Back to Home pageItaly (Rome) 48
GENUS
JANUARY-JUNE 1996 -VOLUME 52, NUMBER 1-2
97.48.1 - English - Giuseppe A. MICHELI, Istituto di Statistica, Università Cattolica di Milano, Via Necchi 9, 20123 Milan (Italy)
New patterns of family formation in Italy. Which tools for which interpretations? (p. 15-52)
The Author puts forward a key to interpreting the change having taken place in social and demographic reproduction processes in Italy during the last few decades; he corroborates his arguments with a range of sources that are not always and necessarily orthodox in demographic terms, in order to answer five questions: when and where was the demographic change triggered? If changes occur not so much in behaviour as in its underlying rationale, how does the rationale of action change? What "explains" this change of rationale? What historical situations may have helped to activate this mechanism? And, lastly, what logical scheme is required to interpret the coexistence, in the same contexts, of the present demographic stagnation and some anomic mutations that undermined reciprocity systems during the epochal transition of the 1940s? (ITALY, HISTORY, FAMILY FORMATION, TRANSITIONAL SOCIETY)
97.48.2 - English - Pietro CERONE, Department of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Victoria University of Technology, P.O. Box 14428, MCMC Melbourne, Victoria 8001 (Australia). E-mail: pc@matilda.vut.edu.au.
On the effects of the generalised renewal integral equation model of population dynamics (p. 53-70)
Using the integral population model of Sharpe and Lotka as a basis, models are developed which contain time dependent changes of the maternity behaviour of a population. Stable population theory is extended to allow exponential, changes of the maternity behaviour by using modifications in the techniques developed by Cerone and Keane. The pattern of change of that behaviour is generalized to include changes described by sums of exponentials. Such a model is considered to appropriately describe any plausible a priori transition over time of the maternity regimen. A model is also developed which allows for discrimination of various contraception modes and their differential effect on the fertility of various age-groups of the population. Although the models are developed to describe time dependent decrease of the original maternity regimen, they may also be used to describe any typology of changes. (REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOUR, FERTILITY TRENDS, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, METHODOLOGY)
97.48.3 - English - Donald Trevor ROWLAND, Population Studies Program, Department of Sociology, Faculty of Arts, Australian National University, Canberra, A.C.T. 0200 (Australia)
Cohort survival in ageing populations: A model life table approach (p. 71-82)
In population where higher proportions are surviving longer, cohort life tables are a valuable means of measuring changes and anticipating future developments. Yet cohort life tables are calculated only infrequently from national mortality statistics because of difficulties in adjusting observed data and projecting cohort survival to facilitate regular updating, an approach to cohort life table construction is needed that circumvents the problems of data adjustment and projection. This paper proposes a method based on model life tables which provides information consistent with official life tables and projections of life expectancy. The paper also compares the results with those obtained by other methods and discusses some implications of trends in cohort survival. (LIFE EXPECTANCY, AGEING, GENERATION LIFE TABLES, METHODOLOGY)
97.48.4 - English - Arunachalam DHARMALINGAM, Population Studies Centre, University of Waikato, Hamilton (New Zealand)
The social context of family size preferences and fertility behaviour in a South Indian village (p. 83-103)
Family behaviour and family size preferences in a south Indian village are analysed using a quasi-anthropological approach. The evidence shows a strong preference for large families as a result of ample employment opportunities opened up for both males and females by emerging of labour-intensive small-scale industries, Changes in the economic structure of the village are also gradually altering the intergenerational and gender relationships. This particular aspect of social change could, by increasing the social and economic costs of children, lead to a preference for small families and consequently to a decline infertility. (INDIA, ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, LABOUR MARKET)
97.48.5 - English - Dilip C. NATH, Department of Statistics, Gauhati University, Guwahati 781014, Assam (India), et Giti GOSWAMI, Department of Statistics, Pandu College, Guwahati 781012, Assam (India)
The socio-demographic correlates of post-partum amenorrhoea in an urban society of India (p. 105-123)
Breast-feeding continues to be of major importance in prolonging the birth intervals in developing countries. Though the duration of post-partum amenorrhoea (PPA) - the waiting time between child bearing and resuming menses - is found to be influenced by the duration of breast-feeding, the duration of post-partum infertility is usually heterogeneous and much shorter than the total duration of breast-feeding. When the latter exceeds that of PPA, it may be misleading to analyse post-partum infertility by assuming breast-feeding as a fixed covariate. Since continuation of breast-feeding after resumption of menses may not influence the duration of PPA,. this study, by applying life table and multivariate hazard modelling techniques in a time dependent setting, investigates the effect of post-partum nursing behaviour on the return of menses and tries to identify the different underlying causes of heterogeneity contributing to the return of menses among the nursing mothers of an urban Hindu society in Assam. The particular pathway by which amenorrhoea is prolonged in this study appears to result from a late introduction of food supplements, low level of education, poor socioeconomic conditions and higher order parity. So it remains possible that poor health and nutritional status of educationally and economically backward classes is partly responsible for the lengthy post-partum infertile period of the lactating mothers. (INDIA, BREAST FEEDING, POST-PARTUM AMENORRHOEA, INFERTILE PERIOD)
97.48.6 - Italian - Daniela COCCHI, Daniele CRIVELLARO, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche "P. Fortunati", Università di Bologna, Via Belle Arti 41, 40126 Bologne (Italy), Gianpiero DALLA ZUANNA, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Università "La Sapienza", Via Nomentana 41, 00161 Rome (Italy), and Rossella RETTAROLI, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche "P. Fortunati", Università di Bologna, Via Belle Arti 41, 40126 Bologne (Italy)
Nuptiality, family and agricultural system in Italy in the 1880s (Nuzialità, famiglia e sistema agricolo in Italia negli anni '80 del XIX secolo) (p. 125-159)
This article is a contribution to the discussion on theories about household formation and marriage in Italy in the 1880s. Based on data of the 1881 census, it aims at verifying some hypotheses on the interdependence between marriage behaviour and socioeconomic and environmental factors, by using some multivariate statistical techniques. The authors propose a number of indicators and analyse their correlation matrix, before reducing the variables to a few relevant factors which summarize a major part of the available information. Such factors are employed to determine homogeneous areas for marriage behaviour.
Finally, they propose and measure some causal relationships between variables within two of the previously identified areas. Besides presenting relevant results, they want to stress the original features of such an approach for historical demographic research. (ITALY, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, NUPTIALITY, FAMILY FORMATION, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION)
JULY-DECEMBER 1996 - VOLUME 52, NUMBER 3-4
97.48.7 - English - Robert D. RETHERFORD and Norman Y. LUTHER, East West Center, Program on Population, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96848-1601 (U.S.A.), E-mail : retherfr@ewc.hawaii.edu; nluther@ewc.hawaii.edu.
Are fertility differentials by education converging in the United States? (p. 13-37)
According to the theory of demographic transition, fertility differentials by education tend to become strongly negative in the early stages of transition, because family limitation tends to catch on first among the more educated. As the transition proceeds, contraceptive use diffuses to the less educated, and fertility differentials by education eventually tend to reconverge. The question addressed here is: Do fertility differentials by education disappear or become positive in advanced industrial societies? Evidence presented in this paper indicates that in the United States they do not. As late as 1990, the latest year that we consider, fertility differentials by education were still strongly negative. (UNITED STATES, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, FERTILITY TRENDS, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)
97.48.8 - English - Himanshu PANDEY, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, 3 Professor Colony, Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur 273009, U.P. (India)
On a probability model of open birth interval (p. 39-45)
Many authors pointed out that analysis of open birth interval (the period elapsed from the last live birth till the date of the survey) could be of great interest to study the process of human reproduction, because it directly exhibits changes in fertility due to recent use of contraception or incidence of secondary sterility. Moreover, open birth interval may be chosen to study the linkage between fertility and migration. A probability model for describing variations in the length of open birth intervals has been applied separately to couples with both spouses present at home, and to couples with one spouse having migrated away. The model has then been applied to the survey data to get an estimate of the risk of conception and of secondary sterility. (BIRTH INTERVALS, FERTILITY, MIGRATION, STERILITY, STOCHASTIC MODELS)
97.48.9 - English - Sukumari N. NAIR, Population Research Centre, University of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram 695 581, Kerala (India)
Determinants of birth intervals in Kerala: An application of Cox's hazard model (p. 47-65)
Patterns of birth intervals can be considered as indirect measures of fertility dynamics over time and hence the determinants of birth intervals as the factors associated with fertility change. The present study is an attempt to delineate the differences in the patterns and determinants of birth intervals which appear highly relevant in a transitional population such as Kerala. In this country two comparable surveys, with a period difference of 20 years, were conducted. The study tries to estimate the effects of socioeconomic, demographic and proximate variables using Cox's proportional hazard model. For the former data-set, socio-economic variables have significant effect on birth intervals, while for the latter data proximate variables are the significant determinants of birth intervals. (INDIA, BIRTH INTERVALS, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, PROPORTIONAL HAZARD MODELS)
97.48.10 - English - Clifford Obby ODIMEGWU, Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Obatemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife (Nigeria), E-mail : codimeg@ogu.net, et Assata ZERAI, Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University, Maxwell School of Citizenship, New York (U.S.A.)
Understanding the proximate determinants of fertility of a Nigerian ethnic group (p. 67-87)
This paper uses data from a 1992/93 sample survey of 1,000 women aged 15-49 in selected areas of Imo State, Nigeria. The purpose of the survey was to get information/data on birth-spacing dynamics of the area. In this paper, we applied the basic Bongaarts model and its extended version to identify the proximate determinants of Igbo fertility. A total fertility rate 6.7 birth per woman is estimated from the model compared with a TFR of 7.26 actually observed from the survey. When compared with earlier studies, it is shown that the principal proximate determinants of fertility in the area is no more lactational infecundability, but delayed marriage. Explanations for this change, future research needs and policy implications are discussed. (NIGERIA, ETHNIC GROUPS, BIRTH SPACING, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)
97.48.11 - English - Jacob A. ADETUNJI, DHS, Macro International Inc., 11785 Beltsville Drive, Suite 300, Calverton, MD 20705 (U.S.A.), E-mail : Adetunji@macroint.com.
Infant mortality levels in Africa: Does method of estimation matter? (p. 89-106)
Using data from 13 Demographic and Health Surveys in Africa, this paper compares estimates of infant mortality directly calculated from data with those indirectly calculated using the Trussell (1975) and Feeney (1980) techniques. The results indicate that, on average, the directly calculated infant mortality rates were significantly lower than those estimated from indirect methods. Data errors alone can not plausibly explain such differences. Such series could infact show increases or decreases in infant mortality rates that would result mainly from differences in methods of calculation. (AFRICA, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, METHODOLOGY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)
97.48.12 - English - Frans VAN POPPEL, Ewa TABEAU, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague (The Netherlands), E-mail : poppel@nidi.nl; tabeau@nidi.nl, et Frans WILLEKENS, Population Studies Centre, Groningen University, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen (The Netherlands), E-mail : fj.willekens@frw.rug.nl.
Trends and sex-differentials in Dutch mortality since 1850: Insights from a cohort- and period-perspective (p. 107-134)
This paper makes use of a recently established comparative series of period and cohort life tables for the Netherlands for the period 1850-1991. Trends in period and cohort life expectancy at birth for males and females are discussed. A simple spline function is used to identify turning points in these trends. Trends in the contribution of specific age groups to the changes in life expectancy and to male excess mortality were studied using the Arriaga method. For this purpose, the results of period and cohort analysis were compared. (NETHERLANDS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, MORTALITY TRENDS, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS, PERIOD ANALYSIS)
97.48.13 - English - Lado RUZICKA, Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, Major's Creek, nr. Braidwood NSW 2622 (Australia), and Ching Y. CHOI, Welfare Division, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, G.P.O. Box 570, Canberra ACT 2601 (Australia)
Demographic and social profile of suicide mortality in Australia (p. 135-154)
In Australia, death rates from suicide of young and middle-age men increased between the early 1970s and the early 1990s, whereas those of older men and of women declined markedly. The article identifies the possible extent of under reporting of suicides. The study then examines variations in the incidence of suicide by selected social characteristics of the population: marital status, social class and economic conditions, province of residence and country of birth. It closes by suggesting a tentative conceptual model linking social structures with levels of suicide. (AUSTRALIA, SUICIDE, UNDERREGISTRATION, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS)
97.48.14 - English - Tapiwa JHAMBA, Sociology Department, Box MP 167, Mt. Pleasant, Harare (Zimbabwe), E-mail : tjhamba@sociol.uz.zw.
Childhood mortality differentials in Zimbabwe: Evidence from two surveys (p. 155-172)
This paper examines the factors associated with infant mortality differentials in Zimbabwe, using data from two surveys, the 1984 ZRHS and 1988 ZDHS. An index of infant mortality based on the ratio of observed to expected deaths was used by the multivariate analysis as a measure of infant mortality for each woman. Infant mortality was highest among women who were illiterate, lived on commercial farms, first married before the age of 15, never used modern contraceptives or were given no prenatal care. Moreover, several significant differences among regions are highlighted. (ZIMBABWE, INFANT MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY)
97.48.15 - Italian - Letizia MENCARINI, Dipartimento Statistico, Università di Firenze, V.le Morgagni, 59, 50139 Florence (Italy), E-mail : mencarin@stat.ds.unifi.it.
Internal migration in Italy: Reviews on studies carried out since 1990 (Rassegna degli studi sulla mobilità interna italiana nei primi anni '90) (p. 173-188)
This article intends to present the content of the studies mentioned in the bibliography in order to underline both the common and the original elements of the description of the most recent general tendencies of short and long distance migrations. Economic variables appear to have lost a good deal of their explanatory capacity on behalf of causal factors linked with the 'life cycle'. Are also mentioned the main conceptual categories used in order to define the consequences of migrations on the spatial distribution of populations: so-called 'atomistic' settlements models, based on administrative units, are now in competition with the growing importance of 'functional' models, based on pull areas. (ITALY, INTERNAL MIGRATION, MIGRATION TRENDS, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS, RESEARCH)
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