POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS

United Nations (New York) 74

1995 - NUMBER 39

97.74.1 - English - Anthony H. RICHMOND, Centre for Refugee Studies, York University, Toronto (Canada)

The environment and refugees: Theoretical and policy issues (p. 1-17)

The concept of "environmental refugee" is not included in the definition of refugee as established by the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol, which are the most widely used instruments providing the basis for granting asylum to persons in need of protection. Yet, it is increasingly being recognized that environmental factors interact with political, economic, social and biopsychological factors to generate mass movements of people which may require a humanitarian response by the international community. In order to improve our understanding of the role that environmental factors play in triggering migration, it is necessary to recognize the multivariate nature of the phenomenon under consideration, where the difference between internal and international migration is often accidental and there is a continuum between proactive and reactive migration. (REFUGEES, ENVIRONMENT, MIGRATION, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS)

97.74.2 - English - Thomas BUETTNER, Estimates and Projections Section, Population Division, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, United Nations Secretariat, New York (U.S.A.)

Sex differentials in old-age mortality (p. 18-44)

This article examines levels and trends of sex differentials in life expectancy at older ages for 29 developed countries. Significant sex differentials in life expectancy among the elderly have been found -- but no common trend among countries. Sex differentials in life expectancy for the elderly continued to widen for less than half of the countries studied; most of them experienced a declining trend. Due to the existing sex differentials in mortality among the elderly, their sex ratio is expected to change dramatically as they age. According to hypothetical life-table populations, differential mortality would change an almost balanced sex composition at age 60 into a population with femininity ratios ranging from 140 to almost 250 women per 100 men. Eastern European countries show, for most of the measures employed, a picture different from that for the advanced Western societies. They have the lowest life expectancies above age 60, and the contributions of age group 60-85 to sex differentials in mortality at birth are the lowest.

The article concludes that it is necessary to draw more attention to old-age mortality, and to sex differentials in particular, since the size and relative weight of the elderly segment of the population continues to grow. Also, it seems to be necessary to include specific goals for old-age mortality in national health strategies aimed at reducing overall mortality and narrowing inequalities between social groups. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, AGED, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

97.74.3 - English - Dominique TABUTIN, Institut de démographie, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium), and Michel WILLEMS, Centre international de formation and de recherche en population and développement en association avec les Nations Unies (CIDEP), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Excess female child mortality in the developing world during the 1970s and 1980s (p. 45-78)

In general, a decline in mortality is accompanied by changes in the differentials by sex, from a situation in which, depending on age, there is an excess in the mortality rate among males or among females to a situation in which females are at an advantage at every age. The pace of change, however, varies by age and the social context. Thus, in a very large part of the developing world, there is still an excess mortality rate among women at certain ages, particularly among girls aged 1-4 years.

How did this excess female child mortality evolve from the 1970s to the 1980s, during a period when mortality declined significantly? Is there a relationship between the intensity of the phenomenon and levels of mortality or certain social development indicators? These are some of the questions which the article discusses on the basis of reliable and comparable data taken from approximately 60 countries. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, MORTALITY DECLINE, CHILD MORTALITY, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)

97.74.4 - English - Thomas K. LeGRAND, Département de démographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal (Canada), and Cheikh S. M. MBACKE, Rockefeller Foundation, Nairobi (Kenya)

Sex differences in mortality among young children in the Sahel (p. 79-111)

Prior research has shown evidence of slight excess female child mortality in several areas in sub-Saharan Africa. The existence and determinants of sex differences in mortality are studied, using longitudinal data on more than 21,000 children between the ages of one month and two years from the cities of Bamako (the capital of Mali) and Bobo-Dioulasso (the second largest city in Burkina Faso), and from a rural area of Senegal. Results indicate excess female mortality for certain age ranges and excess male mortality for others. There is little evidence of sex differences in vulnerability to specific causes of death, discrimination in nutrition and health care, or systematic effects of household socio-economic status, mother's education, parity or urban/rural residence on child mortality by sex. Only ethnicity appears to be associated with sex mortality differentials, suggesting that traditional, cultural practices such as female circumcision and sex-specific food taboos may underlie the findings. (SAHEL, INFANT MORTALITY, MORTALITE YOUTH, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS)

97.74.5 - English - Kenneth HILL, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, MD (U.S.A.)

Age patterns of child mortality in the developing world (p. 112-132)

Age patterns of child mortality in the developing world are of substantive importance, reflecting underlying etiology, and of methodological importance, affecting indirect estimation methods. A recent compilation of child mortality estimates published by the United Nations provides a basis for examining such patterns and for identifying regional similarities of pattern reflecting common cultural and environmental influences. The main source of information about age patterns of child mortality in the developing world is the birth history, collected in about 60 developing countries, particularly by the two internationally coordinated survey programmes, the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). However, for some countries, confirmatory information is available from civil registration or from prospective surveys. The various sources of information are reviewed by comparing observed probabilities of dying by age 1 and between ages 1 and 5, relative to standard patterns incorporated in the Coale/Demeny life-tables. Similarities of pattern within regions are found to be less strong than expected. However, certain clear patterns are found -- notably, low post-infant child mortality relative to infant mortality in temperate South America and high post-infant child mortality relative to infant mortality in tropical Africa. Elsewhere, patterns vary from country to country, but by and large fall within the limits defined by the models. Child mortality patterns as recorded by birth histories are found to be in reasonably good agreement with other sources generally regarded as more likely to be accurate. Child mortality patterns, controlling for mortality level, are found to vary with the median duration of breast-feeding: short breast-feeding is associated with relatively high infant mortality, whereas long breast-feeding is associated with relatively high post-infant mortality. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, AGE DISTRIBUTION)

97.74.6 - English - Vasantha KANDIAH, Population Division, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, New York (U.S.A.), and Shiro HORIUCHI, Population Laboratory, Rockefeller University (U.S.A.)

Recent trends and prospects in world population growth (p. 133-146)

This article assesses the causes of the stagnation in the declining trend in world population growth rates over the past decade. Three major factors have been identified as contributing to the stagnation: age structure, fertility trends in India and China, and the fact that although the number of developing countries with sustained declines in fertility levels rose sharply in the late 1960s and 1970s, it dropped off dramatically in the 1980s. Prospects for the growth rate in the 1990s favour a decline, owing to changes in the age structure and indications that China and India have resumed their fertility declines. However, there remain some populous developing countries that continue to have high levels of fertility. Fertility trends in those countries will have a certain influence on the world's growth rate. (WORLD POPULATION, GROWTH RATE, FERTILITY DECLINE)

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