POPULATION BULLETIN OF ESCWA

Jordan (Amman) 27

1995 - NUMBER 43

97.27.1 - English - Arjune L. ADLAKHA, Kevin G. KINSELLA, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington D.C. (U.S.A.), and Marwan KHAWAJA, The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, Ramallah, West Bank (Israel)

Demography of the Palestinian population with special emphasis on the occupied territories (p. 5-28)

Since the Palestinian-Israeli peace accord of September 1993, an essential need emerges to establish baseline information on the size, distribution and demographic characteristics of the Palestinian population in the occupied territories, which include the entire area of the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Further more, it becomes important for Palestinian planners to know the size of the Palestinian populations in other countries, because the 1993 accord provides "permanent" but currently non-resident population the legal right to return to the occupied territories and establish residence. The purpose of this paper is threefold: (i) to provide time series of the Palestinian Arab population size from 1950 to 1995 in 16 countries in the Middle East and North Africa; (ii) to present detailed current and historical information on the size, composition and components of population change (fertility, mortality and migration) for the Palestinian population living in the occupied territories; and (iii) to assess future growth prospects of the Arab population living in the occupied territories (WEST BANK, WESTERN ASIA, NORTHERN AFRICA, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES, ETHNIC GROUPS)

97.27.2 - English - Muhammad Ali AL-RAMMADHAN, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Techno-Economics Division (Kuweit)

New population policy in Kuwait: The quest for a balance in the population composition (p. 29-53)

The population composition in Kuwait has been a vital concern on the national level since the 1980s. The fundamental concern is the high percentage of expatriates in the population. Many national plans aimed at establishing a balanced population composition have had little success. However, the Gulf crisis provided an opportunity for Kuwait to increase the Kuwaitis percentage in the total population. This study investigates the development of population policy in Kuwait following the Gulf crisis, reveals the changes induced by the post-Gulf-war population policy, and provides an attempt to assess the policy's success. The study concludes that despite the new population policy, expatriates continue to make up the majority of the population. The problem continues to be a challenge for policy makers. There appear to be new levels of sincerity, explicitness and seriousness of purpose in Kuwait's new population policy, but there have not been many real changes in direction from earlier policies. Short of closing the door to expatriates, effective policy options for increasing the Kuwaiti share in the country's total population are limited. (KUWEIT, POPULATION POLICY, POPULATION COMPOSITION, FOREIGNERS)

97.27.3 - English - Hassan M. YOUSIF, University of Botswana (Botswana), and Ahmad A. HAMMOUDA, UN-ESCWA, Amman (Jordan)

Alternative population projection scenarios by education attainment for Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia (p. 55-98)

This paper presents alternative population projections for Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia using the scenario approach developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Its primary objective is to show how education attainment and policies influence the future population patterns in these countries. These projections are important for social development planning and for integrating population parameters into development projects and strategies. Moreover, many individuals and organizations need population projections to plan business and commercial activities as well as marketing strategies for their products; population projections are useful in real estate and several other activities. This demand has been heightened by the recent upsurge in environment and energy issues and changes in levels of consumption and styles of living. Section I gives a brief presentation of the scenario approach. Sections II and III show fertility and mortality conditions in Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia. The main objective here is to provide an understanding of the past and current demographic situation and its implications for future population trends in these countries (section IV). Section V presents the stands of Governments on population policies and in shaping future population patterns. We present our assumptions, scenario setting and projection results in sections VI and VII. (EGYPT, SUDAN, TUNISIA, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, LEVELS OF EDUCATION)

97.27.4 - English - Harb HUNAITI, Population Studies Department, University of Jordan, Amman (Jordan)

Housing demand in Jordan: A case-study (p. 99-111)

The objectives of this paper are to investigate the following issues: (a) the relative importance of determinants of housing market behavior in urban sector in Jordan; (b) the elasticity of the determinants of housing market behavior; (c) the relationships between urban size and elasticity of determinants of housing market. The source of data for this paper emanate from a special housing survey conducted by the Department of Statistics for the Ministry of Planning. The sample consists of 1 758 households covering the main urban centres in Jordan. Loglinear function in context of stepwise multiple regression was used in this study. The main findings are: (1) housing price, household income and household size are the most important determinants of housing demand in all urban centres in Jordan; (2) housing price elasticity is generally small, ranging from -0.159 for other urban centres to 0.229 for Amman. It seems that city size has some influence on price elasticity, which increase with the size of the city; (3) the household income with respect to housing demand is inelastic for all urban centres, but it increases with size of the urban centre. Thus, housing demand in large urban centres is more sensitive to household income than smaller centres; (4) the household size, age of household head and transport cost in view of the hosing demand are highly inelastic, which indicates that the housing demand is unaffected by changes in these demographic variables (household size and age) and transport cost. Excluding transport cost, urban size has positive influence on the elasticity of household size and the age of the household head. (JORDAN, HOUSING, DEMAND, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, CITY SIZE)

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