POLISH POPULATION REVIEW

Poland (Warsaw) 90

1996 - NUMBER 8

97.90.1 - English - Malgorzata ROSZKIEWICZ, Warsaw School of Economics, Al. Niepodleglosci 164, 02-554 Warsaw (Poland)

Assessment of the impact of changes related to the system transformation on the evolution of the process of mortality in Poland (p. 7-20)

Among the many factors shaping the process of mortality a significant role is played by the environment of the man. Its impact is not only direct, that is, through a limitation of the supply of resources necessary for living, modelling the climate, or creating a variety of dangers to health and life, but also indirect, by designing the social and economic reality in which individuals come to live. The article presents an attempt to make a quantitative evaluation of the impact of the environment on the rate of mortality, focusing on the group of stress-bearing factors that, according to some hypotheses, make up the set of potential, indirect determinants in the process of mortality. According to these opinions, the environment can be a source of different forms of stress. One stressor can be the social and economic status of individuals, being the function of the economic development of the region, another the instability of the social situation in the region. Both types of stress sources seem to be particularly adequate in the evaluation of the impact of this type of factors on the process of mortality in Poland in the period of system transformation. (POLAND, TRANSITIONAL SOCIETY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, ENVIRONMENT, SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS)

97.90.2 - English - Jerzy KONCZALIK, Department of Environmental Health Hazards, The Nofer Institute of Occupational Medicine, ul. Sw. Teresy 8, 90-950 Lodz (Poland)

Assessment of pollution, degradation and devastation of the natural environment of West and North Poland as factors affecting the health of population on this territory (p. 21-38)

The levels of pollution, degradation and devastation of the natural environment were evaluated on the basis of routinely collected information, as well as the exposure of inhabitants of the urban and rural regions in the voivodeships of West and North Poland. Eight measures of environmental hazards were selected, that potentially can be the reason for appearance of the negative effects on health. The selected measures of hazard were normalised and then aggregated using the modified Strahl method, separately for urban and rural regions of the 49 voivodeships. Sets of values of the synthetic measures were split up, separately for these types of regions, into three equinumerous groups, with index values assigned to each of them. On the basis of the results of other authors' research, index values for the synthetic health measures calculated from eight negative health measures selected by means of applied methods of environmental epidemiology were assigned in the same manner. The subject examined was the convergence between index values of the environmental hazards measures and measures of the negative effects on health. (POLAND, PUBLIC HEALTH, ENVIRONMENT, POLLUTION)

97.90.3 - English - Czeslaw ANDRYSZEK, Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Medical University, ul. Zachodnia 81/83, 90-402 Lodz (Poland)

Assessment of health status of population in North and West Poland on the basis of measures related to pollution and degradation of environment . Trends in mortality (p. 39-58)

The objective of this study is to make a cross-sectional assessment of the health status of the population inhabiting West and North Poland, using a set of negative measures of health related to the intensity of environmental factors, and to evaluate mortality trends in the same area that express changes in the rate of morbidity leading to death. The selection of measures significantly reflecting the impact of environmental hazards was made on the basis of estimation of the relative risk significance being the ration of the health measure for areas of the highest environmental hazard (air, water and food pollution) to the analogous measure in areas of the most favourable environmental situation. The measures assumed in the analysis suggest that the population inhabiting 15 voivodeships of West and North Poland is characterised by a poorer health status than in the other area, both urban and rural. Two time intervals were distinguished in the dynamics of mortality: the years 1975-1985 - as the period of a relatively intensive growth of mortality, and the years 1985-1992 when the level of mortality stabilised. We can conlude that the situation in the area of West and North of Poland is on average worse. (POLAND, PUBLIC HEALTH, MORTALITY TRENDS, ENVIRONMENT, POLLUTION)

97.90.4 - English - Marlena KUCIARSKA-CIESIELSKA, Central Statistical Office, Al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-608 Warsaw (Poland)

Examination of the status of health of population in Poland (p. 59-70)

The article presents sources of information about the health status of the Polish population that have been used so far; the number and causes of deaths, the morbidity due to more important diseases and average life expectancy of human life. At the same time this situation is compared with those in some European countries. In Poland a number of investigations have been conducted into particular aspects of health (e.g. disability, diseases of the circulatory system), or into certain groups of population (elderly population, population involved in farming), but as late as 1996 the Central Statistical Office conducted in Poland nation-wide representative studies of the health status of population. The studies allowed for the information needed in the country as well as recommendations issued by the WHO. The subject of special interest was the health status and living standard of the disabled people and their needs to satisfy. The article sets out the subject of the research whose results are being worked upon. (POLAND, PUBLIC HEALTH, HEALTH SURVEYS, PHYSICAL HANDICAP, RESEARCH)

97.90.5 - English - Biruta SKRETOWICZ, Jan GUZ and Jerzy BYLINA, W. Chodzko Institute of Rural Medicine, ul. Szkolna 11, 2-124 Lublin (Poland)

Evaluation of the somatic health of rural population inhabiting Western and Northern voivodeships of Poland compared with the health condition of persons populating the rest of Poland (p. 71-92)

The study presents the results of a comparative analysis of the somatic health condition of the population inhabiting three separate subregions of Poland, that is, the Western Voivodeships (8 units), Northern Voivodeships (7 units) and the other area of the country (34 units). The material to be analysed analysis were results of the first national representative investigation in the health condition of population aged 20-64 years, dwelling in Polish rural areas at the turn of the '80s (a sample of 8,648 persons).

The subject analysed was the evolution of some anthropometric features (weight, height and their ratio known as the Quetelet ratio), the rate of morbidity due to some selected, most common diseases (affecting six systems: circulatory, osteoarticular, metabolic, digestive, respiratory) and the indicator showing the general level of health condition of the examined persons. The results of this analysis indicate a clearly less favourable health condition of persons inhabiting the western voivodeships - mainly elder persons (50-64 years of age), and in some cases even the middle-aged persons (35-49 years) - compared with their contemporaries living on in the western voivodeships, or inhabitants of the other parts of the country (the last group being treated as one subregion). (POLAND, PROVINCES, PUBLIC HEALTH, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

97.90.6 - English - Malgorzata GORALCZYK-MODZELEWSKA, Department of Economic and Statistical Research, Central Statistical Office and Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Warsaw (Poland)

Mortality among the population of the city and voivodeship of Lodz contrasted with death rates in other voivodeships and large and medium-sized cities in Poland in 1993 (p. 93-117)

The paper presents the problem of mortality in the Lodz area and the city of Lodz in 1993. The basis for this description is comparisons across voivodeships, and these between large and medium-sized cities in Poland. The comparisons were made allowing for the basic demographic features such as sex and age of the dead. Levels of mortality were identified for voivodeships and cities using fractional death rates for five year age groups, with the deaths among infants treated as a separate group. (POLAND, PROVINCES, MORTALITY RATE, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

1996 - NUMBER 9

97.90.7 - English - Ewa FRATCZAK, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics, Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw (Poland)

Family and fertility careers of Polish females. A semi-parametric and life table approach (p. 7-32)

The author analyzes based on data from the Polish Retrospective Survey of 1988 'Life Course - (Family, Occupational and Migratory Biography)" is divided into two parts:

- Semi-parametric analysis of the process of family formation and family dissolution, both for males and females.

- Fertility careers of Polish females based on the life table of the staging process. An answer was sought to the following questions: What are the factors significantly determining the process studied and what differences appear between cohorts? (POLAND, WOMEN, EVENT HISTORY SURVEYS, FERTILITY, FAMILY LIFE CYCLE)

97.90.8 - English - Iwona ROESKE-SLOMKA, University of Economics, ul. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-967 Poznan (Poland)

Differentiation of voivodeships in terms of the number of children in the household (p. 33-44)

The basis for the empirical findings presented in this article are data from the sample survey of families' parity conducted together with the census of population in the year 1988. The paper attempts to answer the question in which voivodeships structures of households in terms of their parity are similar and where these differ significantly. To separate groups of similar voivodeships a method based upon the entropy function was proposed and used. It was found, amongst others, that the most differentiated voivodeships, in terms of the number of children below 24 years of age supported by households, were voivodeships of north-eastern and south-eastern Poland. In the case of male heads of households the number of voivodeships making up areas of the highest differentiation regarding the number of children below 24 years is definitely bigger than for the female heads of households. The area of the greatest similarity of households in terms of the number of children is the voivodeship of Lodz. (POLAND, PROVINCES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, FAMILY SIZE)

97.90.9 - English - Maria CHROMINSKA, University of Economics, Family Research Center, Al. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-967 Poznan (Poland)

The dwelling conditions and procreative behaviours (A causal study on the example of individual farmers) (p. 45-74)

The objective of the research was to identify relationships between the size of the dwelling place as defined by the number of its rooms and area, on one hand, and the parity attained in families of individual farmers who entered into marriages in the years 1926-84, on the other. The source material was derived from a sampling questionnaire survey conducted among 1,621 families of individual farmers keeping agricultural accountancy as on 1 January 1985.

The research confirmed the operational hypotheses about the impact of the dwelling conditions considered in three points of time on the actual parity in families of individual farmers. Shapes of the relationship were diverse, but in a majority of marriage cohorts the linear relationship occurred. In single five-year cohorts a change of the shape took place. It became either parabolic or polynomial function of third order. The size of the dwelling expressed by its average size in the period from the day of the marriage to the birth of the last child and at the moment of observation is more significant for explaining the parity of families than the size of the dwelling in the first year following the marriage. (POLAND, FARMERS, HOUSING CONDITIONS, FAMILY SIZE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

97.90.10 - English - Agnieszka ZGIERSKA, Central Statistical Office, Al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Varsovie (Poland)

Forecast of labour force in Poland to the year 2020. Methodology and results (p. 75-95)

In 1995 the Labour Statistics Division of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) started methodological work on the preparation of a forecast of the labour force in Poland to the year 2020. Such a forecast is necessary because of the changes taking place in the Polish labour market in the period of transition to a market economy.

Three variants of the labour force forecast for the years 1995-2020 were prepared, arbitrarily named minimum, intermediate and maximum. The preliminary demographic forecast (the most probable variant) prepared by the Division of Demographic Research CSO was taken as the basis for the projection of the labour force, as well as anticipated fractional activity rates prepared in the Labour Statistics Division. Projections were made for males and females residing in towns, and males and females living in rural areas. Both the demographic forecast and the suggested activity rates covered population of persons aged 18 years and more, and were broken down into five year age groups. Variant intermediate assumes a slow reconstruction of the economic activity of population from the level of the period 1978-88 (census 1978 and census 1988). The main part of this 'reconstruction' will take place in the years 1995-2010. The greatest anticipated changes concern youths (18-24 years), persons of immobility age (males 45-64 years and females 45-59 years) and the first groups of the retirement age. Variant maximum assumes that the anticipated 'reconstruction' labour force participation rate will be faster (compared with variant intermediate). (POLAND, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, MANPOWER, METHODOLOGY)

97.90.11 - English - Barbara NOWAKOWSKA and Jerzy T. KOWALESKI, University of Lodz, ul. Rewolucji 1905 r., No. 41, 90-214 Lodz (Poland)

Labour force. Outlook to the year 2020 according to the current of the Central Statistical Office forecast (p. 96-118)

The paper deals with the changes in the number and structure of population of working age in Poland and by voivodeships to the year 2020 as presented by the most current demographic forecast of the Central Statistical Office. The period 1995-2020 is going to be characterised, in its first stage, by a serious increase in the number of population of working age and then, after the year 2010, the size of this group will considerably contract. Attention was paid to the fact that the quantitative changes will be accompanied by significant changes in the structure of labour force by age, that is, by the growth of population of immobility age. The changes flagged will vary geographically. Among voivodeships there will be units characterised by a declining number of population of working age (in the central part of Poland and in Silesia), as well as regions of a high growth of labour force located in the northern and south-eastern parts of the country, and in Wielkopolska and Pomerania. (POLAND, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, MANPOWER, WORKING-AGE POPULATION, PROVINCES)

97.90.12 - English - Anna KOWALSKA, Central Statistical Office, Department of Labour, Al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Varsovie (Poland)

Projecting labour force supply and demand (Current experiences of Central Statistical Office of Poland) (p. 119-130)

97.90.13 - English - Czeslaw DOMANSKI and Barbara NOWAKOWSKA, University of Lodz, ul. Rewolucji 1905 r., No. 41, 90-214 LODZ (Poland)

Women's labour market in Poland in transition (p. 131-146)

The aim of this paper is to present a descriptive statistical analysis of the trends in economic activation of women in Poland, to characterize women's place among the principal social groups operating on labour market, i.e. employers, employees and the unemployed, as well as to show the separating factors which determine the probability of becoming unemployed. The empirical basis of the analysis conducted are the results of the representative research of the economic activity of people (BAEL) carried out quarterly cycle May 1992. This research covered people aged 15 or more sampled from households. The basic criterion of categorizing people is their relation to work. Three categories are distinguished: the employed, the unemployed and the economically inactive. The first two groups constitute economically active people. In the descriptive part of the paper we will use measures of economic activity; in the probabilistic part we will use a logit model of the probability of being unemployed whose detailed description can be found in the further parts of the paper. (POLAND, WOMEN, LABOUR MARKET, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION, UNEMPLOYMENT)

97.90.14 - English - Abigail GREGORY, Mike INGHAM, European Studies Research Institute, University of Stanford (U.S.A.), and Hilary INGHAM, Manchester School of Management UMIST (U.K.)

Women's employment in transition: The case of Poland (p. 169-190)

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