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United Kingdom (London) 58

POPULATION STUDIES

NOVEMBER 1996 - VOLUME 50, NUMBER 3

97.58.1 - English - John C. CALDWELL, Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200 (Australia)

Demography and social science (p. 305-333)

This paper attempts to define the field of demography, identify the demographer, assess the extent to which demography is a social science and relate it to the other social sciences. It examines how changes in the outside world affect what demographers do and what they publish. As befits Population Studies's 50th anniversary, the role of journals, and especially of this journal is examined. The early role of the journal and of its longtime two editors in defining the field is discussed. The interface between demography and the other social sciences is examined, as is the extent to which demographers publish in journals other than specialist population ones. (DEMOGRAPHY, SOCIAL SCIENCES, DEMOGRAPHERS, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, PERIODICALS)

97.58.2 - English - Nathan KEYFITZ, 1580 Massachussetts Ave 7C, Cambridge, MA 02138-2928 (U.S.A.)

Population growth, development and the environment (p. 335-359)

When Population Studies was founded in 1946 a main preoccupation of demographers and of the public was the prospective decline of the British population, and the falling off of its quality because on the average a poor family had more children than a better-off one. Over the course of the 50 years interests have shifted to the aging of populations as births decline and mortality improves; immigration, immigrants being welcomed for the decades after the war, and subsequently facing hostile political pressures; environmental degradation and the spread of new diseases. The fall in the birth rate, required both for development and for protection of the environment, is spreading from the original industrialized countries of Europe and America to Asia, somewhat more slowly to Latin America, slowest of all to Africa. (DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, HISTORY, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENT)

97.58.3 - English - Dudley KIRK, Food Research Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6084 (U.S.A.)

Demographic transition theory (p. 361-387)

Demography is a science short on theory, rich in quantification. Nevertheless, demography has produced one of the best documented generalizations in the social sciences: the demographic transition. What is the demographic transition? Stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality.

The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity.

In short, the fertility transition is becoming universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in the transition. (DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, FERTILITY, MORTALITY, POPULATION GROWTH, THEORY)

97.58.4 - English - D. J. van de KAA, Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), The Hague (Netherlands)

Anchored narratives: The story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility (p. 389-432)

This paper reviews half a century of research into the determinants of fertility. It is argued that the quest for the determinants of fertility behaviour and change during that period can best be interpreted as the development of a series of sub-narratives from different disciplinary perspectives and orientations. These are normally based upon the initial narrative of the demographic transition and usually take the form of a verbal theory illustrated by a 'box and arrow' diagram. On occasions formalization has been attempted. Different parts of the initial narrative have been highlighted at different times depending on policy interest, improvements in technical skills, availability of data, changes in social setting, and the degree of satisfaction with the dominant sub-narrative of the day. There is every reason to believe that the research process identified will continue and will lead to a further accumulation of knowledge. In fact, all important variables have probably already been identified. That it will, ultimately, lead to a single, consolidated narrative fully satisfactory for all settings and for all time is, however, highly unlikely. (DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, POPULATION THEORY, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, HISTORY)

97.58.5 - English - John CLELAND, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ (U.K.)

Demographic data collection in less developed countries 1946-1996 (p. 433-450)

This evolution over the last 50 years of data collection systems in less developed countries is assessed. The progress made by civil registration systems has been extremely disappointing. Except in Central and South America, their role in providing vital rate estimates is still very limited. In contrast, the promulgation of regular population censuses has been a success, particularly in Africa. The relative merits and demerits of different types of demographic surveys are described. To some extent multi-round designs have given way to single-round surveys, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). DHS-style enquiries are particularly suitable for evaluation of interventions but are less appropriate if the main aim is to measure vital rates. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DATA COLLECTION, METHODOLOGY)

97.58.6 - English - William BRASS, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ (U.K.)

Demographic data analysis in less developed countries: 1946-1996 (p. 451-467)

This paper reviews the development of indirect techniques for estimating vital rates in the developing world from census and survey data. The methods considered include the following: the exploitation of age distributions using the 'own children' method to estimate age-specific fertility rates by characteristics of the mother; the P/F ratio method for estimating current fertility and its extensions; the calculation of parity progression ratios to detect changes in family-building patterns following the adoption of contraception early in the transition process; methods for estimating childhood and adult mortality, including maternal mortality, from data on the survival of close relatives; the derivation of life tables from such estimates; and the correction of death rates using 'growth balance methods'. The paper concludes with a section on possible future improvements in estimation techniques. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, METHODOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, ESTIMATES)

97.58.7 - English - Ansley COALE and James TRUSSELL, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 31 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091 (U.S.A.)

The development and use of demographic models (p. 469-484)

In this review, we first examine two classical demographic models - conventional life tables and stable populations - and a modern generalization of stable population theory; we then discuss mathematical models of conception and birth. These models involve purely mathematical relations in formal demography as opposed to empirical regularities. Next we consider model age schedules of mortality, nuptiality, marital fertility, fertility, and migration that are explicitly based on such empirical patterns. We close this empirical section with a discussion of model stable populations, which are based on model life tables. We next examine the use of demographic models in forecasting future mortality, nuptiality, and fertility and in population projection. Following a discussion of microsimulation models, which gives us the opportunity to mention model age schedules of post partum amenorrhoea and of sterility, we close with observations about the purposes and uses of demographic models. (MATHEMATICAL MODELS, FERTILITY, MORTALITY, NUPTIALITY)

97.58.8 - English - John HOBCRAFT, Department of Social Policy and Administration, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE (U.K.)

Fertility in England and Wales: A fifty-year perspective (p. 485-524)

This paper provides a detailed account of fertility levels and trends in England and Wales since 1938, with a briefer coverage of a much longer time-span. The paper is concerned both with the measurement of fertility and with understanding the observed fertility behaviour. We lament and correct the failure of demographers to apply measurement tools available since the 1950s to the analysis of fertility in England and Wales, with a particular emphasis on adjustment of period measures and period parity progression ratios and show how some of the grosser errors of analysis and interpretation might have been avoided by earlier use of these approaches. We also relate these estimates to more recent ones. Once a clearer account of trends has been established, the paper goes on to reinterpret and explain the baby boom and baby bust. The conclusion looks at future prospects for fertility. (ENGLAND, WALES, HISTORY, FERTILITY TRENDS, FERTILITY MEASUREMENTS, METHODOLOGY)

97.58.9 - English - Samuel H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298 (U.S.A.)

Population studies of mortality (p 525-536)

Population Studies has become the principal outlet for demographic research on mortality. Many of the advances in the measurement of mortality in data-poor countries were reported in its pages. It has also published most of the influential articles which attempted to make a broad-scale assessment of the sources of mortality change. These include special attention to developments in England and Wales and Sri Lanka. Capitalizing on the widespread availability of demographic surveys, articles in the 1980s featured careful analyses of the demographic correlates of child mortality. Such studies have passed the point of diminishing returns, and declines in child mortality have focused increased attention on conditions among adults. Unfortunately, demography has not developed the means for measuring and analysing adult mortality in underdeveloped countries that are equivalent in their power to methods for studying child mortality. (DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, MORTALITY MEASUREMENTS, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, METHODOLOGY)

97.58.10 - English - Osamu SAITO, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186 (Japan)

Historical demography: Achievements and prospects (p. 537-553)

Historical demography as a separate discipline came into existence when family reconstruction was first developed for the analysis of a pre-transition population. This paper assesses the significant achievements made in this field of population studies since then. Attention is also paid to equally significant findings obtained from aggregative analysis based on back projection, and to a large body of research results for the period of the demographic transition. In the last part of the paper, new research directions are discussed. Data issues as well as methodological ones are raised. Special attention is given to newly emerging Asian historical demography where different source materials require different methods and techniques, which in turn are expected to broaden the scope of the so far disproportionality fertility-oriented field. Finally, discussions are extended to economic, cultural and institutional aspects of the subject, with a plea not to isolate demographic analysis from other branches of historical research. (HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, HISTORY, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, METHODOLOGY)

MARCH 1997 - VOLUME 51, NUMBER 1

97.58.11 - English - Alaka Malwade BASU

The "politicization" of fertility to achieve non-demographic objectives (p. 5-18)

It is argued in this paper that "perceptions" about the determinants of fertility and of fertility decline can be "politicized" by various special interest groups; that is, these perceptions can be used to push for policies and interventions which often have an ambiguous relationship to actual fertility, but are important because they already appear on the political agenda of these groups. Such politicization is facilitated by the near-universal consensus that fertility decline is a legitimate goal in the developing world, by the increasing evidence that there can be no grand theory of fertility decline, and by the willingness of scholars to attach a policy significance to all their findings. Two examples of such politicization in India are presented, one of which has a socially beneficial impact, whilst the other is potentially disruptive, to illustrate that such politicization is not without its dangers. (INDIA, POLITICAL PARTIES, PROPAGANDA, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FERTILITY DECLINE)

97.58.12 - English - Jan M. HOEM

Educational gradients in divorce risks in Sweden in recent decades (p. 19-27)

Many investigators have found that divorce risks decrease as you move from groups with little educational or social capital to groups with more. This negative educational gradient fits with the notion that people with more education are better at selecting spouses and better at making a marriage work. Other investigators have found a positive gradient, often in populations where the situation is dominated by the individual's ability to handle the divorce process and to cope with the economic and other problems that follow in the wake of a divorce. The sign of the educational gradient in divorce risks seems to depend on the balance between countervailing influences.

Information about the gradient over a few educational levels is about as much as you can expect to get from the interview data of a normal-sized general survey. With access to the data from a full-coverage system of the population and educational registers of a sizeable population like that of Sweden, educational effects can be studied in much greater detail. We begin to tap this source in the present paper. When we do, the educational gradient in divorce risks turns out to be too slippery a basis for the general theories that have been developed around it so far, at least in a population where it is reasonably easy to get a divorce and where the hurtful consequences to the divorcees are more limited than elsewhere. There has been no uniform relation between educational level and divorce risk of Swedish women at the various educational levels during the 1970s and 1980s; developments in recent decades in Swedish first-marriage divorce risks have been much more favourable to the more highly educated than to women with less education, and the result is that the educational gradient has become negative as we leave the 1980s. The educational gradient changed sign correspondingly between cohorts born in the mid-1940s and cohorts from the mid-1960s. In a society such as Sweden, it may be more important to explain the trends in divorce risks by educational level than to explain the gradient of educational effects. Most normal-sized data sets are too small to permit the inclusion of secular changes in the effect of education on divorce rates, so analysts risk working with a seriously mis-specified model if real educational impacts change over time. (SWEDEN, DIVORCE RATE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, CORRELATION, METHODOLOGY)

97.58.13 - English - OMONDI-ODHIAMBO

Men's participation in family planning decisions in Kenya (p. 29-40)

From its inception in 1967 to the mid 1980s, the Kenyan national family planning programme suffered from a lack of popular support and confidence within the general population, absence of active local participation at all levels and, above all, the absence of men's involvement in this patriarchal nation. This study measures the effects of men's participation in family planning decisions, and identifies the conditions which would stimulate greater participation by men in family planning decisions. The principal conclusions are that Kenyan men do participate in these decisions, take an interest in planning their families, support family planning and use contraception to achieve their goals. The recent transition to lower fertility is probably due, at least in part, to changes in men's attitudes. In particular, the study shows that lack of communication between husband and wife may be a more important obstacle to the adoption of contraception than men's opposition. Couple communication has the strongest positive influence on current contraceptive use followed by: residence in regions of the country in which conformity to traditional reproductive practices is weaker (Nairobi, Central, and Eastern regions), employment in higher-status occupations, the number of living children, higher levels of education, and the wife's current age. Giving higher priority to the inclusion of men's needs and concerns in the design of family planning programmes should improve their success. (KENYA, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, MEN'S ROLE, ATTITUDE)

97.58.14 - English - Kathleen E. KIERNAN and John HOBCRAFT

Parental divorce during childhood: Age at first intercourse, partnership and parenthood (p. 41-55)

It is well established that young people whose parents divorced or experienced marital breakdown during their childhood are likely to enter into first partnerships and into parenthood earlier than those whose parents remained married. In this paper, using data from the British National Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles Survey, we examine how far the timing of first coitus plays a role in the genesis of this demographic behaviour for children of divorced parents. Other factors, including the timing of menarche, attitudes to sexual activity, degree of parental strictness and religiosity, were also examined. In general, these factors had little explanatory power. The analysis showed that earlier sexual activity for men and women from disrupted families is an important proximate determinant of their earlier entry into partnership and parenthood, compared with those brought up with both natural parents. (UNITED KINGDOM, PARENTS, CHILDREN, DIVORCE, SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR, FERTILITY)

97.58.15 - English - Abbas BHUIYA and Mushtaque CHOWDHURY

The effect of divorce on child survival in a rural area of Bangladesh (p. 57-61)

The data for this study come from Matlab, a rural area of Bangladesh, where a continuous registration of demographic events has been maintained by the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh since 1966. A total of 11,951 first marriages of Muslims that took place in the area between 1975 and 1987 were followed until the end of 1989, to examine the relationship between parental marriage breakdown and survival of first live-born children. The impact of divorce on survival of children during infancy and childhood was examined, using hazard analysis. Other independent variables included age of mother at birth, and mother's education, year of birth, sex of children, and residence at the time of childbirth. It is shown that the net odds of death among children of divorced mothers in infancy and childhood were respectively 3.2 and 1.4 times higher than those of mothers whose marriages continued. The paper also discusses the possible mechanisms which link divorce and child survival. (BANGLADESH, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, DIVORCE, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS)

97.58.16 - English - Warren C. ROBINSON

The economic theory of fertility over three decades (p. 63-74)

After a promising start some three decades ago, the application of micro-economic analysis to fertility studies has proved disappointing. It has not led to an increased understanding of fertility decisions nor to the policy insights which had been expected. This paper considers the reasons for this disappointment. It reviews briefly the development of the now dominant version of the economic approach to fertility analysis, the so-called "Chicago Model". It concludes that several basic conceptual and theoretical weaknesses of this approach have led it up a blind alley. The paper concludes with suggestions for new assumptions and approaches which may make the theory more relevant for policy programmes. (ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, THEORETICAL MODELS, FERTILITY DETERMINANT, POLITICS)

97.58.17 - English - Alice GOLDSTEIN, Guo ZHIGANG and Sidney GOLDSTEIN

The relation of migration to changing household headship patterns in China, 1982-1987 (p. 75-84)

Radical changes in fertility, economic structure, and level of development occurred in China between 1982 and 1987. Nonetheless, during this period family size remained relatively stable because the decline in household size due to lower fertility was offset by an increase in the number of adults. A major explanatory factor has been the government's changing migration policies which led first to family fission and then to fusion. Migration and household composition data from the 1982 census of China and the 1987 National Sample Survey show that during spousal separation women often assumed the headship of their household, and in many instances retained it after the return of spouse. Since this pattern is most pronounced in cities, we suggest that women's headship is related to changing norms that engender greater acceptance of equality between the sexes. It also reflects pragmatic recognition that these women have developed their own important networks for the efficient operation of their household. With the dramatic rise in migration in China resulting from the economic reforms, household size and headship patterns are likely to continue to be affected by spousal separation. (CHINA, INTERNAL MIGRATION, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD, WOMEN'S STATUS)

97.58.18 - English - M. KHLAT, M. DEEB and Y. COURBAGE

Fertility levels and differentials in Beirut during wartime: An indirect estimation based on maternity registers (p. 85-92)

In this paper, total fertility estimates for Greater Beirut in the mid-eighties and early nineties are presented, and changes in socio-religious differentials of fertility across time are explored. The baseline information was recorded from registration details for all maternities in Beirut and its inner suburbs in 1984 and 1991: age of mother, number of children ever-born, hospital class, and religion of newborn. An indirect method was used to estimate total fertility from the joint distribution of mothers by age and parity, and, using hospital class as a proxy for social class, differentials in fertility were investigated by Poisson regression. The estimates of total fertility for Beirut shifted from 2.60 in 1984 to 2.52 in 1991, and were higher for Muslims than for Christians in the two periods. The regression analysis showed that: (1) the difference between the two religious groups persisted after control for social class, and in fact applied to the lower social class; (2) fertility dropped between the two dates in the lower social class, and more so for Muslims than for Christians. In comparison with other countries of the region, the decline in Beirut was found to be relatively modest. If the trends assessed in this study were to continue, the religious-based fertility differentials would taper off progressively in the capital city of Lebanon. (LEBANON, CAPITAL CITY, FERTILITY DECLINE, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, SOCIAL CLASSES, RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION)

97.58.19 - English - François PELLETIER, Jacques LEGARE and Robert BOURBEAU, Département de Démography, University de Montréal, Montréal (Canada)

Mortality in Quebec during the nineteenth century: From the states to the cities (p. 93-103)

The aim of this paper is to explore mortality in Quebec during the nineteenth century from a demographic perspective. During the nineteenth century, there was excess urban mortality in various countries; in order to identify such mortality differentials, we compared mortality indicators for the province of Quebec and then for the urban areas of Montreal and Quebec City. Using data from various studies, we produced life tables and compared life expectancies. We show that at different times during the nineteenth century, spatial variations in mortality levels across the province of Quebec and its urban areas were significant. According to the data we analyzed, mortality is undoubtedly higher in urban areas even though a convergence in trends took place towards the end of the century, resulting in an overall reduction in mortality. Also, exploring life expectancies within a cohort approach at times of fast-changing mortality patterns has proved to be instructive. Life expectancy estimates based on a cross-sectional approach were systematically lower than those resulting from a cohort-specific one. Trends diverged to a greater extent beginning with the 1870 cohort, reflecting the improvements made from that point on to World War II. Since current mortality levels are substantially determined by the cumulative effects of past behaviour specific to each generation, it is quite obvious that mortality analysis will reveal its true meaning only with the help of cohort life tables. (CANADA, PROVINCES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, LIFE TABLES, COHORT ANALYSIS)

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