queuing theory is tested through an examination of the occupational attainment of six groups of non-whites in London and New York. Workers in the dominant economy are distinguished from those in the niche economy and emphasis is placed on the former. Black male immigrants in New York and black female immigrants in London hold more favorable occupational status. These results reflect differences in (1) the presence of indigenous minorities - African Americans and Puerto Ricans - in New York but not London, and (2) the relatively low position of indigenous minority males compared to the relatively middling position of indigenous minority females in New York's labor queue. (UNITED STATES, UNITED KINGDOM, METROPOLIS, ETHNIC MINORITIES, LABOUR MARKET, IMMIGRANTS)

98.09.18 - English - C. Y. Cyrus CHU, Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, 21 Hsu Chow Road, Taipei (Taiwan)

E-mail : cychu@cc.ntu.edu.tw.

Age-distribution dynamics and aging indexes (p. 551-563)

I analyze the dynamics of the age distribution as some vital rates change. When the fertility or mortality rate declines, the age distribution often manifests a dynamic stochastic-dominance relationship. I also propose some alternative indexes for measuring population aging. These indexes are closely connected with the age-distribution dynamics and contain more refined information about the distribution of age among the old. (POPULATION DYNAMICS, AGE DISTRIBUTION, NATURAL MOVEMENT, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING)

Back to Home page