POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW

United States of America (Wilmington, Delaware) 88

FEBRUARY 1996 - VOLUME 15, NUMBER 1

97.88.1 - English - Adil NAJAM, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (U.S.A.)

A developing countries' perspective on population, environment, and development (p. 1-19)

The subject of this paper is the political behavior of developing states (the South) on issues of population, environment and development. It attempts to understand why the South is so weary of international population policy in the name of the environment. It argues that the South's response is shaped by five inter-related concerns about responsibility, efficiency, efficacy, additionality, and sovereignty. That is, the developing countries, (a) do not want their population growth to be held responsible for global environmental degradation, (b) argue that a more efficient solution to the environmental crisis is consumption control in the North, (c) believe that development remains a necessary condition for efficacious population control, (d) are weary of the population priorities of the North distracting international funds from other developmental goals of the South, and (e) are unprepared to accept any global population norms which challenge their fundamental political, cultural or religious sovereignty. It is maintained that these concerns have historically guided the positions of the South and remain valid and relevant today. Although, over the last two decades of North-South debate on the subject the nuances within these concerns have evolved, the concerns themselves remain valid and were apparent again at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. Finally, it is proposed that although a grand North-South bargain around population-environment development issues remains unlikely, both sides can gain much from trying to understand even where they do not agree with - the other's concerns. The purpose of this study is not as much to defend the South's position, as to present it and the rationale behind it. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, POPULATION POLICY, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY)

97.88.2 - English - Philip K. ROBINS, Department of Economics, University of Miami (U.S.A.), and Paul FRONSTIN, Employee Benefit Research Institute, Washington, D.C. (U.S.A.)

Welfare benefits and birth decisions of never-married women (p. 21-43)

For some time now, the out-of-wedlock birthrate has been increasing rapidly in the United States. This has prompted several states to propose (and in some cases, enact) legislation to deny access to higher AFDC benefits for families in which the mother gives birth while receiving AFDC. The authors investigate whether AFDC benefit levels are systematically related to the family-size decisions of never-married women. Using a bivariate probit model with state and time fixed effects, applied to Current Population Survey data for the years 1980-1988, it is found that the basic benefit level for a family of two (one adult and one child) and the incremental benefit for a second child positively affects the family size decisions of black and Hispanic women, but not of white women. The effects are concentrated among high school dropouts (no effects are found for high school graduates). The authors conclude that rather than to uniformly deny benefits to all AFDC women that bear children, a better targeted policy might be to alter the AFDC benefit structure in such a way as to encourage single mothers to complete high school. However, being a high school dropout might be a proxy for some other underlying characteristic of the woman, and encouraging women to complete high school who otherwise would not might have no effect whatsoever on nonmarital births. (UNITED STATES, ADOLESCENT FERTILITY, UNMARRIED MOTHERS, FAMILY ALLOWANCES, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)

97.88.3 - English - Joan R. KAHN and Leslie A. WHITTINGTON, Center on Population, Gender and Social Inequality, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland (U.S.A.)

The labor supply of Latinas in the USA: Comparing labor force participation, wages, and hours worked with Anglo and Black women (p. 45-73)

This study explores the determinants of labor supply patterns among Latinas in the USA. We use recent microeconomic data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics/Latino National Political Survey (PSID-LNPS) to estimate models of labor force participation, wages, and hours worked for a sample of Cuban, Mexican, and Puerto Rican women. We estimate the same models for Anglo and Black women in order to explore ethnic differences in the impact of characteristics affecting both the reservation and the market wage. We find that differences exist in the return to characteristics, such as education, but that there are also substantial differences in the levels of those characteristics across ethnic groups. The low wage rates and labor market activity of Latinas relative to Anglo and Black women are thus likely to be the combined result of lower investments in human capital and larger family size, the greater negative impact of macroeconomic conditions, and a stronger responsiveness to wages. Among Latinas, we find that there are differences in labor market outcomes between national origin and nativity groups. We also find that age at arrival and years in the USA play a role in labor supply, and that this is particularly true for Puerto Rican women. (UNITED STATES, ETHNIC GROUPS, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION, WAGES)

97.88.4 - English - Jeffrey A. BURR, Department of Sociology, State University of New York at Buffalo (U.S.A.), and John HARTMAN, Department of Sociology, Columbia University (U.S.A.)

Racial opportunity structures and Black fertility (p. 75-94)

This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the impact of opportunity structures on black fertility across local labor markets. US Vital Statistics and Census of Population data are combined and then examined with regression techniques to estimate the effect of both race-specific and relative measures of opportunity structure on black fertility in the United States. The results show that relative female opportunity structure has a negative relationship with black total fertility rates as well as with birth rates for specific points along the reproductive age structure. However, the hypothesized relationship between relative male opportunity structures and black fertility is not supported. We discuss these results as they relate to minority fertility theory and as they relate to public policy concerns.(UNITED STATES, BLACKS, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

APRIL 1996 - VOLUME 15, NUMBER 2

97.88.5 - English - Samuel H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphie (U.S.A.)

The effect of population growth on environmental quality (p. 95-108)

This paper summarizes research on the effect of population growth on environmental quality. Land transformations induced by the spatial expansion of agriculture are probably the major route by which population growth has affected features of the natural environment. These transformations are not automatic and their extent is influenced by social institutions. Intensification of agricultural land use is an alternative response with its own set of environmental implications. These are especially salient in the case of expanded irrigation. In contrast to relations in the agricultural sector, a new version of the conventional I = PAT equation is introduced to suggest that population growth is a minor influence on the extent of industrial pollution. Nevertheless, population policy may play a useful role in strategies to reduce industrial pollution. (POPULATION GROWTH, ENVIRONMENT, FARMING SYSTEMS, POLLUTION)

97.88.6 - English - Philip GUEST, Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research, Nakhorn Pathom (Thailand), and Gavin W. JONES, Australian National University, Division of Demography and Sociology, Canberra ACT (Australia)

Policy options when population growth slows: The case of Thailand (p. 109-130)

Thailand reached replacement-level fertility almost a decade ago, although there has been a lag in measuring and recognising the implications of this benchmark event. Fertility could well sink still lower. The momentum of population growth will ensure substantial further increase before the population levels off, but this is not true in all regions. For example, earlier and faster fertility decline in the North, and net outmigration, have led to a situation where some geographical and age segments of the North's population are decreasing. Population policy in Thailand since 1970 has had two major planks: to reduce fertility through an active family planning program, and to distribute population away from the large primate city of Bangkok. The paper discusses whether these policies may need to be modified as a result of the major demographic and socio economic changes that have been taking place. It also discusses the limits to population policy in terms of the likely efficacy of various measures that could be adopted, based on both an assessment of the Thailand situation and the experience of other low-fertility countries. (THAILAND, FERTILITY DECLINE, POPULATION POLICY, URBANIZATION)

97.88.7 - English - Peter A. MORRISON, RAND, Santa Monica, California (U.S.A.)

Forecasting enrollments during court-ordered desegregation (p. 131-146)

Distinctive issues arise when a demographer must forecast enrollments in a context of court-ordered desegregation. The key issue studied here is whether magnet schools have strengthened a district's overall attractiveness to enrollees from outside or merely siphoned students away from other nonmagnet schools within the district, without any real districtwide enrolment gain. To clarify this issue, I analyze patterns of change in grade progression rates over several years as magnet schools were phased in at a large urban school district. Generally, magnet schools induced little actual gain, merely slowing the overall weakening of districtwide retention. These findings furnished an important 'reality check' on the judgment for crafting appropriate forecasting assumptions and the resulting forecast proved reasonably accurate. (UNITED STATES, SCHOOL ENROLMENT, POPULATION FORECASTS, URBAN PLANNING)

97.88.8 - English - Jacob S. SIEGEL, Georgetown University, Department of Demography, Washington D.C. (U.S.A.)

Geographic compactness vs. race/ethnic compactness and other criteria in the delineation of legislative districts (p. 147-164)

Several criteria have evolved in law and tradition to constrain the delineation of Congressional and State and local legislative districts, such as population equality, geographic compactness, race/ethnic 'compactness', and integrity of political boundaries. Among the various criteria, I focus on compactness, and in particular, the legal and mensural aspects. Following the passage of the Voting Rights Act in 1965, racial 'compactness' has been employed more and more frequently as a primary criterion, and with reduced restraint compared with other criteria, except perhaps for population equality. In Thornburg v. Gingles (1986), the Supreme Court recognized racial/ethnic compactness and polarization in voting practices as prerequisites for newly established 'majority-minority' districts. In Shaw v. Reno (1993), the Court reaffirmed the principle of geographic compactness as against racial compactness by noting that the shape of Cong. Dist. 12 of North Carolina was 'bizarre' and that it was drawn solely on racial grounds. With this decision, race/ethnic compactness and, by extension, the broad interpretation of the Voting Rights Act have been put in conflict with geographic compactness as criteria. More recently, in Miller v. Johnson (1995), use of race as a predominant factor in district delineation, apart from compactness, was rejected. These developments should renew interest in and support for formal statistical guidelines in evaluating geographic compactness in redistricting plans. Many formulas for measuring compactness have been proposed and tested. Here the commonly used perimeter/circle measure and the circumscribed area/circle measure are compared by an examination of some simple geometric figures and 1990-Census-based C.D.'s. Some problems with these measures are noted, and a new measure, the CV/radii measure (the complement of the coefficient of variation of the 'radii' of the district), is proposed and illustratively applied. (UNITED STATES, POPULATION DENSITY, MAPPING, ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, METHODOLOGY)

97.88.9 - English - Karen A. WOODROW-LAFIELD, Center for Social and Demographic Analysis, State University of New York, Albany, New York (U.S.A.)

Emigration from the USA: Multiplicity survey evidence (p. 171-199)

Special national surveys in the 1980s give the only recent data about emigrants from the USA, based on asking residents about their parents, siblings, and children living outside the USA who ever lived here. Each of the three surveys yielded an initial or minimal estimate of at least one million surviving emigrants. Adjusting for probable omission of emigrants without a resident immediate relative, the number of emigrants surviving as of 1990 is likely to exceed two million and, with alternative assumptions, could exceed three million. Due to inherent uncertainties in differing methodologies for measuring emigration for the past three decades, the implied level of emigration of permanent residents for the 1980s may be similar to previous levels. This finding contradicts popular belief of a simple direct association, i.e., that increasing immigration levels would be associated with increasing emigration levels. Emigration levels result from population heterogeneity on such characteristics as origin country, location and strength of familial ties, and reasons for coming to the USA, and associated probabilities of emigration. For many of the post-1965 immigrant cohorts, there is one or more decades during which emigration may yet occur. (UNITED STATES, EMIGRATION, MIGRATION MEASUREMENT, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS)

JUNE 1996 - VOLUME 15, NUMBER 3

97.88.10 - English - Øystein KRAVDAL, Statistics Norway, Oslo (Norway)

How the local supply of day-care centers influences fertility in Norway: A parity-specific approach (p. 201-218)

In order to assess how expansion of day care facilities affects fertility, the Norwegian Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 was linked with individual register-based migration histories and time-series data on day-care coverage rates in all Norwegian municipalities. Many factors affect both the allocation of resources to day-care centers and a woman's probability of giving birth. The local coverage rate is positively associated with the probability of advancing from parity two, after control for geographical region, degree of urbanization and other confounders. This effect of day care supply, which is significant at low coverage levels, contributed to a moderate rise in third-birth rates after the mid-1970s. However, if the aggregate employment rate for women is also regarded as a confounder, the effect of day care may actually be insignificant. Moreover, the effect fades at higher coverage levels. Finally, there are indications that second- and first-birth probabilities decline with increasing provision of day care. These results suggest that further efforts to improve the supply of private and public day care - which in Norway are likely to be motivated by non-demographic concerns - will have little stimulating effect on fertility, at least if the subsidies and quality of care remain unchanged. (NORWAY, DAY CARE CENTRES, FERTILITY, BIRTH ORDER)

97.88.11 - English - Deborah S. DeGRAFF, Department of Economics, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, Maine (U.S.A.), Richard E. BILSBORROW, Carolina Population Center, Chapel Hill, NC (U.S.A.), and Alejandro N. HERRIN, School of Economics, University of the Philippines, Quezon City (Philippines)

Children's education in the Philippines: Does high fertility matter? (p. 219-247)

This paper examines the effects of family size and sibling position on children's current school enrollment status in the Philippines. The theoretical framework focuses on the determinants of children's participation in alternative activities, specifically schooling, market work, and home production. This approach allows for a greater understanding of the mechanisms through which fertility, as reflected by number of siblings and sibling composition, influences children's education than would examining the determinants of schooling alone. The model is estimated using the 1983 wave of the Bicol Multipurpose Survey. The results indicate the existence of negative effects of fertility on school enrollment, which, in part, operate through work status. In addition, these effects differ according to the sibling position of the child. (PHILIPPINES, ENROLMENT RATE, FERTILITY, SIBLINGS)

97.88.12 - English - H. Virginia McCOY, Florida International University, Department of Public Health, N. Miami, FL 33181-3600 (U.S.A.), Ronald CORREA and Emma FRITZ, University of Miami, Miami, FL (U.S.A.)

HIV diffusion patterns and mobility: Gender differences among drug users (p. 249-264)

Researchers have recently expanded the scope of study of transmission patterns of AIDS to incorporate spatial and geographical questions. United States diffusion patterns of this disease appear to indicate that it may emanate from urban area epicenters to areas of low and moderate prevalence. The travel patterns of injecting drug users (IDUs) and the extent to which they engage in high risk drug and sexual activities was examined as an explanation of diffusion of the HIV virus from one community to another. The study population of 49,621 was comprised of subjects recruited from approximately 60 sites nationwide from 1988-1991. While the data are limited in some ways, they partially support a diffusion explanation of HIV transmission for males and females. The analysis demonstrates that low prevalence cities were significantly more likely to have been the destinations of both men and women who engaged in high risk drug and sexual activities. In addition, HIV seropositive drug users who engaged in high risk drug and sexual behaviors in destination cities were more likely than seronegatives to travel to high or low seroprevalence areas than to moderate prevalence areas. The findings suggest a need for effective HIV prevention educational messages about the risks of traveling and participating in high risk activities. (UNITED STATES, AIDS, TRAVELLERS, GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY, DRUGS)

97.88.13 - English - Laurence GRUMMER-STRAWN, Maternal and Child Health Branch, Division of Nutrition, and Paul W. STUPP, Behavioral Epidemiology and Demographic Research Branch, Division of Reproductive Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30341 (U.S.A.)

An alternative sampling strategy for obtaining child health data in a reproductive health survey (p. 265-274)

Retrospective demographic surveys typically collect substantial information about child health. This information is often collected for all children born during a specified period. For women with several young children, the interview can become quite long. To shorten the interview, some surveys have asked child health questions only for the last child born. However, data on the last birth may be biased because last children have a younger age distribution and have longer subsequent birth intervals than does the average child. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to collecting child health data - that child health questions be asked only for a child chosen randomly from among the respondent's children younger than age five. This alternative has the advantage of keeping the interview shorter but does not lead to biased information. (METHODOLOGY, DATA COLLECTION, POPULATION CENSUSMATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH)

97.88.14 - English - Jeffrey S. GRAY, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL (U.S.A.)

The economic impact of divorce law reform (p. 275-296)

The role no-fault divorce plays in lowering the economic well-being of women remains controversial. This paper attempts to shed light on this issue by surveying the literature and presenting new evidence that also considers state laws governing the distribution of marital property at divorce. The data suggest that the economic impact of no-fault divorce is very sensitive to the type of marital property law in each state. Under certain marital property laws the adoption of no-fault divorce may even be welfare improving for married women. (UNITED STATES, DIVORCE, WOMEN'S STATUS, LEGISLATION, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS)

97.88.15 - English - Howard WINEBERG, Center for Population Research and Census, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207-0751 (U.S.A.)

The resolutions of separation: Are marital reconciliations attempted? (p. 297-310)

This study, using 1987-88 National Survey of Families and Households data, has examined the prevalence and characteristics of ever-separated white women who attempt a marital reconciliation. Marital reconciliations are quite common as 44% of the separated women attempt a reconciliation. There is some support for the thesis that those with the fewest resources and greatest reliance on the relationship are the most likely to attempt a reconciliation. In comparing these findings with previous research on the marital dissolution process, there is little consistency in the relationship that the sociodemographic variables have with attempting a reconciliation and with the success of an attempted reconciliation. The implications of these findings are discussed. (COUPLE, SEPARATION, DIVORCE)

AUGUST 1996 - VOLUME 15, NUMBER 4

97.88.16 - English - Christopher HEWITT, Department of Sociology/Anthropology, University of Maryland, Baltimore County (U.S.A.), and J. Roger PEVERLEY, Department of Physics, The George Washington University, Washington, DC (U.S.A.)

The spread of HIV into the general population of the USA: A simulation (p. 311-325)

The spread of HIV from injection drug users and male homosexuals into the general US population is simulated, using survey data on sexual behavior. We estimate that approximately 150,000 persons are currently infected with HIV through heterosexual transmission, the majority of whom are female partners of drug-using or bisexual men. The estimated number of AIDS cases generated by the model is close to the CDC statistics for males, but much higher for females. We conclude that prevention efforts should be targeted towards these high risk groups rather than the general population. (UNITED STATES, AIDS, COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, MODELS, SIMULATION)

97.88.17 - English - Peter S. K. CHI, Department of Consumer Economics and Housing, College of Human Ecology, Cornell University of Ithaca, NY (U.S.A.), and Ping-Lung HSIN, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, The Third Institute, Taipei (Taiwan)

Family structure and fertility behavior in Taiwan (p. 327-339)

The present analysis is based on the 1990 Taiwan Human Resources Survey to study the relationships between family structure, women's complete fertility and birth spacing. Imputed family size, as measured by either the ideal number of children expressed by a married woman or the number of actual surviving children whichever is larger, is used as a proxy of a woman's complete fertility. The results indicate a majority of married couples in Taiwan begin married life living with the husband's parents and later move out to establish a nuclear unit. This limited experience in the extended family exerts an upward pressure on imputed family size even when other relevant variables are statistically controlled. Further, the effect of living with the husband's parents on shorter duration of birth spacing is only limited to the time when the parents provide free child-care for married couples. (TAIWAN, EXTENDED FAMILY, FAMILY SIZE, COMPLETED FERTILITY, BIRTH ORDER)

97.88.18 - English - Ronald R. RINDFUSS, David K. GUILKEY, Barbara ENTWISLE, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (U.S.A.), Aphichat CHAMRATRITHIRONG and Yothin SAWANGDEE, Mahidol University (Thailand)

The family building life course and contraception use: Nang Rong, Thailand (p. 341-368)

This paper incorporates the insights of the life course perspective in an examination of the determinants of contraceptive use. It views dccision-making about contraceptive methods in the context of personal history and the broader social setting. Three stages in the reproductive life course of married women are considered. In the early years, timing decisions dominate. Contraception is used to delay the first birth and control the tempo of fertility. Mid-career, the major concern is whether to have a sterilizing operation. Towards the end of the fecund period, couples must decide when to stop using contraception, given that they have not already opted for sterilization. We examine choice among nonpermanent methods, as well as sterilization, in the context of a theoretical model that explicitly recognizes the permanence of the sterilization decision. Our statistical procedures control for unobserved community influences. The data are from Nang Rong district, Thailand, a relatively poor area near the Cambodian border under going substantial socioeconomic change during the 1980s. Our results clearly show variation in method choice over the reproductive life course, and variation in the effects of specific determinants including age of husband and wife, living arrangements, and village location. They also demonstrate gains in the understanding of any particular stage in the life course that accrue from an integrated examination of all of them. (THAILAND, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS, LIFE CYCLE, DECISION MAKING)

97.88.19 - English - Julia L. HANSEN, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA (U.S.A.)

Residential segregation of blacks by income group: Evidence from Oakland (p. 369-389)

This paper presents evidence on variation in segregation levels experienced by economic subgroups of blacks in Oakland, California and its surrounding county. The central finding is that in this area, one of the most racially integrated in the USA, higher-income blacks exhibit a substantially higher level of integration with whites than do lower-income blacks. In addition, higher income blacks made more progress toward integration in the 1970s. In the 1980s, however, inequality among blacks declined somewhat as lower middle-income blacks experienced the greatest gains in integration. By 1990, very-high income blacks in Oakland had achieved full integration with whites. While important from a descriptive standpoint, results of this study do not constitute evidence that increased black incomes would eliminate residential segregation. The continued significance of race, even for high-income blacks, is underscored by the finding that their exposure to whites is significantly lower than expected, given the disproportionate presence of whites among high-income households. (UNITED STATES, BLACKS, WHITES, RACIAL DISCRIMINATION, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION, INCOME)

97.88.20 - English - Dennis A. AHLBURG, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (U.S.A.)

Remittances and the income distribution in Tonga (p. 391-400)

Receipt of remittances from migrants decreased the inequality of income in Tonga. Policies that attempt to affect migration or remittance flows, such as policies to improve the administration and collection of taxes, should take into account any undesirable effects on the distribution of income. (TONGA, EMIGRANTS, REMITTANCES, INCOME DISTRIBUTION)

DECEMBER 1996 - VOLUME 15, NUMBER 5-6

Special issue:

Applied demography: Demography and decision-making

Guests editors: Louis G. POL and Hallie J. KINTNER

97.88.21 - English - David A. SWANSON, Portland State University, Center for Population Research and Census, Portland, Oregon (U.S.A.), Thomas K. BURCH, Population Studies Center, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario (Canada), and Lucky M. TEDROW, Demographic Research Laboratory, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington (U.S.A.)

What is applied demography? (p. 403-418)

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions. (APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY, DECISION MAKING)

97.88.22 - English - Andrew MASON, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaï (U.S.A.)

Population and housing (p. 419-435)

The analysis described here was carried out in response to a political crisis in Australia. In 1994, a Member of Parliament who opposed the use of foreign aid funds for family planning programs blocked the passage of the national budget. The impasse was resolved through a compromise. The use of foreign assistance for population activities was frozen pending an independent inquiry into the impact of population on economic development. A team of nine researchers prepared background papers on population and economic development, health, education, food supply, housing, poverty, the environment, family planning, and human rights. The overall conclusion of the inquiry was that slower population growth will yield more rapid development in most countries, especially in relatively poor, agricultural nations. The purpose of this contribution to the inquiry was to assess how population growth was affecting the housing sector and, in turn, economic development. Among other questions, does population growth increase the demand for residential land, housing, and urban infrastructure? Demographic methods were critical to answering the questions, especially assessing the impact of population growth on the demand for housing. (AUSTRALIA, APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY, POPULATION GROWTH, HOUSING, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT)

97.88.23 - English - Dumitru SANDU, Département de sociologie, Université de Bucarest, Bucarest (Romania), and Gordon F. DE JONG, Population Research Institute, Department of Sociology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (U.S.A.)

Migration in market and democracy transition: Migration intentions and behavior in Romania (p. 437-457)

This paper analyzes the determinants of migration decision-making in the context of recent market and democratic transition in Romania. Using early 1990s internal migration survey, census and population register data, the results from Lisrel path models show that market and democracy value orientation variables are significant determinants of intentions to move, controlling for individual and regional social structural and resource indicators. Similarly, district-level out-migration behavior is directly determined by the political profile of the local area. Results from the total and disaggregated rural and urban models are interpreted through a reform values and characteristics typology of migrants. At least in the early stages of Romanian transition, the results indicate that migration choice behavior is governed by a search for places with greatest opportunities in terms of market and democracy returns. Implications of the results for political system and public policy decision are discussed. (ROMANIA, INTERNAL MIGRATION, DECISION MAKING, TRANSITIONAL SOCIETY, DEMOCRACY, MARKET ECONOMY)

97.88.24 - English - Stanley K. SMITH, Department of Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (U.S.A.)

Demography of disaster: Population estimates after hurricane Andrew (p. 459-477)

Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for fastfood restaurants. This article describes the estimation problems created by the hurricane and how those problems were resolved through the use of existing data sources and the collection of new types of data. It closes with a discussion of several conceptual, methodological and procedural issues that will have to be faced in virtually any attempt to estimate the demographic consequences of natural disasters. (UNITED STATES, NATURAL DISASTERS, DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS, POPULATION ESTIMATES)

97.88.25 - English - Peter A. MORRISON and Allan F. ABRAHAMSE, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA (U.S.A.)

Applying demographic analysis to store site selection (p. 479-489)

This case study illustrates how applied demographic analysis can help structure business decision-making. We screened every one of several thousand square miles within metropolitan Southern California to identify the 10 best locations for a large supermarket catering to one-stop shoppers. Locations were selected based on potential sales volume (irrespective of nearby competitors), future stability of the resident consumer base, and specific demographic factors likely to enhance sales potential among target shoppers (e.g., dual-earner families). The client placed as much importance on how the results were derived as on our recommendations. As a result, our analytic framework for comparing high-potential locations played a central role in structuring the client's thinking. This framework, together with the empirical analysis, illustrate how applied demographers can operationalize business questions about consumer markets and guide a client toward a more systematic way of reaching decisions. (APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY, LOCATION OF INDUSTRY, TRADE, DECISION MAKING)

97.88.26 - English - Jeff TAYMAN, San Diego Association of Governments, San Diego, CA (U.S.A.)

Forecasting, growth management and public policy decision making (p. 491-508)

This paper's objective is to describe the interplay between forecasting and decision making. It shows how a forecast helped shape public policy and, in turn, how public policy influenced a forecast, within the context of the growth management effort underway in the San Diego region. The forecast identified economic challenges and land use issues facing the region and public policy actions were developed to address them. Normative forecasting best describes the relationship between the forecast and these public policy decisions. This 'active' approach to forecasting involves first deciding what future outcome is desirable and, then, designing policies and actions to achieve these outcomes. (APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY, FORECASTS, GOVERNMENT POLICY, DECISION MAKING)

97.88.27 - English - Hallie J. KINTNER, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan (U.S.A.), and David A. SWANSON, Center for Population Research and Census, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon (U.S.A.)

Ties that bind: A case study of the link between employers, families, and health benefits (p. 509-526)

Most US residents receive health benefits from their employer. Groups of employees and their families are therefore the basis for health care financing. Health care costs rose dramatically during the 1980s and employers looked for ways to control them. One approach is to control the size of the group provided health benefits by an employer. This paper uses a demographic perspective to explore the determinants of change in an employer's group. It examines the linkages among employer policies, employee turnover, and family dynamics. How much control does an employer have over group size? We identify the relative contributions of employment and demographic processes to changing group size. We use a decomposition technique based on matching individual records between consecutive years. We apply this technique to a case study of the health benefits group consisting of General Motors salaried employees and their families. We find that employers face limits to the control that they can exert over the size of the health benefits group associated with their active workforce. Demographic processes unrelated to employee turnover or transfers to layoff or retirement accounted for a large portion of the population change in the case study. (UNITED STATES, SOCIAL SECURITY, HEALTH, MANPOWER, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS)

97.88.28 - English - Jerome N. McKIBBEN, University of South Mississippi, Hattiesburg, Mississippi (U.S.A.)

The impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts (p. 527-536)

This paper describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana. For the district in question, a group of residents pointed to the apparent growth in the number of kindergartners as a reason not to close schools in their area. Having uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an enrolment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had been conditioned to expect future enrolment growth by not only the policy effect but by local media reports on the national 'Baby Boomlet', a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the residents. This experience tends to validate the argument made by others that the participation of professional demographers in an adversarial procedure can be beneficial in helping to formulate long-term plans. (UNITED STATES, APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY, PRESCHOOL POPULATION, POPULATION FORECASTS, EDUCATIONAL PLANNING)

97.88.29 - English - Jeanne E. GOBALET, Lapkoff and Gobalet Demographic Research Inc., Saratoga, Californie (U.S.A.), and Richard K. THOMAS, Medical Services Research Group, Memphis, Tennessee (U.S.A.)

Demographic data and geographic information systems for decision making: The case of public health (p. 537-548)

Recent changes in the United States health care system include a broadened definition of health and renewed focus on public health. Increasingly, demographic analyses are incorporated into public health decision-making. Analysts also are using geographic information more routinely, because Geographic Information System (GIS) software is becoming easier to use. The paper describes three cases in which demographers used GIS to analyze the spatial distribution of public health data. The first case, from Santa Clara County, California, focuses on adolescent sexually transmitted diseases in secondary school districts. The second case, also from Santa Clara County, maps preventable hospitalizations of senior citizens. The third examines the distribution of premature births in Tennessee counties. The researchers applied demographic techniques and perspectives in each case, and each case produced information that is being used by officials who plan health education campaigns and services. (UNITED STATES, APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY, PUBLIC HEALTH, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY)

97.88.30 - English - Wolfgang OPITZ, Budget Division, Washington State Department of Social and Health Services, Olympia, Washington (U.S.A.), and Harold NELSON, Forecasting Division, Washington State Office of Financial Management, Olympia, Washington (U.S.A.)

Short-term, population-based forecasting in the public sector (p. 549-563)

There has recently been a tremendous expansion of the range of problems to which the demographic perspective is applied. Development of a new 'population-based' method to solve the problem of forecasting income assistance caseloads for the state of Washington represents yet another effort in which the demographic perspective helps solve two major public policy problems: (1) providing accurate and useful forecasts of caseloads, and (2) creating a dynamic model with which to analyze alternative policy proposals. When forecasting or examining the caseload history, it is also common to look at these caseload levels as a time-series. A caseload grows and shrinks as time passes because new members enter the caseload from a population of potential clients while other members exit the caseload. Population-based forecasting, as reported here, is really quite a novel approach to forecasting public assistance caseloads. In most situations, simple extrapolations of past trends or econometric time-series models are used. Characteristics associated with entries and exits can be used to develop dynamic models of current and future caseload changes. For budgeting purposes, these models can be readily translated into average annual caseload levels and can be directly used to examine policy alternatives and programmatic options. Entry and exit rates and volumes can be related to historical, current, and anticipated changes in economic, social, and programmatic conditions to develop models of caseload behavior, and ultimately, forecasts of caseload levels that are used for budget development. (UNITED STATES, APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY, PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, PROJECTIONS)

97.88.31 - English - E. Walter TERRIE, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, Floride (U.S.A.)

Several recent Supreme Court decisions and their implications for political redistricting in Voting Rights Act context (p. 565-578)

This paper focuses on four recent United States Supreme Court decisions which have profound implications for political redistricting. These cases are Holder v. Hall, Johnson v. De Grandy, Shaw v. Reno and Miller v. Johnson. Each of these cases place limits on the scope of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act when conducting a political redistricting or fashioning a remedy for a Section 2 violation. These cases have resolved a number of important issues in redistricting while creating yet new issues to be resolved. Although demographers are not in the business of practicing law, they must clearly understand the legal requirements and often subtle nuances imposed by the case law. The paper concludes that the combined force of these cases does not yet spell the end of race conscious redistricting and therefore, effectively repeal the Voting Rights Act but does require that more weight be given to traditional redistricting criteria when designing districts that will withstand legal challenges. (UNITED STATES, APPLIED DEMOGRAPHY, ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS, POLITICS)

Back to Home page