YEARBOOK OF POPULATION RESEARCH IN FINLAND

Finland (Helsinki) 44

1996 - NUMBER 33

97.44.1 - English - Bertil EGERÖ, PROP-Programme on Population and Development, Department of Sociology, University of Lund (Sweden)

In the frontline or the backwater? The Nordic countries and the global population drama (p. 7-20)

Backed by a long history of domestic population statistics and analysis, Nordic social science -- including demography -- could well be in the forefront of international scientific attention to the global drama of population dynamics and development. But this appears not to be the case.

The paper is devoted to a discussion of this state of affairs. Following a brief presentation of the current state of population dynamics, it offers a few examples to show the value of a wider social science approach to the analysis of population/development relations. Dramatic features in current development are contrasted against the relative lack of engagement of demographers and social scientists today.

Finally, a case is made for the strengthening of links between demography and social science in general -- indeed for "population studies" as a field of joint enquiry, combining the rigor of demographic methods and techniques with the theoretical substance of the social sciences. (SCANDINAVIA, RESEARCH, DEMOGRAPHY, SOCIAL SCIENCES, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT)

97.44.2 - English - Fjalar FINNÄS, Social Science Research Unit, Åbo Akademi University, Vaasa (Finland)

Separations among Finnish women born between 1938-1967 (p. 21-33)

The study of dissolutions in Finland until 1989 confirms corresponding findings from other countries. Consensual unions and marriages preceded by consensual unions were less stable than direct marriages. We do not interpret this as a causal relation, but rather as an outcome of a selection process. The choice of type of union is an indicator of the general attitudes and norms with respect to family formation and divorces. Furthermore, it is no longer meaningful to classify the unions according to format marital status at the entry into the union. At present less than one union out of ten is a direct marriage, and we should instead focus on the marital status at entry into parenthood. (FINLAND, MARRIAGE, CONSENSUAL UNION, PREMARITAL COHABITATION, END OF UNION)

97.44.3 - English - Jan M. HOEM, Demography Unit, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden)

The harmfulness or harmlessness of using an anticipatory regressor: How dangerous is it to use education achieved as of 1990 in the analysis of divorce risks in earlier years? (p. 34-43)

The case studies presented in this paper show that the chance of making a sensible analysis of the effect of education on divorce risks may be ruined for women who marry as teenagers if the educational variable is measured only at the end of the study period. By contrast, these adverse effects seem to be unimportant once the age at marriage is 20 or more. (METHODOLOGY, BIAS, DIVORCE, AGE AT MARRIAGE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)

97.44.4 - English - Hong YING, Demography Unit, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden)

Patterns of divorce risk in the 1970s and 1980s for Swedish women with a gymnasium education (p. 44-59)

This paper investigates the first-marriage divorce patterns of Swedish women with a gymnasium education. We have used a hazard regression model to investigate the impact of a number of variables on divorce risks. Our general findings are consistent with previous studies: divorce risks have a strong negative relationship with age at marriage and with parity, and those who have premarital children or are pregnant at marriage have higher divorce risks than those who do not. The divorce risk increased over the cohorts born between 1948 and 1963. Important new findings are (i) that the risk of divorce varies with educational orientation, (ii) that within educational groups, women from an academic gymnasium have a lower divorce risk than those from a vocational gymnasium, (iii) that in each educational group, the risk varies inversely with the proportion of women employed. (SWEDEN, DIVORCE, LEVELS OF EDUCATION, WOMEN)

97.44.5 - English - Turid NOACK, Division for Social and Demographic Research, Statistics Norway, Oslo (Norway)

How many people are involuntarily childless? (p. 60-72)

The number of permanently childless women has fluctuated considerably among the Norwegian women born in this century, from less than ten percent to twice that. Childlessness, especially involuntary childlessness, receives far more attention today than it did 15 to 20 years ago. Delayed child-bearing and innovation developed in the field of modern reproduction technology have heightened interest in childlessness. Some people seem to believe that the incidence of reproduction problems has increased steadily and is well on its way to assuming epidemic proportions. Others make a point of childlessness by choice. Emphasis is attached to clarifying the terminology used to discuss different ways of distinguishing childlessness and types of childlessness. The data have been taken from two major interview surveys, the Fertility Survey 1977 (FS 77) and the Family and Occupation Survey 1988 (F&O 88). Our findings do not indicate that infecundity became more common during the decade covering the latter half of the 1970s and early half of the 1980s. The total percentage of permanently childless women shows signs of increasing slightly from its level of just less than ten percent. This increase is probably due as much to "voluntary" as involuntary childlessness. (NORWAY, INFERTILITY, VOLUNTARY CHILDLESSNESS, STERILITY)

97.44.6 - English - Jens-Kristian BORGAN, Statistics Norway, Oslo (Norway)

Socioeconomic trends in differential mortality among middle-aged males in Norway 1960-1990 (p. 73-81)

This study is based on data from three censuses (1960, 1979, and 1980) linked to the cause of death statistics kept during a 10-year follow-up period subsequent to each census. Linkages have been made for each individual male aged 30-64 years at the time of the census, based on their Norwegian national personal identification numbers. Socioeconomic status categories are specified according to the Norwegian classification of socioeconomic status. The 10-year post-census follow-up periods have each been divided into two five-year periods, and mortality has been calculated for both, based on the subjects' socioeconomic status at the outset of the 10-year period.

The study showed a decrease in mortality for all socioeconomic status categories. However, the decrease was far more pronounced among mean-level and higher-level salaried employees than among unskilled workers, farmers and fishermen. An even larger socioeconomic gap appeared between the rates of mortality due to cardiovascular disease. There are indications that the gaps may be health-related, since workers' mortality rate increased from the first to the second five-year period following a census, while the same pattern was not found for salaried employees. (NORWAY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MALE MORTALITY, ADULT MORTALITY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS)

97.44.7 - English - Hans O. HANSEN, Institute of Statistics, Copenhagen University, Copenhague (Denmark)

Social and biological issues in infant survivorship among Danish cohorts born between 1982 and 1990 (p. 82-100)

The purpose of this project is to identify possible differentials in the infant survivorship of the Danish cohorts born between 1982 and 1990. The principal characteristics to be considered are gender and birth weight. Our data consist of official records of live births and infant deaths linked at the individual level. We report some rather detailed measurements of the survivorship impact of sex and birth weight in the framework of logistic regression and loglinear modeling. This paper gives strong support to sex and birth weight as major determinants of infant survivorship. Falling infant mortality is closely associated with increasing expected birth weight over the birth cohorts considered. The present paper should be seen as an appetizer for addressing the more general question of birth weight as an intermediate variable for survivorship impacts of biosocial factors related to the parents and to intrauterine gestation. (DENMARK, CHILD SURVIVAL, COHORT ANALYSIS, BIRTH WEIGHT, SEX)

97.44.8 - English - Olle LUNDBERG, Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden), and Ingemar KÅREHOLT, Department of Social Work, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden)

The social patterning of mortality in a cohort of elderly Swedes (p. 101-110)

Social class differences in mortality among the elderly have received only limited interest. In this paper we analyze the impact of social class on mortality from mid-life onwards.

In 1968 1,860 persons born between 1892 and 1915 were interviewed and followed in the national cause of death registry for the period 1968-1991. In addition, 537 of the 563 survivors were re-interviewed in 1992. We employ proportional hazard regressions to analyze the impact of social class on death risks over time.

There are fairly small class differences in the probability of reaching old age. However, it appears that mortality differentials were steeper before retirement age than after. Still, the size of class differences in mortality seem smaller than expected on the basis of other studies. At the same time steep class gradients in illness and functional abilities exist among survivors. Some possible explanations for these somewhat contradictory findings are discussed. (SWEDEN, AGED, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SOCIAL CLASSES)

97.44.9 - English - Anders NORDLUND, Department of Health and Society, Institute of Tema Research, Linköping University, Linköping (Sweden)

Cancer mortality in Sweden from 1931 to 1992 (p. 111-118)

Trends in age-standardized cancer mortality for Swedish men and women, between 1931 and 1992, were studied using official cause of death statistics. Overall, age-standardized cancer mortality increased by about 16 percent among men and decreased by about six percent among women during the period studied. Among both men and women older than 70 years, age-standardized cancer mortality increased. In all other age groups decreases occurred. During the period studied, a number of changes have occurred that affect cause of death registration, for example, changes in classification routines and improved diagnosis. The exact magnitude of these effects on the observed trends is difficult to estimate, but it seems clear that a bias towards increasing age-standardized cancer mortality has been introduced. Furthermore, this bias may be substantial, thus obscuring the real trends in age-standardized cancer mortality. (SWEDEN, MORTALITY TRENDS, CANCER, BIAS)

97.44.10 - English - Jan HJARNØ, Danish Center for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Esbjerg (Denmark)

International migration, fertility, lifestyles, and social structure (p. 119-135)

This paper has two aims. First, it calls attention to the neoracists, who exploit the results of demographic research for their evil propaganda. Second, it raises the question whether the subject matter of demography, is the appropriate category to work with if demographers really want to make a substantial contribution to an understanding of social development. The presentation starts with neoracism and presents an example of how one Danish demographer has published strange research most pleasing to the neoracist way of thinking. Then a model for structural lifestyle analysis is presented. This model, which is still in the developmental stage, may enable demographers to study groups of real people according to their social identities/lifestyles. Finally, the model for structural lifestyle analysis will be applied to a set of empirical data on three groups of immigrants to demonstrate how we may gain new insight into the importance of certain lifestyles in economic development. In addition, we will see how specific lifestyles and rates of fertility may be related and cause the high rates of fertility in some of the new ethnic minorities, rates which the neoracists view as something very threatening, but which may be very positive for the future development of our society. (DENMARK, RACIAL DISCRIMINATION, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, LIFE STYLES, SOCIAL STRUCTURE)

97.44.11 - English - Hans O. HANSEN, Institute of Statistics, Copenhagen University, Copenhague (Denmark), and Paul S. MAXIM, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON (Canada)

Some patterns and social impacts of external migration on a below-replacement population: Denmark by the turn of the millenium (p. 136-149)

As with many other nations in Europe, Denmark has experienced below-replacement fertility over the past three decades. The impact on population growth of the recent fertility decline to a large extent has been offset by a positive net balance of external migration. To provide a factual basis for a wide range of policy issues and social and cultural impacts we start by studying external migration, differential fertility, naturalization of foreign nationals, and population growth in the framework of multidimensional life models. Migrants and naturalized citizens tend to have reproductive behavior and sex/age profiles that differ significantly from those of the remaining population. To study some concerted demographic and social impacts of such differentials, we construct a number of midterm projections based on existing and expected development of fertility, mortality, and migration. (DENMARK, BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, NATURALIZATION)

97.44.12 - English - Ismo SÖLDERLING, The Population Research Institute, Väestöliitto, The Family Federation of Finland, Helsinki (Finland)

Attitudes of Finnish students towards immigrants (p. 150-156)

Since the late1980s the migration balance has been positive to Finland due to decreased emigration and increased migration, especially from the former Soviet Union area. The aim of the paper was to give answers to the following questions: What are the attitudes towards immigrants and demographic internationalism among the students in Finland? What are the main factors explaining the differences? How do the students fit into Berry's acculturation model (his model consists of four acculturation groups: integrated, assimilated, segregated, and marginalized groups)?

The material was collected in May 1994. The population of the study consisted of all the students who started their studies between 1990-1993 at the University of Turku. The sample was 300 and 187 students returned the questionnaire (62.3%).

Using factor analysis and sum-variables four different attitude groups were created: ethnocentrics (35%), hesitants (21 %), egoists (13%), and globalists (31 %). The results of the study indicated that Berry's model is also useful when categorizing the attitudes of the people of the host country: more than 92% of the globalists had an integrative opinion about immigration. As few as 4% of the globalists were marginalists (against immigration), while the corresponding figure among ethnocentrics was 14%. (FINLAND, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION, OPINION SURVEYS, STUDENTS)

97.44.13 - English - Pieter BEVELANDER and Kirk SCOTT, Department of Economic History, Lund University, Lund (Sweden)

The employment and income performance of immigrants in Sweden, 1970-1990 (p. 157-172)

In recent decades, Sweden has suffered from a relatively low growth rate, while undergoing a transformation towards increased service sector employment and decreased industrial employment. Simultaneously with the economic changes, the constitution of immigration to Sweden has also changed significantly, shifting from European labor migrants to non-European refugees and tied movers. This paper discusses the forces behind the decreasing labor market attachment among immigrants to Sweden in the period 1970-1990. Points of special interest here are employment rates and relative incomes of various immigrant nationalities. This is accomplished through the charting of labor force participation rates and employment patterns of different immigrant groups over the period in question. The statistics in this paper are based on the five most recent Swedish censuses, from which we have data at the individual level regarding age, sex, country of origin, employment status, sector of employment, and immigration year. (SWEDEN, IMMIGRANTS, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION, INCOME, NATIONALITY)

97.44.14 - English - Lars-Erik BORGEGÅRD, Johan HÅKANSSON and Dieter K. MÜLLER, Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umeå University, Umeå (Sweden)

The changing residential patterns of immigrants - The case of Sweden 1973-1992 (p. 173-183)

Swedish immigration policy has recently changed. The plan known as "Whole of Sweden Strategy" no longer applies, and there is greater freedom to choose where one lives. Migration is important in the redistribution of the population, and thus immigration plays a significant role. In light of this, there are good grounds for following how concentration and dispersion of immigrant groups vary, both geographically and in time. (SWEDEN, IMMIGRANTS, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION, MIGRATION POLICY)

97.44.15 - English - Elli HEIKKILÄ, Research Institute of Northern Finland, University of Oulu, Kajaani (Finland)

New patterns of spatial distribution of the population in Kainuu, Finland (p. 184-192)

Migration is a process of long duration, which reflects the migrant's needs and values. The causes of migration relate to the physical and social environments, and these factors can be described by push and pull theories. The probability of moving to a specific location depends on the differential attractiveness of the various regions available to the migrant.

The rise of the turnaround phenomenon in migration in the developed countries has been explained by changes in the place-preference value system. Migration to the countryside has focused on areas within easy access of the main built-up areas in Kainuu, Finland. (FINLAND, REGIONS, TURNAROUND MIGRATION, POPULATION DISTRIBUTION)

97.44.16 - English - Marie REIJO-RISKILÄ, Department of Sociology, Population Research Unit, University of Helsinki (Finland)

Effects of family characteristics on the labor force status of older married women in Finland (p. 193-206)

Using individual-level characteristics derived from the census of 1985 or earlier, the article examines labor force status (employment, unemployment, household work, retirement) of married Finnish women aged 45-64 on the basis of multinomial logit analysis. Controlling for background characteristics, i.e., age, education, health, industry and unemployment in the local labor market area, the effects of family characteristics were analyzed.

Both higher family net income (excluding the income of the women concerned) and higher family liabilities were related to lower likelihoods of unemployment and retirement instead of employment. Household work was more likely with higher family income, but less likely with higher liabilities. A larger number of children living at home was related to the lower likelihood of women occupying non-employment statuses instead of employment. The spouses' increasing age difference was related to the lower likelihood of unemployment and retirement instead of employment. The husband's labor force status was consistent with the wife's labor force status. (FINLAND, WOMEN'S STATUS, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION, DEPENDENCY BURDEN, HOUSEHOLD INCOME)

97.44.17 - English - Helka HYTTI, The Social Insurance Institution, Helsinki (Finland)

Active and retirement life expectancy in Finland (p. 207-217)

The main purpose of the study was to examine how retirement and active life time have changed in relation to the total life expectancy in the Finnish population over the period 1970-1993. The study also aimed at finding out how the ratio between pensioners and the active population will evolve, if the general aim of Finnish pension policy, to postpone retirement, is reached. Active and retirement life expectancies were calculated by the prevalence-based Sullivan method. The data consisted of official life tables and joint statistics on the share of pension recipients in the total population of Finland. The central finding was that the increase in life expectancy had almost exclusively lengthened the time spent in retirement. Active life expectancy at birth varied relatively little. Early retirement had increasingly concentrated in the population aged 55-64, while in the middle-aged population, those under 55, active years had increased more than total years of life. Prolonging active life expectancy at birth by one year per decennium from 1990 to 2020 would reduce the increase in the pensioner population by nearly one half compared with the growth projected on the basis of 1990 prevalence rates. (FINLAND, EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH, EXPECTATION OF WORKING LIFE, WITHDRAW FROM THE LABOUR FORCE, RETIREMENT)

97.44.18 - English - Bertil EGERÖ, PROP - Programme on Population and Development, Department of Sociology, University of Lund (Sweden)

Poverty and fertility: Reproductive change under persistent poverty (p. 218-242)

Bangladesh belongs to a group of countries with persistent and widespread poverty where the beginnings of fertility decline have now been recorded. The absence of any visibly significant socioeconomic changes for its rural majority has been used to justify claims that family planning activities have an independent effect on fertility. The paper draws together available evidence on the circumstances of rural life in Bangladesh. Taken together, the evidence is that changes have occurred in social relations in the household, brought about by economic crisis and in turn enabling changes in childbearing.

The Bangladesh evidence confirms the difficulties encountered on a conceptual level in trying to maintain a distinction between materialist and ideational approaches to fertility analysis. The distinction between the two lines is unclear, and upholding it could be counterproductive to advances in the understanding of fertility change. (BANGLADESH, BIAS, FERTILITY DECLINE, POVERTY, METHODOLOGY)

97.44.19 - English - Benedicte INGSTAD, Section of Medical Anthropology, University of Oslo (Norway), Helge BRUNBORG, Statistics Norway, Oslo (Norway), and Frank J. BRUUN, Section of Medical Anthropology, University of Oslo (Norway)

Elderly people at village level in Botswana (p. 243-261)

The paper presents demographic and social data from an in-depth study of the situation of elderly people in a village in Botswana. Botswana is undergoing rapid economic and social change and this change also affects the elderly part of the population. While younger people migrate to urban areas, the elderly are to a large extent left behind in the villages, often with responsibility for caring for small grandchildren.

We found that the majority of elderly people in the study village are women. The educational level of the elderly people of both sexes is low but the majority have undergone the traditional initiation schools, Bojale and Bogwera. All households are influenced by modernization in that they need cash for survival. They depend to a large extent on the support of their grandchildren for survival, a support which is not always given. (BOTSWANA, AGED, RURAL ENVIRONMENT, SOCIAL CHANGE)

97.44.20 - English - Gebremariam WOLDEMICAEL, Demography Unit, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden)

Demographic situation in Eritrea (p. 262-271)

This paper gives estimates of the following, demographic indicators for Eritrea: population size, annual growth rate, age and sex composition, fertility, infant, and child mortality. Brief background sections place the demographic characteristics in a broader perspective. The data used in the analysis of fertility and mortality are taken from sample surveys conducted after independence. Other figures are obtained from government and non-government reports. Indirect techniques were employed to analyze the fertility and mortality rates. Results indicate that the total population of Eritrea in 1993 was roughly 3.5 million. The average annual rate of population growth is found to be about 3%. Children fourteen years old or younger are estimated to be about 46% of the total population. Only 4% of Eritreans are 65 years of age or older. The findings also reveal that fertility rates in Eritrea are high. Women have on average about 7.0 children. The findings further indicate an infant mortality of 112 and an under-five mortality of 208 deaths per 1,000 live births. Given the poor socioeconomic situation of the country, these rates, especially the infant mortality rate, are considered to be underestimates. Further research is therefore needed to ascertain the prevailing situation of Eritrea. (ERITREA, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES)

97.44.21 - English - Katarina LINDAHL, International Affairs, RFSU, Stockholm (Sweden)

After Cairo and before (and after) Beijing: Sexual and reproductive health as a part of the empowerment of teenage girls and women (p. 272-283)

Empowerment of women in the perspective of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) are dealt with in this article. The themes of the Cairo and Beijing conferences are related and the discussions and conflicts regarding the SRH field commented on. The Cairo conference was a step forward seen from women's aspects -- for issues concerning sexual and reproductive health. (WOMEN'S STATUS, WOMEN'S EMANCIPATION, PUBLIC HEALTH, CONFERENCES)

97.44.22 - English - Beatrice MORING, Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Cambridge (R.-U.)

The regulation of fertility in pre-industrial populations: A local study from eighteenth century Finland (p. 284-294)

The crude birth rate in Finland in the eighteenth century was more than 40 per thousand. At the same time there was considerable regional diversity. This study of a coastal population in southwestern Finland reveals that the fertility was well below that of the country as a whole and as low or even lower that that recorded for neighboring countries. A more detailed study of families in Houtskär indicates that the pattern of fertility varied according to the socioeconomic standing of the family head. Differences in age at first marriage were a critical determinant of these variations but other important factors were birth spacing and the timing of the last birth. A conscious attempt was made to limit family size. (FINLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FAMILY PLANNING, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS)

97.44.23 - English - Veijo NOTKOLA, Population Research Unit, University of Helsinki (Finland)

Parish records from Namibia 1925-1990 - An attempt to analyze fertility and mortality in Ovamboland (p. 295-305)

The general aim of the study is to describe and to try to understand the population development (mortality and fertility) in Ovamboland in North-Namibia. Parish records are used as a primary source. The family reconstruction method based on marriage cohorts has been used. The data includes about 7,000 marriages and 27,000 children. Administrative and missionary records were used especially in interpretation of research results. According to the results both a clear decline and increase in fertility have occurred during 1930-1980 although fertility has been all the time close to natural fertility. Mortality declined in the 1950s in Ovamboland. The main cause for the mortality decline was probably the health care system built by the missionaries. At the same time, however, there was no more bad famines in the area during the 1950s and in general the nutrition level also improved during the 1950s. (NAMIBIA, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FAMILY RECONSTITUTION, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, MORTALITY TRENDS)

97.44.24 - English - Anna LUNDBERG, Department of Historical Demography, Umeå University, Umeå (Sweden)

Health and social consequences: Linkages between parish registers and patient records as a source in social medical history (p. 306-318)

Venereal diseases in the Sundsvall area in Sweden are studied in this article. By using linkages between parish records and patient records it has been possible to find out what happened to a patient after the admission to a venereal ward. The linkage gives us enough information to form life and family biographies for these individuals. By investigating the life courses of 145 linked individuals it has been possible to give a closer presentation of the preliminary conclusions and problems of this research. The major problem has to do with their mobility. A life and family biography is truncated when the individual leaves the district of Sundsvall.

The individuals of the study were admitted to a venereal ward in the midst of their adult life. While carefully paying attention to the linked individuals' tendency to leave the Sundsvall area, we have studied their age distribution rates for certain events in their lives and reached a few preliminary conclusions about the sample group. Even among those who stayed in the district for quite a long while, the marriage rates were quite low. Some of these individuals had up to eight children, but the average fertility among the sample group seemed to be quite low. Because more than 60 percent of the children born within the sample group died before the age of 15, and a very high percentage of these died before their first birthday, seems to be a convincing proof that venereal disease had an important impact on the patients' lives. The article shows that linkages between patient records and parish registrars can help medical historians and historical demographers to understand the way in which disease and medical care affected peoples' lives in past time. (SWEDEN, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, MATCHING)

97.44.25 - English - Robert KELLY, Amsthospitalet i Vordingborg (Denmark)

An evolutionary perspective on population growth (p. 319-327)

This article is a preliminary attempt to evaluate the effect that evolution has on fertility. First, the conditions necessary for an evolutionary effect are discussed, the most important condition being the existence of fertility-enhancing traits (not necessarily genetic) which can be passed from parent to child. Next, two mathematical models are discussed which give insight into the relation between evolution and fertility. The models yield a crude approximation relating the correlation (r) between number of siblings and number of children born to women in a given population to a subsequent evolution-related rise in fertility in the same population over one generation. The approximation is evaluated using the value of r as determined from a 1981 study sample of Swedish-born women. Finally, the possibilities of long-term fertility predictions and control of population growth are discussed. (SWEDEN, EVOLUTION, FERTILITY, FERTILITY TRENDS, MATHEMATICAL MODELS)

97.44.26 - English - Juha M. ALHO, Department of Statistics, University of Joensuu (Finland)

A note on the use of anticipatory covariates in event history analysis (p. 328-332)

Anticipatory covariates are regressors whose values become known only after the value of the dependent variable has been ascertained. Hoem (1995) has given an informal discussion concerning the possible pitfalls in the use of such covariates in event history analysis. This paper complements Hoem's findings by using simple linear regression as the framework. It turns out that complex patterns of bias may be introduced by the use of anticipatory covariates. In all cases it may not be possible to guarantee that the magnitude of the bias remains small. Therefore, extreme care is needed in interpreting results from studies that have relied on anticipatory covariates. (METHODOLOGY, EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS, INDEPENDENT VARIABLES, BIAS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS)

97.44.27 - English - Britta HOEM, Statistics Sweden, Stockholm (Sweden)

The social meaning of the age at second birth for third-birth fertility: A methodological note on the need to sometimes respecify an intermediate variable (p. 333-339)

In hazard regressions for a number of countries, including Sweden, more highly educated women have been found to have higher third-birth rates than other women. In this paper we show that this positive educational gradient disappears when age at second birth is respecified in order to better catch what age at second birth means to women at the various levels of education. Instead of a conventional age grouping that is the same for all educational categories, we suggest that the age factor should be defined so as to reflect what is normal and unusual childbearing behavior for each educational level separately. Considerations of a similar nature can be equally important in other contexts. (METHODOLOGY, AGE GROUPS, BIRTH ORDER, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)

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