Back to Home pageFrance (Paris) 46
POPULATION
JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1997 - 52TH YEAR, NUMBER 1
97.46.1 - French - Alexandre AVDEEV, Institut des questions socio-?conomiques de la population, Moscou (Russia), Alain BLUM, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France), Serge ZAKHAROV, Institut de la pr?vision ?conomique, Moscou (Russia), and Evgenij ANDREEV, Institut de la statistique, Moscou (Russia)
The reaction of a heterogeneous population to perturbation. An interpretative model of mortality trends in Russia (R?action d'une population h?t?rog?ne ? une perturbation. Un mod?le d'interpr?tation des ?volutions de mortalit? en Russie) (p. 7-44)
The rapid increase in mortality in Russia during the past ten years is perplexing. Several authors have explored these movements in depth. In this paper, the authors offer a new interpretation of these dynamics which complements those put forward by previous authors. It shows that the dynamics cannot be studies without taking account of previous movements observed since the 1960s. They suggest that recent developments are the cumulative result of a compensation mechanism which followed the rapid decrease in mortality which occurred around 1985, and of the continuation of a deterioration movement which began in the early 1960s. It does not represent a new trend to a rapidly deteriorating situation. To prove this and to explain these rapid fluctuations, the authors have developed a model based on hypotheses which involve heterogeneous populations. In addition to analyzing mortality in Russia, they provide new models which relate to the consequences of heterogeneity on the dynamics of mortality. (RUSSIA, MORTALITY TRENDS, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS, SOCIAL HETEROGENEITY)
97.46.2 - French - V?ronique HERTRICH, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Are men's and women's answers to be equaly trusted? A dual data collection on maternity and fertility issues in a population in Mali (Les r?ponses des hommes valent-elles celles des femmes ? Une double collecte sur les questions g?n?siques et matrimoniales dans une population du Mali) (p. 45-62)
In this paper the author compares statements made by men and women respectively in replying to a dual survey about aspects of their married lives and children born in their marriages. Contrary to expectation, men's report on pregnancies which did not result in a live birth were more accurate than those of women, perhaps because women tend not to remember of fail to report events which they regard as failures to conceive. Failure to report the deaths of young children is, on the other hand, more common among men and estimates of mortality derived from their reproductive histories are thus lower than those obtained from an analysis of data reported by women. The trend of men under-reporting is not, however, significant relative to the total number of live births, and does not prevent the constructions of a fairly accurate measure of men's fertility. As regards marriage, information obtained from men tends to be more reliable than that obtained from women: men describe the components of the processes preceding marriage more thoroughly, especially as regards more remote periods. This is probably a reflection of their greater involvement in the marriage process. Women do not get involved in the process until later, and have only a limited knowledge of its implications, so their statements on marriage procedures and their evolution are less satisfactory. The results suggest that family biographies supplied by men are more useful. (MALI, DATA COLLECTION, QUALITY OF DATA, SEX DIFFERENTIALS, NUPTIALITY, PREGNANCY HISTORY)
97.46.3 - French - Nathalie M. OSTROOT, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, Michigan (U.S.A.)
Estimating urban mortality under the 'Ancien R?gime': Aix-en-Provence and Toulouse in 1695 (L'estimation de la mortalit? urbaine sous l'Ancien R?gime : Aix-en-Provence et Toulouse en 1695) (p. 63-76)
When estimates of death rates were established for the end of the seventeenth century, some of the calculated rates were so low that it was presumed that a serious under registration of deaths had occurred. The INED studies of villages have ascertained that indeed, in many communities, there was widespread under registration of deaths, especially for children. In larger cities it has been more difficult to establish the nature of the under registration. Partly, the under registration is undoubtedly real, but to a great extent it reflects a failure to collect burial registrations from all the diverse locations that conducted burials in the seventeenth century. This study reports the results of an exhaustive research of all the burials registers corresponding to the many burial sites existing in Aix-en-Provence and Toulouse in 1695. The investigation uncovered numerous burials that had been overlooked by earlier research. The revised burial statistics imply death rates that are comparable to rates believed to be reliable for other cities at the end of the seventeenth century. (FRANCE, CITIES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, DATA COLLECTION)
97.46.4 - French - Pierre VILLA
The capital in education: A demographic approach (Le capital ?ducatif : une approche d?mographique) (p. 77-102)
Macroeconomic time series of human capital are computed for France over a long period. The educational level is used to discriminate the quality and the efficiency of different types of labour. Computations use the perpetual-inventory method. In addition, we make use of vital statistics concerning the population age and gender structure and the participation (activity) rates, of educational data concerning degrees attainments and years of schooling, and of surveys concerning the link between wages and educational levels.
It allows us to compute several indicators of educational capital, investment and scrapping: the bachelor stock in the 15-65 aged population, the structure of the working population, the 'stock of education' in person years of schooling. The average years of schooling and the structure of the working population according to years of schooling evolve gradually and are little disturbed by wars, but show two breakings around 1960 (baby-boom) and 1980 (extension of education after high school). Inequalities concerning schooling are stable at their lowest level in recent years. The educational investment fluctuates according to demographic reasons but its trend is given by the increase of women school attendance, the increase of their participation in the labour force and the general lengthening of higher education after the Second World War. (FRANCE, HISTORY, HUMAN RESSOURCES, EDUCATION, LABOUR FORCE)
97.46.5 - French - Herv? LE BRAS, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Projections of the foreign population: A ten-year perspective (Dix ans de perspectives de la population ?trang?re : une perspective) (p. 103-134)
During the last ten years several projections relating to the resident foreign population of France have been constructed. These may be compared with estimates of the same foreign population at the date for which forecasts have been made. These show that the accuracy of the projection depends on the way in which the forecasters view laws relating to citizenship. The expectations - explicit as well as implicit - of those who made the projection do affect the result. It is shown in this context how a demographic approach focused on 'immigrants' can shift to a legal approach focused on the notion of 'citizenship' and sometimes even to a biological approach by denying any possibility of naturalization to some groups. Lastly, a simple procedure is outlined on how to project foreign populations in order to de-mystify the process of computerised calculations. (FRANCE, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POPULATION ESTIMATES, FOREIGNERS, IMMIGRANTS)
97.46.6 - French - Mich?le TRIBALAT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Rewriting history: The strange case of foreign population projections in France (Une surprenante r??criture de l'histoire des projections de population ?trang?re) (p. 137-148)
In this article, the author gives us a very different version of the history of 'foreign population projections' in France in the 80s. In 1979-1980, Herv? Le Bras himself directed a research project commissioned by the 'Haut Comit? de la Population'. The outcome of that project, she argues, is a rare example of what should not be done when projecting populations. It combines several methodological errors: departures of foreigners taken as absolute numbers (leading to the emergence of 'negative populations' plus a fIuctuating definition of 'nationality' (narrow at the beginning of the projection, wider later on). To these must be added several mistakes in the calculation proper. In the preceding article, Herv? Le Bras covers up his tracks. In so doing, he again uses a 'biological' definition of the foreign population, a conceptual choice that he never tires of denouncing elsewhere. (FRANCE, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, POPULATION ESTIMATES, FOREIGNERS, IMMIGRANTS)
MARCH-APRIL 1997 - 52TH YEAR, NUMBER 2
97.46.7 - French - Brigitte BACCA?NI, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Types and causes of recent growth in the suburban districts of the Ile-de-France (Modalit?s et causes de la croissance r?cente des communes p?riurbaines d'?le-de-France) (p. 291-326)
During the past several decades, settlement in the lle-de-France has, in common with the majority of large urban areas, experienced a rapid decongestion called suburbanization. After highlighting the specific situation of suburban development in the lle-de-France, which has served as a point of transition between urban areas and the contryside, and the special features of the population who lived there in 1990 (over-representation of families with children and underprivileged social groups with housing primarily belonging to owner-occupiers) this paper deals with recent migration of the suburban population in order to explain the causes and types of demographic growth in this type of environment.
Decongestion of the Paris urban area is responsible for nearly three quarters of new suburban dwellers, and involves populations with very different socio-demographic characteristics from those who had migrated from the provinces and those who had lived in the suburban districts of the Ile-de-France for a longer period of time. The occupational distribution of recent in-migrants to the suburbs also varied significantly in different geographical areas and selection effects have reinforced the existing specificity of various sectors.
In a second paper, the author will discuss the relationships between recent migratory movements and the journey to work of the active suburban population. (FRANCE, CAPITAL CITY, REGIONS, SUBURBANIZATION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES)
97.46.8 - French - Brigitte BACCA?NI, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Periurban commuters in the Ile-de-France region (Les navettes des p?riurbains d'?le-de-France) (p. 327-364)
This article examines the consequences of urban sprawl beyond the Paris urban area (analyzed in the previous paper) for home-workplace journeys of the economically active population.
The large employment shortfall in the periurban zone (despite employment decentralization), means that the economically active living here commute on average twice as far as their counterparts living in Paris itself. Yet if residential location explains much of the probability of commuting a long distance, the characteristics of the economically active themselves also have to be taken into account. The impact of spatial constraints and sensitivity to distance vary with sex, household structure (particularly whether or not double-income), socio-professional category, and stage in family and professional life cycle. Depending on the recent migratory itinerary, choices and priorities as regards residential location vary, influencing the likelihood of being able to work near to one's home. The article shows that the spatial behaviour of individuals can only be understood by considering the often complicated interaction between different types of mobility. (FRANCE, CAPITAL CITY, REGIONS, SUBURBANIZATION, COMMUTING)
97.46.9 - French - Andrea CAMMELLI, Angelo di FRANCIA and Angelo GUERRIERO, Universit? de Bologne (Italy)
Declining admissions to Italian universities by 2008 (Le d?clin des entr?es ? l'Universit? italienne d'ici 2008) (p. 365-380)
For the first time since Italian Unification (1861), the number of potential entrants to Italy's universities is declining rapidly. This situation is due to the fall in the birthrate which began in the 1960s, first and most dramatically in the northern regions, later and less spectacularly in the rest of the country. The present study, based on the population of young people of university age, shows that their number will fall by 31-35% between 1995 and 2008. An international comparison brings to light the unique nature of the problems that characterize the Italian context. The hypothetical scenarios for the evolution of the student population, based on various envolment rates (by age and by level), indicate the possibility of large regional imbalances and eventual decline for the university system if, as has traditionally been the case, it remains almost exclusively geared to educating young people (at present only 5% of the 20 or over age group holds a university degree, corresponding to at least 4 years post secondary school education). Yet this is also a historically unique occasion to completely restructure higher education in Italy, made possible by the fall in the number of young people and by the programmed retirement of almost half of existing university teachers. (ITALY, FERTILITY DECLINE, UNIVERSITIES, COLLEGE STUDENTS)
97.46.10 - French - Belco KODIO and Jean-Fran?ois ETARD, Institut National de Recherche en Sant? Publique, Bamako (Mali)
Recent evolution of infant mortality at Bamako, Mali (?volution r?cente de la mortalit? infantile ? Bamako, Mali) (p. 381-398)
A follow-up study of 4,575 live births to 4,718 pregnant women in the Bankoni neighbourhood of Bamako is the basis for estimating the various risk factors of infant mortality. The cohort was formed in 1989-1992, and the last birth was in August 1993. Neonatal, post-neonatal and infant death rates were estimated at, respectively, 15, 40 and 55.6 per 1,000 live births. A survival analysis was used to identify a number of independent predictors of infant mortality: twin births (RR = 5,0 [3.3 - 7.71]), primiparity (RR = 1.5 [1.1 - 2.1]), length of residence a neighbourhood less than 5 years (RR = 1,4 [1.1 - 1.9]), children born between 1991 and 19 (RR = 1.4 [1.1 - 1.9]) and during the hot, rainy season (RR = 1.4 [1.1 - 1.91]).
A selection bias caused by the proportion of live-born children but not seen again their birthday is examined. This estimate of infant mortality, based on a short and recent period, is lower than earlier estimates from the 1980s for Bamako city. But it is comparable to urban infant mortality in the period 1983-1992 for Senegal, where a strong fall has been observed since the mid-1980s. A recent estimate for the third-largest city in Mali (Sikasso) suggests the same pattern as Bamako. (MALI, CAPITAL CITY, INFANTILY MORTALITY, MORTALITY TRENDS)
97.46.11 - French - Kamel KATEB, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France)
Administrative management of Algerian emigration to Muslim countries following the conquest of Algeria: 1830-1914 (La gestion administrative de l'?migration alg?rienne vers les pays musulmans au lendemain de la conqu?te de l'Alg?rie, 1830-1914 (p. 399-428)
Many studies have been devoted to the Algerian emigration to France in the present century, but researchers and historians have paid little attention to the emigration which followed the conquest of Algeria. Yet as the archives of the period make clear, this was a question of considerable concern to the French authorities responsible for the new colony. They were prepared to encourage a migratory movement which was consistent with plans to replace the native population by a European population. At the same time, however, this emigration conflicted with French geopolitical objectives in the Middle East where many migrants settled. As a result the attitude of the authorities was contradictory, favouring emigration by small groups yet opposing such movements when they exceeded a certain size. How many people were involved in these migratory movements? What were their demographic characteristics and their reasons for migrating? Were political and religious factors the sole driving forces in this emigration, as contemporary reports and letters suggest? (ALGERIA, HISTORY, EMIGRATION, COLONIAL COUNTRIES, MIGRATION POLICY)
MAY-JUNE 1997 - 52TH YEAR, NUMBER 3
97.46.12 - French - V?ronique PETIT, Cerpaa, Universit? de Paris V, Paris (France)
Society of origin and the logics of migration: The Dogon of Sangha, Mali (Soci?t? d'origine et logiques migratoires?: les Dogon de Sangha (Mali)) (p. 515-544)
The migration system of the Dogon of Sangha, Mali, contains three components: a migration to agricultural lands in the Seno Gondo plain, an internal migration, and an international migration, the two latter being urban. The first of these migrations is an authentic colonizing movement and has to be analyzed in a socio-anthropological perspective, as a reflection of the organization of the extended family and the clan. Intense economic, religious and social exchanges take place between the villages of origin and those in the plain. The urban migrations, whether internal or international, are more individualistic. However, they should not be interpreted uniquely in economic terms, for although they do reflect a desire for personal gain, they are also the expression of a rejection by young people of the traditional social system in which men and elder sons monopolize power to the exclusion of young people and women. Migration is shown to have a heuristic value in revealing the functioning of the social system. (MALI, ETHNIC GROUPS, MIGRATION, SOCIOLOGY)
97.46.13 - French - Jean-Marie LE GOFF, Laboratoire de d?mographie ?conomique et sociale, Universit? de Gen?ve, Geneva (Switzerland)
The mobility of young people after their first stable employment (Mobilit? des jeunes ? l'issue de leur premier emploi stable) (p. 545-570)
This article explores the relationships between the length of the first stable employment obtained by young people who completed their schooling in the 1980s and their subsequent mobility pattern. The frequency of the different mobilities is measured in relation to, first, the characteristics of the young people at the end of their schooling and their professional experience prior to obtaining stable employment, second, the characteristics of this employment and of the employer. The analysis of these different constraints, placed in the context of labour market conditions, is used to identify several levels of regulation for the length of time employment is held. The analysis is based on an application of event history analysis to data from a survey on the employment experience of young people completing their education at baccalaureat level in 1983. (SWITZERLAND, YOUNG WORKERS, LABOUR MOBILITY)
97.46.14 - French - G?rard NEYRAND and Marine M'SILI, Centre interdisciplinaire m?diterran?en d'?tudes et de recherches en sciences sociales (Cimerss)
Mixed couples in contemporary France. Marriage, acquisition of French nationality and divorce (Les couples mixtes dans la France contemporaine. Mariage, acquisition de la nationalit? fran?aise et divorce) (p. 571-606)
Mixed nationality marriages tend to involve people of above average social class. This is true of French partners in relation to the French population in general and of foreign partners in relation to their compatriots resident in France. Among the latter, social level is higher still in the mixed couples in which the foreign partner takes French nationality after marriage. The propensity to take French nationality is found to vary according to the national origin and the gender of the foreign partner. Occurring in a rapidly changing legal and cultural context, this interaction of the variables that are specific to the situation of mixed nationality marriages - the national origin and gender of the foreign partner- produces a variety of effects, notably a propensity to divorce that varies greatly according to the gender of the foreign partner. (FRANCE, MIXED MARRIAGE, NATURALIZATION, DIVORCE, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS)
97.46.15 - French - Pierre DARLU, INSERM, U155, Epid?miologie g?n?tique, Paris (France), Anna DEGIOANNI, CNR, Istituto di Genetica Biochimica ed Evoluzionistica, Pavie (Italy), and Jacques RUFFI?, Coll?ge de France, Paris (France)
Some statistics on the distribution of surnames (Quelques statistiques sur la distribution des patronymes en France) (p. 607-634)
The list of French surnames has been compiled from the INSEE file of births registered during two periods: 1891-1915 and 1916-1940. Statistics on the total number of surnames, on the proportion that are represented by a single birth and on the number of surnames for 100 births, are given by department for the two periods considered and distinguish the communes where fewer than 800 births were registered over 25 years. These statistics by department are compared with immigration rates, consanguinity rates and the mean number of children per family. Lastly, a list of the most common surnames is given, distinguishing those present everywhere and those with marked regional variations. There were approximately 450,000 surnames in France at the end of the nineteenth century, and for 100 surnames that disappeared in the course of this period, almost 180 new surnames appeared in the first half of the twentieth century. (FRANCE, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, SURNAME, HISTORY)
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